Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s shaping up for the next couple of weeks.

We’re kicking off at Ninja's (reef). This spot is a reef break, fairly consistent, and it’s exposed to the swell. The water is sitting at 85°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real action hits on Wednesday the 2nd of September. We’ve got a solid SSW groundswell pushing in at 6ft to 6ft with a nice long 14-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is sitting at 1166 to 1290 – that’s moderate to strong, so you’ll feel the push. Winds are cross-off from the west at 9 mph, which will keep the surface clean. This is excellent surf, but at that size, it’s really for experienced surfers only. The swell direction is SSE, which isn’t the absolute optimum S direction, but it’s close enough to make it work. The break is a reef, so those long-period lines will wrap in nicely, and it won’t just close out. Crowds are often here, so expect company.

Thursday morning the 3rd is a bit of a letdown – the swell drops to 5ft and the period shortens to 10 seconds, with a cross wind making it only marginal. But by Thursday afternoon, the wind swings to cross-off and the surf cleans up, giving you a decent session in the 4ft range.

Now, Friday the 4th through to Sunday the 6th is all about the glassy, clean conditions. Friday afternoon, Saturday, and Sunday mornings are seeing glassy or near-glassy conditions with winds as light as 0 to 3 mph. The swell hangs around 4ft to 5ft, with a period of 10 seconds. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and fun. The combined energy is in the 300 to 500 range, so it’s light to moderate. This is a great window for a beginner on a longboard, or anyone wanting a relaxed session without the crowds.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th are still rideable with clean cross-off winds, but the swell drops to 3ft to 4ft, and the energy is weak to moderate. By Wednesday the 9th, the swell takes a dive to 2ft, and even though the period jumps to 16 seconds, the energy is low and the wind is picking up to 16 mph. It’s not great.

The real standout, and I mean the real standout, is the second week. Look at the 10th of September through to the 12th. We’ve got a massive SSW groundswell coming in with a very long 16-17 second period. Swell heights are 4ft to 6ft, and the combined energy is through the roof – 1241 up to 2128. That’s strong to very strong energy. The winds are cross-off, so it’ll be clean. This is where the reef at Ninja’s will absolutely shine. The swell direction is SSW, which is close to the optimum S direction, and with that period, the waves will be powerful, well-shaped, and long. The downside is a risk of thunderstorms on some afternoons, and the wind is a moderate breeze, but it’s still cross-off, so it’s manageable. This is a session for experienced surfers only – at 6ft with that energy, it’s not for the faint-hearted.

After that, the swell drops off a bit, but still offers some rideable waves in the 3ft to 4ft range through to the 16th, with that long period keeping the quality up. The 17th of September then looks like another pulse of energy, with a 5ft to 5ft SSW swell at a 19-20 second period, and energy over 2000. That’s a long-range call, so promising but less certain.

Overall, the best on offer is the second week, from the 10th to the 12th, and the potential pulse on the 17th. If you want the cleanest, glassiest conditions, the first weekend (5th and 6th) is the pick for the smaller, more relaxed stuff.

Rusty.

Read more