Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s shaping up at Keramas.

Right off the bat, the pattern is consistent – we’ve got a solid, long-period SSW groundswell running through the whole 16-day window. The problem is the wind. It’s locked in from the SE, putting us in a persistent cross-on shore breeze that’s keeping things from getting truly epic. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

Looking at the immediate start, Sunday July 5th kicks off with a 6ft SSW swell at 14 seconds. The combined energy is strong at 1478 (moderate to strong energy), but that morning “light breeze” (6 mph) is cross-on, leaving small wind ripples. It’s ridable, but not glassy. By the afternoon, the wind bumps up to 9 mph, and it gets fairly choppy.

Monday July 6th has a similar story – 4ft to 6ft SSW swell, long 14 to 16 second periods, but that gentle cross-onshore breeze keeps the surface lumpy. The afternoon does show a solid energy jump to 2015, a nice pulse of power, but the wind doesn’t cooperate.

Honestly, the whole first week is a battle. We get plenty of wave height – 6ft, 6ft on Wednesday July 8th and Thursday July 9th – but the wind stays cross-on, with moderate breezes (12 mph) making it choppy on those days. The swell direction is right in the optimum window for this reef (SSW), but without clean offshore winds, the quality suffers. The surf is there, the shape is just marginal.

The second week doesn’t improve much on the wind front. By the weekend of July 11th and 12th, the swell drops way down to 3ft, combined energy is weak in the 400s, and it’s poor conditions.

We do get a couple of interesting pulses to note. On Monday morning July 13th, we see a brief shift to a 6ft SE swell at a short 7 seconds – that’s windswell, and it’s messy. But then Sunday afternoon July 19th and into Monday July 20th is where it gets really interesting for the long-range crew. Sunday afternoon has a 3ft SSW swell but with a very long 19-second period, and 1418 energy. Then Monday July 20th morning sees a spike: a 8ft SSW groundswell at a very long 20 seconds, with energy hitting 4423 – that’s strong to very strong energy. This is the only real standout in the whole run. At 8ft, it’s getting into expert territory for a reef break, and the 20-second period is very long. That kind of period can make a beach break straighten out, but on a reef like Keramas, it’s gonna produce some serious, heavy lines.

The catch? Even on that Monday the 20th, the wind is still forecast as a gentle cross-on (9 mph), so we’re still not getting that offshore perfection. It’s a promising, powerful swell that’s likely out of reach for beginners, and the conditions will keep it from being world-class.

If you’re a kitesurfer, this whole period looks more fun – the consistent cross-on wind and solid swell make for good boosting conditions.

For the whole 16 days, there isn’t a single window with ideal offshore winds. The consistency of the swell is good, but the quality is always held back by that cross-on breeze.

-Rusty

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