Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Keramas over the next couple of weeks.

The honest truth is, we’re looking at a pretty long stretch of average to poor conditions to kick things off. The wind is stuck in a cross-onshore pattern from the southeast for the first week, and that’s holding things back. The swell is inconsistent and the quality just isn’t there for a good paddle session. Those first few days, starting Sunday the 26th July, are a write-off really – the wave faces are there size wise, around 6 ft to 7 ft, but the wind is messing it up and making it choppy and bumpy. The combined wave energy is moderate at best, with readings around 884 to 953, but it’s not translating into anything rideable, so I’d give it a miss.

Things start to change ever so slightly as we roll into the new week. From Thursday the 30th July onwards, the swell direction shifts more to the SSW, and the period starts climbing, getting up around 15 to 17 seconds. This is proper groundswell energy. The combined energy jumps right up into the strong category (think 1167 to 1715). The trouble is, the wind hasn't fully cleaned up. It’s still more cross than anything, and the scores remain low. Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st of August offer some hope – the wind is lighter, down to a light breeze on the Saturday, and the swell is pulsing 4 ft to 5 ft with that long 16-18 second period. The water temperature has no major anomaly to speak of; it’s about where you’d expect for this time of year, so a normal wetsuit or springsuit call. Even then, it’s still marginal.

The real standout window doesn't really open up until the second week, so keep that in mind. We’re talking around Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th of August. Suddenly, the swell size jumps. The Saturday the 8th sees 7 ft to 8 ft of long-period SSW groundswell. The energy figures go from strong to very strong, hitting 2934 then 3884. That’s serious power. On Sunday the 9th, it gets bigger still, with a solid 10 ft of swell. At this size, it’s well into expert territory for the lineup. The wind, while still a breeze, is cross-onshore, and there are a couple of offshore windows showing, with onshore conditions and more SSE winds on the Sunday afternoon. There's also a chance of cleaner conditions on the Monday the 10th, with onshore winds and a 8 ft SSW swell.

Right now, the single best bet across the whole 16-day window looks like Sunday the 9th of August at Keramas. You're looking at a solid 10 ft of SSW groundswell with a 17-second period. That is a lot of water moving. The wave energy is extreme – 5574 for the morning session. A reef break like Keramas needs that direction and period to really line up and offer its famous barrels. The wind is forecast to be onshore, which is interesting, but there are signs of lighter flow. If you’re an experienced surfer, this is the one to circle.

If that’s too far out for you, Saturday the 8th of August is a very promising runner-up. Still very solid at 7 ft-8 ft, with that same long-period SSW swell. It’ll be powerful and consistent, another proper groundswell day. The crowds at Keramas can be an issue – the guidance notes crowds 'sometimes', and on a day like this, you can bet it will be busy. But with waves of this quality and size, it’s no surprise.

From Monday the 10th, the swell is still pumping at 8 ft with very strong energy readings (5527), but it's starting to ease back a little. The rest of the month looks to hold some fun, cleaner surf as the wind might finally let up. Stay tuned, but for now, set the alarm for that second weekend in August.

Rusty.

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