Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, looking at what we’ve got shaping up for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow burner, but there’s a real gem waiting for us if we’re patient.

Right now, things are pretty ordinary. The first few days through to the weekend are a write-off, honestly. We’ve got cross-shore winds messing things up, and the swell is lumpy and grovelly. The water is sitting at 85°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. The wave energy is moderate, around 640 (moderate wave energy), but it’s just not clean.

Sunday the 6th through to Wednesday the 9th is a real struggle. We’re looking at a mix of cross-shore and cross-offshore winds, but the swell is short period and the surf is just marginal. The best you can say is that the afternoon of Friday the 7th might offer a slightly cleaner window, with a little 4ft SSE swell and a cross-offshore breeze, but it’s still not a standout.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. Monday the 10th has a tiny 2ft swell but with a very long 21-second period – that’s a proper groundswell, but it’s tiny. The afternoon of Monday the 10th gets a little cleaner with a cross-offshore breeze. Through to the middle of the week, it’s all marginal, with the swell staying around 5ft from the SSE. The energy drops off a bit, too.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real action starts to build around the 18th of August. Tuesday the 18th sees a solid jump in energy. The morning has a 6ft SSW swell with a long 18-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 2299 (strong wave energy). The wind is light cross-onshore, but it’s manageable. The afternoon gets even better: 7ft SSW swell, same long period, and the energy cranks up to 2817 (strong wave energy). The wind switches to a light cross-shore. This is serious swell, but it’s big – over 8ft for the experts only. The long period means it’ll be better at a reef like Ninja’s, which is a reef break, so the shape should be good, but the sets will be widely spaced.

The standout, though, is Thursday the 20th of August. The morning at Ninja’s is looking like the best of the whole run. The swell is a clean 4ft from the S with a 17-second period, giving a combined energy of 1134 (strong wave energy). The wind is light and cross-offshore, which means clean, glassy conditions. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s a beginner-friendly size, but the quality will be there for everyone. The crowds can be an issue here, so get in early.

The swell hangs in there through Friday the 21st, with a 5ft S swell and 18-second period, but the wind gets a bit more cross-shore, so it won’t be as pristine.

So, overall, if you can wait, the 20th of August is the clear winner. The rest of the window is mostly marginal, with a few cleaner windows in the afternoons, but nothing that screams “drop everything.” If you’re a beginner, stick to the smaller days. If you’re an expert, that 7ft day on the 18th will get your heart pumping, but the 20th is the sweet spot.

Rusty.

Read more