Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here with the lowdown on the 16-day stretch ahead.

We’ve got a slow couple of weeks on the cards, so don’t be in a rush. The good stuff shows up, but it takes a while to get here.

Tuesday, Sept 15th through Thursday, Sept 17th is basically a skip. You've got a fresh cross-off breeze and tiny waves – between 2 ft and 4 ft. The combined swell energy is reading moderate to strong (476 to 986), but the whole forecast is screaming "marginal." Not worth the paddle.

Things start to perk up on Friday, Sept 18th. The morning is clean with a light breeze and a 2 ft SW groundswell with a very long period (18 seconds, 660 energy). The afternoon sees a cleaner 5 ft SSW swell (17-second period) with a jump in energy to 1130 (strong). Cross-off winds from the W with a gentle breeze will keep the surface clean. This is our first real sniff of a surf, but it's still building.

Saturday, Sept 19th is the one to circle on the calendar. Clear skies all day, clean cross-off winds. The morning swell hits 7 ft from the SSW at 16 seconds, with a combined energy reading of 1909 (strong wave energy). The afternoon settles to 6 ft, still a solid groundswell with 1437 energy. This is a proper reef setup, and that S direction is exactly what Ninja’s likes to see. The wind is clean, but the crowd forecast says "often," so you won't be alone. It's over 5 ft, so this is strictly for experienced surfers – beginners, sit this one out.

Then we hit a wall. Sunday, Sept 20th, to Monday, Sept 21st is total trash – cross-shore, lumpy, poor conditions. From Tuesday, Sept 22nd, to Thursday, Sept 24th, the swell drops to tiny 3 ft to 3 ft from the SSE with short periods (8 to 9 seconds). The wind stays cross-off, but the energy is weak to weak-moderate (189 to 241). Boring.

Another rough day on Friday, Sept 25th with cross-shore chop. Then Saturday, Sept 26th starts to build again with a moderate S swell (4 ft to 4 ft) and long periods (19 to 20 seconds) with strong energy (1410 to 1672). The conditions are still a little choppy, but there’s potential for the Sunday.

And that Sunday is Sunday, Sept 27th. The morning is clean with a 5 ft SSW groundswell at 16 seconds, cross-off wind, and a combined energy of 1095 (strong). The reports say “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The water temp is 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

The rest of the week into September 30th fades again with smaller, more ordinary waves.

So here’s the call: Saturday, Sept 19th is your big wave day – get it if you’ve got the skills and don’t mind a crowd. For the cleanest conditions with solid, well-defined groundswell, Sunday, Sept 27th morning is the winner.

Rusty.

Read more