Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, lookin’ at the charts for the next couple weeks. Let’s be straight with ya – Keramas has got a bit of a tricky run ahead. The swell’s gonna be around, but it’s fighting against some cross-onshore winds for a good chunk of the time, which is going to mess with that usually perfect face. The water temp feels pretty average for this time of year, nothing wild there.

Right now, from Tuesday the 15th right through to Saturday the 20th, it’s a bit of a grind. We’ve got consistent 5ft to 6ft SSW groundswell rolling in with a nice long 14 to 16 second period – that’s proper energy there (moderate to strong combined energy, 791-1762). But the wind is a real buzzkill. Mostly a gentle 9 mph cross-onshore from the SE, turning onshore in the afternoons. It’s making for a pretty choppy, messy surface. The scores are low – it’s surfable, but you’ll be fighting for the clean ones. Not a standout period at all.

Now, we get into Sunday the 21st and Monday the 22nd. The swell backs off a touch, dropping to 4ft to 6ft, but the wind lightens up to 6 mph onshore from the SSE. It’s a bit cleaner, but still not the Keramas we dream about. The energy’s dropping too, so the grins will be a bit harder to find.

Here’s where things get interesting. For Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th, the swell picks back up, 6ft to 6ft of that long period SSW swell (combined energy around 1094 to 1619 – still solid). But there it is again – a 9 mph cross-onshore wind. It’s a pattern.

Then we hit a bit of a lull from Friday the 25th into Saturday the 26th morning – still 6ft to 7ft of swell, but the wind stays on it. It’s not terrible, just not firing on all cylinders.

But hold onto your board, because Sunday the 27th of September is the one. That’s the standout. We’ve got a solid 10ft SSW groundswell with an 18-second period. That’s a massive, powerful, very long-period groundswell. The combined energy is through the roof at 5908 – that’s very strong energy. Now, the wind is a gentle 9 mph onshore from the SE in the morning, lightening up to 6 mph onshore in the arvo. For a wave that size and power, that onshore wind is going to blow the top off it. This is big, heavy, expert-only territory. Over 8ft, and at 10ft, it’s only for the very experienced crew who know that reef. The long period will make it a freight train at Keramas – a proper reef, so it can handle that energy, but don’t expect the usual silky walls. It will be big, raw, and powerful. The crowd will be there, it always is when it’s big.

Monday the 28th drops to 8ft with a 16-second period – still expert level, but more manageable. The rest of the week into the 30th settles back to the 5ft to 5ft range with the same onshore wind story.

So, the call: The only real standout on the cards is that Sunday the 27th, but it’s one for the experts only. For everyone else, the whole forecast window is more about chasing a window of clean, workable waves than scoring perfection. Keep an eye on the wind; if it ever clocks offshore from the NNW, that’s the go button. Until then, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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