Explosivos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's talk about what we've got cookin' for Explosivos.

Look, I gotta be straight with you. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a grind. It's not a total washout, but there's nothing that's gonna have you ringing your mates at 5 AM. We're looking at a consistent run of swell, but the wind is just never quite on our side. The water is a weird 70° right now, which is a massive 7° warmer than usual for this time of year — that's super unusual, feels more like a bath than the ocean.

The whole period is just a series of cross-on or cross winds, keeping things a bit lumpy. The combined energy sits around the 800s to 900s for most of it (moderate), so there's push, but it's never clean enough to get really excited about.

For the first week, from Tuesday the 14th to the 20th, we're looking at a solid 4ft to 5ft SSW swell (13-second period), but it's all cross-on. The wind is light, 6 to 9 mph from the S or SSW, but it's just enough to mess up the face. The mornings are your best bet, but even then, it's "marginal." Thursday the 16th morning has the best combo of the week with 5ft SSW swell and a light breeze, but it's still cross-on, so it's a "maybe" session, not a "must-go."

The second week picks up a little. The 21st of July sees a bump to 6ft with the swell, but again, cross-on wind. The real standout, if you can call it that, is the 27th of July. The swell drops to 3ft, but the period stretches out to a very long 18 seconds from the SW. That's proper groundswell energy. The combined energy shoots up to 958 (strong), but that long period is gonna make Explosivos, being a sandbar, break a bit fat and straight. It's a tricky one. The wind is still cross-on, but almost calm. This is the most promising window, but it's a long way out and the wind could easily change.

Honestly, my pick of the lot is Wednesday the 29th of July. The swell bumps back up to 5ft from the SW at 14 seconds, and the combined energy hits 1050 (strong). The wind is still a light cross-on, so it's not perfect, but it's the most powerful, cleanest-looking swell we get. For a sandbar, that long period might make it a bit walled-up, but it's the best chance of the whole run for a decent wave.

The rest of the time? It's a waiting game. The surf is there, but the quality is just not. For a spot that's usually consistent, this is a frustrating run of nearly-onshores. I'd keep an eye on that last week of July, but don't book the day off.

Rusty.

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