Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m lookin’ at the next couple of weeks at Ninja’s.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 85°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – no big surprises there.

Now, I gotta be straight with you: the start of this forecast period is a bit of a slow burn. Tuesday the 21st is a write-off. We’ve got tiny 2ft swell from the SSW with a cross-on breeze, and the energy is weak (299). Not worth paddling out for.

The first real glimmer of hope comes in on Wednesday morning the 22nd. The swell drops to 3ft, but it’s from the SSE with a short 8-second period. The big win here is the glassy conditions – offshore wind from the W at just 3 mph. That’ll have the surface looking like a mirror. The energy is moderate (213). It’s a small day, but for a beginner-friendly reef break, it’s a clean little window.

Thursday the 23rd is a bit more of the same, with SSE swell building to 4ft and a period up to 9-10 seconds. The wind stays clean, cross-off from the NW at 6 mph. The energy is ramping up (323-360). This is where it starts to feel like a proper session.

Now, Friday the 24th is a real standout. The swell drops in height to 2ft, but the period stretches out to 13 seconds from the SW. That’s a proper groundswell, and the energy jumps to 417. The wind is still light and cross-off from the NW. For a reef break, a long-period SW swell is a beautiful thing – it’ll line up nicely. If you can get out Friday morning, that’s the pick of the first week.

Saturday the 25th gets a bit mixed. The morning holds cross-off wind and 3ft SSW swell at 13 seconds (energy 333). That’s still really good. But by the afternoon, the wind swings cross-shore and the swell direction shifts to SE. The energy jumps to 528, but the cross wind makes it messier. Still, a long-period swell with that much energy (528) is worth a look if you don’t mind a bit of chop.

There’s a bit of a lull from Sunday the 26th through to Tuesday the 28th. The swell stays around 4ft to 5ft from the SE, but the wind is cross-shore most of the time. The energy is actually high (up to 769 on Sunday afternoon), but the cross wind takes the shine off. Tuesday afternoon the 28th gets a bit of a stronger cross-wind (12 mph), which turns it into a chop fest.

Heading into the second week, things get more interesting but also a bit more uncertain. Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th see a new SW groundswell, but the wind is up to 12-15 mph from the WSW, cross-shore. The energy is strong (529-664), but it’s a battle against the wind. Thursday afternoon the 30th might be the best of that bunch, as the wind goes cross-off, cleaning it up a touch.

Friday the 31st has a burst of energy (850) with a 17-second period SSW swell, but there’s a risk of thunderstorms and the wind is still strong. That’s a lot of raw power, but it’s not gonna be pretty.

Saturday the 1st of August is a similar story – big energy (863-878) from the SSW, but the wind is cross-shore and there’s storm risk. If you’re an expert and you can handle some gnarly conditions, the swell is there.

Sunday the 2nd of August looks like a drop-off, with smaller S swell and onshore wind. Not your day.

Looking at the very end of the run, Monday the 3rd of August through Wednesday the 5th of August shows a cleaner trend. The wind goes back to cross-off from the W, and the swell sits around 5ft to 5ft from the SSE with a period of 10-11 seconds. The energy is strong (up to 778). For a reef break, that’s a solid, clean, punchy wave. The only catch: the swell is getting up to 5ft, which is getting a bit punchy for beginners, but for the crew that knows what they’re doing, it’s a promising end to the run.

Bottom line: The standout is Friday morning the 24th – small but clean, long-period SW groundswell. The close of the window, from the 3rd to the 5th of August, offers the most consistent clean surf with decent size. That’s the one to pencil in, but remember, it’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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