Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – this next couple of weeks at Keramas is a bit of a mixed bag. The swell is there, but we’re mostly dealing with a persistent cross-onshore wind that’s going to keep things choppy and messy. It’s not a write-off, but you’ll have to be patient and pick your moments.

The water’s sitting at about 82°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no need to worry about a wetsuit.

Things kick off from Saturday, July 11th, but it’s not pretty. We’ve got 5 ft of SSW swell at 14 seconds, which is a nice long-period groundswell (1275 combined energy units), but the cross-on wind from the SE at 15 km/h is going to mess it up. The morning score is low, and by the afternoon the swell drops to 3 ft. Honestly, not worth paddling out for.

Sunday the 12th is even smaller – 3 ft in the morning – and the wind is still on it. The combined energy drops to 546 units. The afternoon is a flat-out zero. Monday the 13th is more of the same, with 3 ft and cross-on wind. You’re better off doing something else.

Then things start to pick up. On Tuesday, July 14th, we get a solid SSW swell pushing 6 ft in the morning, with a 17-second period (2579 combined energy units). This is a proper groundswell. The problem? Still that cross-on SE wind. The wave quality is rated as poor, so the shape is going to be lumpy. It’s a reef break, and with a period over 15 seconds, it’s prone to lining up a bit straight, but at least the paddle out might be easier between sets.

The 6 ft swell continues through Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday, July 15th, but the wind stays cross-on. The score is still low. It’s frustrating seeing that energy and not getting the clean conditions.

The standouts in this whole window actually come later in the period. On Thursday, July 24th, we’ve got a morning with 5 ft SSW swell and a light SE wind at 10 km/h, which is a cross-on. But the afternoon is the real gem: the wind shifts to onshore, but it’s only 10 km/h, and the swell holds at 5 ft with a 15-second period. The combined energy is 1295 units. It’s the best-looking session in the whole forecast. The crowd can be *sometimes* an issue, but for a clean 5 ft on a reef with a long period, it’s worth the company.

The following Friday, July 25th, also shows promise. The morning has 5 ft at 15 seconds, but with a gentle cross-on wind. The afternoon picks up to 6 ft, still 15 seconds, and the combined energy is 1330 units. The wind is still cross-on, but it’s the best looking swell size in the second week. The risk of thunderstorms is a factor, but if you get lucky, the afternoon session could be decent.

So, my call: the best session on offer is Thursday afternoon, July 24th. That 5 ft SSW groundswell with light wind is your best bet for a clean wave. The Tuesday afternoon, July 25th, is a solid backup if the swell holds.

For the rest of the time, it’s a game of avoiding the wind. The early part of the window is a waste. There’s a gap from Saturday the 11th right through to Monday the 13th with nothing worth chasing. From Tuesday the 14th onwards, the swell is there, but you’re fighting the breeze. Just keep an eye on that wind shift, because the energy is waiting.

Rusty.

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