Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's talk about what we've got cooking for the next 16 days.

Alright, so straight up, this is a pretty tricky stretch of surf. We're looking at Ninja's, which is a reef break that's fairly consistent and works best on a southerly swell. The water's sitting at 85°F, which is about 1°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so it's a touch toastier than normal but nothing too wild.

The first week is a bit of a write-off. From Saturday the 1st through to the middle of the following week, we've got waves, but they're mostly small—around 2ft to 4ft—and the swell energy is moderate, with the combined energy sitting between 269 and 980. The main issue is the wind. It's a persistent cross-off from the west, which is clean enough, but the wave quality is just marginal. There's a lot of "risk tstorm" in the forecast, which is never a good sign for a perfect session. The best chance in this first week comes on Monday afternoon the 3rd, with a 4ft SSW swell at 17 seconds. That's a long-period groundswell, so it'll have some punch, and the energy spikes to 794. Still, the forecast is just marginal.

Moving into the second week, things get a bit grim. From Thursday the 6th through to Tuesday the 11th, the wind swings to a cross-shore from the WSW, which is going to chop things up. The swell sticks around 4ft to 5ft, but the period drops to 9-11 seconds, so the waves are going to be a bit fat and messy. The energy is moderate, from 546 to 787, but the conditions are consistently poor. For a few days there, it's basically a write-off for paddle surfing—if you're into kite surfing, that cross-shore wind might be more your thing.

Then, from Wednesday the 12th, the wind swings back to a cross-off from the west, and things start to clean up. The swell is a bit more consistent, around 4ft to 5ft from the SSE, with periods around 10-11 seconds. The energy is moderate, hitting 976 on the 13th. It's still marginal, but the cleaner conditions are a step up.

The real standout, the one that's got my heart beating a little faster, is Sunday the 16th. The morning sees a 2ft swell from the SSW with a 21-second period. That's a very long-period groundswell, and the energy is a moderate 464. The wind is a light offshore from the west, and the forecast is for "expect good surf conditions." For a reef break like Ninja's, that long-period swell is going to wrap in beautifully, offering clean, well-shaped lines. It's a long way out, so take it with a pinch of salt, but if it comes together, it'll be the best session of the whole run.

Rusty.

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