Dumbea Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee, let's look at the only game in town for the next couple of weeks – Dumbea Rights. It's a reef break, exposed to the south-west, so it needs a decent push from that direction to work. The water's sitting at a pretty standard 73°, so no surprises with the temperature for this time of year.

We start off with a bit of a flat spell, honestly. The first few days are weak and messy. Sunday the 12th kicks off with a long-period 16-second SSW groundswell at 3ft, but the cross-off wind (19 mph from the ESE) is too strong to make it any good. The wave energy is there at 817, but the wind just chops it up. Monday and Tuesday are poor – small, weak swell with fresh cross-off winds that just kill any chance of a decent wave. You're looking at energy readings dropping to between 127 and 370, so really nothing doing. Wednesday the 15th is a bit more promising with a bit of SSW swell returning, but it's not clean enough to get excited about.

Then things get real. Thursday morning the 16th of July is the first standout. We've got a solid 5ft SSW groundswell pumping in with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is a strong 1191. The wind is light off from the NE at 6 mph – near offshore – so the wave face is going to be clean. This is advanced territory, not for the faint-hearted, but for the crew who know their way around a reef, it's going to be excellent. One to circle on the calendar. The Thursday afternoon holds up at 4ft and 14 seconds, with a cross-off breeze so light it's barely a whisper. That energy jumps to 1569 – that's a lot of grunt in the water.

Friday the 17th is a gem. Friday morning we've got an early glass-off with southerly wind at just 3 mph – proper glassy conditions. The swell is a clean 3ft from the SSW with a 13-second period, and 717 combined energy. It's not huge, but the lack of wind and the decent period means it's going to be fun and well-shaped. Perfect for a long session if you can get out of work. Friday afternoon loses the glass, but it's still rideable.

After that, things get tricky again. Saturday the 18th drops off, and Sunday the 19th sees a big 4ft SSW groundswell with a massive 20-second period – energy at 1448 – but it's blown out by a strong cross-onshore wind from the west. The period is so long it's going to be a bit fat and straight on a reef break anyway, so it's more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-surfing session for that Sunday.

The following week looks messy with poor conditions and cross-onshore winds dominating, though there is a notable spike on Thursday the 23rd with 7ft to 7ft SE swell – that's big, but it's fresh cross-shore wind, so expect lumpy, powerful, expert-only waves at best. The period is only 11 seconds, so it'll be a bit of a washing machine.

The tail end of the outlook shows some real hope. Saturday morning the 25th of July has a very clean 2ft SSW groundswell (long 16-second period) with a light offshore breeze from the east. The energy is 513, and it's glassy-clean. It's small but perfect. Sunday the 26th morning is also a glassy dream – 3ft SSW, 13 seconds, no wind – absolute classic small-wave reef conditions. The best on offer for the second week is probably Monday the 27th of July, with a 2ft SSW beauty and a 17-second period, all glassed off with calm winds. It's a long wait, but those last few mornings look like they could be magic.

Bottom line: Thursday the 16th of July is the clear winner for power and size. For pure, clean, groomed conditions, point your board at Friday the 17th of July morning. For the second week, the late morning sessions on the 25th, 26th, and 27th are the ones to watch, but it's all a bit more of a gamble this far out.

Rusty.

Read more