Soup Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is a tough stretch for surf. We’ve got a solid run of swell, but the wind is just wrecking it the whole way through.

The Overall Picture

Right now and for the foreseeable future, we’re looking at a constant stream of east-northeast swell hitting Soup Bowl (advanced reef). The problem? The wind is locked in from the east as a fresh cross-onshore breeze, or often stronger, and it’s not letting up. This means every session is either lumpy, choppy, or messy. The combined wave energy is moderate for the first few days, around 519, but it builds into strong territory mid-week, hitting 1036 on Thursday, July 9th. That’s a lot of power, but the onshore wind means those waves will be closing out and hard to ride. The water temp is a warm 83°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick wetsuit.

The 16-Day Run

On Monday, July 6th, the morning has a risk of thunderstorms with 19 mph cross-onshore winds. Swell is 6 ft from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds. Not good. That trend continues straight through Tuesday and Wednesday, with the swell building to 8 ft by Wednesday. The wind actually picks up to 28 mph on Wednesday afternoon—that’s a strong breeze, and the wave comment says “strong cross-onshore and messy.” Hard pass.

Thursday, July 9th, sees the peak of the energy at 1036, with swell hitting 8 ft. But again, the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 22 mph. The wave state is “fresh cross-onshore and lumpy.” This is expert-only territory size-wise, but the quality is poor. The same story repeats all the way through the weekend and into the following week.

From July 13th onward, the swell drops a little, to around 5 ft–6 ft, but the wind remains a stubborn moderate to fresh cross-onshore breeze. The period drops to 7 seconds for a few days, making it weak and short-period chop. Even the morning of July 21st, the last day in the data, is showing 5 ft swell from the east with a 7-second period and 16 mph cross-onshore wind. It’s all the same: poor surf conditions.

The Standout (If You Can Call It That)

Honestly, there’s no standout here. It’s a full 16-day stretch with zero good options. The swell is there—moderate to strong energy—but the wind direction and strength ruin every single session. Soup Bowl is an exposed reef that needs clean conditions, and it’s not getting them. If you’re a kiter, this east wind setup might get you going, but for a surfer with a paddle, this is a blank run. For this area, having a long stretch like this isn’t unheard of when the trades lock in. All we can do is wait for the forecast to turn.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the charts. Things can change.

Rusty.

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