Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s size this up.

The next 16 days at Ninja’s are a ride with a lot of weather and wind to push through. There’s a solid run of swell, but only one window that really feels like the stars line up. This is a reef setup, so it handles the long-period groundswell well, but we need the wind to cooperate.

Kicking off Tuesday the 8th, it’s small with 1.2m from the SSE and a light cross-on. The wave energy is moderate (493). Water temp is 86°F, a touch warmer than average.

Wednesday morning the 9th is the whole reason to look at this forecast. We’ve got 1.2m from the SE, a light cross-offshore wind at 10 km/h, and clean conditions. The combined energy is solid (610). That’s the one session in the whole fortnight that has good wind, decent swell, and a break that takes that south swell well. It’s the standout.

Thursday the 10th through Sunday the 13th is where the swell gets serious, but the wind keeps company. The swell climbs from 1.4m to 1.6m from the SSW, with very strong combined energy (1527 to 2692). The period is long, between 15 and 19 seconds, meaning these are proper groundswells that will wrap into the reef nicely. But the wind is a steady cross-off W at 20 to 25 km/h, and there’s a risk of tstorms most afternoons. The sets will be spaced out, making the paddle easier. It’s surfable and fun, but not perfect.

Monday the 14th throws a curveball: 2.4m from the SW, but it’s a short-period 8-second windswell with the wind ripping at 30 km/h. That’s heavy and messy, and only for advanced guys on a reef.

From Tuesday the 15th onward, it’s a slide. Swell stays 0.7m to 1.3m from the SSW, but the wind builds and turns more onshore. Wednesday the 16th sees fresh cross-off winds that are too strong for fun surfing. By Thursday the 17th into the final week, cross-shore winds and lumpy, choppy conditions take over, with wave energy dropping to weak (299). The last week is basically a kite surfer’s playground with that cross-shore wind, not a good paddle-surf setup.

The one to circle: Wednesday morning, September 9th. Clean, light wind, 1.2m of SE swell. That’s your window if you want the best the forecast has to offer. After that, it’s a fight with the wind for a week, then a flat, blown-out week.

Rusty.

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