Silencios Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’ll be honest with you – the next 16 days at Silencios are a grind. This is a reef break that's inconsistent at the best of times, so a stretch of poor surf is pretty normal around here. There’s no standout day where the stars line up for a proper surf. The water’s sitting at 68°F to start, which is a full 6°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s real unusual.

We kick off on Saturday afternoon, the 29th of August. There's some size with a 6ft swell from the SW, and the period is a solid 14 seconds, which is a long-period groundswell. The problem is the wind – it's a cross-on at 9 mph, making it choppy. The wave energy is moderate (1042). It’s a groomable size but the wind kills it for a clean ride.

Sunday the 30th sees the swell dropping slightly to 5ft in the morning, still from the SW with a 13-second period. The wind is lighter at 6 mph but still cross-on, so you're getting small wind ripples on the face. Energy drops a bit (882). The afternoon goes downhill with more wind.

Monday the 31st through Tuesday the 1st of September is a write-off – poor surf conditions with onshore wind. The swell drops right off to 3ft or less. Not worth paddling out.

By Wednesday morning the 2nd of September we get a little pulse of long-period energy – 2ft but with an 18-second period from the SW. That’s very long period, which means good shape and energy (683) but it's a tiny wave. The wind is light and onshore, so it could be glassy but there's just not enough push.

Thursday the 3rd of September morning picks up a bit to 4ft with the same 18-second period, and the energy jumps to 969. The wind is light and onshore. It’s the best of a weak bunch, but still only marginal due to the tide conditions. Friday the 4th of September has similar energy (1315) and a 5ft swell, but again the wind is light and cross-on or onshore. It's just not clean.

From Saturday the 5th of September the trend is downhill. Swell drops, wind stays cross-on, and the surface gets choppy. By the 11th and 12th of September, the period crashes to 8 seconds on the 12th – that's short-period wind swell, and with 5ft and 12 mph cross-onshore winds, it's a choppy, messy mess. On the 13th of September the swell dies to 2ft again with long periods but zero power.

Forget trying to get a wave here for the next two weeks. The only slim, *slim* chance is if you can catch the Thursday the 3rd of September morning session on the higher tide. Even then, it's a gamble. It’s one of those stretches where the forecasts might change for the better, but right now, it’s a sit-and-watch situation.

- Rusty

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