El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yo, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up for El Estero over the next couple weeks. It’s not a non-stop barrel fest, but there are some proper windows coming, especially if you play the mornings.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start, but by Saturday morning, July 4th, it’s already looking rideable. The swell’s coming from the SSW at 3 ft, with a long 16-second period – that’s proper groundswell, so the river mouth setup should be handling it well. Winds are light and cross-off from the NE at 6 mph, leaving the surface clean. Combined energy is moderate at 429. Not huge, but clean and lined up. That same afternoon the wind picks up to a moderate 12 mph offshore from the ENE, keeping things clean but a bit more breezy. Still good.

Sunday morning, July 5th, drops a touch to 2 ft from the SW, but still a nice 15-second period. Light offshore ENE breeze at 6 mph. Clean again. But don’t hang around for the afternoon – a risk of thunderstorms and a cross-on SW wind at 9 mph chop things up quick.

Monday morning, July 6th, now we’re talking. The swell is only 2 ft from the SW, but the period jumps to 20 seconds – that’s *very* long period groundswell. The energy is strong at 770. Clear skies, a gentle offshore breeze from the ENE at 9 mph. Clean, glassy conditions for the river mouth. This is a standout morning for the patient surfer who can read those long-period sets.

Tuesday morning, July 7th, the swell builds to 4 ft from the SW, 18-second period, with a cross-off NE breeze at 9 mph. The energy jumps to 1163 – strong. Excellent conditions for experienced surfers, but that’s holding at 4 ft, still very manageable. Tuesday afternoon pushes to 5 ft but the wind goes onshore from the W, so it’s a morning-only show.

Wednesday afternoon, July 8th, is a sneaky good one – the swell drops to 4 ft from the SW, 16-second period, but the wind goes glassy from the SW at just 3 mph. That’s rare. Combined energy is still moderate at 765. Expect clean, smooth walls.

After that, it trickles down into the 3 ft to 2 ft range through the second week, with a mix of clean mornings and tricky afternoons. The real highlight for the longer range is Sunday morning, July 19th – swell bumps back up to 4 ft from the SSW, period stretching to a long 18 seconds, combined energy at 887 (strong), and a clean cross-off NE breeze at 9 mph. That’s a promising end to the outlook, though it’s still two weeks out, so keep an eye on it.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Remember, when that period gets over 15 seconds at the river mouth like on the 6th, the sets can be a bit more spaced out, so don’t get caught sleeping inside. But the shape should be proper.

No standout that’s too big for anyone, mostly in that 2 ft to 4 ft sweet spot for intermediates. Crowds are likely at El Estero – it’s often busy, so get there early.

That’s the picture. Stay stoked.

Rusty

Read more