Ninja's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at this patch of ocean for Ninja’s (reef) for the next couple of weeks. It’s a classic reef setup, exposed to the swell, but the wind is going to be a constant talking point. The water’s sitting at a warm 85°F which is about normal for this time of year, so ditch the wetsuit.

The first week is a bit of a slow burner. We’ve got some swell around, but the wind is mostly cross or slight cross, making things a bit messy. Sunday morning, the 19th, is a write-off – small 3ft SSE swell with a short 8-second period and a cross-on breeze, just poor surf conditions and weak energy (189). Sunday afternoon is the same story with a marginal forecast. Monday and Tuesday are barely a step up; the swell is tiny and the winds are still cross, so it’s a struggle. Wednesday morning, the 22nd, we finally get a bit of a reprieve with a light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW and a clean 3ft swell from the SSE, but it’s still short period at 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (194). By Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday, the wind stays light cross-off, and the swell holds around 3ft, period stretching to 9 seconds. The surf is clean, but the size is modest. It’s surfable, but nothing to get wild about.

Friday, the 24th, is where the energy starts to pick up. The morning has a 4ft SSE swell with a 9-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-off from the WNW. The combined energy jumps to 410, which is a solid moderate punch. The afternoon is similar, though a touch smaller. Saturday the 25th is a mixed bag – the morning has a clean 3ft SSW swell with a long 13-second period, but the energy is still hefty at 448. The afternoon though, the wind swings cross and the swell shifts to 4ft SE with a 10-second period, and the forecast gets marginal. It’s a frustrating day.

The standout window is the end of the second week. From Thursday the 30th through to Sunday the 2nd of August, the swell kicks up nicely. Thursday the 30th has a 4ft SSW swell with a very long 18-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-off from the W. The combined energy is a strong 1249. That’s proper groundswell, and at a reef, the long period will mean good, lined-up waves, though the sets will be a bit wider apart. Friday the 31st is the best of the lot – 5ft SSW swell, 16-second period, and clean cross-off winds. The energy is 1263 in the morning, and 1325 in the afternoon. That’s strong wave energy. This is for the experienced crew; 5ft is at the top of the beginner range, but with the period and the reef, it’s a fun wave for an intermediate. The only hiccup is the crowds – this spot is often busy, so you’ll have company. The wind stays clean, and the waves are quality.

Saturday the 1st of August backs off a touch to 4ft, but still a good 15-second period, and Sunday the 2nd of August has a crisp 3ft SSW swell with a 17-second period and clean wind. The energy is still strong at 883. The second week’s forecast is promising, but as always, keep an eye on it. The gap between the first week’s mediocrity and this proper swell is a few days of just okay surf.

The last few days of the forecast, the 3rd of August, the wind picks up to a moderate cross-shore, and the swell drops to 3ft. The energy is still high at 1020, but the wind chop will make it less appealing. The main event is definitely the 30th of July through to the 2nd of August.

Rusty.

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