Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Alright, we’re lookin’ straight at Keramas – a proper reef setup that knows how to handle a swell. Water temp’s sittin’ at 80°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so don’t stress about a weird chill. The whole 16-day window is cooked up by a consistent, long-period SSW groundswell, and the onshore winds are pretty relentless – mostly light to gentle from the SSE or SE. That means it’s gonna be onshore pretty much the whole time, which is a bit of a bummer. The energy’s moderate to strong across the board, with readings like 1645 up to 2962, so there’s plenty of push, but the wind’s gonna mess with the surface.

We kick off Sunday the 6th with morning rain showers and a 6 ft SSW swell at 14 seconds – combined energy of 1645. The wind’s from the SSE at 15 km/h, blowin’ onshore, so it’s gonna be a bit lumpy. Afternoon cleans up slightly with clouds and a lighter 10 km/h breeze, but the swell drops to 5 ft and the period stretches to a very long 16 seconds – that long-period groundswell can make a reef like Keramas throw some real nice shape, but the onshore wind is still a factor. The notes say marginal surf, and with that wind direction, it’s not gonna be clean.

Monday the 7th keeps the same story – light rain in the morning, 7 ft at 14 seconds, wind still onshore. Afternoon sees some clouds and a slight drop to 6 ft, but the period stays at 14 seconds. Still marginal. Tuesday the 8th starts with 5 ft at a very long 19 seconds (energy 2582) – that’s a proper groundswell, but the onshore wind (SSE 15 km/h) is gonna have it looking bumpy. The afternoon pumps up to 6 ft at 18 seconds (energy 2962), one of the higher energy readings, but again – onshore. Same pattern runs right through the weekend.

Now, if you’re after the best on offer – and I’m being honest, it’s a stretch – look at Wednesday the 9th. Morning has some clouds, 8 ft SSW swell at 16 seconds (energy 2903), and the wind’s from the S at 10 km/h – still onshore, but that’s the lightest wind you’ll see for a while. It’s the biggest swell of the first week and the light breeze might just keep it rideable. Afternoon stays similar at 7 ft. That 8 ft is solid intermediate to expert territory, so if you’re experienced and can handle the onshore chop, that’s your window.

From Thursday the 10th through Sunday the 13th, it’s all 6 ft–7 ft SSW swell, period between 14 and 18 seconds, and wind from the SSE to SE at 15 km/h. Still onshore. Energy stays in the 1000s to 2000s – moderate to strong – but the surface is never gonna be silky. By Monday the 14th, the wind starts goin’ cross-on from the SE, makin’ things a bit choppier.

Into the second week – Tuesday the 15th through Friday the 18th – we get a bit of a lull. Swell drops to 5 ft–6 ft, periods around 14–15 seconds, energy down around 1000–1300. Winds are SE at 15 km/h, still cross-on or onshore. It’s weaker and not worth gettin’ excited about.

But then, Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th – things start lookin’ up. Saturday the 19th has 6 ft–7 ft at 17 seconds (energy 1971–2255) with a lighter SSE 10 km/h breeze – still onshore, but lighter. Sunday the 20th pushes up to 8 ft at 16 seconds (energy 2834) with the same light 10 km/h wind. That’s the biggest swell of the whole run, and with the lighter wind, it’s the best chance for a decent session – even with the onshore direction. Monday the 21st holds 8 ft at 15 seconds (energy 2686), wind from the SSE at 10 km/h. That’s a standout for size and energy, but again, it’s onshore.

The whole window is onshore – there’s no glassy or offshore moment. The swell is consistent and long-period, which Keramas loves, but the wind is the letdown. For a reef this good, it’s frustrating. If you’re desperate and experienced, target Wednesday the 9th and the weekend of the 19th–21st. Otherwise, it’s a kite-surfing kind of setup this time.

– Rusty

Read more