Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Keramas. To be honest, I’ve gotta call it straight – there’s really no good surf options in this 16‑day window. The swell is there, make no mistake, but the wind is just not playing ball and the conditions are looking marginal at best.

Water temp is sitting at about 82°F with a 2°F anomaly, so it’s a touch warmer than average for this time of year – that’s noticeable but not crazy.

The first few days – Tuesday 14th through to Thursday 16th – have a decent south‑southwest groundswell running, with swell heights around 4 to 6 ft and periods of 15 to 18 seconds. That’s proper long‑period groundswell, and the combined energy is moderate to strong (between 1000 and 2254). The problem is the wind. It’s a persistent cross‑onshore from the southeast at 9 mph, sometimes 12 mph, so the surface is going to be bumpy and choppy. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” and the scores are only 2 out of 10 those days. It’s not utter junk, but it’s not something I’d paddle out for unless you’re desperate.

From Friday 17th onward it gets worse. The swell sticks around but the wind stays cross‑on and the quality drops to “poor surf conditions” with scores of 0 or 1. The energy drops off too – by the end of the month it’s down to 248 to 320, which is weak. The swell direction is still SSW, which is the optimum for Keramas, but without clean wind it doesn’t matter.

The one bright spot is that Keramas is a very consistent reef break, and it’s rated as intermediate. Crowds are sometimes an issue, but with conditions this average, it might be quieter. Even so, I can’t in good conscience recommend a session. There’s a small window on Tuesday 20th where the swell bumps up to 6‑7 ft with 17‑second period and energy of 2319 – that’s a solid amount of water. But the wind is still cross‑onshore and the score is only 1. So it’s a “maybe” for someone who doesn’t mind choppy, but it’s not a standout.

Given the lack of any decent windows, I’d say sit this one out. The consistency of Keramas means it won’t stay poor forever, but this forecast is a long stretch of mediocrity. Keep an eye on the wind models – if it swings offshore (NNW is the offshore direction here), it could turn on quickly.

Rusty.

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