Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get real about what’s happening at Ninja's over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, the first week and a half is a write-off. There’s a long stretch of marginal conditions with cross-off and cross-shore winds making a mess of things. The only real bright spot is right at the tail end of the forecast, so don’t get too excited about this week.

Monday 14th starts off with a SSW swell around 3ft in the morning, bumping to about 5ft in the afternoon. That 17-second period gives it some deep ocean energy, but the wind is howling at 22 mph from the west, creating a messy cross-off. The combined energy is moderate to strong (872-1103). Add in the risk of thunderstorms and it’s just not worth it.

Tuesday 15th and Wednesday 16th keep that same story going – SSW swells around 3ft to 4ft with 14 to 16-second periods, but still with strong cross-off winds. Conditions are poor to marginal. Leave the board at home.

Thursday 17th drops right off with tiny 2ft SW to SSW swell and moderate cross-off breeze. Wave energy is weak (363-440). Not a paddling day.

Friday 18th sees a small bump in the afternoon to about 4ft on a 17-second SSW swell, giving a decent energy reading (1122). But the wind is cross-shore, kicking up a chop. Still marginal.

Saturday 19th is the first semi-interesting day. The morning brings a solid 7ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period, and a cross-off breeze out of the WSW at 16 mph. The combined energy jumps to 1935 – that’s strong. The morning looks clean, but it’s big enough for experienced surfers only. Not a beginner day. By the afternoon it drops to about 6ft.

From Sunday 20th through Saturday 26th it’s a flat, inconsistent stretch. Swell heights bounce from 2ft to 4ft, periods are all over the place, and the wind is either cross-shore or cross-off. Scores are zero or marginal. The water temperature is about average for the time of year.

Now, Sunday 27th – this is the real standout. The morning has a clean 4ft S groundswell with a 19-second period – that’s a very long period, so the waves will have real shape and power. Wind is light from the west at 9 mph, cross-off, and conditions are clean. The combined energy is strong at 1144. This is the best session of the whole outlook. The swell direction isn’t dead-on optimum for Ninja's, but with that period and clean conditions, it’s the pick. Expect crowds.

Monday 28th keeps the run going. The morning sees a 4ft SSW groundswell, 16-second period, with a light offshore wind from the NW at 9 mph. Clean conditions and very good surf potential (925 energy). Afternoon drops to about 3ft but stays clean.

Tuesday 29th tails off with a small 3ft SSW swell and 14-second period, but still light cross-off breeze. Clean but small.

So here’s the bottom line: forget the first 12 days. The real window is Sunday 27th and Monday 28th September – those mornings are your best bet. Clean, long-period groundswell, real energy. Get on it.

Rusty.

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