Dumbea Rights Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a chat about what’s on the table for our region. It’s a mixed bag, but there’s a serious pulse of energy coming through, so let’s get into it.

The immediate window is a bit of a write-off. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are seeing a massive wall of south swell – pushing 10 ft on Monday afternoon with a long period of 17 seconds – but the wind is a howling cross-off or cross breeze, plus the conditions are marginal. That’s 19 to 25 mph ESE winds. It’s not going to be clean. The combined wave energy is massive (4913 to 5460) but it’s going to be a battle, and that’s only for experienced surfers at Dumbea Rights because it’s an exposed reef break. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no wetsuit drama.

Thursday the 17th is a total flat spot – we’re talking knee-high slop with onshore winds. Honestly, that’d be more fun for the kites than a surfboard.

A bit of a pulse returns on Friday the 18th, but it’s a lumpy cross-onshore mess with 8 ft to 10 ft SSW swell. The energy is high (3820) but the wind is a fresh 19 mph and onshore, making it a choppy nightmare. We’ll be passing on that.

From Saturday the 19th through to Tuesday the 23rd, the swell hangs around 8 ft to 8 ft from the SSW, with periods from 12 to a super-long 17 seconds. The big issue is the wind stays mostly cross or cross-onshore. It’s not glassy, but it’s not howling either. The combined energy is still moderate-to-strong (1000-3000 range). This is where Dumbea Rights starts to look more interesting for the experienced crew. The period is long, which will make the reef break stand up nicely, but it’s not firing on all cylinders due to the wind chop.

Here’s the standout: Saturday the 26th. That afternoon looks magic. We’ve got a moderate offshore breeze from the NE at 12 mph, and the conditions are promising very good surf. The swell is small – only 3 ft – but the period is a solid 14 seconds from the SSW, which means it’ll have a long, groundswell feel. The combined energy (594) is weak, but with perfect offshore wind and that period, the waves will be clean and lined up. Expect it to be busy.

The absolute winner, though, is Sunday the 27th afternoon. Glassy. Dead calm, glassy conditions with a WNW breeze at 3 mph. The swell is a modest 5 ft from the ESE with a short 6-second period – so not much power behind it, combined energy only 366 – but if you want silky smooth, fun waves with no wind, that’s your window. It’s a rare treat.

After that, the run collapses into smaller, onshore slop and we’re back to waiting.

So to sum it up: if you’re an expert looking for size and you can handle some wind, the period from the 19th to the 23rd has decent swell. But for the cleanest, most enjoyable waves, circle Saturday 26th afternoon (3 ft, offshore, clean) and Sunday 27th afternoon (5 ft, glassy). Those are the calls.

Catch you on the sand.
Rusty.

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