Makaha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a classic Oahu west side run here at Makaha, but honestly, the next week and a half is a tough one for paddle surfing. The models are showing a lot of energy, but the wind is just not cooperating for clean conditions.

Right now, the water is sitting at 69°F, which is a notable 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual warmth.

We start this Saturday morning, the 22nd of August, with some small 3ft swell coming from the south at a short 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 191, and with a cross-on breeze, it’s creating poor surf conditions. The wind is light, but the direction is wrong. The afternoon drops to a tiny 1ft, that’s borderline flat.

Sunday the 23rd through the 27th of August is a real struggle. The swell is tiny, between 1ft and 2ft, with a persistent cross or cross-on wind from the south. The combined energy stays low, between 150 and 478. It’s just small, choppy, and not worth paddling out for. There’s a long gap here with no real surf on offer.

Then, on Friday the 28th of August, things start to get a bit more interesting. The swell picks up to 6ft in the morning, building to 7ft in the afternoon, coming from the southwest with a period of 15-16 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 1651 in the morning and 1952 in the afternoon – that’s strong wave energy. However, the wind is still a cross-on breeze, and the conditions are described as marginal. This is a big, long-period groundswell, but it’s going to be choppy and messy. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, honestly.

Saturday the 29th of August offers a brief window of hope. The morning shows a 6ft southwest swell with a 14-second period and an offshore wind from the west-southwest (6 mph). This is the standout of the entire forecast. The combined energy is strong at 1333. That offshore wind at Makaha is a major positive, meaning it could get clean over the reef. The tide conditions are questionable, but this is the best chance for a proper session. The afternoon turns back to a cross-on breeze, so get it early.

Sunday the 30th of August through Monday the 31st sees the swell easing slightly, with 5ft to 6ft, but the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, keeping the quality poor to marginal.

The first week of September is a mixed bag. Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd have 5ft to 6ft south swell, but it’s short-period (9 seconds) and the wind is onshore or cross-on. The combined energy is moderate (621-884). It’s not great.

Thursday the 3rd of September shows a new pulse of southwest swell, 5ft to 5ft, with a very long 18-19 second period. The combined energy is very strong (1831-1873). This is a powerful groundswell, but it’s coming with a cross-on wind. For a reef break like Makaha, that long period will create proper lines, but the chop will ruin it. This is another one that’s promising but less certain unless the wind changes.

The outlook fades out from the 4th of September onward, with the swell dropping below 5ft and the wind staying cross or cross-on, leading to poor surf conditions.

So, the best bet in this whole 16-day window is the Saturday morning of the 29th of August. It’s the only time we see a clean offshore wind with a solid 6ft southwest swell. It’s the one to circle on the calendar. Makaha can get crowded, so be ready for that.

Rusty.

Read more