Soup Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it for Soup Bowl. This ain’t the prettiest picture I’ve seen for a while, but there’s some serious grunt showing up later, even if the conditions are gonna make you work for it.

Right off the bat, from Monday the 24th of August all the way through to the first week of September, we’re looking at a real battle. The wind has got a stubborn easterly component on it, blowing cross-on shore. It’s going to be choppy and lumpy, and the wave quality is just not there. On Monday and Tuesday, we’ve got modest swell around 3 ft to 6 ft, but it’s short-period windswell of 7 to 8 seconds, and the energy is only moderate (159 to 407). Nothing to get excited about. Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th push up a bit with swell heights around 6 ft to 6 ft, and the energy creeps into moderate territory (448 to 495), but that same onshore breeze is just tearing it up. Friday the 28th sees a little dip, then Saturday the 29th kicks up to 7 ft with energy jumping to 595, but the wind is up to 19-22 mph, making it a lumpy mess. It’s a long stretch of poor surf, honestly. You’d be better off with a kite at a beach break this whole first week – the setup is more interesting for that than for paddling into these bumpy lines.

Now, things get interesting on Sunday the 30th of August, but don’t expect perfection. We see a major spike in period, hitting 14 seconds from the ENE, with the swell dropping to 6 ft. The combined energy rockets up to 1536, which is strong, and by Sunday afternoon that builds slightly to 7 ft with a 13-second period and energy at 1582. This is proper groundswell. The problem? The wind is still a cross-on easterly at 15-19 mph. So we’ve got power, but it’s going to be a rough, bumpy ride. The long period makes it better for a reef like this, but it’ll be breaking fast and you’ll have to deal with the chop. Monday the 31st stays decent with 5 ft from the NE at an 11-second period (energy 771), but again, the cross-on wind stays.

The standout, if you can call it that, is looking towards Sunday the 6th of September. The swell builds again to 7 ft to 7 ft from the E, with the energy climbing to 667 and then 724. The wind, unfortunately, is still howling from the east at 22 mph with some risk of thunderstorms by the afternoon. This is expert-only territory with that size and those winds. The water temperature anomaly isn't specified in the data, but for the time of year, it’s feeling about normal here at Soup Bowl.

The bottom line: The entire 16-day window is plagued by persistent cross-onshore winds. There are some big, powerful swells rolling through, especially around the 30th and again on the 6th of September, but the conditions are consistently poor. The best on offer is arguably the weekend of the 30th of August through to the 31st, where the long-period, strong groundswell gives you the most punch, but you’ll have to surf through lumpy, choppy conditions. If you’re an experienced surfer who doesn’t mind a battle for a few good ones, that’s your window. Beginners, give this whole period a miss – anything over 5 ft is a handful, and here it’s mostly messy.

Rusty.

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