El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Rusty here, and I’m looking at what’s on the table for El Estero. This is a river mouth break that’s got a steady stream of SW swell coming in. The water is running a touch warmer than normal for the season, sitting at around 86°.

The first real chance to get wet is Saturday morning the 8th. We’ve got a clean 3ft SSW swell with a very long 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell, and it’s packing moderate energy. The sky is clear with a moderate ENE breeze, so it’s offshore and clean. The afternoon is even better. The swell bumps up to 3ft from the SW, still a long 15-second period, and the wind drops to a light ESE breeze. It’s going to be glassy. This is a solid start.

Sunday the 9th is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning has a fresh 18 mph ENE cross-offshore wind on a 3ft SW swell. It’s clean, but that wind is a bit strong. The afternoon eases up with a moderate ESE offshore breeze, and the swell holds at 3ft. It’s surfable, but not the pick.

Monday the 10th sees the swell drop a touch to 3ft, but the period is still a decent 13 seconds. The morning is let down by a cross-offshore breeze, but the afternoon is much better – a gentle E offshore wind and a 3ft SW swell. Clean conditions.

The standout window in this whole run is shaping up for Friday the 14th. The afternoon session is the one you want to be out for. We’ve got a 4ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period, and the combined energy is strong. The wind is a light ESE offshore breeze. That’s going to be clean, powerful, and lined up. For experienced surfers, this is the best of the bunch. The morning is also worth a look with a 4ft SW swell, 18 seconds, and a moderate NE cross-offshore breeze, but the afternoon is the clear winner.

We’ve got more swell on the way for Saturday the 15th, but it’s pushing into the 5ft range in the morning with a 18 mph NE cross-offshore wind. That’s getting a bit sizey and the wind is fresh. The afternoon is a touch smaller at 4ft with a cleaner offshore breeze. It’s still good, but not as clean as Friday.

The week after that settles into a pattern of fun, smaller waves. From Sunday the 16th through to Tuesday the 18th, we’re looking at 4ft to 4ft SW swells, with periods between 14 and 15 seconds. The mornings are generally cleaner with offshore or cross-offshore breezes. Tuesday afternoon the 18th is a special mention – the wind goes glassy, and the 4ft SW swell will be super clean.

The surf starts to fade from the 20th onwards. The swell drops to 3ft to 3ft, and the period starts to shorten. There are still some clean windows, like Friday morning the 21st with a 3ft SSW swell and a moderate offshore breeze, but the energy is weak. By the 22nd and 23rd, it’s small and ordinary.

So, the pick of the bunch is absolutely Friday the 14th afternoon. Get on that. If you miss it, the Saturday morning the 8th is a solid backup. The consistency is there, and the river mouth is known to be a bit of a magnet for this SW swell. It’s gonna be a good run.

Rusty.

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