Soup Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the coming weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough outlook. For the next week and a half, the wind is just not our friend. It's a relentless cross-onshore breeze from the east, which is going to keep things choppy and lumpy. There's some swell around, but it's not going to be the clean, rippable stuff we're after. The best bet, and really the only flicker of light in this whole period, is a small window on Friday morning, July 31st, at Soup Bowl (an advanced reef break). It's not perfect, but it's the closest we get.

The water is sitting at 84° right now, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no wetsuit worries there.

Here's how it plays out. We start with a solid 8ft swell from the ENE on Thursday the 30th, but that 22 mph cross-onshore wind is going to make a mess of it. The combined energy is a moderate 669, but it's just not clean.

Friday morning, July 31st, is your best shot. The swell drops a touch to 7ft from the ENE, but more importantly, the wind eases right back to a gentle 9 mph cross-shore breeze. It's still a little crossed-up, but it's the calmest we'll see. The combined energy is a solid 539. This is the one to circle. It's an advanced wave, so you'll need your wits about you, but it's the only real chance of a glassy-ish session. The afternoon gets a bit windier and messier, so get on it early.

After that, it's a long, dry spell. From Saturday, August 1st, right through to the end of the second week, the wind swings back to a strong cross-onshore, and the swell quality drops right off. The waves are small, the period is short, and the wind is just ruining it. The combined energy dips down to as low as 116, which is weak. There's a brief pulse of energy around 8ft on August 12th and 13th, with combined energy pushing into the 700s, but again, it's accompanied by choppy, onshore winds. For a reef break like Soup Bowl, that's just not going to be fun. It's more of a windy mess than a surfable wave. Honestly, it looks like a better setup for kite surfing than a proper paddle session.

The outlook is grim for a while, but it’s a consistent spot, so don't lose hope. Forecasts can change, and we could see a shift in the wind pattern. But for now, if you're paddling out, make it Friday morning.

Rusty.

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