Makaha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window to look at, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The surf is there, but it’s never really firing on all cylinders. The first good wave shows up on Friday the 4th, and from there, it’s a long, drawn-out run of pretty average conditions.

The overall pattern is a steady, moderate-sized swell from the SW, but the wind is a real pain. It’s mostly a cross or cross-onshore breeze, which is going to keep things bumpy and a bit messy. There’s no real standout day where everything lines up perfectly, but if I had to pick the best of the bunch, it’d be early on.

Makaha (Oahu) is your only spot in the game. It’s a very consistent reef break, so it’s always worth a look. The water feels about average for this time of year, nothing wild happening temperature-wise. The first few days have the most size. On Friday the 4th morning, we’ve got a solid 5 ft SW swell rolling in. The period is a very long 16 seconds, which is a proper groundswell – that energy is real. The combined swell energy is moderate at 1363, so there’s some push. The wind is a light cross-shore from the SSE at 6 mph, which is actually passable. It’s not glassy, but it’s manageable. The caveat here is that long-period swell can be a bit fat and straight at a beach break, but this is a reef, so it should wrap in nicely. The water temp is close to normal, so no surprises there.

Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are similar, but the swell drops a little each day – 5 ft then 4 ft – and the wind stays light but cross-on, so the quality is marginal. The energy is still moderate (between 722 and 833), but the choppy texture is a letdown. The crowds will be a factor here; it’s a popular spot, and with conditions being just okay, it’ll be a battle for the clean ones.

By Monday the 7th, the swell drops under three feet, and the energy is starting to fade. The wind swings more onshore, and the whole thing just gets weedy. From Tuesday the 8th right through to the end of the second week, the surf is a constant struggle. The swell stays in the 3 ft to 4 ft range, but the period drops to 8 seconds from the 12th onwards. That’s a short-period, wind-affected mess. The combined energy drops to weak three-digit numbers, like 491 down to 313, which tells you there’s nothing in the water. The wind is almost always cross or cross-on, keeping the surface choppy. Honestly, the second week is a write-off. There’s a big gap of poor surf from around the 11th to the 16th, where you’re looking at flat, weak waves and bad wind. For the later part of the outlook, say around the 18th and 19th of September, there’s a tiny flicker of 4 ft swell, but it’s the same story – short period and onshore wind. It’s a no-go.

If you’re kiting, the wind is light to moderate, so it’s not great for that either. For paddle surfing, you’re looking at the Friday the 4th morning as the best option. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only time the size and the period are in your favour. The rest is just a waiting game.

Rusty.

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