Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty checking in from the beach. Let's break down what's in the water for the next couple of weeks.

Truth be told, this is a rough stretch. The swell is tiny and the wind is mostly working against us. We're looking at a solid run of days where you’re better off staying on the sand, especially starting August 6th. The water is warm at 85°F, about 1°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s nice if you’re just hanging out.

The only break in the game is Ninja's (reef), and it’s a real mixed bag. For a beginner-friendly reef that loves south swell, the conditions are just fighting it the whole way.

The opening days are marginal. Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd have tiny waves (2ft to 2ft) with a moderate cross-offshore breeze. The swell energy is weak, sitting around (326 to 340), so there’s not much push. By Monday afternoon, it picks up a little to 4ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, and the energy hits (791), which is moderate. But the wind is still cross-off at 12 mph, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms, so it’s not exactly inviting.

Tuesday the 4th is more of the same — 4ft, SSW, long period around 15-16 seconds. Energy is moderate (679-737). That long period will help the reef shape up, but the constant 12 mph cross-off wind is the real issue. It’s just not clean enough to get excited about.

Now, Wednesday the 5th shows a little pulse. The morning has 3ft SSW with a very long 19-second period, and the combined energy hits (1093) — that’s strong wave energy for this spot. That long period groundswell could wrap in nicely at the reef, and there might be a moment of decent shape, but the cross-off wind at 12 mph is still there. The afternoon gets windier at 16 mph and the energy drops slightly (996). This is the closest thing to a standout in the whole run, but it’s a “maybe if you’re desperate” kind of day.

From Thursday the 6th through Monday the 11th of August, the wind shifts cross-shore and the swell gets messy. Wave heights run 4ft to 5ft, but the period drops to 10-11 seconds (short-period wind swell), and the energy falls into the moderate range (517 to 808). Wind is 12-16 mph onshore, creating a lumpy cross-chop. That’s poor quality. Thursday afternoon and all of Friday the 7th through Sunday the 9th are plain ugly for a paddle board. Honestly, with that much wind and chop, it’d be way more fun on a kite than a surfboard.

There’s a flicker of hope on Monday the 10th of August morning with 4ft S swell and clean cross-off wind again at 16 mph, but the period is only 10 seconds. Then Monday afternoon drops to 2ft, but with a big 20-second period and moderate energy (601). That long period could give a glassy wave at the reef if the tide lines up, but it’s a gamble.

The rest of the second week (August 12th to 17th) is a write-off for quality. The swell stays small (2ft to 5ft), mostly short-period 10-second stuff, and the wind is fresh to moderate and cross-off, but the energy is weak (198 to 530). The strongest pulse is Monday the 17th afternoon — 4ft SSW with a 16-second period and energy of (674) — but by then the wind is cross-off at 12 mph, so it’s clean but weak. That’s about six days of nothing special.

The one true standout in this entire 16-day window is Wednesday the 5th of August morning. The long-period SW groundswell at 3ft with 19 seconds and strong energy (1093) is your best shot at a clean, shapey wave at the reef. But with the constant cross-off wind, it’s not perfect. Crowds are likely at this spot, so expect company. For everything else, it’s a grind. If you’re a beginner, most of the swell over 5ft (like on the 7th and 8th) is gonna be too much, and the short period stuff won’t help. Experts might find a rare window on the 5th, but that’s about it.

Rusty.

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