Soup Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted, folks. This is one of those outlooks where I sit here scratching my head, wondering what the ocean's got against us. We're looking at a full 16-day window and honestly, there isn't a single moment I'd be paddling out at Soup Bowl. Not one. The data is clear across the board, with every single session flagged as poor surf conditions.

The core problem is the wind. It's just relentless. All period, we're looking at cross-onshore winds that never really let up. It starts with a fresh breeze out of the east at 22 mph on Saturday the 15th and just doesn't quit. We'll see some brief dips to a moderate 9 mph breeze on Tuesday the 18th, but it's straight back up again. The "poor surf conditions" comment is attached to every single forecast point, from the start right through to Sunday the 30th.

Even when the swell does show some life, it's going to be a mess. Let's be real, the opening weekend is just ugly. Saturday morning the 15th has 10ft of cross-on swell, but with that 22 mph easterly wind, it's going to be a lumpy, blown-out mess. Only for the truly unhinged, and honestly, probably more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle guys. The energy is strong, with a combined energy value of 1670, but it's completely wasted.

There's a glimmer of something around the 24th and 25th. We see the swell period jump up to 13 seconds, and the energy readings spike to 1158. This is that long-period groundswell we dream about, 6ft to 7ft, but the wind is still going to be howling out of the east-northeast at 19-22 mph. For a reef break like Soup Bowl, which has an optimum swell from the NE, the direction is right, but the surface conditions will be pure carnage. It's a proper "what could have been" scenario. But, you know, that's long-range stuff, so it's promising but you can't bet the house on it.

For the rest of the window, we hover around 4ft to 7ft, with periods mostly in the 7-8 second range. The energy is moderate at best, with values mostly in the 200-400 range, but it doesn't matter. The wave comment stays the same: "poor surf conditions." It's a total write-off.

Water temp is 84°F at the start, which is about normal for this time of year, so that's one small mercy. But the waves are just going to be a choppy, wind-blown mess. The consistency of Soup Bowl is high, so it's not like the area is prone to this. A blank run like this is pretty unusual for a spot that's normally so reliable. But forecasts can change, and with a break this consistent, it tends not to stay poor for long. We just have to wait for the wind to ease off. For now, keep the board in the car.

Rusty.

Read more