Tauranga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at what’s on offer around here. I’m Rusty, and I’ll be straight with you.

First up, the big picture: this stretch of coast is in for a lean run. The forecast shows a long stretch of small, weak swells with messy winds, and for the first week and a half, there’s really nothing to get excited about. The only real standout is a few days around the 12th of September, where things finally start to shape up. But don’t get your hopes up too early – there’s a lot of flat to wade through before that.

Let’s walk through it. From Monday the 31st of August right through to the end of the first week of September, the swell is tiny, barely 1 ft to 3 ft, with periods mostly under 10 seconds. The wind is either cross-off or cross-shore, and while Monday morning and afternoon are clean, the combined energy is weak – just 99 at best. That’s not enough to push a decent wave. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd see small 1 ft swell with cross-shore winds, some chop, and energy still in the doldrums – 28 to 34. Not worth paddling out for. Friday the 4th brings a bit more swell height (3 ft to 5 ft) but it’s a short-period, mixed up NW swell with strong cross-on winds, energy climbing to 178 but the surf is lumpy and messy. Saturday the 5th offers a rare glassy morning on the 1 ft NE swell, but it’s still too small to do anything with. The rest of that weekend and into the next week is a write-off – strong winds, cross-on, and fully messy.

Now, the one bright spot. Around Saturday the 12th of September, the swell starts to show some life. Swell height climbs to 4 ft, with a period of 9-10 seconds, and the wind goes light cross-off from the SW – clean conditions. The combined energy jumps to 373 on Saturday morning, which is moderate wave energy. That’s the best we’ll see. Tauranga Bay (a fairly exposed NE-facing spot) is where you want to be. The swell direction from the NE is bang on for this break. The wind is light and cross-off, so the surf will be clean. Keep in mind, this is still a beginner-friendly size, so it’s good for all levels. The water temp is still about average for the season. On Sunday the 13th, the swell drops a little to 4 ft with a SE direction, still clean but more ordinary. By Monday the 14th, it’s fading again.

So, if you’re hanging for a paddle, target the morning of the 12th of September. That’s the real standout. Everything before that is a waiting game, and after that, it trails off. The long-range call is promising but not a certainty – the closer you get, the better you’ll know.

Rusty.

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