Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s look at what’s coming up for Ninja's. This is a reef setup, exposed to the south, and it's a fairly consistent spot, so we've got a bit of a mixed bag coming our way.

We’re starting off slow, real slow. Sunday morning the 6th is a write-off. The swell is a weak 4ft from the SSE, but the wind is cross-on and the whole thing feels flat with weak energy (305). Don't even bother.

Monday the 7th is where it gets interesting. Early morning we get a 3ft SSE swell but the wind goes glass. That’s the standout of this first week. Glassy conditions on a reef break is a rare treat. The wave energy is weak (340) but for a beginner-friendly reef, clean 3ft waves are perfect. Water temp is sitting at 86°, about a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, so it’s nice and warm.

Things then go a bit average from Tuesday through Wednesday. We get some cross-off winds, but the swell mix is messy and the period is short (9 seconds), so it's not going to have any punch. The energy stays moderate (334-642).

Now, here is the real story. From Thursday the 10th all the way through to the end of the second week, we see a massive pulse of long-period groundswell. This is the big one. Thursday morning the 10th sees 5ft from the SSW with a 16-second period. That’s a long period groundswell, which means proper shaped waves with real power. The combined energy rockets up to 1711 (strong). The wind stays clean cross-off from the WNW. This is a serious setup for experienced surfers.

The swell hangs around for days, peaking Friday the 11th with a 20-second period and a combined energy of 2530 (very strong) on the afternoon. That’s a proper, powerful groundswell. For a reef break like Ninja's, this is going to produce some very well-defined, long lines. Keep in mind, with a period over 15 seconds, it's very long period, so the sets will be big and widely spaced, but the paddle out is easier between them. This is expert territory for sure, the swell is over 8ft on the 18th and 19th. If you’re not confident, stay on the beach.

The second week (from the 16th onwards) continues this theme. The wind stays cross-off, the swell stays in the 3ft to 7ft range, all from the SSW with very long periods (13-21 seconds). The combined energy remains strong (544-2911). The morning of the 18th of September is another standout: 7ft from the SSW with an 18-second period and a combined energy of 2911 (very strong). That is a lot of power, and the wind is a gentle cross-off. For the experts, that is the session to circle on the calendar, but it is a long-range call so keep an eye on it.

The 19th and 20th get a bit messy as the wind swings cross-shore and freshens up, making conditions lumpy, but the swell is still solid. The 21st looks like it cleans up again with a cross-off wind and a dropping 4ft swell.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a bust, but from the 10th onwards, Ninja's turns on for a proper, long-lasting groundswell event. Monday morning the 7th is the best bet for beginners or anyone wanting clean small waves. For the big stuff, the 18th of September morning is the standout, but it is for experts only.

Stay safe, and don't get caught inside on those sets.

Rusty.

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