El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on offer at El Estero for the next couple of weeks. It’s a slow start, so don’t be in a hurry. The first proper waves worth getting wet for don’t really show up until the morning of Wednesday the 13th, but even then, it’s more about getting a feel for it.

We’ve got a couple of standout mornings. Thursday the 14th is a real bright spot. You’re looking at a 4ft swell from the SW, with that deep, long-period energy at 18 seconds – proper groundswell. The mornings are clean with a cross-offshore wind, and the wave energy is kicking at 926 (moderate). That’s a solid session. But then the arvo gets a bit lumpy with a cross-onshore, so get out early.

Now, the real gem in the whole 16-day window is Sunday the 16th. The morning is glassy—zero wind—with a clean 4ft SW swell. The water temp anomaly is about average for the time of year. The wave comment says "expect very good surf conditions," which rarely gets better than that. The afternoon holds clean with a cross-offshore. This is your best day. Energy sits around 606-629 (moderate), which for this setup is plenty. After that, we keep getting small but fun mornings right through to the 18th and 19th, all clean.

The second week tails off. By Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd, we’re down to knee-high 1-2ft waves. The mornings are clean, but the afternoons get messy. There’s a late pulse around the 23rd with a 2ft, 19-second period swell. That’s a very long period, which will hold up nicely at this river mouth, but it’s not big. It’ll be a long wait between sets, but shape should be good on the Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. Energy is weak to moderate (240-284). It’s a promising end to the run, but at two weeks out, keep your expectations in check.

So, to sum it up: hit the mornings, especially Thursday 14th and Sunday 16th. The river break can handle the long-period swell nicely, and the crowds are often around, but on those mornings it’s well worth it.

Rusty.

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