Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the coming weeks.

The swell is pretty quiet to start, but we’ve got a nice run of clean conditions building into the end of the first week and some solid, bigger energy pushing in for the second week. The real standout is going to be a Friday afternoon session at the end of the month.

The only break we’re looking at is Ninja's. It’s a reef set-up, so it holds the swell well, and it’s fairly consistent, which is a good sign. The water temp is about normal for this time of year, nothing wild there.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th are looking pretty poor—small, cross-shore winds, not much energy to speak of with combined energy readings of 171 and 241 (weak), so it’s a bit of a paddle for nothing. Tuesday the 21st is marginal, still small, but we start to see the period stretch out a bit.

Now, Wednesday the 22nd morning is where things start to get interesting. The wind goes light and cross-off, and we get a clean 3ft swell from the SSE. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s not going to be a world-beater, but it’s clean and surfable. That afternoon and into Thursday the 23rd, the wind swings offshore from the NW with light breezes, keeping the 4ft SSE swell clean. The energy is starting to build (288 and 296 – moderate). Friday the 24th is the first real highlight of the week. Morning has 4ft from the SSE with a 9-second period, the wind is cross-off, and the combined energy is 410 (moderate). The afternoon gets even better with the wind going offshore from the NW, keeping that 4ft clean and glassy. The energy is strong (380). This is a solid session for the experienced crew.

Saturday the 25th turns a bit more marginal, with stronger cross-off winds and a mix of swell directions. The energy is still moderate (447), but the conditions aren’t as tidy.

The real standout is Sunday the 26th. The swell holds at 4ft from the SE, with a 10-second period, and the wind goes light and cross-off, making for some truly clean conditions. The combined energy jumps to 571 and 623 (strong). This is excellent. The waves will have proper shape, and the reef will handle the energy well. The crowd factor is ‘often’ here, so expect a few others out, but for good reason.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th see the wind turning more onshore and cross-shore, chopping things up. The swell drops a bit, and the quality fades.

Then we get a big shift. From Wednesday the 29th of July through to Friday the 1st of August, the swell period gets very long—17 to 22 seconds—and the combined energy hits some massive numbers (744 up to 2660). This is strong to very strong wave energy. The swell size is mostly 3ft to 4ft, so it’s not huge, but that long-period groundswell has a lot of push. The wind stays cross-off and clean for most of it. The caveat here is that long period swells at a reef break like this are a dream, but the sets will be more spaced out. The best of this run looks like Friday the 31st of July afternoon. The swell is 4ft from the SSW, period 16 seconds, wind is light cross-off, and the combined energy is a massive 1259. This is excellent, experienced surf conditions. The waves will have serious power.

Saturday the 1st of August sees the swell build to 6ft, but with cross-shore winds and a risk of thunderstorms, it will be a bit messy and only for the experts. The energy is huge (2660), but the wind is the spoiler.

After that, into the first week of August, the swell drops back to 4-4ft with the period still around 16 seconds, but the wind goes moderate cross-shore, creating a chop. The energy is still high (956-1235), but the quality is marginal.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is the Sunday the 26th for clean, fun waves, and the absolute standout is the Friday the 31st of July afternoon for that powerful, clean, long-period groundswell. Get on it.

Rusty.

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