Soup Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get this straight. It’s gonna be a tough stretch for a while. Soup Bowl is the only spot on the radar, and honestly, the conditions are not playing nice. The water is sitting at a warm 84°F, which is pretty much on the money for this time of year, so that’s one thing we don't have to worry about.

We kick things off with some hope on Sunday morning the 30th. There’s swell in the water, 7ft of it from the ENE with a 10-second period, giving us moderate energy (1068). But the ESE wind is junk – a cross-shore that’s putting a slight chop on it. It’s not hopeless, but it’s far from clean. By the afternoon, forget it, the wind picks up and it’s a cross-on mess. That’s the reality for the entire first week, right through to Saturday the 5th. Consistent swell, sure – mostly in the 5ft to 6ft range – but the easterly cross-on winds, ranging from 15 to 22 mph, are just shredding the surface. There’s a period on the 2nd and 3rd where the swell drops to around 3ft and the period falls to 7 seconds, so it’s weak and short-period, which is just frustrating. The wave energy stays low in the low hundreds, and it’s just not worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s the thing. Starting Sunday the 6th, the swell starts to build. By Monday the 7th, we’re looking at 8ft to 8ft of easterly swell, with the energy jumping into the strong range (651 to 814). It’s still cross-on and lumpy as hell though, so it’s not user-friendly. And it keeps building. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th see that swell hold in the 7ft to 8ft range. The energy is strong, but the wind stays relentless. Thursday the 10th brings the strongest winds of the period, hitting 25 mph from the E, making it a proper mess. This is more than just a bad surf day; at this size and with that onshore wind, the setup is looking more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

After that, we see it slowly fade out. From Friday the 11th through to the end of the window on Monday the 14th, the swell backs down from 5ft to 4ft, with the period dropping back to 7 or 8 seconds and energy levels weakening. The wind stays in that 15-22 mph cross-on range, so it’s still not going to be clean.

Bottom line? Don’t get too excited. There’s a lot of swell on offer, which is good, but it’s all been blown out. The only window that might have a bit of pulse is Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th, when the swell is solid and the energy is high, but the wind is the killer. If you have to go, go early, take the lumps, and understand it’s going to be a grind. Otherwise, wait for this stretch of easterly wind to break. It can’t stay this bad forever. Forecasts change.

Rusty

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