Dumbea Left Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is a tricky outlook for Dumbea, no doubt about it. The first decent surf window doesn’t really open up until Wednesday, the 19th of August, and even then it’s a bit of a battle with the wind. The water temperature is sitting at 73°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The run from Wednesday the 19th through to the 24th of August is mostly a grind. We’ve got some swell, but the cross-off wind is cranking between 18 and 25 mph, which makes it a tough paddle. The best of that early period is Wednesday the 19th afternoon, with a solid 7ft SE swell, but that 22 mph wind is going to rip the face off. The wave energy is strong, clocking in at 1329, but the quality is marginal. Thursday the 20th morning drops to 5ft and the energy falls away, but the wind is still pumping. This is more of a kite or windsurf setup than a clean paddle session.

Friday the 21st morning has a short-period 6ft SE swell, but again, 22 mph winds. The afternoon sees a 4ft SE swell with a long 13-second period, but the wind jumps to 25 mph, and the conditions are poor. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are a write-off – small, poor surf, and the wind is relentless.

Then things start to ease. Monday the 24th morning is the first real glimmer of hope. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph from the east, with a 4ft ESE swell. It’s still small, but the conditions are good, and the energy is weak at 295. It’s a morning for a longboard, maybe.

The real standout appears to be Thursday the 27th of August. The swell drops to 3ft from the SSW, but check this out – the wind goes glassy, 3 mph from the SSE. That’s a major positive. The wave period is a long 14 seconds, so there’s some real groundswell energy in that small wave, and the energy is moderate at 481. This is the pick of the early run, but it’s small, so it’s strictly for the logs or a fish.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a so-so affair. There’s a few moments with long-period SSW swell, but the wind is all over the place. The 24th of August morning is the other semi-decent session, but it’s not a standout.

Now, here’s the interesting part. The forecast shows a big jump in swell around the 2nd and 3rd of September. On the morning of the 2nd, we’re looking at a solid 8ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the wave energy is huge – 2924. That’s a very strong, powerful groundswell. The wind is still cross-off at 22 mph, which is a bit messy, but it’s a lot of water moving. The 3rd of September is similar, with 8ft SSW swell and 14-second period, but the wind picks up to 25 mph. This is expert territory, and it’s a long way out, so the confidence is lower, but it’s the only real punch of size in the whole outlook.

Bottom line: The best bet for a clean, small-wave session is Thursday the 27th of August, early morning, when it’s glassy with a long-period SSW groundswell. For those who don’t mind wind and want a bit of size, the 2nd of September morning is a promising but uncertain prospect. The rest of the time, it’s either too windy, too small, or both.

Rusty.

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