Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you — it’s a tough stretch ahead for Tauranga Bay. The whole 16-day window is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. There’s a long gap before we even get a whisper of something rideable, and even then, it’s nothing to get excited about.

The first couple of days are flat as a tack. Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th have tiny 0.3 ft swells from the NE. The water temp is sitting at 60°, which is pretty close to the usual for this time of year, so no surprises there. Tuesday morning is clean but there’s nothing to ride, and by the afternoon a light cross-onshore breeze messes up the surface.

We crawl into Thursday the 27th morning with a glassy 0.7 ft NNE swell, still unrideable. Friday the 28th sees the swell bump up to 3 ft, but it’s a short-period, wind-affected mess with onshore winds. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine.

Now, come Saturday the 29th, we get a bit of energy — swell hits 5 ft from the NNE with a combined energy of 212 (moderate wave energy). But here’s the catch: the period is a shocking 7 seconds, and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore with a risk of thunderstorms and rain. It’s sloppy, lumpy, and not worth paddling out. If you’re into kite surfing, that strong onshore wind and chunky windswell could be your jam, but for a surfboard? Hard pass.

Sunday the 30th morning is the only real bright spot, and I use that term loosely. Swell is 3 ft from the NE, 10-second period, and we’ve got a light cross-offshore breeze from the SW. The combined swell energy is 190 (moderate). It’s clean, but the wave comment calls it “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” One metre and clean is about all Tauranga Bay has to offer in this whole outlook. Even then, this break is a beginner-friendly, consistent spot with rare crowds — but you’ll be fighting for scraps.

After that, it fades fast. Monday the 31st morning has a fresh offshore breeze and a tiny 2 ft NE swell — too small and gutless. The rest of the first week and into September is a parade of tiny, short-period swells with cross-shore or onshore winds. By the second week, from the 2nd of September onward, the swell drops to between 0.7 ft and 2 ft. The energy numbers are all under 100 (weak), and the winds are all wrong — either onshore, cross-onshore, or cross-shore choppy.

So, to sum it up: a massive 14-day gap with basically nothing ridable. Sunday the 30th morning is your only look-in, and it’s a meek one-metre, clean, but ordinary wave. If you’re desperate, paddle out then. Otherwise, the forecast might change — these things often do — but right now, Tauranga Bay is not the place to be.

Rusty.

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