Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here with the outlook for the region. We’re looking at a bit of a slow start, but there’s some serious action brewing down the line if you’re patient.

First up, the water is sitting at a warm 84°, which is about normal for this time of year – no surprises there. Right now, and for the next few days, it’s pretty ordinary. A solid southerly swell is running, around 4 ft to 4 ft with a period around 10 seconds, giving us moderate wave energy (377), but the wind is a messy cross-shore breeze. It’s all chop and bump, so unless you’re keen on a frustrating paddle, I’d give Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th a miss. Monday the 17th stays average with similar winds and messy conditions.

Things finally start to change from Tuesday the 18th. That’s when we see a solid southwest groundswell arrive, pushing 6 ft to 7 ft with a long period of 18 seconds. The wave energy jumps right up (2519) and the wind ticks around to a light cross-offshore breeze, cleaning the lines right up. This is for experienced surfers only though, as that size (over 5 ft) will be too much for the beginners. That long period (over 15 seconds) means the wave faces will have excellent shape, but it might break a bit straight on the beach, so look for a corner. Wednesday the 19th is nearly as good with 5 ft swell and clean conditions, still a solid cross-off breeze.

Now, if you can wait, the real standout is looking like the end of the run. We’ve got a gap of a few days of smaller, cleaner but marginal surf through the end of the week. Then, around Friday the 28th of August, a big pulse of SSW swell kicks in, hitting 5 ft on the Friday afternoon and building to a solid 8 ft on Saturday the 29th. That’s a big southwest groundswell with a period of 18 seconds and wave energy going through the roof (4055). The wind stays in a cross-off or gentle offshore direction, which is a major positive. Again, this is expert-only territory, as anything over 8 ft is serious. The long period (over 15 seconds) at a beach break will mean long, walling sets with big gaps between them.

The second week has another push on Sunday the 30th with 6 ft to 6 ft SSW swell and clean winds, making for excellent conditions for those who know what they’re doing.

So, the best of the lot is definitely the Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th period. That’s a big, clean groundswell (4055 energy) with cross-offshore winds at Ninja's. It’s a reef break that is fairly consistent, so the shape should be on, but be aware crowds are often a factor here. The optimal swell direction is from the south, and this is coming from the SSW, which is close enough for a good result.

That’s the picture from here. Keep an eye on the sky, and don’t be a kook.

Rusty.

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