Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've been looking at what's coming up for Keramas. To be honest, the forecast for the next 16 days is a bit of a mixed bag. We've got some solid SSW swell on the way, but the wind is the main problem for most of it. The water temp is sitting at 82.2°, which is a full degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year, so you'll be in boardies comfortably.

The first real chance to get a wave starts Friday, July 10th, but the conditions are rough. We've got a solid 5.6ft SSW groundswell (16 second period) pushing in, with a massive 1648 combined energy. The problem is that cross-onshore wind from the ESE at 12 mph is making it choppy and messy. It's a frustrating combo because the swell has real power, but the surface is all chopped up. The rest of the weekend and into the start of the following week is a write-off, with small swell and those same cross-onshore winds ruining any chance of a clean wave.

The next blip of interest comes around Tuesday, July 14th. The swell jumps back up to 5.6ft to 5.9ft from the SSW, with a very long period of 17 to 18 seconds. The energy is high, around 2199 to 2357. This is a proper groundswell, and at Keramas, a reef break, that long period will create some serious, well-shaped barrels. But the caveat is that the wind is still cross-onshore from the SE at 9 mph, which will keep the surface a bit bumpy. It's a "marginal" call, but the underlying swell is there to get you some good ones if you're willing to deal with the chop.

That pattern of decent swell and poor wind hangs around through the middle of the week. Then, we get a promising shift around the 21st and 22nd of July. The wind drops right back to a light breeze, and even turns directly onshore or cross-off at times. The swell is still a solid 5.2ft to 5.6ft from the SSW with 15-16 second periods. The energy is moderate. This is the best window of the whole forecast. The lighter wind will make the surface much cleaner, and Keramas is a reef that handles a good SSW swell perfectly. The crowd factor is "sometimes" here, so it's worth getting out early.

The real standout, however, is the very end of the forecast on Saturday, July 25th. The afternoon session is a beauty. The swell holds at 4.3ft from the SSW, with a 14-second period, and the wind shifts to a light NE cross-offshore breeze. The data says "clean" and "expect very good surf conditions." This is the one to circle on the calendar. That light offshore wind on a 4.3ft SSW groundswell at Keramas will be absolutely perfect. The reef will be working its magic, and with the water still warm, it's going to be a session to remember.

Overall, there's a lot of waiting around, but the 25th of July is the clear winner. The 21st and 22nd are also worth a look for some solid, cleaner waves.

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