Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s happening with the surf over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow start, so bear with me.

Right now, we’re looking at a long stretch of poor conditions before anything worth getting excited about. The first few days are a write-off. Friday, July 3rd, through to the following Thursday, July 9th, is all poor surf with strong, bumpy cross-shore winds. Don’t even bother paddling out. The swell is tiny, mostly around 2ft to 3ft from the SW and SSE, with a period around 10 to 14 seconds. The combined energy is weak to moderate (331 to 389). It’s just not happening.

Things start to look a little bit more promising from Friday, July 10th, but it’s still marginal. We get a consistent cross-off wind from the W, and the swell bumps up slightly to 3ft from the SSW with a 14-second period. The energy ticks up a notch (425), but it’s still nothing to write home about. This marginal pattern hangs around through the weekend and into Monday, July 13th, with similar sized swell around 3ft to 4ft from the S and SSW.

Now, here’s the standout of the whole run. It’s a bit of a rare one, and it’s a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt, but I’m watching it closely. On the morning of Sunday, July 12th, we’ve got a small window of clean conditions at Ninja's. The wind is a gentle breeze from the W (15 km/h) creating a cross-off, and the swell is 3ft from the S with a 13-second period. The combined energy is a solid moderate 406. This spot is a reef break, and with that S swell direction matching the optimum, it should be working. The water temp is 84°, which is about average for this time of year. Keep in mind this spot can get crowded often.

Later on, Tuesday, July 14th morning is also looking clean with a gentle WNW wind (15 km/h) and a 2ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period. That’s a groundswell, and for a reef break like Ninja's, that could be tidy. The energy is strong (430).

Fast forward to July 16th, Thursday afternoon, we see a bigger pulse of swell coming in. The swell jumps to 4ft from the SSW with an incredibly long 19-second period. The combined energy rockets to 1214 – that’s strong energy. The problem is the wind is light and cross-onshore, making it a bit choppy. Still, for the bold surfer on a good tide, that long period groundswell could produce some serious lines at this reef.

The very end of the forecast window, from July 17th, Friday afternoon, through July 18th, Saturday, gets bigger again with swell around 4ft to 6ft from the SSW, but the wind swings cross-onshore and the surf gets choppy and messy. At that size, it’s getting into expert territory, but the quality is poor. If it was clean, it’d be epic, but as it stands, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Overall, don’t hold your breath for the first week. The best bet is the clean, light-wind window on July 12th and again on July 14th at Ninja's. After that, there’s some serious energy showing up, but you’ll have to fight the wind for it.

Stay stoked.

- Rusty

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