Dumbea Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Right, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for this stretch of coast. The forecast has one real standout session, but it’s buried under a whole lot of average and poor conditions otherwise. There’s a sizable gap in the middle where I wouldn’t bother paddling out, and the second week looks messy for the most part.

We’ll start at Dumbea Rights. This is a consistent reef break, exposed to the SSW, that needs the right direction to work its magic. It’s an advanced wave, so keep that in mind. The water temp is sitting at 72° with an anomaly of 0.4°, which is about bang on average for this time of year. Not a thing to worry about there.

Your best shot comes Thursday afternoon, 27 August. We’ve got a clean 4ft SSW groundswell rolling in with a 15-second period – proper long-period energy, the kind that draws up nicely on a reef like this. Winds are glassy out of the south at 3 mph. The combined wave energy is a solid 664 (moderate), and the conditions are set to be glassy. This is the standout. It’s not massive, but it’s clean, the swell direction lines up perfectly with the optimum SSW, and it’s a true window of quality. Keep an eye on crowds – they can show up here sometimes.

From Friday morning, 28 August, things go downhill fast. The wind swings around and gets messy – cross-onshore and onshore, with the swell dropping off to 3ft to 4ft and short, weak periods. The combined energy falls to 315-982 (weak to moderate), and the surf conditions are poor. That run of bad or marginal surf stretches right through to Sunday, 31 August, with building swell but terrible wind. By Sunday morning, 30 August, the swell is 8ft but it’s onshore and choppy – not worth it.

Monday, 1 September starts to show some real size, but again, the wind is cross-shore and strong. The swell jumps to 8ft to 8ft with a very long 18-second period from the south, and the combined energy goes through the roof at 4408 (very strong). But the wind is a fresh cross-offshore 22 mph, which only just tidies it up. This is big, powerful, groundswell – but at that size and with that period, it’s experts-only, and it’s still a bit lumpy. The sweet spot is gone.

There is a big gap in genuinely good surf from Friday morning, 28 August all the way through to Thursday morning, 3 September, where we get a slight improvement. The swell stays around 7ft with a 14-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore at 9 mph. It’s marginal but rideable for those who are keen. The energy sits at 1482 (strong), but the quality is only so-so.

From Friday, 4 September, the swell drops again and the wind remains strong and cross-shore, with the odd clean window but not much push. The second week is a mixed bag of smaller swells with clean, strong winds (cross-off) but poor surf conditions. Nothing really stands out as good surfing.

To wrap it up: Thursday afternoon, 27 August, at Dumbea Rights is the only clear standout – glassy conditions, a nice 4ft SSW groundswell with good period, and all the ingredients for a clean session. Beyond that, it’s either too big and messy, or too small and windy. The long-range looks average at best, with strong winds dominating. If you can get out that Thursday, you’ve timed it perfectly. Otherwise, keep an eye on the forecasts – things might change.

Rusty.

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