El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

We’re kicking things off at El Estero, a river mouth that’s exposed to the WNW. Right now, the water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing weird going on. The forecast starts with a bit of a quiet spell, but don’t write it off just yet.

Sunday the 19th is a bit of a slow starter with 2ft swell from the SW, but the real story is the long period – 19 seconds – and a clean cross-off wind. The energy is moderate (217), so you’ll get some nice, lined-up waves, but the sets will be few and far between. It’s a mellow day for a paddle.

Monday morning the 20th sees the swell bump up to 2.5ft with a 16-second period, but that ENE wind is gusting to 15 mph and it’s cross-off, so it’s a bit messy. The energy is ticking up (366), but it’s not the best. The afternoon is a wash with a risk of thunderstorms and only marginal conditions.

Now, Tuesday the 21st is where it starts to get interesting. The morning has 2.5ft of SW swell with a 15-second period, and we get a lovely offshore wind from the ENE. The energy is solid (539), and the wave comment says it all: expect very good surf. The afternoon gets even better – glassy conditions with a 2.5ft swell and a light NE breeze at 3 mph. That’s a standout window for sure.

Wednesday the 22nd is a mixed bag. The morning is clean but pretty ordinary with 2ft swell and weak energy (173). The afternoon glass-off again with 2ft swell and a bit more energy (285), so it’s worth a look if you’re flexible.

The 23rd and 24th are a bit of a lull. Thursday the 23rd has poor conditions in the morning and a short, weak 8-second period in the afternoon (51 energy). Friday the 24th, however, is a real tease. The morning has 2.5ft swell but a *very long* 24-second period and a massive jump in energy (967). That’s a lot of power, but with that period it’s going to be straight and fast at a river mouth – better for a point or reef. The wind is decent though, so it could be a session for the experienced.

Saturday the 25th is another standout. The morning has 3ft swell from the SW with a 21-second period, and the wind is light offshore from the ENE. Energy is pumping at 975. The afternoon is even better – glassy calm, 3ft swell, 20-second period, energy at 753. That’s a beautiful day for a smooth, clean surf.

Sunday the 26th rolls in with 3.5ft in the morning and a light offshore wind, energy at 938. The afternoon is a real gem: 4ft of swell, 18-second period, and glassy conditions. The energy hits 1007 – that’s strong wave energy – and the report says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. This is a top pick.

Monday the 27th has the biggest energy of the forecast so far. Morning sees 4ft swell with a 16-second period and a clean offshore E wind, energy at 1467. The afternoon is a little tricky with onshore wind, but the morning is a solid winner.

Now, for the second week, things get serious. Tuesday the 28th morning has 6ft of SW swell – that’s getting big, and it’s only for experts. The period is 17 seconds, and energy is a massive 1884. The wind is cross-off and light, so it’ll be clean but powerful. Wednesday the 29th holds at 5ft with similar energy, but the wind is good in the morning. Thursday the 30th is a bit smaller at 4.5ft, with cross-off winds and good energy (793-772).

Friday the 31st drops to 4ft, still with a decent 13-second period, and the morning is clean but a bit windy. The afternoon has a light offshore breeze. Saturday the 1st of August is a bit of a drop-off with 2ft swell, but the afternoon has a nice offshore wind. Sunday the 2nd picks up again to 3.5ft with a moderate offshore wind in the morning, energy at 648. Monday the 3rd finishes the run with 4ft, a 14-second period, and light cross-off winds.

Crowds: El Estero gets crowded often, so on the standout days – especially that glassy Saturday the 25th and Monday the 27th morning – expect company. But it’s worth it.

The best of the best: If I had to pick, I’d say Saturday the 25th afternoon (glassy, 3ft, 20-second period, 753 energy) and Monday the 27th morning (4ft, 16-second period, clean offshore, 1467 energy) are the true standouts. For the second week, Tuesday the 28th morning is a big, powerful session for the experts only.

Get out there and grab some.

Read more