Explosivos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for our local sandbar, Explosivos.

The next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak overall. We’ve got some swell showing up, but the wind and conditions are just not playing ball for a decent paddle session. There’s a long stretch of poor to marginal surf in the first week, so don’t get your hopes up. We’re looking at a run of messy, choppy conditions with wind mostly cross or cross-onshore, which just wrecks the face.

Starting off on Thursday the 10th, there’s some swell at 4ft from the SW, but the water is warm, 69° – that's much warmer than normal for this time of year, a full 4° anomaly. However, a 12 mph southerly breeze is creating a cross-chop, making it pretty ugly. The energy is moderate though, around 806. The next few days just repeat the story: a bit more size on the Friday and Saturday, with 6ft and 5ft from the S, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore and the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s going to be messy and weak. The energy drops off a cliff too, from 731 down to 423. By Sunday the 13th, it’s a similar story with a 5ft S swell but a short 7-second period and 12 mph cross-shore wind, kickin’ up chop.

We finally get a change in the pattern on Monday the 14th. The swell drops back to 3ft, but it switches to a long-period groundswell from the SW with a 17-18 second period. The wind turns light offshore, which is *very* promising for clean waves, even if it’s small. This is the kind of setup where Explosivos could actually hold a nice shape. Energy is moderate, around 723. That light offshore sticks around for the Tuesday morning on the 15th too, with a 4ft SW swell and a 15-second period. It looks like it could be a decent few hours if you time the tide right, but the score is marginal.

Then we slide back into a funk from Wednesday the 16th through to Saturday the 19th. Swell size stays under 3ft, winds are cross-onshore again, periods drop off, and the energy is low. It’s just a grey, choppy mess.

Now, into the second week, we see a pulse of energy around Sunday the 20th. Swell height bumps up to 5ft from the S, but the period is a weak 7-8 seconds and the cross-shore wind keeps it messy. Honestly, with that wind and short period, you’d be better off on a kiteboard here.

The best bet in this whole outlook, and I mean the one that stands out, is Monday morning, September 14th. It’s a small, clean groundswell with light offshore wind. It won’t be big, but it’ll be your only chance at anything with a bit of shape.

For the final few days, from the 22nd to the 25th, it's more of the same: small, onshore slop. The 24th and 25th have some longer period SW swells coming through (up to 22 seconds!), but the swell height is barely 3ft and the wind is still cross-onshore. That long period means it could wall up and be hard to catch on a beach break, but the potential is there if the wind co-operates. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it.

Bottom line: Don't get too excited. The first week is a write-off, with Monday the 14th being the only real glimmer of hope for a clean wave. The second week might offer a few more windows, but it’s a lottery.

Rusty.

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