El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what the next couple of weeks are looking like.

The first real surf kicks off on Friday morning, August 7th, but it’s a slow start. We’ve got a long-period groundswell from the SSW, with an 18-second period, but it’s small at 2 ft. The combined energy is moderate (377). The water is sitting at 86°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The morning has a moderate cross-offshore breeze from the ENE, so it’ll be clean but a bit breezy. The afternoon cleans right up with a light ESE breeze, still cross-off, and the swell nudges up to 2 ft. It’s not a standout, but it’s a fun little session.

Saturday, August 8th is where we start to get excited. The morning is clean with a solid offshore breeze from the ENE at 15 mph, and the swell builds to 3 ft from the SSW with a 16-second period. The energy is solid (580). Then the afternoon goes glassy – zero wind, from the south, and the swell hits 3 ft from the SW. Clean, lined up, and very user-friendly. This is one of the best windows in the whole outlook.

Sunday morning, August 9th, keeps the offshore wind and 3 ft swell, but the period drops to 14 seconds. The afternoon is still offshore and clean, but the energy is starting to fade. Monday and Tuesday mornings hold clean, rideable 3 ft swell with light offshore winds, so it’s worth a paddle. Tuesday afternoon, though, the wind swings cross-onshore from the SW, and the sea gets choppy. That’s the end of the first good run.

We hit a dry spell from Wednesday, August 12th, through Thursday, August 13th. The swell is small, the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the conditions are poor. Not worth it.

Friday, August 14th is a serious standout. The morning sees 4 ft of SSW groundswell with a long 18-second period and a big jump in energy (804). The afternoon is where it gets excellent: clean cross-offshore wind from the ESE, and the swell energy rockets up to 1028. The swell is 4 ft, but with that period and energy, it will have some punch. This is one for the experienced surfers – the wave quality will be top-notch, and with that long period, look for the waves to wrap nicely into the river mouth. Crowds are possible here, so get out early.

Saturday, August 15th, the swell builds to 5 ft in the morning, with a strong ENE cross-offshore breeze at 22 mph. The energy is very strong (1118). That’s a lot of power, and the wind is fresh, so this is definitely for the experienced crew only. The afternoon eases to 4 ft with a clean offshore, still good energy (908). Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th stay in the 4 ft to 4 ft range with clean conditions, so there’s a solid run of surf here.

The next real highlight is Tuesday, August 18th. Clean, gentle offshore wind from the ENE, and a 4 ft SSW swell with a 15-second period. The energy is strong (551), and the conditions are set up for very good surf. Wednesday, August 19th afternoon goes glassy again with a 4 ft swell and 14-second period, offering another clean, smooth session.

The last week of the outlook tails off. The swell stays around 3 ft to 4 ft, but the wind patterns get messy – cross-onshore and onshore breezes start to chop things up. Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st mornings are clean, but the afternoons are poor. Saturday the 22nd has a clean morning, but the afternoon is a cross-shore mess.

Best bets: Saturday afternoon, August 8th for the glassy, clean 3 ft waves, and Friday afternoon, August 14th for the bigger, more powerful groundswell with excellent conditions.

Stay safe, and don’t be a kook.

Rusty.

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