Explosivos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, your local surf guide. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Explosivos. This is a sandbar setup that’s consistent and takes a southwest swell really well. The water is way warmer than usual for this time of year, sittin’ at 70°F with a 7°F anomaly – that’s a real warm bath compared to normal.

The next couple of weeks start off frustrating. From Wednesday afternoon through to about the middle of the month, the swell is on the smaller side, mostly between 3ft and 5ft, with a mix of SSW and SW swell. The energy is moderate but nothin’ to get excited about – combined energy values sit in the 600 to 800 range, basically a long, drawn-out run of ‘kinda surfable’ but not really firing. Winds are light and mostly cross-onshore, which keeps things a bit bumpy, not clean. The morning of the 10th (Friday) has a brief moment of 5ft SW swell with the wind straight onshore, but it’s still marginal. Honestly, through the first week and into the second, it’s a grind – the scores are low, and the wave comment keeps sayin’ “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” There’s a gap here where nothing really stands out as a good session.

Now, hang on – things start to get interesting around the 19th of July. That Sunday morning you’ll see the swell bump up to 5ft from the SW, with combined energy jumpin’ to 1111 – that’s moderate to strong energy, finally some punch. The winds are light, from the SW at 3 mph, so it’s cross-onshore but very light, almost glassy. By Sunday afternoon, the swell hits 6ft from the SW, energy spikes to 1480, and the wind goes cross-shore – that’s a solid setup for a sandbar like Explosivos. The swell period is 13 seconds, a nice groundswell that’ll wrap in with shape. This is the standout: the 19th and into the 20th, with Monday morning still holdin’ 6ft SW swell, light south winds, and energy at 1364. This is the best on offer in the whole 16-day window. The swell is around 6ft, so it’s a bit much for beginners, but for advanced crew, it’s perfect. The direction is SW, which is right in the sweet spot for this break. Crowds are possible here – it’s listed as “sometimes” busy, so expect a few locals out, but it’s a consistent break, so there’ll be waves for everyone.

After that, things taper off a bit. The 21st still has 5ft SW swell, but energy drops to 939, and the wind picks up to 9 mph on the 21st afternoon, turnin’ cross-shore with a bit of chop. The 22nd and 23rd keep the swell around 5ft to 6ft, but the magic is gone. The very end of the run, the 23rd of July, has a 5ft SSW swell with a light NW wind, which is cross-onshore but maybe worth a look if you’re keen.

So, bottom line: the first week and a half is a write-off – small, bumpy, boring. The real action is on the 19th and 20th of July. That’s your window. Get out there Sunday morning or afternoon, and Monday morning for the best of it. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but it’s lookin’ promising.

Rusty.

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