Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, taking a look at the charts for the coming weeks. Let's be honest, it's a bit of a mixed bag, but there's a few windows worth keeping an eye on.

First off, the water temp is sitting pretty normal for this time of year, so no nasty surprises when you're suiting up.

The real action is a long way off, but there's a glimmer of hope. For the next few days, we're in a bit of a lull. Sunday and Monday the 26th and 27th of July offer up some small waves, but the conditions are a bit scrappy. Not worth rushing out for.

Things start to look a little more promising on Tuesday the 28th of July. Tauranga Bay will see a clean 2 ft swell from the ESE, with a very long 13-second period. That's proper groundswell energy. The morning is looking clean with a light offshore breeze from the S. You'll be paddling out into small, clean lines. The combined energy is moderate at 176, so it's not a powerhouse, but it will be fun. The fact it's a consistent break with a rare crowd is a bonus.

The standout, and the best on offer, looks to be Wednesday the 29th of July. Tauranga Bay picks up a slightly bigger 3 ft ESE swell, still with that lovely 13-second period. The combined energy climbs to a solid 246 (moderate). But the real kicker is the wind. Wednesday afternoon is forecast to be glassy. Absolutely flat calm. For a wave that's already clean, going glassy is a dream. It's a beginner-friendly break, so if you're learning, this is your window. The swell direction is a touch off the optimum NE, but with that energy and those conditions, it's the pick of the bunch.

The rest of the week after that gets messy. A strong NW windswell arrives on Friday the 31st of July with a 7 ft lump from the NNW, but it's short-period (7 seconds) and the wind is cross. That generates a strong 521 (strong wave energy) of combined energy, but it's going to be a chop-fest. Better for the kite crew than us paddle surfers.

There's a small reprieve on the 1st of August. Saturday morning sees a glassy 2 ft from the E with a decent 11-second period and 203 of combined energy. It's a small window before the wind picks up.

Then we hit a proper dry spell. From the 2nd of August right through to the 10th of August, the forecast is mostly poor. The swell is tiny, under 2 ft, or it's blown out by strong onshore winds. There's a few mornings with clean conditions and a small pulse, like the 6th of August seeing a 4 ft ENE swell, but it's short-period (6 seconds) and the wind swings cross-shore in the afternoon, ruining it. The 7th of August is similar, with a 4 ft NE swell but more cross-shore wind. It's just not coming together.

The only highlight in the second week is a small, clean window on Wednesday the 5th of August. The morning offers a tiny 2 ft ENE swell with a moderate offshore wind, giving you clean, small waves. It's nothing to get excited about, but it's better than the rest of the week.

For a long-range bet, keep an eye on the 10th of August. There's a small pulse of 3 ft ENE swell, but it's straight into a strong cross-shore wind. Not looking good.

So, to sum it up: nail Wednesday the 29th of July at Tauranga Bay for the best shot of the month. The rest is a waiting game. Don't get your hopes up for the second week, but you never know, the charts can change.

Rusty.

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