Manglecito Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for our local patch.

To be straight with you, the next week and a half are going to be a real struggle. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with next to no surf energy. From now until the end of July, the only option is Manglecito, but the numbers are pretty sad. The water is running at 79°F which is way warmer than usual for this time of year – a solid 9°F above the norm – so at least a dip won’t be cold, but don’t expect to get wet for the waves.

For the first few days, we’re talking tiny, weak swells. Sunday morning the 19th has a 1ft bump from the north with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a measly 24 – that’s barely a ripple. Winds are cross-off from the south at 9 mph, so the surface is clean, but there’s just no push. The swell is too small and short-period to offer anything worth paddling for. The same story repeats Monday and Tuesday with even smaller heights, dropping to 0.3ft and periods all over the shop. Wednesday the 22nd has a bit of a pulse, but still only 1ft and 8 seconds – energy at 22 – still poor. From Thursday the 23rd right through to Sunday the 27th morning, it flatlines completely. Zero energy. No swell. The board stays in the car.

There is a tiny flicker of life on Monday the 27th morning with a 1ft north-west swell, period of 10 seconds, and energy at 15 – but it’s still graded as poor. Tuesday and Wednesday the 28th and 29th offer similar 1ft north-west pulses, with periods building to 12 seconds on Wednesday morning, but the energy stays low – between 16 and 21. The wind is still cross-off, so the surface is clean, but the waves are just too weak to get excited about.

The first real standout comes on Thursday the 30th of July. The morning and afternoon both see a 1ft north-west swell with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 30 – still low, but it’s the best we’ve seen in a while. Winds are light and cross-off from the south-southeast at 6 mph, so it’s clean. The swell direction from the north-west matches the optimum for Manglecito, which is a reef and point setup that will handle the longer period pretty well. It’s still tiny, but if you’re desperate for a glide, this is the best window in the first week.

Then we get to the very end of the run. Friday the 31st of July is the best on offer in the whole 16-day outlook. The morning shows a 1ft north-west swell, period of 12 seconds, and energy at 54. The afternoon improves to a 13-second period, with energy at 56. Winds are cross-off from the south at 9 to 12 mph, keeping the surface clean. This is a proper little groundswell pulse – that 12 to 13-second period means better shaped waves and more energy on the face. Manglecito, being a reef and point, will actually make something of it. The only catch? Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others with the same idea. It’s small, but it’s the most promising day of the stretch.

Saturday the 1st of August morning has a similar 1ft, 13-second north-west swell, energy at 57 – the highest of the whole period – and it’s actually graded as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” That’s the only time the grade is above poor. Winds are light cross-off. Take it or leave it.

After that, it drops off again. Sunday the 2nd afternoon has a 1ft, 12-second north-west pulse with energy at 53, but it’s still poor, and Monday the 3rd is flat.

So, the honest truth: there’s no real swell in this window. The standout is Friday the 31st of July and Saturday the 1st of August, with that tiny, clean, long-period north-west groundswell. If you’ve got a log or a fish, Manglecito might give you a few fun ones. But for anyone expecting a proper wave, you’re going to be disappointed. The whole setup is so small and weak that it honestly looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, if the wind picks up.

Stay patient, mates. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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