Fourth Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – this 16-day window for Fourth Beach is a real mixed bag, and honestly, it’s a bit of a frustrating outlook for the average punter. There are some absolute monsters of swell, but the wind is just going to mess it up most of the time.

We’re looking at a real slow start, with no real surf to get excited about until the end of the first week. The first few days are a write-off. The swell is there, but it’s blown out. From the 10th to the 13th of July, we’ve got a building swell, but it’s all cross-onshore or cross-shore, and the wind is pumping. Friday the 10th has some clouds and a 6ft SW swell with a 12-second period, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the SW, making it cross-on and lumpy. The combined energy is a solid 1609, but it’s useless. The water temp is about average for the time of year at 62°F.

The weekend of the 11th and 12th is no better. Saturday the 11th has a 8ft SSW swell, but it’s choppy with a moderate breeze. Sunday the 12th brings a 10ft SSW swell with a very long 16-second period, and the energy is pumping at 4745, but it’s cross-shore and messy. The afternoon gets even worse. For a beach break, that long period groundswell is going to break straight and be a handful, even with the size.

The standout session, and the only time I’d really be paddling out, is Tuesday morning the 14th of July. The wind finally swings offshore from the north at just 6 mph. It’s glassy, clean, and the swell is a solid 10ft from the SSW with a 15-second period. The combined energy is a very strong 4149. This is big, powerful, and clean – proper expert territory. It’s well over 8ft, so leave the foamboard at home. Only for the experienced crew. Crowds are only “sometimes” an issue, so on a Tuesday morning you might get a few sets to yourself.

Wednesday the 15th is another decent option, but it’s a step down. The morning is offshore with a fresh 19 mph north wind, which will keep it clean, but the swell has dropped to 6ft from the SSW with a 14-second period. The energy is a moderate 1377. The afternoon is better with a lighter 12 mph offshore NNE breeze, and the swell is 5ft with energy at 1443. It’s clean, but not the same size.

After that, the 16th through the 18th is a mess of wind and rain, with the swell dropping right off. The 17th has a 4ft SW swell, but it’s cross-shore and choppy. The 18th is a joke – near gale winds and rain.

The second week gets interesting again, but it’s a long way off. The standout for the second week is Wednesday morning the 22nd of July. Offshore 6 mph north wind, and a huge 12ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, energy at 3743. It’s clean, but again, that’s expert-only territory. It’s a promising call, but it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it.

The 25th of July has a clean 7ft SW swell in the afternoon, with a fresh offshore wind, but it’s a distant call.

Overall, there’s a good window from the 14th to the 15th, and a potential one on the 22nd, but the rest of the 16 days is a lot of waiting. The swell is often too big or the wind is too strong. For a beach break, the long-period swells will be tricky. If you’re not an expert, this is a trip to the pub, not the surf. For the kites, the strong cross-shore winds on the 18th and 19th look like a much better time.

Rusty.

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