Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, here’s the deal. We got a bit of a mixed bag coming up over the next couple weeks. The water's running a touch warmer than usual for mid-September, so that's a small win.

Starting off, Monday the 14th is pretty meh. Ninja's is seeing knee-to-waist high SSW swell, but it's got that fresh cross-offshore wind and a storm risk hanging over it. Not a whole lot of push. Tuesday’s about the same, maybe a bit weaker. You’re going to be scratching around for anything.

Wednesday and Thursday, we're still in that small stuff – knee to waist high, clean enough with the cross-off wind, but the energy’s weak. Short-period SSW swell isn't doing us any favors. Friday morning goes a bit lumpy with a cross-shore wind, but the afternoon picks up a little, getting to around waist-shoulder high with a longer 17-second period. That’s a bit more interesting for a late session.

Then we get the first real standout. Saturday the 19th morning. The swell jumps to a solid 2.0m from the SSW with a 16-second period, and the energy reading is 1997 – that’s proper punch. It’s going to be too much for the beginners, but for anyone who knows what they’re doing, Ninja's is going to have some fun. The cross-offshore wind keeps the surface clean. The afternoon backs off a touch to 1.7m, but that morning window is the one.

After that, it fades out. Sunday the 20th drops back down to waist-high, and the whole week from the 21st to the 24th looks pretty average. We’re talking small, weak swells from the SSE with short, crumbly periods – 9 to 11 seconds. The energy readings are low, and the wind goes cross-shore a lot. You’d be fighting an uphill battle.

The 25th shows a pulse from the SSE, but it’s still short-period and only around waist-high. Not great. Then things start to look up again towards the end.

Saturday the 26th afternoon, we get a bump from the south with a longer 21-second period, and the energy jumps up to 1339. That’s more like it. Then Sunday the 27th is the second clear standout. We’re looking at solid 1.3m SSW groundswell with an 18-second period, and the energy is over 1200. The winds are light offshore, so it should be glassy. That Sunday looks like the pick of the second week – a proper point-break style swell.

Monday the 28th is still fun – around 1.0m plus with offshore winds and the models saying very good conditions. That Monday morning is also worth a look. After that, it fades right back down to knee-high by the 29th.

So, there you have it. Two real highlights: Saturday the 19th morning for size and power, and Sunday the 27th for clean, long-period conditions. The rest is pretty average. Keep your expectations in check, but don’t sleep on those two windows.

Rusty.

Read more