Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Tauranga Bay. Look, I’m not gonna lie, the next few days are a bit of a grind. We’ve got a run of small, pretty ordinary surf ahead, but there’s a proper pulse of energy lurking in the second week that’s got my heart racing. Hold tight.

The first real window of anything worth paddling out for is this Thursday afternoon, the 9th of July. It’s not a classic, but you’ll find waist-high waves around 2.6ft from the ESE, with a 10-second period. The wind is a solid offshore from the S at 15 mph, which will keep the faces reasonably clean. The water is sitting at 62°, which is about what you’d expect for this time of year, so no surprises there. The combined energy is moderate (143), so there’s a bit of push, but the conditions are still ‘very ordinary’ – it’s more of a warm-up than a day to write home about.

Friday the 10th sees a tiny bump in size. The morning is a write-off with strong southerly winds, but the afternoon cleans up nicely. The wind drops to 12 mph offshore, and the swell lifts to 3.9ft from the ESE, still at 10 seconds. The energy jumps to moderate (278) and the models are saying “expect good surf conditions.” This is probably the pick of the first few days, but it’s far from a standout.

Saturday morning, the 11th, offers a window of pure glass. The wind goes dead calm, with a light SSE breeze at 3 mph, and the swell is a clean 3.3ft from the ESE. It’s not big, but the glassy surface will make the most of it. The afternoon holds steady with a light cross-off breeze.

Sunday the 12th sees the swell dropping a touch, with chest-high waves in the morning but a cross-off wind that keeps it tidy. By the afternoon, the wind swings onshore and the quality drops off a cliff.

From Monday the 13th right through to about Thursday the 16th, it’s pretty grim. The swell becomes tiny – ankle to knee-high – and the winds are mostly onshore or messy. There’s a gap of quiet days here where you’re better off fixing the wax on your board than actually using it.

Now, Friday the 17th of July, things start to get interesting. The swell is still small (1.6ft from the E), but the period jumps to a very long 17 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (226). That’s a long-period groundswell rolling in, and with a clean offshore SSW wind at 12 mph, the sets will be clean and well-shaped. It’s a tease of what’s coming.

Saturday the 18th is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning has a clean 2.0ft ESE swell with a 14-second period and light offshore winds – nice for a mellow session. But the afternoon brings a sudden jump to 5.9ft from the NNE, but with a short 7-second period and a cross-shore wind. The energy is strong (436), but it’s a messy, lumpy affair.

Now, here’s the standout. Sunday the 19th of July. The swell is predicted to be massive – 16.4ft from the NNE with a 10-second period, and the combined energy is absolutely pumping (5007). The wind is light offshore from the SSE. But here’s the honest truth: this is way too big for Tauranga Bay. It’s a beginner-friendly break, and at that size, it’s only for experts – and even then, it’s going to be a heavy, dangerous beast. The models say “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” I’d say this one’s for the spectators, not the paddlers.

Monday the 20th of July is the real sweet spot. The swell has dropped to a still-very-chunky 11.5ft from the NNE in the morning, with a long 11-second period. The wind is glassy. The energy is strong (2726). The conditions are “excellent for experienced surfers.” This is a proper, heavy groundswell with clean, glassy faces. If you’ve got the chops, this is the day. The afternoon drops to 8.2ft, still glassy, and still excellent – a bit more manageable.

Tuesday the 21st holds in at 7.9ft from the NNE in the morning, with a clean cross-off wind and a 10-second period. The energy is strong (1309). Expect very good surf, but it’s a step down from the glassy perfection of the day before.

After that, the wind gets ugly and the swell fades fast. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd are messy and small, and by Friday the 24th, we’re back to onshore junk with a 5.9ft windswell and a risk of thunderstorms.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a struggle. The standout is the Monday the 20th of July – that 11.5ft glassy groundswell is the one to aim for. Sunday the 19th is a monster, but it’s too big for this spot. Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th are nice appetisers. Get out there when you can.

R

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