Dumbea Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, straight up, the only show in town is Dumbea Rights. This is a consistent reef break that handles a solid SSW to S swell, and it’s exposed to it. The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is spot on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start. Sunday the 6th is a tease – we’ve got a solid 6 ft SSW swell running with a very long 16-second period, and the combined energy is strong (1684). The wind is a cross-off ESE breeze, so the waves will be clean. But the forecast is calling it marginal, so it might be a bit fat or the tide is off. Not a total write-off if you’re keen, but don’t expect perfection. Sunday afternoon, the wind picks up to 35 km/h, making it a lot harder.

Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th drop right off. Swell dips to 3 ft to 4 ft with weak energy (450-803), and the wind goes cross-on. It’s small and bumpy. Wednesday the 9th is much the same, with the wind spoiling it. The 16th period is gone, so don’t bother.

Thursday the 10th sees a little bump back up to 6 ft to 6 ft, but the wind is a messy cross-onshore, making it choppy. Not worth paddling out.

Now, Friday the 11th is a weird one. The swell is tiny at 2 ft to 3 ft, but the period is off the charts at 22 to 23 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell. The energy is moderate to strong (1046-2401), but it’s going to be super inconsistent. Wait for a set, and it might be a clean little wave, but you’ll be sitting there for a long time. The wind is a fresh cross-shore, so it’s lumpy. Probably not worth it.

This is where it gets interesting. Saturday the 12th is the real standout. We’ve got a proper pulse: 13 ft of SSW swell dropping to 12 ft in the afternoon, with a 17-second period. The combined energy is massive (9212). This is a big, powerful swell. The wind is a moderate cross-shore though, so it will be a bit bumpy, but the raw power is there. This is expert territory. If you’ve got the skills, this is the best day on offer, hands down.

Sunday the 13th, the swell drops to 8 ft, but the wind gets nasty again, cranking at 30-35 km/h. It’s going to be lumpy and messy.

Monday the 14th is another absolute bomb. The forecast shows 15 ft of S swell with a 17-second period, and the energy is off the charts (10604). The wind is a clean cross-off from the ESE. This is a massive, clean groundswell. The only catch is the forecast literally says it might be too big for this break. This is only for experts. If you can handle it, this is the best swell of the whole window.

The rest of the run is a slow fade. Tuesday the 15th still has 8 ft to 8 ft, but the wind is bumpy. From Wednesday the 16th onwards, the swell drops, and the wind stays on it. There are a few cross-off days (Thursday and Friday the 17th, Saturday the 19th, Sunday the 20th) but the swell is mostly 5 ft to 7 ft. It’s rideable, but nothing special compared to the 12th and 14th.

So, to wrap it up: Saturday the 12th and Monday the 14th are your two best bets. The 12th is a solid 13 ft SSW swell, and the 14th is a monster 15 ft S swell with clean wind. If you’re not an expert, stay out of the water on those days. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game. The first week is mostly a washout, but the second week has some promise, though it’s less certain.

Rusty.

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