Explosivos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Explosivos over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a bit of a slow burn, so don’t go getting too excited just yet.

The overall pattern is a drawn-out run of small, marginal surf that doesn’t really gather steam until the very end of the window. We’re starting with a small pulse of long-period groundswell, but the conditions are just off enough to keep things from firing. There’s a big gap of pretty ordinary, weak energy days in the middle, and then we’re looking at a late-September hope that could turn into something.

Monday morning the 14th kicks things off with a clean 3 ft swell out of the SW, with an 18-second period. That’s proper long-period groundswell giving the waves some shape, but the combined energy is only moderate at 720 and the wind is light, straight offshore from the SW. The water temp is about average for this time of year. The trouble is the report says the quality is marginal, likely thanks to the tide. It’s a glassy start, but don’t expect perfection. By the afternoon, the wind goes light cross-onshore and it gets a bit lumpy.

Tuesday the 15th sees the swell bump up slightly to 4 ft, still SW, but the period drops to 15 seconds. The wind stays light cross-onshore, so it’s clean enough to paddle out, but again the forecast calls it marginal.

From Wednesday the 16th through to the end of that week and into the next, the energy really fades. We’re looking at swell heights dropping down to between 1 ft and 3 ft, with combined energy figures as low as 137 to 397 – that’s weak to very weak energy, partner. The winds are mostly cross-onshore or cross, and the reports keep calling it poor. Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th do bring back some longer period (17-19 seconds) but the swell itself is tiny, only 2-2 ft. There’s a full week of just leftover, marginal junk here.

There is a flicker of hope as we head into the second week. By Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd it’s flat, with energy levels dropping below 200. Then on Wednesday the 23rd we see a tiny 3 ft bump, but it’s weak and short period. Honestly, nothing stands out until we get to Saturday the 26th of September. That’s the standout.

Saturday the 26th shows a 3 ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy jumps back up to a moderate 744. The wind goes light cross for the afternoon, which is a solid step up from the cross-onshore we’ve been dealing with. It’s still rated as marginal, but it’s the best energy and best wind combination in the entire 16-day run. This is your chance for a few clean, punchy waves on the sandbar. Sunday the 27th keeps that momentum with 4 ft SSW swell at 13-12 seconds and energy in the 700-800 range. The wind stays manageable, light cross to cross, making it a clean-looking window.

Between the 26th and 29th we see some lingering SW and S swells, but by Tuesday the 29th the wind picks up and the quality drops off again.

So the bottom line: don't chase the first few days. The real, only standout here is the weekend of the 26th and 27th of September, when a moderate-energy SSW swell meets the best winds in the forecast. It’s not huge, it’s not perfect, but for a sandbar like Explosivos, it’s the cleanest shot you’ll get in this outlook.

Rusty.

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