Explosivos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are looking like a mixed bag, but there’s some serious promise on the horizon if you’re willing to wait.

Right now, the water temperature at Explosivos (sandbar) is a notable 71°F, which is a whopping 8°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual, so you’ll be sweating in your wetsuit if you wear one.

The forecast kicks off with small, marginal surf. Saturday the 18th has some waist-to-chest high swell (4ft) coming from the SSW with a period of 11 seconds, but the wind is a light cross-onshore, so it’s a bit messy. The combined swell energy is moderate (492). Sunday the 19th sees a little bump in size to 5ft from the SW, and the period stretches to 13 seconds, giving it more push. Wind is still light cross-onshore, so it’s not pristine, but it’s ridable. Energy steps up to 857. Monday the 20th drops back to 4ft, and the rest of the week into the 24th stays small, generally under 4ft, with light winds and mostly cross-onshore conditions. The energy is moderate, and the quality is just not there for a standout session.

There’s a bit of a weird spike on Thursday the 23rd morning with a 2ft swell but a period of 24 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell. That’s going to be super inconsistent and breaking straight at the beach, not ideal. Energy is moderate (796).

Now, the real interest starts building around Sunday the 26th. The morning has 3ft at 20 seconds, but the afternoon pushes to 3ft at 19 seconds, and the energy climbs into strong territory (1110). This is a long period SW groundswell. It’s still cross-onshore, so the shape will be a bit lumpy, but it’s a sign of things to come.

Monday the 27th is where it gets more interesting. The morning brings 5ft from the SW at 17 seconds, with a light cross-onshore. Energy is strong at 1296. The afternoon bumps to 5ft at 16 seconds, but the wind picks up to a gentle breeze, making it choppier. Still, the swell is building.

The standout period arrives Tuesday the 28th. This is the best on offer. Both morning and afternoon see 7ft of SW swell at 15 seconds, with light cross-onshore winds. The combined energy is very strong (1804 and 1970). However, at over 7ft, this is getting into expert-only territory at a sandbar, and the wind is not fully offshore. The waves will have power, but the cross-onshore component will keep the surface a little bumpy. Not perfect, but the most consistent size and energy in the whole window.

Wednesday the 29th still has solid size (7ft in the morning, 6ft in the afternoon) but the wind is light and onshore/cross-onshore, and the energy is dropping. The following days into early August mix smaller swells (3ft to 6ft) with some very long periods (19-20 seconds) and a big spike in energy on the 2nd of August (over 2500), but the wind turns cross-shore and cross-onshore with a gentle breeze, so it’s not the cleanest.

If you’re an expert looking for the biggest push, aim for Tuesday the 28th. For everyone else, the Sunday the 26th to Monday the 27th might offer the most manageable size, though the conditions are still a little compromised.

Rusty.

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