Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Ninja's over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The Tuesday afternoon kicks off with some small, messy 3.6ft SE swell and a cross-shore wind blowing 12 mph. The water’s sitting at a warm 85.3°, which is about normal for this time of year. But honestly, it’s not worth paddling out for. The combined energy is moderate at 439 and the conditions are just poor.

We’ve got a dry spell for a few days there. Wednesday and Thursday look marginal at best, with tiny swell around 2.0ft to 3.0ft. The wind is mostly cross-off, which is nice, but the waves are just too small and weak to get excited about. The combined energy through this period stays moderate, between 500 and 570. The surf is there, but it’s a struggle.

Friday is more of the same – small, clean waves but nothing to write home about. The energy is picking up a bit (670-792), but the height is still only 2.3ft to 3.0ft. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s not the good stuff.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Saturday the 1st of August. The morning looks like a real standout. We’ve got a clean 3.0ft SW groundswell rolling in, with a period of 15 seconds. That’s a proper long-period swell, which means better shaped waves and more energy in the water. The combined energy is a solid 623. The wind is a gentle breeze from the NE, making it cross-off and clean. The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." This is the pick of the first week. Ninja's is a reef break, so it loves that long-period SW swell. Just be aware that crowds are often here, so you’ll have company.

Sunday the 2nd drops right off again. The wind goes light offshore from the NNW at only 3 mph, which is glassy, but the swell is tiny (2.6ft) and weak (energy 188-192). The conditions are "ordinary." Not worth the paddle.

Monday the 3rd of August has a morning of nothing, but the afternoon shapes up nicely. We’re looking at a 3.6ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, combined energy of 750, and a clean cross-off wind from the WNW. The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." That’s another solid session if you can get out there.

Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th hold some decent size (3.9ft) with long periods (15-19 seconds), and the energy is high (693-913). The wind stays cross-off, so the waves will be clean. The break is exposed to the south, so that SSW swell is hitting it well. This is a good little run of fun, lined-up waves.

But the real standout for the whole forecast? Friday the 7th of August afternoon. The swell height is only 3.3ft, but the period is 19 seconds and the combined energy is a massive 1199 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is cross-off from the W at 19 mph, keeping it clean. That’s a powerful, long-period groundswell that will wrap in beautifully. That afternoon is the one to circle on your calendar.

After that, Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th get a bit messy. The swell is still around 3.3ft to 4.6ft, but the wind swings cross-shore from the WSW at 16 mph, putting a chop on the face. The energy is still high (1032-1327), but the quality drops. The conditions are "poor" on Sunday. It might be more fun for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer in that chop.

The second week from Monday the 10th onward is a bit more of a mixed bag. The swell hangs around 2.3ft to 5.2ft, mostly from the SSE with a short period (10 seconds). The wind is cross-off, keeping it clean, but the energy is moderate (435-760). The 12th of August morning shows a 5.2ft SSE swell, but again, short period. It’s surfable, but not the quality of the first week. The real magic is in those first few days of August.

Catch you in the lineup.

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