Dumbea Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but there’s a standout window that’s worth circling on the calendar. The first few days are looking pretty average, with a mix of average swell and tricky winds. The real action looks to be pointing towards the second weekend.

We start off on Thursday, 3rd September. There’s some swell around, around 7ft from the SSW with a long 13-second period, giving the water a solid push with moderate wave energy (1295). But the wind is cross-on from the S at 6 mph, putting a bit of a ruffle on the surface. The water temp is sitting at 72°F, which is about spot on for this time of year. It’s not a total write-off, but it’s not the cleanest. Thursday afternoon sees the wind pick up and the quality drops.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th are a bit of a write-off for good surfing. The swell drops right off, down to 3ft and 2ft, and while the wind goes cross-off and clean, the energy is weak (around 400-484). The waves are just too small and weak to get excited about.

Now, Sunday the 6th is the first real highlight. Sunday morning, the wind goes glassy – a dead flat SSE breeze at just 3 mph. The swell is a solid 6ft from the SSW, with a long 15-second period, and the energy is strong (1454). This is going to be the cleanest, most lined-up session of the early part of the forecast. The long period means the waves will have good shape and power, and the glassy conditions will make it a pleasure to be out there. This is the one to aim for if you’re an experienced surfer – the size is over 5ft, so it’s a bit much for beginners, but for the rest of us, it’s a beauty.

Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th see the swell drop back to 4ft to 6ft, but the winds become more cross or cross-on, taking the shine off. The energy is still moderate (763-1015), but the chop makes it a messy affair.

The second week is a mixed bag, with a lot of windy, poor conditions right through to the 11th of September. The swell is there, but the wind is a dealbreaker. On Friday the 11th, the wind is honking from the SE at 22 mph, creating a lumpy, cross-shore chop. Swell is a mix of 4ft with a weird 24-second period, and then 8ft with a 22-second period. The energy is massive (2341 and 6452), but it’s just too messy for a good paddle.

The real standout of the whole forecast, and it’s a long-range one, is Saturday the 12th of September. The swell is pumping – 15ft in the morning and 13ft in the afternoon from the SSW, with a very long period of 18 seconds. The energy is extremely strong (11838 and 8646) – that’s a serious amount of power. The wind is cross-off from the ESE, so the faces will be clean. However, listen to me here: this is over 8ft, so this is strictly for experts only. This is a big, powerful groundswell, and at a reef break like Dumbea Rights, it’s going to be a serious, heavy wave. The size will be too big for most. If you’re an experienced charger, this is the session to keep an eye on, but it’s a long way out, so don’t book the day off just yet.

After that, the swell backs off, but it stays windy and messy through the rest of the second week.

So, to wrap it up: the absolute best bet for clean, quality waves is Sunday morning, 6th September at Dumbea Rights. Glassy conditions, solid 6ft groundswell with good energy. For the big-wave crew, keep your eye on Saturday, 12th September, but that’s a serious, expert-only proposition.

Rusty.

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