El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for El Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, this is a river mouth set-up that’s exposed to the west-northwest, and it’s consistent, which is good news. The water’s running a touch warmer than normal for this time of year at 86°, nice for a long session without a wetsuit.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start right now, but the first real standout hits us on Sunday morning, September 6th. We’re looking at head-high swell at 5 ft from the southwest with a long 14-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is sitting at 855 (moderate), and the kicker is the glassy conditions with an ESE breeze at just 3 mph. This is going to be clean and lined up, especially for a river mouth. Keep in mind it’s a river break, so that long period should wrap in nicely. Expect it to be a touch busy though – crowds are often around.

Monday morning the 7th holds onto similar energy with a clean 4 ft SW swell and a light cross-offshore breeze. It’s not quite as powerful, but still very good fun.

Now, if you’re an experienced surfer, circle Thursday morning, September 10th. The swell holds at 4 ft from the southwest but the period stretches to 17 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1144 (strong). That’s a lot of push. This is excellent, but with that size and power – over 5 ft – it’s moving out of beginner territory and into the realm of the seasoned crew. The moderate offshore wind from the ENE at 12 mph is going to hold the faces open nicely. This is the pick of the run for a bigger, more powerful wave.

From Friday the 11th, we start to see the swell back off a bit. Mornings are clean with offshore or cross-off breezes, but the swell drops below 4 ft. Saturday morning the 12th is still a good option with a clean 3 ft, but we’re winding down.

The second week, from the 14th onward, gets pretty small. The swell dips to around 2 ft to 2 ft in the mornings, and the energy drops significantly (down to 175-248, weak). Even though there are some glassy starts on Monday the 14th and Sunday the 20th, the waves will be tiny. It’s surfable but nothing to get excited about. The mornings are the only time to look – the afternoons get chopped up by cross-onshore winds.

Overall, this is a two-wave window. The Sunday morning glass-off and the Thursday morning bigger swell are your best shots. After that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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