Dumbea Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you: the next 16 days are a real mixed bag for Dumbea Rights. We’ve got a solid window of clean, cross-off winds starting Monday, but the swell is pretty jacked up and lumpy before that. The real standout is a big, long-period groundswell arriving on the final Sunday, but that’s a long way off. Let’s break it down.

The first few days are rough. Saturday and Sunday this weekend (1st and 2nd of August) are a write-off. Saturday morning has rain showers and a 22 mph cross-on southeasterly, making for lumpy, poor surf despite some 4ft SSW swell. The wave energy is moderate-to-strong (1125), but the quality is shot. Sunday gets even bigger with 10ft S swell, but the wind is still a messy cross-shore at 22 mph, leaving it lumpy and hard to manage. The energy is very strong (2564), but it’s not a paddle-surfing day.

Monday the 3rd of August is where things start to turn. The wind shifts to a clean cross-off from the ESE, 19 mph in the morning. The swell is still a solid 10ft from the south, with a 12-second period and strong energy (2435). This is going to be a serious, powerful wave—only for advanced surfers. If you’re an expert and you’re reading this, Monday morning is your best bet of the first week. The water temp is 73°F, which is about average for this time of year.

The trend then drops off. Tuesday the 4th has 8ft SE swell, dropping to 4ft by the afternoon, with a very long 17-second period. The energy is still moderate (1954 morning, 1596 afternoon), but the wave height is fading. By Wednesday the 5th, we’re down to 4ft and 3ft, with periods still long (16 and 15 seconds). The winds are clean, but the energy is weakening (910 and 706). It’s marginal.

From Thursday the 6th through to the second week of August, the swell drops right off. We’ve got a prolonged gap of small, poor conditions. Thursday the 6th morning has 3ft SSW swell and only 461 energy. By Sunday the 9th, we get a brief moment of glory: glassy conditions on the Sunday morning with 3ft ESE swell and a 9-second period. The energy is weak (403), but it’ll be clean and fun for a log. That’s a small highlight for the patient.

The lull continues through to Saturday the 15th. The swell rebuilds slowly, but the wind is often cross or cross-on, making it messy. The energy stays moderate, with a 6ft SSW swell on Saturday the 15th morning (1080 energy), but it’s a cross-shore wind, so it’ll be lumpy.

Now, the real standout is the very last day of the forecast. Sunday the 16th of August. The wind is a clean cross-off from the ESE, 25 mph, but the swell is a monster: 8ft to 8ft SSW swell with a very long 18 to 20-second period. The wave energy is massive (4802 and 5159). This is a powerful, long-period groundswell that will be breaking fast and straight if it’s a beach break, but at Dumbea Rights, a reef, it’ll hold shape. This is for experts only—over 8ft is too big for most. It’s a long way off, so keep an eye on it, but it promises to be the best day of the period if it holds.

Overall, if you’re looking for the best, Monday the 3rd morning for the big south swell, or the glassy Sunday the 9th morning for a small clean wave. The real gem is the Sunday the 16th, if you can wait.

Rusty.

Read more