Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty.

Alright, listen up. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window here, and it’s all about one spot: Keramas. This reef break is set to handle a serious run of SSW groundswell, but don’t go thinking it’s all gonna be perfect. The wind is a real character in this story, and it’s gonna put a bit of a lid on things for a lot of the time.

We kick off on Friday the 7th of August. The swell is already running at a solid 8 ft from the SSW, with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, just pumping in with heaps of energy (3200). The water is sitting at a warm 81°, which is pretty average for this time of year. The issue is the wind. It’s a cross-on from the SE at 6 mph, putting a bit of a texture on the face. It’s surfable, but not the cleanest. The conditions are a bit "marginal," so it’s a session for the keen, not the perfect postcard.

Saturday the 8th picks up with onshore winds, 9 mph from the SE, and the swell is still a beefy 8 ft. The energy is still huge (2765), but the onshore wind is going to chop it up. It’s looking a bit messy. Sunday the 9th is much the same story – cross-onshore winds and a dropping swell around 7 ft. It’s not the best.

Now, pay attention. The real standout, the one that’s got my heart racing a little, is towards the end of the first week and into the beginning of the second. Monday the 10th of August morning is a bit meh, but the afternoon sees a jump in swell to 10 ft, still an SSW groundswell with a period of 18 seconds. That’s a huge amount of energy hitting the reef (4888). The wind is onshore, so it’s not perfect, but the power is undeniable.

But the real pick of the whole forecast is Tuesday the 11th of August. The morning session has a clean 10 ft of that beautiful SSW groundswell, with a 16-second period. The wind is light and onshore from the SSE at only 6 mph. That’s about as good as it gets for this setup. The wave energy is massive (4447). By the afternoon, the energy actually climbs even higher (5783), still with light onshore winds. This is the day. It’s a big swell, well over 8 ft, so this is for experienced surfers only. It’s going to be a powerful, critical wave. Expect a crowd, because this spot is "sometimes" busy, and on a day like this, everyone will be calling in sick.

Wednesday the 12th sees the swell drop back to 7 ft, and the cross-onshore wind returns, making it a bit choppy again. The energy is still moderate (2468), but the quality drops.

Then we get to the 13th of August. The swell direction shifts slightly to the S, and the height jumps to a massive 12 ft with a 17-second period. The energy is through the roof (6221). The wind is onshore from the SE again, but it’s only a light breeze. This is another big day for the experts. The 14th and 15th are okay, with the swell around 8 ft to 7 ft, but the cross-onshore wind is a constant companion.

The second week, from the 16th onward, the swell stays in the 6 ft to 8 ft range, but the wind is a persistent problem. It’s mostly cross-onshore, creating a fair bit of chop. The wave energy is still decent, but the quality is just not there. The biggest issue is the wind. If you’re a regular, you’ll be scratching your head. The conditions are consistently described as "marginal." The 17th of August is a write-off for surfing, with strong cross-onshore winds and a dropping swell. That day looks more interesting for a kite than a paddle.

The 18th and 19th offer a glimmer of hope, with the swell picking up to 8 ft and the wind turning more onshore, but still with a bit of a cross component. The 20th, 21st, and 22nd are all the same tune: inconsistent quality due to the wind.

So, what’s the final call? The best on offer is hands-down Tuesday the 11th of August. A massive, powerful groundswell from the SSW, with light winds making for a cleaner, more manageable beast. The 13th of August is a close second for sheer power, but the wind is a little more questionable. The rest of the window is a waiting game, with the wind holding the quality back. Don’t give up hope, the swell is there, it just needs a bit of a weather break to really shine.

Rusty.

Read more