Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the next fortnight or so at Tauranga Bay is looking flat and pretty grim for surf. There’s a real dry spell from now through to the first week of September, with barely a ripple worth paddling for. The only flicker of something surfable shows up in the second week, but even that’s a marginal call.

We start on Thursday 27 August with absolutely nothing – glassy morning winds but a tiny 0.7ft swell from the NNE with a weak 10-second period. Combined energy is a paltry 16. Afternoon picks up a light 1ft from the NE, but still flat as a tack. Friday 28 August sees a jump to 4ft Friday morning, but it’s a messy short-period 5-second windswell from the NNE with onshore winds at 15 mph, so it’s choppy and blown out. The energy only reaches 70. Friday afternoon gets a bit more size – 5ft – but the period is still a short 6 seconds and the wind cranks to 19 mph onshore. Energy climbs to 156, but it’s poor quality. Saturday 29 August looks like the biggest swell of the run with 8ft from the NNE, period 8 seconds, and a combined energy of 726. That’s moderate-to-strong energy, but with a risk of thunderstorms and onshore northerlies at 12 mph, the surf will be messy and tough. A bit of a drop to 7ft in the afternoon with some rain showers and a cross-shore wind from the east at 6 mph – that session is rated marginal at best. This is too big for beginners, and for the experienced, the wind and short period spoil it. Water temp sits at 60°F – that’s about average for the time of year, with the anomaly only 1°F above normal.

Sunday 30 August through to early September is a drawn-out fade. Swell drops to 4ft Sunday morning from the NE with a clean cross-offshore southwesterly at 12 mph, but the energy is moderate at 195. It’s surfable but not exciting. Monday 31 August sees 3ft NE swell with similar clean wind, energy falling to 120. Tuesday 1 September is 3ft still, clean wind, energy 110. Everything from there into the following week is under 3ft and often with onshore or cross-shore winds – loads of days with combined energy below 100. Nothing worth a dawny.

Then on Tuesday 8 September, we get a bit of a pulse from the northwest. Morning shows 5ft NW swell, period 7 seconds, combined energy 307. Winds are light cross-shore from the west at 6 mph, making it a marginal call – there might be a few clean-ish ones if the tide and sandbars line up. Thursday 10 September has another 5ft NW swell in the morning with clean cross-offshore wind from the WSW at 12 mph, energy 380. That’s the best of the outlook but still only marginal. Keep an eye on that Thursday morning if you’re desperate, but don’t get your hopes up.

Bottom line: no standout sessions. The first week is basically a total write-off. The second week has tiny windows of small, short-period NW swell that might offer a few rideable waves if the wind plays nice, but nothing to get excited about. If you’re a beginner, the only time it’s small enough is most days after the first week, but the conditions aren’t great. For the experienced, the bigger 8ft day on the 29th is onshore and short-period. Tauranga Bay is a consistent break, so this flat run is a bit of a bummer – it won’t stay this way forever.

Take it easy.
Rusty

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