Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window, and honestly, the first few days are just a tease. The real meat and potatoes don’t kick in until the end of the first week, and then it’s a proper run of groundswell.

Right off the bat, the standout for the whole period is Saturday the 5th of September. It’s the only time we see truly glassy conditions. Ninja’s (a reef break) is the spot, and it’s looking like a dream. The water is a balmy 86°F and about 2°F warmer than average for this time of year, so it’s a touch on the warm side—nothing crazy, but nice. Saturday morning delivers a 5ft SSE swell with a 10-second period, and the wind is NNE at just 3 mph, going glassy. The combined energy is moderate (392). That’s clean, user-friendly surf for a beginner-level reef. Saturday afternoon is even better wind-wise—dead calm, 0 mph from the NNW. The swell drops a touch to 4ft, but the energy is still solid (323). This is the best two-session day of the entire outlook. Expect crowds, though; it’s a spot that’s often busy.

Sunday and Monday (the 6th and 7th) are a write-off. Cross and cross-on winds, marginal conditions. The swell hangs around 3ft to 4ft, but the wind messes it up. Don’t bother.

Things start to look interesting on Tuesday the 8th. The morning is still a bit messy with cross-shore wind, but the afternoon cleans right up. The swell picks up to 4ft from the SE, period 9 seconds, with a clean cross-offshore wind from the W at 9 mph. The combined energy is moderate (481). This is a solid option, but the real turning point is Wednesday the 9th.

Wednesday the 9th of September is where the energy jumps. The morning sees a 2ft swell from the SSW, but the period is a whopping 18 seconds—that’s a long-period groundswell. The combined energy is strong (559). The wind is cross-offshore from the W at 9 mph, keeping it clean. For a reef break like Ninja’s, this long-period swell is going to wrap in beautifully, offering proper shape and power. It’s a small wave, but it’ll have some punch. The afternoon is similar, 2ft at 17 seconds, with the energy climbing to 671. This is a proper little groundswell window.

From Thursday the 10th through to Saturday the 13th, the swell gets bigger and the energy goes through the roof. We’re talking 5ft to 5ft swells from the SSW and SW, with periods between 14 and 17 seconds. The combined energy hits four-digit figures: 1553, 1593, 1643, and even 2082 on the 12th. That’s strong to very strong wave energy. The wind remains cross-offshore from the W or WNW, keeping things clean. However, the forecasts are a bit touch-and-go, with “marginal” conditions noted. At 5ft to 5ft, these waves are still fine for intermediate surfers, but the energy is intense. The long period means long waits between sets, but the paddle-out will be easier. This is a stretch for those who like a bit more power.

The second week, from the 14th to the 20th, is a slow bleed. The swell drops, the energy fades, and the wind starts to get a bit stronger and more cross-shore. Thursday the 17th is a bit of a mess with cross-shore chop. There’s a little spike on Friday the 18th with a 4ft to 5ft SSW swell, period 16-17 seconds, and the energy back up to 1005-1090, but the wind is light cross-shore, so it’s not perfect. Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th are just average with moderate cross-shore winds. The swell direction shifts to S on the 20th with a shorter 11-second period, which isn’t ideal for this spot.

So, to wrap it up: Saturday the 5th of September is your absolute best day—glassy, warm, clean, fun. After that, Wednesday the 9th kicks off a solid run of groundswell that lasts through the 13th, but the conditions are a bit more marginal. The second week is a fade-out, with only a brief spike on the 18th that’s worth a look if you’re desperate.

Rusty, signing off.

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