Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Ninja’s has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so strap in.

First off, for a reef break that’s fairly consistent, the water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, nothing wild to report there. The real story is the swell energy. We’ve got some proper punch coming through at times, with combined wave energy readings like 1147 and 1103 – that’s strong energy (1147) and (1103) – but the problem is the wind and weather.

Right out of the gate on Sunday the 13th, we’ve got a risk of thunderstorms and a fresh 22 mph cross-off wind. Swell is 5 ft from the SSW with a very long 15-second period, but it’s just too messy to get excited about. That long-period groundswell at a reef setup is usually a good thing, but the wind is just killing it.

Monday the 14th is more of the same: thunderstorm risks and cross-off winds. The swell tries to build a bit, hitting 5 ft again in the afternoon with a long 17-second period, but the conditions are still marginal. The energy is there (1103), but it’s not clean enough.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday the 15th afternoon – that’s your standout window. The wind shifts to a clean offshore from the NNW at 12 mph. Swell is 4 ft from the SSW, period 14 seconds, and the energy is solid at 1018. This is the best of the first week, hands down. Experienced surfers are going to have a good time here at Ninja’s. The reef will love that long-period swell, and with offshore wind, it’ll be clean and lined up. Just keep in mind it can get crowded here, so you might have some company.

After that, things get a bit messy again. The rest of the week and into the weekend (16th to 22nd) is mostly cross-off winds and thunderstorm risks. Swell drops off to the 2 ft to 4 ft range. The energy dips, going as low as 213 on the 22nd – that’s weak energy. It’s just not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate.

The second week continues the quiet trend. From the 23rd of September onward, the swell stays small, mostly 2 ft to 3 ft. The wind is all cross or cross-off, and the period gets short and inconsistent. There’s a little blip on the 24th morning with a 2 ft SSW swell and an 18-second period, giving moderate energy (498), but the cross-off wind kills any real quality. By the 25th, the period jumps to 20 seconds but the swell is only 2 ft, so it’s just not doing anything.

The outlook improves slightly on Sunday the 28th morning. We get a 3 ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period, combined energy of 557 (moderate), and a gentle 9 mph cross-off wind. It’s looking clean and promising, a nice way to close out the forecast period.

But to be honest, across this whole 16-day window, only that Tuesday the 15th afternoon stands out as a true must-paddle session. The rest is a lot of waiting for the right wind to line up with the swell.

Stay salty,
Rusty.

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