El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right on, this is Rusty, checkin’ in from the coast.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start here, but once the swell kicks in, it’s gonna be a proper run of waves. The first few days are a bit marginal, but it builds into a solid week of surf, with a couple of real standout sessions.

Alright, let’s start with the spot. I’m looking at El Estero, a river mouth setup that’s exposed to the west-northwest. The water temp is runnin’ a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sittin’ around 86°, so it’s a nice, comfortable bath.

Sunday the 19th is a write-off. Small, weak swell at 2 feet from the SW, and the wind is a cross-off, but the energy is low (241). Not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 20th is where it starts to get interesting. The swell picks up to 3 feet from the SW, and the wind goes clean offshore from the east at 12 mph. The combined energy jumps to 366 in the morning and 397 in the afternoon. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and rideable. A good one for the log or a fun mid-length.

Tuesday the 21st has a bit of a split personality. The morning is a cross-off with 3 feet swell (301 energy), but the afternoon turns glassy with a light S wind and 3 feet swell (293 energy). That glassy session could be a nice little window of clean waves.

Wednesday the 22nd through Thursday the 23rd are a mixed bag. The morning of the 22nd is poor, but the afternoon sees offshore wind and 2 feet swell. The 23rd morning is poor again, but the afternoon of the 23rd has a sneaky 1 feet swell with a very long period of 26 seconds and 327 energy. That’s a groundswell pulse, but with such a small height, it’s gonna be a ripple.

Now, here’s the good stuff. Friday the 24th is a real standout. The morning has 3 feet swell from the SW with a super long period of 24 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 797. The wind is light and cross-off from the NE. This is a clean, long-period groundswell that will wrap in nicely. The afternoon is also clean with offshore wind.

Saturday the 25th is even better. Morning sees 3 feet swell with a 21-second period and 807 energy. Offshore wind from the ENE. The afternoon is just about perfect – glassy, with a light SW wind, 3 feet swell, and 703 energy. This is the best of the first week.

Sunday the 26th keeps the run goin’. Morning has 4 feet swell with 19-second period and 967 energy, with a gentle offshore breeze. The afternoon gets a bit bigger, 5 feet from the SW with 18-second period, and the energy jumps to 1227. The wind is light and cross-off. This is expert territory, but it’s gonna be a serious session.

Monday the 27th is solid, with 3 feet swell in the morning (1457 energy), but the afternoon gets a cross-on wind, so it’s a bit tricky.

Tuesday the 28th is a beast. The morning has 6 feet swell from the SW with an 18-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 2067. The wind is a clean cross-off. This is big, powerful, and for experienced surfers only. The afternoon gets messy with cross-on wind.

Wednesday the 29th is still solid, with 5 feet swell in the morning and clean offshore wind (1324 energy). The afternoon gets onshore, so the morning is your window.

Thursday the 30th is a nice, clean finish. Morning has 4 feet swell with a 14-second period, clean cross-off wind, and 700 energy. The afternoon turns glassy with 4 feet swell and 678 energy. A perfect end to the run.

After that, the swell fades through the end of the month and into early August. Friday the 31st and into the first week of August is small, with drops to 2 feet. There’s a few clean windows on the 1st and 2nd of August with offshore wind, but the energy is low.

So, the takeaway: The standout is Saturday the 25th – glassy, clean, and a solid 3 feet SW groundswell. That’s your best bet. If you want bigger, Tuesday the 28th morning is for the big-wave crew only. The gap after the 30th is a few days of small, marginal surf, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

Rusty.

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