Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been poring over the charts for the next couple of weeks. Let’s break it down.

The first real standout is this weekend. Starting Friday morning, July 24, Ninja’s (a reef break) has a clean 4ft SSE swell, period 9 seconds, with a gentle cross-off breeze from the WNW. The water temp is 86°, which is about normal for the time of year. The combined energy is moderate (389). It’s a clean little wave, but the real gold is Saturday afternoon, July 25. The swell lifts to 4ft from the SSE, period 10 seconds, and the wind stays light cross-off from the W. Energy goes to 534 (moderate), and the forecast is very good. Sunday, July 26, keeps that run going – morning and afternoon both offering 5ft SE swell, period 10-11 seconds, with light cross-off winds and energy climbing to 700 and then 818 (moderate). The water is still warm, and the consistency is fairly consistent. This weekend is the pick of the first week: clean, fun-sized waves for all levels, and crowds are possible.

After Sunday, it gets messy. Monday, July 27, through Wednesday, July 29, sees a lull – swell drops, winds turn cross-shore, and the forecasts are marginal. Energy stays moderate, but the wind picks up, turning things lumpy. Thursday, July 30, and Friday, July 31, get worse – fresh cross-shore winds, poor surf conditions, and a big energy spike to 1413 on Friday afternoon (strong). That’s more of a choppy, blown-out mess for paddle boards. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during that period.

Then we get a little glimmer. Sunday morning, August 2, brings a clean 3ft SSW swell with a very long period of 20 seconds, and a light offshore from the NNW. Energy is 729 (moderate). That’s a classic groundswell – long period, so it’ll be best at this reef, offering well-shaped, powerful waves with long gaps between sets. The light offshore wind should make for some glassy conditions. This is a promising standout, but it’s a week away, so keep an eye on it.

The second week gets bigger but not as clean. August 5 and 6 see swell climbing to 6ft–7ft from the SSE, period 12 seconds, with moderate cross-off winds. Energy is strong (over 1500 on August 5). That’s getting into the bigger range – over 5ft, so it’s too big for beginners, and at 7ft, it’s only for experienced surfers. The winds are cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the trade-off is the size and the moderate cross-shore chop on the mornings. August 7 drops back to 6ft, then 3ft with a very long 19-second period on Friday afternoon. That’s a sweet little groundswell, but the wind is cross-off, so it’ll be clean. August 8 sees a return to poor conditions with moderate cross-shore winds.

Overall, the best bet is this weekend – Saturday afternoon and Sunday. The long-range Sunday morning, August 2, is another standout to watch, but it’s less certain. Keep your expectations in check for the second week.

Rusty.

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