Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’re looking at a solid run of surf at Tauranga Bay, but the standout days are further out, so patience is the name of the game.

The week kicks off with a bit of energy, but conditions are a mixed bag. Monday the 10th has a clean morning with 5ft of north swell and light offshore SSE wind—that’s a good start for beginners, but the crowd factor is rare so you might have it to yourself. Water temp is 61°, which is pretty normal for this time of year. Monday afternoon turns cross-shore and drops off. Tuesday the 11th sees a morning clean-up with 5ft NNE swell and cross-off wind, but by afternoon the chop takes over. Wednesday the 12th is a write-off with onshore wind and rain.

Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are small and weak—under 3ft, with short-period slop. There’s a brief glassy window Friday morning with 3ft NE swell, but it’s ordinary. The weekend (15th–17th) stays small and clean but barely surfable, with swell dropping to 2–2ft. A gap of a few days with nothing worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday the 18th morning is a real highlight: 5ft east swell at 10 seconds, light cross-off wind, and the combined energy is a solid 405 (moderate). This is clean and has some push—great for a beginner-friendly wave. The swell direction (E) isn’t a perfect match to the optimum NE, but the quality is there.

Then we hit a big lull from the 19th through to the 21st, with tiny, weak waves and combined energy dropping to as low as 19. The 22nd picks up to 7ft east swell, but strong ESE wind (30 km/h) messes it up—honestly, with that wind and a beach setup, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The real standouts are the last few days. Sunday the 23rd has a massive 15ft ENE groundswell with a very long 12-second period, but combined energy is through the roof at 9913 (very strong). That’s way too big for anyone but absolute experts—and even then, it’s a beast. Monday the 24th is the pick of the whole outlook: 10ft ENE swell at 12 seconds, light offshore S wind, and a combined energy of 2544. This is excellent for experienced surfers only—over 8ft, so stay away if you’re not solid. The period is long, so the point break setup at Tauranga Bay will handle it well. Tuesday the 25th cleans up nicely with 6ft east swell and cross-off wind, good for most.

Best on offer: Tuesday morning the 18th for beginners and intermediates, and Monday the 24th for experienced surfers. The long-range stuff is promising but less certain, so keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty.

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