Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what’s cooking.

The first solid action we get is on Wednesday the 2nd of September at Ninja's. This is a reef setup and it’s our standout window in the whole 16-day run. The water’s sitting at 85°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there. Wednesday morning and afternoon both serve up 6 ft to 6 ft of SSW groundswell with a period of 14 seconds – that’s proper long-period energy, packing a punch. The combined swell energy reads (1166) Wednesday morning and (1290) in the afternoon, so we’re in the strong zone. A light W breeze keeps things cross-off and clean. With the long period, this reef break will handle that energy beautifully. It’s a beginner-friendly wave, but at this size, it’s going to be a lot more fun for the crew who’ve got a few sessions under their belt. It’s fairly consistent, but crowds are likely here.

Tuesday the 1st is a slow start. We get 4 ft SSW swell at 16 seconds in the morning, which sounds tasty, but the combined energy (1219) is actually strong and the wave comment says it’s marginal due to tide. The wind is a moderate cross-off at 12 mph from the WNW. It’s not a write-off, but Wednesday is where it’s at.

After Wednesday, the swell drops off. Thursday and Friday are marginal with 4 ft to 5 ft SSE swell and short period around 10 to 11 seconds, combined energy dropping into the low hundreds (629 down to 485). A light cross wind keeps things clean, but these are not the days to cancel work for.

Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th offer glassy conditions – Saturday morning is glass with 4 ft SSE swell, Sunday morning has zero wind and 4 ft SSE swell. Combined energy is low (381 and 295). It’s clean, small, and could be fun on a log if you’re desperate, but it’s nothing to write home about.

From Monday the 7th through the 8th, the swell stays small (around 4 ft) and the wind picks up. By Wednesday the 9th, it’s dropping to 3 ft with a fresh breeze. Poor conditions until a pulse of SSW swell hits again on Thursday the 10th, but it’s got strong cross-off wind (15-19 mph) and the wave quality is marginal. Not the one.

Then we see a bigger, longer-period SSW swell building into Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th. Friday morning brings 4 ft at 15 seconds with combined energy (1247), and Friday afternoon jumps to 5 ft at 18 seconds – that’s a very long-period groundswell, energy hitting (1694). The issue is the wind: strong cross-off from the west at 15-19 mph, with a risk of thunderstorms. The wave comment says marginal. This is a long-range forecast, so a bit promising but uncertain. A reef like Ninja's will handle that long period better than a beach break, but the wind has to cooperate.

Sunday the 13th onwards sees the swell fade again, with cross winds and moderate chop through to the end of the 16-day window. Not great.

So, the standout is clearly Wednesday the 2nd of September at Ninja's. If you can get out that morning, that’s the call. Friday the 11th has potential if the wind lays down, but keep an eye on it.

Stay safe, keep the wax warm.

Rusty.

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