Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Rusty here, and I’m looking at the same picture through a different lens. It’s a tricky one. We’ve got a solid groundswell on the way, but the reports all say the same thing: it’s going to be marginal with questionable tide conditions. The water is a pleasant 81°, which is right where it should be for this time of year.

The main story is a consistent, long-period SSW groundswell. It’s packing a punch, with the combined energy readings hitting the thousands (1687 to 2942), which is strong. That’s the good part. The bad part is the commentary keeps calling it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” For a known reef like Keramas, which is very consistent and faces the SSW, that means the tide is going to be the boss. You’ll have to work around it.

Here’s the timeline. It kicks off on Saturday, September 5th, with a 6ft swell from the SSW at a very long 16 seconds. The wind is a light onshore breeze from the SE, so it’ll be a bit textured. That long period is a classic groundswell, which is magic for a reef, giving it good shape. The size bumps up to 7ft on Sunday the 6th, and the pattern holds. The energy peaks on Tuesday, September 8th, with a 6ft swell at a massive 19 seconds, giving a combined energy of 2942 – that’s a lot of water moving. Getting out will be a workout, but the sets will be worth it if you hit the tide. By Wednesday the 9th, we’re looking at 8ft at 16 seconds, which is getting into the big leagues for most folks. The wind is still light onshore, so it’s not glassy, but it’s not a disaster either.

The single best window in this whole 16-day stretch is probably Tuesday, September 8th. The swell is a manageable 6ft, but the period is a very long 19 seconds, and the combined energy is the highest of the whole run at 2942. That’s a powerful, clean groundswell. The wind is light from the SSE, onshore but light, so it won’t be a total mess. It’s not a perfect day, but it’s the best we’ve got. After that, the swell keeps coming, but the quality calls stay the same. In the second week, around September 16th, we see another pulse of 7ft swell with strong energy (2470), but the wind is still light onshore.

The big issue is the wind. It’s almost always a light onshore breeze from the SE or SSE. That’s not the perfect offshore wind you’d want, but it’s not a howling gale either. It’s a “light onshore” situation, which can be rideable, especially with the right tide. For a spot that’s “sometimes” crowded, the conditions might keep the crowds light.

To be honest, this setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a pure paddle surfer, given the consistent onshore wind and solid swell. If you’re a surfer, you’ll need to be patient and pick your tide windows. The forecasts can change, and it usually doesn’t stay poor for long, so keep checking.

Rusty.

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