Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at our 16-day window for Tauranga Bay. To be straight with you, it’s a pretty bleak run for most of it. We’ve got a massive gap in quality surf, so don’t get your hopes up for the next week and a half. The first real day that’s worth paddling out doesn’t even show up until Tuesday the 28th.

For the first week, it’s a whole lot of nothing. We’ve got tiny, weak swell with poor conditions, and the wind is consistently ruining any chance of a wave. A few mornings around the 22nd and 23rd have clean-ish skies, but the swell is so small and weak (energy readings down in the teens and twenties) it’s barely a ripple. Then from the 24th, the wind really cranks up, smashing what little swell there is into a mess. By Friday the 25th, we get a bit of a long-period groundswell pushing through, but the energy is only moderate (144–157) and it’s still getting hammered by a fresh breeze, so it’s not surfable. The same goes for the weekend – more energy, but the wind is just too strong and cross. It’s a frustrating wait.

Finally, on Tuesday the 28th of July, things start to come together. This is the standout. The morning has a clean 3.3ft east-southeast swell, with a long 14-second period, and light offshore winds from the southwest. The energy is strong at 412, and it’s glassy. The afternoon is even better – the wind goes glassy, and the swell stays solid at 3.3ft, with the energy jumping to 447. The water temp is sitting at 61.7°, which is about normal for this time of year. This is the day to score. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and fun for a beginner to intermediate, especially with that long period giving the waves some shape.

Wednesday the 29th still has some clean glassy conditions in the morning, but the swell drops back to 2.6ft, and the energy is lower (236). It’s surfable, but nothing special. The wind swings onshore in the afternoon, so get it early.

The 31st of July sees a big jump in size – a 9.8ft swell – but it’s a total disaster. The wind is howling cross-onshore at 15 mph, and the energy is extreme (2050), but the conditions are just plain ugly. That’s a kite-surfing day, not a paddle day.

We get one more chance on Sunday the 2nd of August. The afternoon has a clean 4.9ft northwest swell with a moderate offshore wind. The energy is solid (326), and it’s clean. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s a bit of a short-period windswell, but it’s the best option in the second week. It’s still a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it, but it looks promising.

So, to sum it up: the 28th of July is your best bet. It’s not a pumping day, but it’s the only day where everything lines up for a really clean, fun session. The rest is a long stretch of waiting. Don’t bother with the rest until you see the forecast change.

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