Soup Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get real about what’s coming up. We’ve got one spot on the radar for this whole 16-day stretch, and it’s a tough pill to swallow for anyone looking to get wet.

The story for the next two weeks is a frustrating one. We’re looking at a solid stretch of poor conditions right through the first week and into the second. The wind is locked in from the east, blowing cross-onshore to fresh cross-onshore most days, and that’s just going to chop everything up. The swell is mostly small, between 3ft and 4ft, with a short period around 7 to 8 seconds, so the energy is weak (146 to 209). The water is sitting at 84°, which is about normal for this time of year.

Now, the one break we’ve got is Soup Bowl. It’s a powerful reef break, advanced only, and it needs that northeast swell to really light up. The problem is, the wind is almost always on it from the east, which is a cross-onshore. That’s a buzzkill for a wave that needs to be glassy. The swell direction is ENE to E, and the period stays short, so it’s not going to have any real push.

The best chance for a decent surf comes on Wednesday, September 16th, in the morning. We see a bump in swell to 6ft, a slightly longer period of 9 seconds, and the wind drops to a gentle breeze. The energy jumps to 814 (moderate), which is a real glimmer of hope. It’s still cross-onshore, but the lighter wind means it might be less of a mess. It’s still a marginal call, though, and the tide might be a factor. This is the only standout, but don’t get too excited—it’s a long way off and the forecast is shaky.

For the rest of the run, from September 2nd right through to September 17th, it’s pretty much a write-off. The swell gets bigger on the 9th, 12th, and 17th, hitting 7ft to 7ft, but the wind is howling at 18-22 mph, making it lumpy and blown-out. That kind of size with that wind is just a washing machine. For a reef like Soup Bowl, that’s not surfable for anyone, and it’s honestly more interesting for the kite surfers than paddle surfers.

So, bottom line: there’s one date to circle—September 16th morning—but treat it as a long shot. The rest of the outlook is a bummer. It’s a tough period for this region, but it never stays bad forever. Keep an eye on the sky, and we’ll see what shakes out.

Rusty.

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