Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Looks like we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up for Ninja's. The long-range outlook is showing some signs of life, but the first week is a real sleeper. We’re going to see a period of building, then fading, groundswell, but the wind and tide conditions are going to be the main players here.

Right from the get-go, Monday the 7th is a write-off. We’ve got a tiny 3ft swell from the SSE with a weak 10-second period and a cross-on wind. The water’s a touch warmer than normal at 86°F, but that’s about the only highlight. The combined energy is a weak 265. It’s a no-go.

Tuesday the 8th looks similar, with a 4ft to 4ft SE swell and a light cross-shore breeze. The energy is picking up a bit, hitting 334 on the morning, but it’s still not clean. You’d be out there for the exercise, not the waves.

We start to see a glimmer of hope on Wednesday the 9th. The wind swings offshore from the West, with a light 9 mph breeze in the morning, cleaning up the 4ft SE swell. The period stays short (9 seconds), but the energy jumps to 615. The afternoon sees a weird drop in height to 2ft, but the period goes ballistic at 17 seconds. That’s a very long-period groundswell, but it’s tiny. A 17-second period on a 2ft wave at a reef break like Ninja's can be very fickle, offering long waits and clean, but weak, lines. Still, a 2/10 is the best we’ve seen.

Thursday the 10th is where it starts to get interesting, but the forecast is cautious. The morning sees a 5ft swell from the SSW with a 16-second period, and the energy is now a strong 1507. The wind is offshore from the WNW. This is the first real standout of the period, but at 5ft and a 16-second period, it’s a proper groundswell. It’s going to be clean, but that long period might make it a bit straight at the peak. The afternoon bumps up to 5ft with the same energy levels. This is the best on offer in the first week.

Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th are the peak of this swell. We’re seeing 4ft to 5ft SSW swell with periods of 16 to 19 seconds. The energy is massive, hitting 2238 on Friday afternoon. The wind stays offshore from the West at 16 mph. This is serious, powerful groundswell. For a beginner-friendly reef, 5ft+ is pushing the limit, and the 8ft+ territory is for experts only. The 5ft on Friday is right on the edge for a beginner, but the energy is huge. The 19-second period on Friday morning is a monster. The crowds are likely here, as it’s often crowded. This is the true standout of the whole forecast. Get out there if you can.

The swell starts to drop off from Sunday the 13th. We’re still seeing 4ft SSW swell with a 15-second period on Sunday morning, but the energy is down to 798. The wind is still offshore. It’s still a very good wave, but the peak has passed.

The second week (from Monday the 14th) is a real fade-out. The swell drops to 3ft to 4ft, and the period is still solid, but the energy is moderate. The wind turns more cross-shore and stronger on the 14th, making it sloppy. There’s a brief spike in energy on Saturday the 19th with a 4ft S swell and an 18-second period, but the wind is cross-off. It’s a long shot but worth a look.

The best bet by a mile is the window from Thursday the 10th through Saturday the 12th, with the peak being Friday the 11th. That’s the one to circle. The rest of the month is a lot of waiting and watching.

Stay wet, folks.

Rusty.

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