Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got the long-range look at what’s coming for the Bali swell window. Honestly, for the next couple of weeks, it’s a tough stretch. The wind is locked in from the southeast, blowing cross-on shore at Keramas, and that’s putting a chop on just about everything. The water temp is sitting at 28°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real pulse of energy shows up on Wednesday, July 15th, with a solid 6 ft SSW groundswell running at a very long 16 seconds. That’s proper energy—the combined swell energy is reading 1944 (moderate to strong)—but the wind is a light cross-on, so the face is going to be a bit bumpy. It’s not the clean, glassy Keramas we dream of, but for an intermediate, it’s still worth a look. The morning session will be the better call, as the afternoon gets more choppy with the breeze picking up. Thursday the 16th drops off a bit, with 5 ft swell and period staying at 15 seconds, but that persistent cross-on wind keeps it from being anything special. By Friday and into the weekend, it’s a real grind: the swell hangs around 4 ft to 4 ft, but the wind is up to 12 mph and the wave quality is poor. The storm risk on Saturday and Sunday doesn’t help the vibe.

Now, here’s the one standout that might get your heart pumping. On Monday, July 20th, we see a noticeable jump. The swell pushes back up to 7 ft in the morning, hitting 7 ft by afternoon, with a solid 16 to 17-second period from the SSW. The combined energy climbs to 2327—strong energy—and the wind is still cross-on, but only a gentle breeze. At that size, with that long period, Keramas (Bali) will be pitching, and it’s definitely expert territory. The wave will be fat and powerful, but the cross-on wind will still put a bit of texture on it. If you’re an experienced surfer, Monday morning is your best shot in this whole 16-day window. Tuesday the 21st drops back to 6 ft, and from there, it’s a slow fade into the gutter.

The second week, from July 22nd onward, is flat and depressing. The swell drops to 3 ft to 4 ft, the period shortens, and the wind stays cross-on at 9 to 12 mph. The combined energy readings are mostly in the 600–900 range, which is weak. By July 26th, the swell direction swings to the SE with a terrible 8-second period—just wind slop. The morning of July 28th offers a brief 7 ft pulse, but it’s short-period SE windswell, and it’s just not going to hold up. Honestly, after Monday the 20th, there’s not much to get excited about. The crowds at Keramas are likely to be there, especially when the swell is half-decent, but with the conditions this average, it might not be as packed as usual.

If you’re a kite surfer, the consistent cross-on wind and bumpy sea state might look more interesting than paddle surfing for most of this period. For the rest of us, pick your window carefully on Monday the 20th, and then take a break.

Rusty.

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