Keramas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, the next couple of weeks at Keramas are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid, consistent groundswell running from the SSW, but the wind is a stubborn cross-onshore that’s keeping things messy. It’s not all bad news – there’s a decent pulse of energy coming through, but you’re gonna have to pick your moments carefully. The water’s sitting at a warm 82°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Starting off, Wednesday the 8th through to Friday the 10th, we’re seeing a consistent 6 ft to 6 ft SSW swell with a long 15 to 16 second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and combined energy is moderate to strong (1775 to 1951). But the ESE to SE wind is blowing at 12 to 12 mph, straight cross-onshore, so it’s choppy and a bit bumpy. Scores are low, so these aren’t the days to get excited about.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th, the swell drops off – down to 3 ft to 5 ft, with energy fading (383 to 985). Still cross-onshore, still messy. Not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 13th is a weird one – we’ve got a tiny 2 ft swell but with a very long 21 second period (energy 847). That’s a super long period groundswell, which can be tricky on a reef break like Keramas; it might just close out or wash through. The wind’s still cross-onshore at 9 mph. Not a standout.

Now, things start to look a bit more interesting from Tuesday the 14th. We get a jump up to 5 ft to 6 ft SSW swell, with a solid 18 second period. The combined energy kicks right up to 1786 and then 2321 on Tuesday afternoon – that’s strong wave energy. The wind, however, is still a moderate cross-onshore at 9 to 12 mph, so it’s gonna be choppy. Not clean, but the size and push are there.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th hold similar size (4 ft to 6 ft) but energy drops a bit. Again, cross-onshore wind, so it’s average at best.

The best of the bunch looks to be the later part of the run. We’ve got a few promising days in the second week. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd see a big jump in swell – 7 ft to 7 ft from the SSW with a 15 to 16 second period. The combined energy hits 1958 and then a whopping 2896 on Tuesday afternoon – that’s strong to very strong energy. The wind is only a gentle breeze at 9 mph, so while it’s still cross-onshore, it’s lighter and the surf should be a bit cleaner. This is the closest we get to a standout, but that 7 ft is getting up there – more for experienced surfers.

Then Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th, we see the wind finally swing to straight onshore, still light at 6 mph, with 6 ft SSW swell and 14 second period. The light wind might tidy things up for a session. The scores finally climb a little here, so these late days could be the actual pick if the wind plays nice.

Honestly, for this whole 16-day window, there’s no perfect, glassy, offshore day. The wind is the big problem. The break is consistent and exposed, so it’s never completely flat. The best bet is to target those lighter wind afternoons on the 21st and 22nd, or the morning of the 23rd. If the swell is over 7 ft, it’s gonna be a handful. If it’s smaller, it’s still cross-onshore chop. For a kite surfer, this setup would be more interesting than for a paddle surfer, especially with the consistent cross-breeze.

Keep an eye on the forecasts, but don’t get your hopes up too high. The potential is there, but the wind needs to cooperate.

Rusty.

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