Makaha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long, hard look at what's coming our way for Makaha.

The overall picture for the next couple of weeks is a bit of a mixed bag. We've got some pulses of SW groundswell trying to push through, but the wind is going to be a persistent issue, and the models are calling it "marginal" for most of the run. It’s a real test of patience.

The first real chance of a wave starts Saturday morning, the 15th. We're looking at a 4ft SW swell with a solid 14-second period, giving us a moderate wave energy of 739. The water at Makaha is sitting at 70°F, which is a whopping 9° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a tropical bath, but it doesn't make the waves any better. The problem is a cross-shore wind that’s already creating a slight cross-chop, so it's not going to be clean. The afternoon gets worse with the wind picking up, making it a real write-off.

Sunday the 16th offers a glimmer of hope. The morning session has a 4ft SW swell, period around 13 seconds, and the wind drops to almost nothing from the SSE. That "slight air" and light cross-shore means the surface will be glassy. For a few hours, it'll be the best you'll find all weekend, but it's still a "marginal" call, so don't expect perfection.

Monday the 17th is a write-off with moderate cross-shore winds and a messy sea state. Then we get a bit of a power-up for Tuesday the 18th. The morning swell jumps to 6ft from the SW, with a period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy hits a strong 1231. By the afternoon, it's 7ft from the SSW with a massive 3031 energy reading. That's a lot of water moving around. But the wind is still a cross-shore at 16 mph, making it choppy. This is a powerful swell, but it's not for the faint of heart, especially with that wind. The 7ft afternoon session is pushing into territory that's only for experienced surfers.

The rest of the first week stays pretty average. The swell sticks around but the wind never really cleans up, and that "marginal" tag sticks to everything. The best of this stretch is arguably the early morning on Saturday the 22nd, where we have a tiny 3ft S swell, but the wind is light and cross-onshore. It's knee-high at best.

Now, looking into the second week, there's a more promising pulse on the horizon. For the morning of Friday the 28th, we see a 4ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period, and the energy is a strong 1307. The wind is light from the SSW, so it's only a light cross-onshore. That’s a long-period groundswell, which is perfect for a reef like Makaha. It should handle the slight wind much better than a beach break would. This is the standout of the entire forecast: a proper, clean, long-period SW groundswell. The Saturday morning the 29th will also offer a solid 6ft SW swell, but the wind is a little more on it, so the Friday morning is the one to circle on your calendar. It’s a bit of a wait, but it could be worth it.

So, to sum it up: the next week is a grind with wind and messy conditions. The one moment of clarity is Sunday morning the 16th. But the real hope is that Friday morning the 28th, which looks like the best session on offer by a long shot. I'll be waiting for that one.

Rusty.

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