Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Lookin’ at the charts for Tauranga Bay, it’s a bit of a slow burner. We’ve got a long stretch of small, messy surf ahead, but there’s a little window of hope right at the end of the run. The water’s sittin’ at 62°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

The week kicks off with a few small pulses from the ESE, but it’s nothin’ to get excited about. Sunday the 19th has some 2ft swell from the ESE with a 13-second period, but the wind’s a cross-off. The combined energy’s weak at 108, so it’s surfable but very ordinary. Monday the 20th morning goes glassy with a slight offshore breeze, but the swell drops to 1ft – it’s tiny, clean, but barely a ripple. Monday afternoon goes dead calm, glassy as a lake, but again, just 1ft. Tuesday the 21st morning sees a little bump to 2ft, short period of 7 seconds, but the wind’s a clean offshore. Not great shape, but at least it’s clean. Then Tuesday arvo it gets a bit bigger to 3ft, but the wind swings SE at 12 mph and it’s cross-off with rain showers – poor conditions.

From Wednesday the 22nd all the way through to Thursday the 30th, it’s pretty grim. We’re talkin’ waves under 3ft, cross-shore or onshore winds, and combined energy mostly in the weak double digits. There’s a day on the 24th with a 5ft swell from the NW, but the period is a pathetic 4 seconds and the wind is howlin’ at 22 mph from the west – that’s a lumpy, choppy mess, only for the crazy ones. The 25th and 26th are no better – cross-winds and small, sloppy surf. Honestly, this stretch is a write-off for paddle surfing. With the wind and swell combo, it’d be more interesting for kite surfing than trying to catch a wave on a log.

Now, here’s the glimmer. Friday the 31st of July morning. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the NNW, period of 7 seconds, and light WSW winds at 6 mph, making it cross-off and clean. The combined energy jumps to 293 – that’s moderate energy, and it’s the first real pulse of the whole outlook. The swell direction is from the NNW, which is a fair match for the break’s optimum NE direction. The conditions are clean, and the size is solid. This is the standout. It’s still a couple of weeks out, so don’t bank on it, but it’s the only session that’s worth marking on the calendar. The Friday afternoon holds at 5ft, still clean, but the morning is the pick.

After that, Saturday the 1st of August goes back to onshore slop, and Sunday the 2nd has a 1ft groundswell from the NE with a long 14-second period, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph offshore – clean, but the swell’s too small to do much with. The long period might make it a bit too straight for the beach break, but it’s a point break setup here, so it could hold some shape. But honestly, the size is just too weak.

So, if you’re keen, save your energy for the morning of Friday the 31st of July. It’s the one true standout in a long flat spell. The rest of the time, you’re better off workin’ on your pop-ups or checkin’ the forecast again.

Rusty.

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