Hornitos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a 16-day stretch ahead, and I’ll be honest with you, it’s a tough one. The long-range models are showing a constant supply of small, weak swell, and the conditions are just never quite right. There’s a persistent trickle of long-period groundswell, but the energy is low and the winds are a constant problem. The best wave of the whole period is a marginal one, and even then, it’s a far cry from a classic day.

The whole run is a flat spell, really. Days and days of poor surf conditions or marginal forecasts, with nothing to get excited about. The only place showing any pulse at all is Hornitos, a consistent intermediate spot that’s fairly exposed to the SW. The water is sitting at 65°, which is a whopping 5° warmer than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be in a spring suit or even a shorty.

The first hint of something rideable shows up on Thursday, September 3rd, but it’s a tease. We’re looking at a 2ft SW swell at a very long 18 seconds, but with a light cross-onshore breeze and a "poor surf conditions" tag. The combined energy is moderate (410), but the wind is just enough to mess it up. Friday the 4th is a little better, with the swell tickling 4ft from the WSW at 14 seconds, and the wind goes light onshore. The energy bumps up to a moderate 718, but it’s still a marginal call. The light breeze is about as good as it gets for this break.

The consistency is there, with small, long-period pulses rolling in for days, but the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore. The few times the breeze goes light offshore, the swell is tiny. For example, the morning of Sunday, September 6th has a 2ft, 18-second swell with a light offshore wind, but it’s a mere 428 energy and tagged as marginal. It’s a glassy wave, but it’s knee-high.

The best call of the whole 16 days is a toss-up between the morning of Friday, September 4th and the morning of Saturday, September 12th. Friday the 4th has a 4ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period, light offshore wind, and the highest energy of the entire run (649). That’s the biggest, cleanest wave you’ll see. The morning of Saturday the 12th has a 4ft, 9-second swell with a light offshore breeze, but the period is shorter, meaning the wave will be weaker and more crumbly. The energy is lower (294) too. So, Friday the 4th is the one to aim for, but don’t expect a classic. It’s the least bad option.

After that, it’s a slow bleed. The swell drops, the winds shift, and the combined energy falls into the 100-300 range. The last week of the forecast is a flat, white-capped mess. The afternoons of the 9th and 10th are particularly grim with a gentle cross-onshore breeze making it choppy. By the 17th and 18th, the energy is down to 100 or less, and the swell period is dropping to 7-8 seconds, which is just wind chop. The whole thing flat-lines.

So, to sum it up: if you’re desperate, point your car at Hornitos on the morning of Friday, September 4th. Bring a small board, maybe a fish, and don’t expect much. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off for a proper paddle session. It’s the kind of setup that’s more interesting for the kite crew than us surfers.

Rusty.

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