Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up.

First thing to say is, the surf isn’t going to be huge, but for a beginner-friendly reef break like Ninja's, there’s a decent run of small, clean waves on offer. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The best of the next few days kicks off on Thursday the 16th. We’ve got a clean 3 ft swell from the SW, with a long 14-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The wind is a light cross-offshore breeze, so the waves will be smooth and lined up. Combined energy is moderate (464), and for a beginner spot, this is about as good as it gets. Don’t expect to have it to yourself though – crowds can be a thing here.

Friday the 17th drops off a touch, swell down to 2 ft and the wind goes cross-shore, bringing a little cross-chop. It’s still surfable, but not as clean.

Saturday the 18th morning looks worth a paddle again – 3 ft from the SSE with a light cross-off breeze and clean conditions. The period is a shorter 9 seconds, so it’ll be a bit more playful and less powerful, but still fun.

Sunday the 19th morning is a bit messy with some clouds and cross-shore wind, but the afternoon cleans right up with light winds and a 2 ft SSW swell. It’s small but clean.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are a mixed bag – some poor conditions and marginal tide windows, but Tuesday afternoon shows a nice clean-up with light cross-off winds and a 2 ft SSW swell. Worth a look if you’re keen.

From Wednesday the 22nd, we get a bit of a lull. The swell drops to 2–3 ft, and while the wind is offshore on Wednesday, the waves are just ordinary. Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th pick up again, with 4 ft to 4 ft from the SSE and clean cross-off winds. That’s the best looking stretch for the second week – moderate energy (332–432) and good conditions. Saturday the 25th gets windier and cross-shore, so the quality drops.

Now, looking further out, there’s a couple of intriguing pulses. On the 30th of July, a big SW groundswell rolls in, with a 4 ft to 4 ft swell and a very long period of 22–23 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. Combined energy is strong (1907–2118). But the wind is cross-shore and the conditions are marginal. For a reef break like Ninja's, that long period should wrap in nicely, but it’s going to be a bit tricky with the cross-shore breeze. The 31st of July sees a similar setup, with 5 ft from the SSW and a 19-second period, but again, cross-shore winds and a risk of thunderstorms. This swell is too big for beginners, and even for experts, the wind isn’t ideal. So while there’s energy, it’s not a standout.

Overall, the standout is Thursday the 16th: clean, light wind, and a lovely long-period groundswell for a beginner-friendly wave. The second best is the Thursday 23rd to Friday 24th run – consistent 4–4 ft with clean conditions.

Rusty.

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