El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Okay folks, Rusty here, with the long-range look for El Estero. We’ve got a solid window of surf on the way, but it’s not all going to be perfect. Let’s break it down day by day.

The water at El Estero is sitting at a balmy 86°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year.

We kick things off Friday afternoon, the 11th of September. It’s not huge, with a 4ft SW groundswell rolling in, but the wind is a light offshore from the east. That means clean, lined-up waves with a fair bit of energy behind them (632). This is a good start.

Saturday the 12th drops off a little. The swell eases to 3ft with a cross-offshore wind in the morning, making it look clean, but the energy is moderate (355). The afternoon turns choppy with a cross-onshore breeze, so that session is a write-off. Sunday the 13th is similar, with clean but weak 2ft surf in the morning, and that poor trend continues into the afternoon. You’ll be scratching for scraps.

Monday the 14th is a bit of a tease. The early session is clean and cross-off, with a 2ft swell, but the period is a very long 19 seconds. The wave energy is moderate (292). That long period stuff can make a beach-and-reef setup like this a bit straight and hard to predict. The afternoon is blown out anyway.

Now, here’s one of the standouts. Tuesday morning, the 15th of September. We’ve got a solid 3ft SW groundswell with a nice 15-second period, and the wind is a light cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is surging (514). It’s clean, it’s fun, and the conditions will be very good. If you can get out early, this is the one.

Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th mornings both offer clean, cross-off conditions with 3ft to 4ft swell and strong energy readings (668 and 530 respectively). The afternoons get messy, but the early bird catches the wave. By Friday the 18th, the swell backs off to 3ft, but the morning is clean and glassy with an offshore breeze (447). A solid session for a steady, consistent wave.

Saturday the 19th starts with a flat, glassy 2ft swell (394). It’s not big, but dead glassy conditions mean you won’t have to fight the wind. The highlight of the second week, however, is Monday the 21st. The morning brings a 4ft SW groundswell at 18 seconds with a clean offshore wind, and the wave energy is pumping (802). The afternoon turns glassy with a 3ft swell. This day looks very, very good. Tuesday the 22nd starts glassy and clean with 3ft swell, but the energy is seriously building (831). Be warned: by Tuesday afternoon the swell jumps to 8ft from the SSW. That's a big, powerful wave (1559) with a short 8-second period, and it’s an onshore wind. That’s expert-only territory, and it’ll be a washing machine. Too big and messy for a paddle, better suited for the kite crew.

From Wednesday the 23rd through to the end of the outlook on Saturday the 26th, the trend is for clean mornings with 2ft to 3ft of swell, with moderate to strong energy levels. The afternoons again get a cross-onshore bump. The final standout in this stretch is Saturday morning, the 26th. A 2ft swell with a very long 19-second period and a glassy, clean wind (572). It may be small, but it will be beautiful.

So, overall, the best windows are the mornings of the 15th, the 21st, and the 22nd. Pencil those in.

Rusty

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