Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, checking in from Keramas. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipeline over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—the next few days are a bit of a write-off. The swell is there, but the wind is a real pain. We’ve got a solid groundswell rolling in from the SSW, with a period hitting 15 seconds which is proper long-period energy, but it’s all coming in with a cross-onshore breeze. That’s going to chop it up and make things messy. The water temp is sitting at 82°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The real saving grace for this forecast is how consistent Keramas is as a reef break. It’s a very consistent wave, so even when conditions are marginal, there’s always something to look at. The combined energy for the first recommended window is strong, hitting 1908 (moderate-to-strong energy), but the wave quality is just poor due to the wind.

We’ve got a bit of a gap here. The first few days are all showing poor or marginal surf forecasts. Thursday the 9th of July through to the weekend is looking pretty average. The wind stays cross-on, and the swell is just not cooperating. It’s not until around Tuesday the 14th of July that we start seeing a glimmer of something better. The swell picks back up to 6 ft to 6 ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, but again, the wind is still cross-on. It’s going to be a bit of a grind.

If you’re looking for a standout, I’d circle Tuesday the 14th of July. The morning session has the swell size at 6 ft, period at 17 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 1918. It’s still cross-on, but the wind is a gentle breeze, so it’s not as bad as the moderate breezes we see later in the day. It’s the best of a tricky bunch. The afternoon is a step down with the wind picking up to a moderate breeze, making it choppy.

Now, towards the end of the forecast window, around the 22nd and 23rd of July, the wind flips to onshore from the south. That’s a better direction for Keramas, but the swell is dropping off. The period is shorter, around 12-13 seconds, and the energy is much lower, around 500-600. It’s marginal, but cleaner. If you’re a beginner, these smaller, cleaner days are your best bet. Anything over 5 ft, like the 6 ft to 6 ft we see earlier, is going to be too big for you, and the 8 ft+ range isn’t in the mix, so don’t worry about that.

The long-range stuff around the 24th of July is a promise, but not a certainty. The swell is small, 2 ft to 3 ft, but the period is 16 seconds, which is very long. That kind of energy at a reef like Keramas can produce some clean, lined-up waves, especially if the wind holds. It’s a long shot, but worth keeping an eye on.

Honestly, for the next week, if you’re a paddle surfer, you’re going to be fighting the wind. The cross-onshore chop is going to make it feel like a workout. A kite surfer might have a field day with the consistent 5 ft to 6 ft swell and the side-shore wind, but for a traditional surfer, it’s a waiting game. The crowds are listed as "sometimes" at Keramas, so you might get it to yourself, but the conditions are the real gatekeeper.

Rusty.

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