Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Alright, let’s look at what’s coming up for Ninja’s. This is a reef break, exposed to the south, and the sweet spot for swell direction is from the south. It’s pretty consistent, so there’s always a chance.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a bit of a slow start. For the first several days, from Thursday the 20th of August through to the end of the following week, the surf is small and pretty marginal. Swell heights hang around the 2ft to 4ft mark, coming from the south or south-southwest. The combined swell energy is moderate, with values like 911 on Thursday morning dropping down to around 200-300 by Sunday, so nothing to get too excited about. The wind is mainly cross or cross-off from the west and southwest, keeping it reasonably clean, but the wave quality is just not there. Thursday arvo has a bit of cross-chop, and the forecast calls for “marginal surf” most sessions. There’s a patch of cleaner conditions on Friday and Saturday, but the swell is too small to really make it fire. Honestly, it’s a quiet run – a few days where you might get a fun little wave, but nothing worth racing for.

Now, hold onto your board, because things flip around the 27th of August. Thursday morning is the first real standout. We get a solid 5ft swell from the south-southwest, with a very long period of 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy, pushing through with a combined swell energy of 1167 (moderate-strong). The wind is clean and cross-off from the west at 15 km/h (about 9 mph). This is glassy, lined-up stuff, perfect for an experienced surfer. The water’s sitting at a warm 84°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, so just your usual boardshorts session. This is expert territory though – anything over 5ft on a reef can be punchy, and with that long period, the sets will be powerful and take their time between waves. Paddling out should be manageable with the gaps, but the wave shape will be better than the beach.

Then we have a period of solid swell building through to the end of the month. The 30th of August is a proper beast: 7ft to 8ft swell from the south-southwest, with a period of 19-20 seconds. The combined swell energy hits a whopping 3733 – that’s strong to very strong energy. This is big, powerful, and definitely for experts only. The wind stays cross-off and clean from the west and west-northwest, so the wave faces should be smooth. If you’re a skilled surfer, this could be the session of the window, but it’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on the updates. The sets will be long and heavy, and with that direction matching the optimum south swell, the reef should handle it well.

The 31st of August and 1st of September keep the energy high, with 6ft to 7ft swells, still from the south-southwest, and clean winds. The combined energy stays in the 1400-2800 range, so still plenty of grunt. After that, through the first week of September, the swell backs off a touch but stays rideable, around 3ft to 4ft, with clean conditions. The best windows are the 27th morning for a solid, powerful wave, and then the 30th for a proper big-swell session. Crowds are likely at Ninja’s though – it’s often packed, so plan accordingly.

For the overall best on offer, I’d point you to the morning of the 27th of August for a clean, powerful groundswell at a manageable size for experienced surfers. If you’re after the real juice, the 30th of August is the big boy session, but it’s a wild one.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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