Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

Right, straight up, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this is a grim stretch for Tauranga Bay. The finder is basically giving us the cold shoulder, and when I look at the guidance, it’s a tough pill to swallow. For a break that’s usually fairly consistent, this is a real run of bad luck. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window with hardly a single window that’s worth paddling out for. The combined swell energy just doesn’t get going, and when it does, the wind is all wrong.

Let’s be honest, the first week is a write-off. We’ve got onshore winds, rain, and swell that’s either tiny or blown out. The one glimmer? Monday the 10th of August morning. The wind goes glassy, straight out of the ESE at 3 mph, and we’ve got a 5ft N swell with a period of 8 seconds. The water temp is sitting at 61°, which is about average for this time of year. The combined energy is 243 (moderate), so there’s some push. But the comment says it’s “surfable but very ordinary,” and I’d have to agree. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but it’s not a standout. The swell direction is N, which is okay for the bay, but it’s not its optimum NE. You’ll get a few, but don’t expect magic.

The rest of the first week is just noise. By Sunday the 9th, the swell bumps up to 5ft to 6ft, but it’s a short-period N windswell with a fresh breeze straight onshore. That’s a mess. The combined energy hits 336 (strong) on Sunday afternoon, but with 19 mph winds from the NNW, it’s just a washing machine. Not for surfing.

Moving into the second week, the pattern doesn’t really improve. We get a few mornings with clean, offshore winds, like on the 16th and 17th of August, but the swell drops right off. The combined energy plummets to 106 and then 81 (weak). The 18th of August morning has a light SSW offshore at 6 mph, but the swell is only 2ft from the ENE with a period of 9 seconds. It’s clean, but ankle-snappers. The 20th of August morning also looks clean with a moderate S offshore, but again, the swell is tiny at 1ft.

The absolute best of the whole run, if you can call it that, is the morning of Saturday the 15th of August. We’ve got a 4ft NE swell with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is 394 (strong). The wind is W at 12 mph, which is cross-shore. It’s not perfect, but it’s the most energy we see all window. The swell direction is NE, which is Tauranga Bay’s optimum, so it will be wrapping in nicely. The difficulty is beginner, so it’s a good one for the learners if the conditions hold. The crowds are “rare,” so you’ll have it mostly to yourself. But honestly, with that cross-shore chop, it’s not going to be a classic.

Because of the significant swell energy on the 9th and 14th with strong onshore winds, this break is a beach-and-reef setup. Honestly, for a few of those days, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, if you’re desperate, the 10th of August morning is your best bet for clean glass, and the 15th of August morning for the most swell. But don’t set your expectations high. It’s a lean spell. The forecasts can always change, but for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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