Dumbea Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag for our one consistent spot, Dumbea Rights. The first few days are small and messy, but there’s a couple of windows that should get the heart rate up, especially if you’re willing to wait.

We start off Monday the 13th with a bit of hope. The morning has a clean 4ft swell from the SE, with a gentle cross-off breeze. The water’s sitting at 73°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year. The wave energy is moderate (449). It’s a solid start, but the afternoon gets blown out by a stiff 22 mph easterly, so don’t bother with the arvo session. Tuesday and Wednesday are scrappy, with small waves and strong winds, definitely not worth paddling out for.

The first real standout comes on Thursday the 16th morning. The swell picks up to 5ft from the SSW, with a period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The energy is strong (1016), and it’s coming in with a light SSE cross-shore. The wave comment says “gentle cross-shore with slight cross-chop,” so it’s a bit lumpy, but for a reef break like this, that long period will wrap in nicely. It’s an advanced spot, so only experienced surfers should be out there. Crowds are possible at times. This is probably the best of the first week.

The weekend, Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th, has some size but the wind is a persistent cross-on, making it fairly choppy. The swell stays around 3ft to 5ft, with long periods (16 to 18 seconds), and the energy is strong (1286 to 2217), but the onshore flow kills the quality. Nothing to get excited about unless you’re after a messy session.

Now, roll into the second week. Monday the 20th morning is a tease. The swell is 4ft from the SSW with a 19-second period, and the wind swings light offshore from the SW. The energy is very strong (2743). The wave comment says “marginal,” but that offshore wind on a reef with that long period could be decent. It’s a promising but less certain call. The afternoon gets hammered by 8ft of short-period slop from the SSE, so that’s for experts only and blown out anyway.

The next few days, from Tuesday the 21st to Thursday the 23rd, are a write-off. Howling winds, rain, and messy, blown-out conditions. The swell is big (5ft to 8ft) but short period and onshore. This is a beach-and-reef setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Honestly, don’t even bother.

The real standout of the whole outlook is Sunday the 26th. The morning has a clean 6ft from the ESE with a 9-second period, but the wind is a light 6 mph cross-off – basically glassy. The energy is strong (829). The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” The water is still around 73°. The afternoon drops to 3ft but with a 18-second SSW groundswell, and the wind stays light offshore. That arvo session could be super clean and lined up, but the smaller size might make it a cruiser’s wave. This is the best day on offer, hands down.

The rest of the 28th is a bit of a fade, with a 3ft SSW groundswell and rain showers, but the wind is light offshore again. Worth a peek if you’re keen.

Overall, don’t get too excited about the first week. Thursday the 16th morning is your best bet for a proper session, and Sunday the 26th is the absolute standout. The gaps in between are mostly poor or marginal. For a reef break that’s consistent, it tends not to stay poor for long, so forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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