Makaha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this forecast for Makaha is a real mixed bag. The swell energy is mostly moderate, but the wind is a persistent cross-onshore or cross-shore, which is going to put a chop on the face most days. The real problem is the quality: nearly every session is rated as marginal, with poor or questionable conditions. There’s no standout, clean session in the first week or so.

Let’s start with a look at the water. The first entry on Thursday, July 9th, shows the water temperature at 69°F with a massive anomaly of 6°F warmer than usual. That’s very unusual—the ocean is cooking out there, much warmer than it should be for this time of year.

Makaha is a reef break, very consistent, and exposed to the swell. It works best on a SW optimum swell direction, which is what we’re mostly getting, but the wind is our enemy. On Thursday afternoon, July 9th, we get a 3ft SSW swell at 16 seconds—that’s a long-period groundswell, which usually means decent shape and energy, but the wind is a cross-onshore 9 mph, creating a gentle cross-onshore chop. The combined energy is 812 (moderate). The score is a 0, so I can’t call it.

Friday morning, July 10th, the swell picks up to 5ft from the SW, period 14 seconds, with a light cross-onshore breeze of 6 mph. The energy is 857 (moderate). It’s still marginal. Friday afternoon is a 0 score. Saturday, July 11th, through to Sunday, July 12th, is the same story: 4ft to 4ft swell, light cross-onshore winds, scores of 1 or 2. The energy drops a bit to 693 and 595. It’s just not clean.

Monday, July 13th, the swell is 5ft from the SSW, period 15 seconds, energy 906 (moderate). Still cross-onshore. The whole first week is a washout for quality. We’ve got a gap of no good surf from the start until the end of the third week, basically.

Now, let’s look at the second week. The pattern continues. Tuesday, July 14th, Wednesday, July 15th, and Thursday, July 16th all have 4ft to 5ft swell, light cross-shore or cross-onshore wind, and energy between 544 and 828. Scores are still 1 or 2. Friday, July 17th, is similar. Saturday, July 18th, the swell jumps to 6ft from the SW, period 15 seconds, energy 1265 (moderate to strong). The wind is cross-shore at 12 mph, which is a moderate breeze and a cross-chop. Score is still only 2. Sunday, July 19th, brings 7ft SW swell, period 13 seconds, energy 1559 (strong). That’s getting into expert territory over 8ft, but it’s 7ft—big for a beginner. The wind is cross-onshore, light, score 2. Not the one.

The best of the whole 16-day window is likely Wednesday, July 23rd, late in the forecast. On Thursday afternoon, July 23rd, we get a 7ft S swell, period 9 seconds—short period, so it’s windswell, not as powerful. But the wind is glassy, from the WSW at 3 mph, and the conditions are “glassy.” The score is 3, the highest in the whole run. The energy is 756 (moderate). This is a standout, but it’s a long way off—more than two weeks away. It’s a promising window, but less certain. For a surfer, this is the best bet: clean, glassy conditions on a 7ft swell. The direction is S, which is not the optimal SW, but the glassy wind makes up for it. Crowds at Makaha are “often,” so expect company.

The rest of the period—Monday, July 20th, has a 4ft SW swell with an onshore wind from the WSW at 3 mph, score 2. Tuesday, July 21st, sees 5ft SSW swell, light cross-onshore, score 3. Wednesday, July 22nd, brings 8ft S swell with a 9-second period and light cross-onshore wind, energy 2164 (strong to very strong). That’s big, short period, and messy—better for experts or maybe kite surfing. The final day, Friday, July 24th, has a 6ft S swell, onshore wind, score 1.

So, if you’re waiting for a clean session, hold out for the afternoon of July 23rd. That glassy window with a 7ft S swell is your best bet, but it’s a long-range call. The rest is mostly choppy and marginal. The combined energy is moderate to strong, but the wind kills it.

Rusty.

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