El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming for El Estero.

We’ve got a solid stretch of surf ahead at this river mouth, exposed to a consistent SW groundswell. The water’s sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be fine in a spring suit or even just boardshorts if you’re used to it. The overall pattern is a slow drop from a moderate pulse early on, then a rebuild later in the window that looks like the real highlight.

Best action starts this Sunday, the 16th of August. Morning brings a clean 4ft SW swell with a very long 15-second period, proper groundswell energy and real push (combined energy of 677). Winds are cross-offshore from the NE at 12 mph, so the face will be tidy. It’s not huge, but it’s got enough grunt for a competent intermediate. Afternoon drops a bit to 4ft with the same long period, but the wind picks up to 19 mph from the ENE, still cross-off but with more push, so the morning is the smarter call.

Monday the 17th offers a smaller morning at 4ft with that same 14-second period. Winds are light from the NE at just 3 mph, keeping it clean. A smaller, more mellow day but still very surfable. Afternoon sees a cross-shore SSW breeze at 9 mph, which will put a little ripple on the surface but nothing too bad.

Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th continue the trend of 3ft to 3ft SW swell with periods around 14 to 15 seconds. Winds are light and offshore or cross-offshore, so clean conditions. Tuesday afternoon even sees a glass-off risk of thunderstorms, so keep an eye out.

From Thursday the 20th into Friday the 21st, the swell drops to 2ft to 2ft, and the period shortens to 13 seconds. Thursday morning is still clean with an offshore breeze, but afternoon turns poor. Friday morning sees a brief bump back to 4ft from the SSW with an 11-second period and light ENE winds – clean and punchy for its size.

Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are small again, with 2ft to 2ft, but Sunday afternoon shows a period jump to 18 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell for such a small height, meaning long waits between sets but what comes through will have real shape. At a river mouth, that kind of energy can line up nicely.

Monday the 24th through Wednesday the 26th remain small, around 2ft to 2ft, with periods dropping from 18 seconds back to 15. Winds are moderate but mostly cross-offshore, keeping things clean. Not going to blow your mind, but still something to ride.

Now here’s the standout window: Friday the 28th of August through Sunday the 30th. Friday morning shows a solid 3ft SW swell with a 16-second period and combined energy of 532 – moderate but excellent shape. Winds are light from the ESE at 3 mph, near glassy, and clean. That’s a serious morning session for the size.

Saturday the 29th is the pick of the bunch. Morning has 4ft from the SW with a 15-second period, light ENE winds at 6 mph, clean and well-shaped. But the afternoon is the real gem: 4ft SW swell with a 16-second period and combined energy of 901 – moderate to strong energy, proper groundswell. Winds go glassy from the east at just 3 mph. That is about as good as it gets for El Estero. Not huge, but the quality will be excellent.

Sunday the 30th follows up with a similar 4ft SW swell, 15-second period, and light offshore winds in the morning, then glassy again in the afternoon. Another day of clean, lined-up waves.

Monday the 31st drops back to 3ft with a 14-second period and offshore winds in the morning, but afternoon turns poor with a cross-onshore breeze.

Crowds at El Estero are often an issue, so expect company, especially on the good days. It’s a consistent spot that rarely lets you down, but it does get busy.

So, if I’m calling it: the afternoon of Saturday the 29th of August is the absolute standout – glassy, 4ft of long-period SW groundswell, and plenty of energy. Friday the 28th morning and Sunday the 30th are also excellent backups. Don’t sleep on that weekend.

Rusty.

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