Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get straight into it.

We’ve got a solid, consistent SSW groundswell lining up, but don’t get too excited just yet. The wind is stubbornly out of the southeast for almost the whole run, which means it’s blowing straight across or onshore at our main reef, Keramas. That sets the tone for the next couple of weeks: plenty of energy in the water, but it’s going to be fighting against the breeze.

Thursday, July 30th kicks things off but it’s messy. A 5 ft SSW swell with 15-second period from a hefty 1172 energy reading is there, but that 9 mph cross-onshore wind makes for a choppy surface. The scorecard says it’s marginal, and honestly, it looks like a frustrating paddle for not much reward. Friday and the weekend stay similar – a bit of a drop in swell on Friday to 4 ft, picking back up to 5 ft-5 ft. The water temp is 82°, which is about 2° warmer than average for this time of year, so it’s comfortably tropical, but the surface just won't cooperate. The Saturday afternoon session on August 1st has a bit more grunt at 5 ft, pushing 18 seconds of period and a huge 1676 energy, but the wind still isn’t clean. It’s frustrating – plenty of potential energy (moderate to strong, in that 1000-2000 range) but the delivery is lacking.

Now, if you’re an experienced surfer and you’re willing to battle the chop, the size really starts to build. The first standout I see is Sunday, August 10th. The swell jumps to 8 ft from the SSW, with a 15-second period, pulling in a whopping 2325 energy. More important, the wind drops to just 6 mph. It’s still a cross-onshore direction, but at that speed it’s just light cross-onshore with small wind ripples. We’re looking at much cleaner, more manageable faces, and that’s the best window in the first week. That said, at 8 ft, this is getting into expert territory for the reef.

The real standout, the one you want to circle on your calendar, lands on Friday, August 14th. The swell cranks up to a solid 10 ft from the SSW, with a strong 17-second period. This is a big, powerful groundswell. The combined energy reading? A massive 5859 – that’s seriously strong. The wind is lighter at 6-9 mph and from the SSE, which is a touch better than the persistent SE. While it’s still not glassy offshore, the power of this swell will punch through. This is a big wave day for experts only – 10 ft on a reef is serious. For everyone else, watch from the beach.

Overall, it’s a long run of persistent swell but the wind is the limiting factor. The first week and a half is a fight with the breeze. August 10th is your best bet for cleaner, strong surf in the 8 ft range. The 14th is for the brave and experienced – a real big swell event. The break is Keramas, a consistent, exposed reef. Crowds are "sometimes" an issue, so for that 10th and 14th, expect it to be on.

Rusty.

Read more