El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the stretch ahead. It’s a bit of a slow burner to start, but there are some proper moments hiding in the back half of this forecast, especially if you can wait it out.

The first few days are pretty quiet. We're looking at clean but underwhelming conditions for the Saturday morning, with a light cross-offshore breeze. The swell is small, around 3ft, and the energy in the water is moderate at best (370). It's surfable, but you won't be skipping work for it. That afternoon the wind swings onshore, and things get messy. Sunday and Monday follow a similar pattern – small waist-high waves, cleanest in the mornings, but nothing that'll get the heart racing. The water's running warm, about 86°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you don't need a thick suit.

The middle of the week picks up a bit. By Wednesday the 16th, the swell pushes to 4ft with a better period, and the morning offshore flow is going to keep it clean. This is where we start to see some actual potential. Thursday and Friday mornings also look good – glassy or light cross-off winds, with the swell holding around 3ft. The energy is building, moving into the moderate range (530-741). It's still not huge, but it's clean, and El Estero (El-Estero) handles that kind of swell nicely.

Then comes the standout. Skip ahead to Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st. Early on Sunday, it's dead glassy with a 3ft SW swell at 19 seconds. That's a proper long-period groundswell, and the energy is jumping (728). It's going to be clean and lined up. But Monday morning is the pick of the whole run for me. The wind goes completely calm, the swell pushes up to 4ft, still from the SW at 18 seconds, and the energy is the strongest we've seen (754). This is the one. If you can get a session in on Monday morning, that's your window. The river mouth should be handling that kind of long-period energy better than a beach break, too.

After that, there's a bit of a lull through Tuesday, keeping the surf small and a bit jumbled. But don't switch off. By Wednesday the 23rd, the ocean wakes up. We've got a 7ft SW swell coming in, with a shorter 9-second period. The power is there, strong energy (1021), but that short period and size make it a different beast. This is one for experienced surfers only – it's going to be a proper push, powerful and a bit raw. The morning starts clean with a light offshore, but it's serious out there. After that, the swell backs off a little for Thursday.

Then, to close out the forecast, Friday the 25th and Saturday the 26th bring another pulse. Friday morning looks clean with 6ft from the SSW, and the afternoon stays good too. Saturday morning bumps it up to 7ft again, but the wind starts to get a bit more cross-shore as the day wears on. Keep an eye on Sunday the 27th – the swell drops right back down, but it's glassy again to finish.

So, yeah. There's a fair bit of waiting around, but Monday the 21st is the clear winner for clean, quality surf. For the bigger, more powerful stuff, that Wednesday the 23rd is the one for the crew who know what they're doing. Just remember, the long-range stuff is promising, but we'll know more as it gets closer.

Rusty.

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