Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Looking at the next few weeks, I gotta be straight with you – it's a rough patch for Tauranga Bay. The whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off for decent surf. We've got a long stretch where the conditions just aren't coming together, so don't be holding your breath for a quick fix.

Starting off the forecast, we've got nothing on offer. Sunday the 6th is a total no-go, with a tiny 1.0ft swell from the ENE and a cross-on wind making it choppy and messy. The energy is weak at just 37. Monday the 7th actually sees a big jump in size – up to 8ft – but that's paired with a strong 25 mph cross-on wind and a weak, short-period 8-second swell. The combined energy hits 1155, but it's all wind and no shape. That's a mess for any surfer, and honestly, for a beach setup like this, it's looking more like a kiteboarding day than a paddle session.

The pattern doesn't improve. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th offer clean conditions with light offshore winds, but the swell is barely there – 3ft at best, dropping to 0.7ft. The energy is weak (113 and 24). For the rest of the first week and into the second, we're stuck in a rut. From Thursday the 10th all the way through to Monday the 21st of September, the swell is consistently tiny, mostly 1.0ft to 1ft, with a long period of 12-15 seconds from the NE. That long period at a beach break like this tends to make it break straight and gutless. The energy levels are pathetic, mostly under 100. The wind is often clean, but there's just no wave to work with.

There is one faint glimmer at the very end. On Saturday the 19th of September, we see a bump in size to 4ft from the NW, but it's a short-period 6-second swell. The energy is moderate (139), and the wind is offshore from the SW, making it clean. On Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st, the swell holds around 3ft to 5ft, but the wind swings cross-on and cross-shore, chopping it up. Even that last day, Monday the 21st, with a 5ft swell and 218 energy, is ruined by a 22 mph cross-shore wind.

So, what's the call? There's no standout here. The best of a bad bunch is probably the morning of Saturday the 19th of September. It's a long way out, so don't bank on it, but if the forecast holds, you'll have clean 3ft to 4ft waves from the NW. It's still short-period, so it won't be world-class, but it's the only window where you might get a few fun ones without getting blown off the water. For a beginner spot, this is the only time the size is safe. But honestly, it's a long wait for not much. The water temp is 61°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you're waiting for waves that aren't coming.

Rusty.

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