Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming down the line. We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but there’s some real gold waiting for those who are patient.

Overall, the pattern starts off with solid, clean groundswell that’s a bit too big and raw for beginners, then mellows out into a long, quiet spell before a killer pulse shows up at the end of the month and into September.

The real action kicks off on Tuesday morning, the 18th of August, at Ninja's. We’re looking at a solid 6ft of SSW groundswell with a very long 18-second period. The wave energy is strong (2355), and with a light W cross-offshore wind, the conditions will be pristine. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is right about average for this time of year. This is swell built for the reef, with those long lines and clean faces—it’s a standout session, but at this size, it’s strictly for experienced surfers. Be aware, crowds are often an issue at Ninja's, so get in early.

Through Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday the 19th, the swell drops slightly to 5ft-7ft, but the wind swings a bit cross-shore, making things a little less perfect. It’s still surfable, but the magic of the morning is gone. By Thursday the 20th of August, the swell fades noticeably to around 3ft, and the energy drops away to moderate levels (911). This marks the start of a long lull.

From Thursday the 20th all the way through to Friday the 28th of August, the surf is mostly small and weak. We’re looking at waist-high stuff at best, with the energy bouncing between a weak 215 and a moderate 845. There are a few windows of clean conditions and lighter winds, like Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th, but the swell is just too small to get excited about. It’s a solid week-plus of marginal to poor surf, a real flat spell.

But hold onto your board, because things change in a big way starting Friday the 28th of August. That afternoon, a new SSW groundswell shows up at 3ft but with a very long 19-second period, and the energy jumps to 845. The wind is clean cross-offshore. This is the first whisper of the big stuff to come.

The true standout arrives on Saturday the 29th of August. The morning pushes 4ft of SSW swell, but it’s the afternoon that gets me stoked: 4ft of SW swell at 15 seconds, clean cross-offshore wind, and wave energy surging to a strong 1078. This is a prime window for Ninja's.

Then Sunday the 30th of August is the real peak of this run. Both the morning and afternoon serve up 5ft of SSW groundswell with a 16 to 17-second period. The energy is very strong (1477 and 1376) and the wind stays a clean cross-offshore breeze. Conditions will be excellent, but again, this is expert territory at that size. The reef will be firing.

Monday the 31st of August sees the swell peak at 7ft in the morning, making it critical and dangerous for anyone but experts. The wind stays favorable, but the size is serious. This solid energy lingers into the start of September, though the wind picks up a bit on the 1st and 2nd, introducing some cross-chop.

To sum it up, skip the flat spell in the middle and mark your calendar for Friday the 28th of August onwards. The absolute best windows are the afternoons of Saturday the 29th and all day Sunday the 30th. That’s where the magic is.

Stay safe, and I’ll see you in the water.

Rusty

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