Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and let's talk about the next couple of weeks at Ninja's (Big Island) . It's a reef break, which is a big deal, because with the periods we're looking at, the points and reefs are where it's at. The water's sitting at 85° right now, which is about average for this time of year, so just your usual boardshorts and a light rash guard.

Honestly, the first stretch is a bit of a letdown. We've got a solid run of small, short-period swell rolling in from the SSE for the next few days, and while the winds are mostly light—and we even get a glassy window on Sunday afternoon—the waves are just too weak to get excited about. You're looking at waves around 4ft, but the energy is pretty weak, and with periods around 10 seconds, it's just not going to have any punch. There's one day, Friday the 4th, where the period ticks up to 11 seconds, but it's still small and a bit cross. It's the kind of surf where you might get a few fun ones if you're desperate, but it's not worth paddling out for.

The real story starts to shift around the 9th and 10th. We're waiting on a proper groundswell from the SSW. You can see the energy values start climbing, then jump right up on the 10th. That's a huge jump in energy, a sign of some serious juice on the way. The swell builds to a more respectable 5ft, and the period stretches out to 16 seconds—that's proper groundswell. You'll feel the ocean breathing between sets, but for a reef like this, that long period is going to translate into some beautiful, walled-up waves.

The catch on the 10th and 11th is the wind. It's blowing a solid 12-15 mph from the west. It's technically cross-offshore, which will keep the faces clean, but it's going to be a bit lumpy and bumpy on the surface. Still, this is the most powerful surf we've seen, and if you're an experienced surfer, this is your window. The 10th is the standout, with that massive energy spike and 5ft of SSW swell.

However, after that initial push, it gets messy. The storms roll in from the 12th onwards, bringing a mix of rain and t-storms, and while the swell stays rideable, it drops back down to 3-4ft. The period stays long, but the consistency is questionable and the wind is up. By the 18th, the energy has bled out and it's just a wash.

The one other call-out is later on the 16th. We get another big energy spike with a 4ft swell and an 18-second period. That's a very long period, and on a reef, it could be a thing of beauty. It's a couple of weeks out, so treat it as promising but not guaranteed, but it has the potential to be the cleanest of the long-period events before it peters out.

For a beginner, honestly, the early small stuff is more your size, but the quality is poor. Once it gets over 5ft and the energy jumps, this is a spot for experienced surfers only. Given the wind and the swell direction late in the window, it might even be more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-surfing one.

So, if you want my honest take: the 10th and 11th are the best on offer for power, and the 16th is the dark horse for quality. Everything else is just... there.

Rusty

Read more