Manglecito Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get real about the next 16 days at Manglecito. I’ve looked at the numbers, and I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s a bleak stretch. There’s no sugarcoating it. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out period of flatness or near-flatness, with only tiny, weak pulses of energy that just aren’t going to deliver anything worth getting wet for.

The first sign of any wave energy doesn’t even show up until Tuesday afternoon, July 28th, and even then, it’s pathetic. We’re talking a 0.3 ft ripple from the NW with a period of 12 seconds. The combined energy is a measly 11. That’s not surf, that’s a lake tremor. The wind is a cross-off from the SSE at 12 mph, which would keep it clean, but there’s nothing to surf. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is a massive 10° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s really unusual, but it doesn’t help the waves.

Wednesday the 29th is more of the same. A tiny 0.7 ft swell from the north, period dropping to a weak 8 seconds, with energy at just 5. The wind is a light cross-shore, creating a bit of cross-chop, but honestly, it’s irrelevant. This pattern of “poor surf conditions” just repeats day after day. We get a few more of these little 0.7 ft and 1.0 ft pulses from the NW or N, with periods between 8 and 11 seconds, and energy levels that never crack 20. The wind is mostly cross-off from the SSE, keeping the surface clean, but the swell just isn’t there.

Then, from Saturday, August 2nd, right through to Friday, August 7th, it’s a total dead zone. Absolutely zero swell energy in the water. The wind is still blowing, but it’s a complete blank. That’s a full six days of nothing.

We get a little flicker of life on Saturday, August 8th, with a 0.7 ft north swell, 8-second period, and a combined energy of 6. Again, the wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it’s messy, but it’s not like it matters. This tiny, inconsistent dribble continues through to Wednesday, August 12th, with the same story: 0.7 ft to 1.0 ft, short period, energy in the single digits or low teens. The best pulse in the whole outlook is on Tuesday morning, August 11th, with a 1.0 ft swell from the north, 8-second period, and a combined energy of 12. That’s the “highlight,” and it’s a sad one.

Look, Manglecito is a reef and point break that’s fairly consistent and set up for a north swell, but there’s just no power in the water. The optimum swell direction is from the north, and we get a few hints of that, but the size is laughable. For a spot that’s advanced and fairly exposed, this is a total write-off. There’s nothing here for beginners, nothing for experts, nothing for anyone. The setup looks more interesting for a light wind kite session than a paddle surf, to be honest.

We’ve got a 16-day window with a massive gap of almost no rideable waves. It’s a tough one, but it happens. The good news is, Manglecito is a fairly consistent spot, so it tends not to stay this poor for long. Forecasts can change. But for now, I’d save the wax and find something else to do.

Rusty.

Read more