Manglecito Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Well, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: this outlook for Manglecito is a tough one. We’re looking at a 16-day window where the surf just doesn’t show up in any meaningful way for a paddle. The first proper reading comes in on Thursday July 16th, but it’s a real struggle.

The overall pattern is flat and weak. The combined energy of all swells here is tiny, barely cracking double digits on the best days, and most of the time it’s a big fat zero. The water is running at 79°, which is a whopping 8° warmer than normal for this time of year — that’s very unusual, and it’s the only thing that’s out of the ordinary around here.

From Thursday the 16th through to Wednesday the 22nd, the swell is almost non-existent, with heights barely reaching 1.0 ft. The wind is a constant cross-off from the SSE or S, blowing at 9 to 16 mph, so the surface is clean, but there’s simply nothing to ride. A tiny pulse shows up on the morning of Sunday the 19th, with a 1 ft north swell at 9 seconds, but the energy is still pitiful (24). That’s as good as it gets in that first week, and it’s still not worth a paddle.

Then we hit a long gap. From Saturday the 18th of July afternoon right through to the morning of Sunday the 26th, there’s no surf at all — just flat, clean water. That’s over a week of nothing.

On the 22nd, there’s a whisper of a longer-period groundswell from the WNW at 18 seconds, but the height is only 0.7 ft, so the energy (52) is still weak. It’s a tease. The same happens again on the 27th and 28th, with a slightly better 1.0 ft NW swell at 13 seconds, giving an energy of 32 in the afternoon of the 27th. That’s the best energy in the whole outlook, but it’s still tiny. For a reef and point setup like Manglecito, that long-period swell would usually be a good thing, but there’s just not enough water moving.

Honestly, there’s nothing here that stands out as a recommendation. The conditions are clean, but the swell is too small for any real surfing. If you’re a kite surfer, the consistent cross-off wind and clean surface might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, this is a blank run. It’s one of those periods where the area just goes quiet, and forecasts can change, but right now, there’s no reason to get excited.

Rusty.

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