Makaha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what’s shaping up for the next couple of weeks at Makaha.

First off, the water is running a very unusual 5° warmer than normal for this time of year, coming in at 70° – that's a proper tropical bath. Don't expect that to last forever, but while it's here, it feels special.

The pattern is a long, drawn-out run of marginal, choppy, and just plain average surf. We've got swell on the way, but the wind and conditions are going to be fighting us most of the time. Honestly, there isn't a true standout session in this entire 16-day forecast; it's a real waiting game. The first few days look pretty ordinary with a mixed bag of cross and cross-onshore breezes.

Let’s start with Wednesday the 12th. We get an initial pulse of swell – 5ft from the SSW at 12 seconds, but that's a cross-on breeze from the SSW at 6 mph, bringing in light wind ripples. Combined swell energy is moderate at 617. It's a bit messy. The better bet might be Thursday the 13th morning, with a cleaner 3ft SW groundswell at a long 19 seconds. That's a glassy cross-shore breeze from the SSE at 6 mph, which will keep it clean, and the energy is higher at 866. That long period will be proper groundswell, so the sets will be well-spaced. For an exposed reef like Makaha, that can work nicely on the right tide.

The middle of the run, from the 14th through the 17th, is a series of 4ft to 4ft SSW swells, but the wind stays stubbornly cross or cross-onshore from the S or SSE, blowing at 9 to 12 mph. It's going to be a constant battle with cross-chop. Energy ranges from moderate 653 to 1094. It's ridable, but nothing to write home about.

We get a bit of a spike on the 18th and 19th. Tuesday afternoon the 18th sees a jump to 6ft from the SSW, but it’s accompanied by a moderate cross-onshore breeze and a short period of just 8 seconds. That combination (711 energy) is likely just wind slop. Then Wednesday the 19th afternoon pushes up to 6ft from the S at 10 seconds with a stronger 16 mph SSE cross-shore wind. The energy jumps significantly to 1258 (strong wave energy), but again, it's cross-shore with a chop. At 6ft to 6ft, this is getting into intermediate territory; it's not beginner-friendly but not a heavy expert zone either.

By the third week, from the 21st onwards, the swell drops right off. Friday the 21st morning has a small 4ft S swell with a clean offshore breeze from the SW at 6 mph, which is promising for shape, but the period is only 9 seconds and the energy is low (325). After that, the surf fades into the ankle-to-knee high range (1ft to 2ft) through the 24th. It's not completely flat, but it's flat enough to leave the board at home for a few days. There are some brief upticks late on the 26th and 27th, but those are very small, short-period wind swells with poor conditions.

Bottom line: If you’re itching for a paddle, Thursday morning the 13th is your best window for clean, glassy lines on the long period SW groundswell. The other days are a battle with the wind for average waves. For the second week, the outlook is grim – small, wind-affected, and inconsistent. It’s one of those stretches where you check the forecast more than you check the waves.

Rusty.

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