Skeleton Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Skeleton Bay. This is a world-class point break, but it’s a fickle beast – it’s inconsistent, so when it lines up, you’ve got to be ready. The 16-day window is a real mixed bag, with a long stretch of wind-battered junk in the middle.

We start off on Sunday, 2 August, with a small SW swell, about 4ft, and a 12-second period. But the wind is a cross-onshore breeze from the south, so the surface is choppy and the wave quality is poor. That’s not where you want to be. Monday, 3 August, is a little better with a similar sized swell and a longer 14-second period, but the conditions are still only marginal, with a cross-onshore wind in the morning. The afternoon sees a light onshore breeze from the SSW, which cleans it up a bit, but it’s still not great.

Tuesday, 4 August, sees the swell bump up a touch to 5ft, but a strong offshore from the NNW is blowing 19 mph, making it look clean but the wind is howling. The wave energy is moderate at 565. Wednesday, 5 August, is the first real glimpse of hope. The swell drops to 3ft, but the wind goes light and offshore from the NNW in the morning, making for clean, fun waves. The energy is moderate (410). It’s a small day, but it’s a good one for a log or a mid-length.

Then the door slams shut. From Thursday, 6 August, all the way through to Wednesday, 12 August, it’s a write-off. The wind is relentless from the south and southeast, often blowing 16 to 34 mph, creating choppy, blown-out, and lumpy conditions. The swell is there, even getting up to 8ft with a long 16-second period on Friday, 7 August, but it’s a complete mess. The combined wave energy is strong (2422), but it’s unrideable with that wind. For a beach break, this might be kite-surfing weather, but here at the point, it’s just a washout. This is a solid 6-day gap with no real surf.

Thursday, 13 August, is still a struggle. The swell is 5ft with a 15-second period, and the wave energy is strong (1377), but the wind is a cross-shore from the SE, making it lumpy. Only marginal at best.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday, 14 August. This is the one you circle on the calendar. We’ve got a solid 7ft SW swell, with a 14-second period, and the wind is a gentle offshore from the NE. The combined energy is strong (1504). This is the bill for experienced surfers only – that’s a proper size for the bay. The wave quality is excellent, and the wind is clean. The crowd factor is something to keep in mind though; Skeleton Bay is often crowded, and with a day like this, expect it to be busy.

The weekend eases off. Saturday, 15 August, is a great follow-up. The swell drops to 4ft, but the wind is light and cross-offshore in the afternoon, making for very clean conditions and a wave energy of 662. Sunday, 16 August, stays small at 4ft with a cross-offshore breeze, promising good surf. Then Monday, 17 August, ends the outlook on a high note with a 5ft SW swell, a 12-second period, and a gentle cross-offshore wind, giving very good conditions and a moderate energy of 549.

So, if you’re picking a winner, Friday, 14 August is the big one – a powerful, clean SW groundswell with offshore winds, but it’s for the experienced crew. For a more relaxed, fun session, aim for Wednesday, 5 August, Saturday, 15 August, or Sunday, 16 August. The long-range stuff like Monday, 17 August looks promising, but it’s a bit further out, so keep an eye on it.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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