El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s on the menu for the next couple weeks. We’ve only got one break in the running this time, and it’s a classic: El Estero.

We’re kicking off Monday afternoon, July 6th, with some proper energy in the water. A solid 3 ft groundswell out of the SW is pumping in with a very long period of 19 seconds. The water temp is sitting at 86°, which feels a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The conditions couldn’t look better to start – glassy, calm winds, zero bump. The combined swell energy is strong at 1203, so there’s plenty of push out there. This is a river mouth setup, so that long-period swell is going to line up beautifully, offering up some real shape. Crowds are likely though, as it’s often busy here.

Tuesday morning, July 7th, brings in a moderate offshore breeze from the ENE at 12 mph, holding the waves up clean with that 4 ft SW groundswell still rolling through at 18 seconds. The energy is still strong at 1126. Tuesday afternoon sees the wind drop right back to glassy with a 5 ft swell and energy hitting 1263. That afternoon session is going to be pure silk.

Wednesday morning, July 8th, the wind swings cross-offshore at 16 mph, and the swell drops a little to 4 ft from the SSW with 16 seconds. There’s a bit of chop creeping in, and the energy is down to 864. The quality is starting to fade, and by Wednesday afternoon it gets a bit bumpy with a light cross-onshore, so the magic is wearing off.

Thursday and Friday, July 9th and 10th, we see the swell ease back under 3 ft with periods dropping to the 15-16 second range. Mornings stay clean with a cross-offshore breeze, but afternoons get messy with storm risks and onshore wind. Energy drops into the 400-500 range. It’s fun for a casual paddle, but nothing to write home about.

The second week looks smaller. From Saturday, July 11th, through the following Tuesday, July 21st, we’re mostly in knee-to-waist high territory. Swell hovers between 1 ft and 3 ft, with periods bouncing between 13 and 18 seconds. There are still clean windows – like Sunday morning, July 12th with that glassy 3 ft – and a few mornings with gentle offshore breezes. But the combined energy drops right down to the 80-450 range, so it’s weak. By Sunday, July 19th, there’s even a morning with zero swell at all.

There’s a glimmer on Monday afternoon, July 20th: a 2 ft SW swell with 16 seconds, glassy calm conditions again, and energy at 251. It’s small, but clean. Tuesday morning, July 21st, also offers a clean 2 ft with a gentle offshore.

The standout windows? No question – it’s the first two days. Monday afternoon, July 6th, and Tuesday afternoon, July 7th. That’s the pick of the forecast. Solid, long-period groundswell, glassy conditions, and the river mouth handling that long-period energy like a dream. After that, it’s a slow taper with choppier afternoons and smaller swells. Don’t hold your breath for the second week unless you just want a quiet, clean paddle on a small board.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change. Rusty out.

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