Makaha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this 16-day window for Makaha is a tough one. The overall pattern is dominated by a long-period SW groundswell, but the wind is almost always working against us, making it a real grind for anything clean. The water is sitting at a very unusual 68°, which is 7° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a proper anomaly, feels like bathwater.

The first real nod towards a surf comes on Wednesday, September 9th, but it’s a marginal one. Wednesday morning we’ve got a 3 ft SW swell with a super long 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy, with a combined energy of 939 (moderate power). The problem is the wind is a light cross-on from the SSW at 6 mph, which just messes with the face. It’s not terrible, but it’s not clean. The afternoon gets worse with a stronger cross-on chopping it up.

Thursday, September 10th, is similar. The morning has a 4 ft SW swell at 15 seconds, but again that cross-on wind from the SW at 3 mph, though light, is still onshore. The combined energy drops to 774. It’s still marginal. The afternoon stays cross-shore and choppy.

Friday, September 11th, finally gives us a little glimmer. The morning has a 3 ft SW swell with a 14-second period, and for the first time the wind is light and onshore from the WSW at 6 mph. That’s a clean, glassy face. The combined energy is 624. This is the best looking session of the whole run – but it’s still small. Break: Makaha, a very consistent reef, though it’s exposed and often crowded, so expect company. The crowd profile is ‘often’ so you’ll be sharing the takeoff zone. For a beginner, the 3 ft is fine. For a ripper, it’s a fun little runner on a long period SW swell.

After that, it’s a long, painful stretch. From Saturday, September 12th, right through to Thursday, September 17th, the surf is poor to marginal. The wind is either cross-on or cross-shore, and the swell stays small – 3 ft to 5 ft. The period drops to 8 seconds or less on the 12th and 13th, which is just weak, short-period chop. The combined energy plummets to the 374-446 range. Not worth paddling out.

There’s a small pulse of energy on Monday, September 14th, with a 3 ft SW swell at 18 seconds, but the cross-on wind kills it. The same story repeats through the middle of the month.

The only other flicker of hope comes on Saturday, September 19th, and Sunday, September 20th. Saturday morning has a light cross-on at 6 mph with a 3 ft SW swell at 12 seconds, combined energy 553. It’s marginal. But Sunday morning, September 20th, is the standout of the second week. The wind is light and onshore from the WSW at 6 mph, with a 3 ft SW swell at 12 seconds, combined energy 406. It’s small, but it’ll be glassy. That’s the only other clean window in the whole 16 days.

So, the best on offer is Friday morning, September 11th, with the cleanest conditions and the longest period swell. Sunday morning, September 20th, is a distant second. The rest is a write-off. If you’re a kiter, the consistent cross-shore and cross-on winds on the bigger days (like the 5 ft days on the 12th and 13th) might look more interesting than the paddle surfing. But for a surfer, it’s patience time.

Rusty.

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