Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me have a look at what we've got coming up for Tauranga Bay over the next couple of weeks. I'll be straight with you – it's a grim stretch right now and for the foreseeable future.

The problem is we've got a consistent NE swell trying to wrap in, but the wind is just completely out of sorts for this place. For the next week, from now through until the 7th of September, we're looking at a constant cross-off or cross-shore breeze from the south and west, sometimes a cross-onshore, that's just chopping up any chance of clean, lined-up waves. The swell is small, barely peaking above 4 ft, and the energy is weak. For the first few days, Sunday the 30th to Tuesday the 1st, it's a clean enough look with those cross-off winds, but the swell is just too tiny – 4 ft dropping to 2 ft – and the combined energy is low. It's surfable, but believe me, you'll be scratching for scraps. Not a single day in that first week even rates as marginal; it's all "poor surf conditions."

Then we get a bit of a pulse around the 8th and 9th of September. The swell height bumps up to 5 ft to 7 ft, coming from the NNW with a period of 6-8 seconds. The combined energy jumps up – moderate to strong. But here's the kicker: the wind goes fresh and cross-off or cross-shore from the W or WSW. It's not totally blown out, but it's not good. It’s that “fresh cross-shore with lumpy cross-chop” kind of nasty. On the morning of the 10th, we get a hint of something, just a score of 1, which means it's *marginal* – just a hint that the swell is there, but the quality is suspect. At 7 ft, that's getting too big for beginners anyway, and a short 8-second period means it's not going to be well-shaped. It's a poor offering.

After the 11th, it drops right back down to nothing, below 2 ft. There is a slight glimmer on the morning of the 13th of September – again just a score of 1 – with a 2 ft NE swell and a light cross-off breeze, but that's barely a ripple. You'd be out there for the exercise.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day run, there is just about nothing to get excited about. The best of a bad bunch would have to be the morning of the 10th of September. The swell is up to 7 ft from the NNW, with strong energy, and the 12 mph cross-off from the WSW will keep it clean. But with that short 8-second period and the "marginal" call, it's a wildcard. If you're an expert and you just need to get wet, that's your shot. But for everyone else? I'd sit this one out. Wait for a proper groundswell and some glassy conditions. This place can fire, but not this fortnight.

Tauranga Bay on the mainland is just a no-go for the near future. The consistent NW wind is just too off for the NE exposure. It looks more like a spot for a stiff kite session than a paddle-out right now.

Rusty.

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