Dumbea Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a run of solid, long-period groundswell hitting Dumbea Rights (New Caledonia), and it’s going to be a cracking week for the experienced crew. The water is sitting at 74°, pretty much spot on for this time of year.

The action kicks off Friday afternoon, July 17th. We’re looking at a clean 4ft swell from the ESE with a light offshore breeze from the NE. The swell energy is moderate (543), and the wave comment says "expect very good surf conditions". It’s a nice start to the weekend.

Saturday the 18th is where it starts getting serious. The morning has that 4ft swell, but the direction has swung around to the SSW and the period has jumped to 17 seconds – proper groundswell. With a light offshore NE wind, it’s clean. The energy is up to 925. That’s a good window. But the standout is Saturday afternoon. The swell builds to 5ft from the SSW, period is still 17 seconds, and the combined energy surges to 1643. A moderate offshore breeze from the ENE keeps it clean. The file says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". This is it – the best on offer. It’s a reef break, and with that long period, it’s going to be firing. The swell direction matches the optimum (SSW), so expect some proper lines. Just be aware, crowds are possible here.

Sunday the 19th keeps the quality high. The morning has a 4ft SSW swell with a very long 21-second period and a gentle cross-offshore breeze. Energy is massive at 2244. It’s still "excellent for experienced surfers". The afternoon gets a bit bigger at 5ft, but the wind cranks up to 25 mph from the E, making it a cross-offshore but strong. The energy hits 3409, which is very strong, but the wind makes it a marginal call. The early session is the one.

Monday the 20th sees the swell drop a touch to 5ft, still from the SSW and 18-second period. The morning is clean but the wind is cross-shore, making it a bit tricky. By the afternoon, the wind turns cross-onshore, and the conditions get choppy. It’s a drop-off from the weekend.

Tuesday the 21st is a write-off. Strong cross-shore winds of 25 mph create a messy, chopped-up ocean. The swell is short-period and lumpy. Not worth paddling out.

Wednesday the 22nd has a bigger swell, 8ft in the morning, but it’s short-period (9 seconds) from the SE. The wind is a fresh cross-offshore, keeping it clean. At 8ft, this is only for experts. The energy is 1737, so there’s plenty of power. It’s a marginal call due to the short period, but if you’re an experienced local, there could be some heavy, dumpy walls.

Thursday the 23rd is smaller and cleaner early, but the wind picks up in the afternoon. The swell is running out of steam.

By Friday the 24th, the swell drops to 3ft. It’s clean, but small. The energy is down to 414. It’s a rest day or a longboard session.

The following week is a mixed bag. Saturday the 25th has a small, short-period swell and cross-shore winds. Not great.

Sunday the 26th sees the SSW swell rebuild to 4-5ft with a 16-second period, and the energy is back up to 1462. The wind is a moderate cross-offshore. It’s a solid, clean session.

The absolute sleeper in the second week is Monday, July 27th. Both the morning and the afternoon are absolute gold. The swell is a consistent 5ft from the SSW, period is 15-14 seconds, and the energy is around 1000. The morning is glassy – zero wind. The afternoon is clean with a light cross-offshore breeze. The file calls it "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". This is the other standout. Get up early.

The rest of the week tails off. Tuesday the 28th sees a light onshore and cross-onshore wind creep in, making it marginal. Wednesday the 29th is small and glassy early, but not much grunt.

From Thursday the 30th onwards, the swell drops right off. We’re looking at tiny, weak waves with strong onshore or cross-shore winds. The energy dips below 300. There’s a gap of several days with no real surf worth chasing.

So, in summary: the first weekend (July 18th afternoon) and the following Monday (July 27th) are the true standouts. Get on it.

Rusty.

Read more