Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, giving you the long-range outlook for the region.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up. The main break on the radar is a familiar face – Keramas. The early part of the outlook is a bit of a tease; the ocean is active for sure, with a solid push of SSW groundswell, but the wind is just not playing ball for clean, classic Keramas shape. We're looking at persistent cross-onshore breezes through much of the first week that will keep the surface bumpy and the faces a bit messier than we'd like. Don’t get too fired up for the next few days.

The best window is shaping up to be around Sunday the 30th of August through to Monday the 1st of September. That’s where we see a subtle shift in the wind and a change in swell direction that might just line everything up.

Let’s break it down day by day.

Starting from the 17th of August, Monday morning is clear with a light SSE breeze blowing 6 mph. Now, that breeze is offshore for Keramas, but the swell is only 5ft from the SSW with a long 14-second period. The combined energy is moderate at (806). It's surfable, but the wave comment says marginal, likely due to tide. It’s not a standout.

Tuesday the 18th of August sees a jump in energy. The morning has a clean 4ft SSW swell at a very long 16 seconds, pushing combined energy up to (1910). The wind is a light cross-onshore from the SE at 6 mph though, so expect small wind ripples on the face. The afternoon gets a bit bigger at 6ft, but the wind picks up to a gentle cross-onshore breeze, making it fairly choppy.

Wednesday the 19th of August is when the size starts to pick up properly. The morning has 7ft of clean, long-period groundswell from the SSW, period hitting 18 seconds and combined energy roaring into strong territory at (3092). This is solid, powerful surf. But that SE cross-onshore breeze at 6 mph is still there, putting a slight wrinkle on an otherwise beautiful looking swell. Still, for a confident intermediate, this is quality, powerful surf. The afternoon pushes to 8ft with (3580) energy, but again, a choppier cross-onshore.

Thursday the 20th of August – the swell peaks. The morning shows 8ft from the SSW at 16 seconds, with a combined energy of (3198). That’s expert territory for size. But again, we are dealing with a light cross-onshore breeze. It’s big and lumpy.

From Friday the 21st through to the end of the first week (around the 24th), we see a slow drop in size, but the cross-onshore wind pattern holds. We are looking at consistent 5ft to 7ft SSW groundswell, but the conditions remain choppy for most afternoons and bumpy in the mornings. It’s consistent, but not clean.

Now, the light at the end of the tunnel comes on Sunday the 30th of August and Monday the 1st of September. This is the standout period.

On Sunday the 30th of August, the morning brings a smaller 4ft swell, but look at the direction – it shifts to the SW, and the period holds at a very long 18 seconds. The wind goes light and offshore from the SSE at 6 mph. That is the formula for some beautiful, clean lines. The combined energy is (1321), so moderate, but the quality will be high. This is the pick of the forecast. Glassy conditions. The afternoon builds to 5ft with the same glassy offshore wind.

Then on Monday the 31st of August, we get another injection of size. The morning has 6ft from the SW at 16 seconds, combined energy (1732), and that same light offshore breeze from the SSE at 6 mph. This is the best combination of size and clean conditions in the entire 16-day window.

After that, the first of September looks okay, but the wind shifts back to a cross-onshore, so that clean window closes.

To wrap it up, the early part is a frustrating mix of decent swell and poor wind. The absolute standout is the period starting on the 30th of August. For clean, lined-up Keramas, aim for that Sunday morning session, or the following Monday morning. That’s your best chance for a glassy, rippable wave. The water temp is sitting at a very comfortable 80°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that last weekend of the month.

Rusty.

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