El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on offer for the next couple of weeks at El Estero.

First thing to say is, it's a bit of a slow start. We've got a few days of small, average surf to get through, but don't let that fool you – there's a thumping run of swell coming in the second half of the window that's got me proper excited. The water's sitting at a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, around 86°, which is a nice bonus.

The weekend kicks off with a tiny, clean little wave. Saturday morning the 18th you've got a 2ft SSW swell, but it's a bit cross-off with an ENE breeze. The combined energy is weak (235). It's a marginal call, honestly. Sunday morning the 19th is even smaller at 2ft, not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st see a slight bump in size to a consistent 3ft from the SW, with a longer period around 15-16 seconds. The wind stays cross-off, so it's clean enough, but the wave energy is still moderate. It's surfable, but nothing to write home about.

We get a bit of a glass-off window on Thursday the 23rd morning with a 2ft SW swell and glassy conditions. The period is a short 12 seconds, so it'll be a bit fat and weak, but if you're desperate for a paddle, it's a chance.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Friday the 24th is the first real sign of life. The swell jumps to 3ft, but the period is a massive 24 seconds – that's a very long period groundswell. The energy is strong (941). The wind is a clean cross-off. This is a proper setup, but with that long period, it'll be breaking straight at the beach. Keep an eye on the river mouth.

The standout period is from Saturday the 25th right through to Wednesday the 30th. This is the best run of surf we've seen in a while. Saturday the 25th morning sees a 3ft SW swell with a 21-second period and clean cross-off winds. The energy is strong (931). Sunday the 26th morning is similar, with a 4ft SW swell, 19-second period, and light offshore winds from the east. The energy is very strong (876).

But the absolute best is Monday the 27th. The morning session is firing with a 5ft SW swell, 19-second period, and clean offshore ENE winds. The energy is pumping (1658). This is proper, excellent surf for experienced surfers. The afternoon is glassy with a 4ft swell – a perfect day. Tuesday the 28th morning is also a standout, with a 6ft SW swell, glassy conditions, and the energy is through the roof (1906). This is expert territory, big and powerful. Wednesday the 29th keeps the run going with 6ft SW swell and clean offshore winds.

After that, the swell slowly backs off into the first few days of August. Thursday the 1st of August morning has a 3ft SW swell, but it's a bit gusty. The river mouth is the call here, as that long period groundswell needs a defined bank to really line up. Don't expect a crowded peak, but it can get occasionally busy as word gets out.

The main takeaway is this: the first week is a write-off for anything serious, but from the 25th through the 29th, it's going to be pumping. Get your skis ready.

- Rusty

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