Makaha Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's coming up for Makaha.

First off, the water is *much warmer than normal* for this time of year—we're talking about 70°F, which is a big 9° above the long-term average. That's pretty unusual and means you'll be comfy in just boardshorts or a spring suit if you're used to cooler water.

Now, the honest truth? The next few days are a bit of a struggle. From Tuesday the 11th right through to the end of the first week, the surf is pretty marginal. It’s not a total write-off, but you’ll be working for it. The swell is mostly coming from the SSW, around 4ft to 5ft, with a long period of 14 to 15 seconds—that's got some real energy behind it (combined energy around 994 to 1002), but the wind is cross-on, which messes with the surface quality. It’s going to be a bit bumpy and choppy, not the clean, lined-up waves Makaha can serve up. The best call in this early stretch might be Thursday morning the 13th—the swell drops to 3ft but the period stretches to 19 seconds, a real long-period groundswell. That's a special kind of energy, but it's also a tricky one. With that sort of period, the waves can break pretty straight on a beach break, but at a reef like Makaha, it can actually produce some incredibly well-shaped, powerful lines. The wind is cross-shore, so it's not perfect, but it's the most interesting session of the first week.

The middle of the period, from the 17th onwards, looks more interesting but also more challenging. Monday the 17th sees a spike in swell from the south, reaching 8ft. That's a serious step up in size, and the combined energy jumps to 2475—that's a lot of ocean power. The period is short at 9 seconds though, so it'll be a bit lumpy and less organized. That size is pushing into expert-only territory, and with cross-shore winds, it's going to be a handful. Tuesday the 18th morning shapes up a bit better with the swell still at 7ft, and the wind goes light and cross-on, keeping it a little cleaner. Still, the short period (9 seconds) means it'll be a bit of a messy, powerful beast.

The real standout, the one to keep an eye on, is Wednesday the 19th morning. The wind finally swings offshore from the SW at just 3 mph. That's as glassy as it gets. The swell is 6ft from the SSW with a 9-second period, so the power is there but the shape will be a bit sectiony. Still, with offshore winds, Makaha’s exposed reef can turn that into some smooth, hollow waves. That’s your best window for a clean, high-quality session, even if the swell direction isn't a perfect match for the optimum SW.

After that, the swell slowly fades through the 20th, and we hit a real lull from the 21st to the 26th. The waves drop to 2ft or less, and with weak energy (down to 201 or so), it’s going to be flat and poor for surfing. The wind stays light but cross-on, so there's just no push. The 24th and 25th see a tiny bump from the south but with a super short period of 7 seconds, it's just messy, unrideable chop. That’s a solid week of waiting it out.

The very end of the outlook, on the 26th, we see a whisper of something—waves back up to 4ft, period at 11 seconds, combined energy at 690. It's still marginal, but it's a sign that the lull might be breaking. Don't hold your breath, but keep an eye on it.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a grind with marginal conditions. The best bet is Wednesday morning the 19th with that offshore wind and overhead swell. The rest of the second week is a flat spell, but the very last day hints at a change. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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