Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Keramas over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a solid, persistent run of SSW groundswell lined up, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag with the winds. The standout window is definitely the opening days, with Monday 10th August through to Tuesday 11th offering the best conditions. After that, the trade winds start to mess with the surface a fair bit, and the quality drops off.

Right from the get-go on Monday 10th August, it’s looking clean. We’ve got a chunky 10ft SSW groundswell running with a very long 18 second period, and the wind is light and offshore from the SSE. That’s a serious amount of energy in the water – we’re talking combined swell energy of 4753. The water temperature is a balmy 81°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Keramas is a reef break, so that long period, powerful swell will be lining up beautifully. This is the pick of the forecast, no question. It’s intermediate to expert territory at that size, but it’s going to be pumping. Just keep in mind it can get a crowd here sometimes.

Tuesday 11th August keeps the momentum going. The morning is still 10ft but with a slightly shorter 16 second period, and again light offshore winds from the SE. Energy is still massive at 4447. The afternoon might see the wind pick up a little to a gentle breeze from the SSE, but the swell is still clean and the energy jumps to 5782. These two days are the ones to circle.

From Wednesday 12th August, the wind turns cross-onshore. The swell backs off a touch to 7ft in the morning, but the 17 second period keeps it lined up. Still, the surface gets a bit choppy, and the scores drop off. It’s surfable, but it’s not the glassy perfection of the first two days.

Thursday 13th August holds 8ft S swell, but the cross-onshore wind is still there. The energy is strong (3463 to 3690), but it’s a bit of a fight. The rest of that week, right through to the weekend of the 15th and 16th, is a similar story. Swell hovers around the 7ft mark, with 16 to 17 second periods, but the wind is a persistent cross-onshore or light onshore. It’s not terrible, but it’s not the clean, groomed stuff we had at the start.

We hit a bit of a lull around Monday 17th and Tuesday 18th August, where the swell drops to 5ft and the wind is still messy. The energy dips below 1000, so it’s weaker. Things pick up again from Wednesday 19th August, with the swell rebuilding to 7ft, but the wind is still an issue.

The real wildcard is on Sunday 23rd August. The swell height drops right off to 4ft, but the period goes absolutely massive – 21 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, and the energy is still 2105. It’s a reef break, so that long period will wrap in nicely, but 4ft is small. It could be a sneaky clean session if the wind plays ball, but it’s a low-probability call.

The final peak comes at the end of the window, on Monday 24th August. We see 8ft SSW swell with a 17 second period, and the wind is light offshore. The energy rockets back up to 3790. That’s a promising one looking into the second week, but it’s a long way out, so treat it with a bit of caution.

So, to sum it up: Monday 10th and Tuesday 11th August are your absolute go-to days. Big, powerful, offshore, and clean. After that, the wind is a constant battle until that last pulse on the 24th. If you can only make one call, make it the first two days.

- Rusty

Read more