El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, breaking down the next couple of weeks. It’s a waiting game at first, but there are some real gems if you’re patient.

The first week is mostly small and clean. The best early session is Wednesday morning, July 15th, at El Estero. We’ve got a clean 2ft swell from the SSW, with a 13-second period that gives it some punch. The wind is offshore from the ENE, making the faces glassy. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 86°F, and the combined swell energy is a moderate 453. It’s small, but it’s fun.

The afternoon of the 15th turns glassy with a 2ft SW swell (16-second period, 418 energy), but it’s a drop-off. Thursday the 16th, Friday the 17th, and Saturday the 18th are all marginal or poor, with cross-offshore winds and smaller swell. The energy drops into the weak range. Thursday afternoon shows a 3ft swell, but it’s still a marginal call.

Sunday, July 19th morning brings a clean 3ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, offshore wind from the ENE, and the energy jumps to 456 (moderate). The afternoon stays clean. Monday the 20th has a 3ft SW swell, but the period jumps to 16 seconds, which is a long-period groundswell. The morning energy is 392, and the afternoon is 642 (moderate). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, keeping it clean, but the conditions are still considered marginal. Tuesday the 21st is a washout.

Now, here’s the big one. After a lull, Friday, July 24th morning is a standout. The swell is only 2ft, but the period is a massive 24 seconds – that’s very long-period groundswell. The combined energy is a strong 617. This is a river mouth, so that long period will wrap in perfectly. The wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze, keeping it clean. The sets will be spaced out, but the waves you get will be absolute gems. For experienced surfers, this is the one.

The weekend of the 25th and 26th keeps the energy up. Saturday the 25th has a 3ft SW swell with a 21-second period, and the energy is a huge 890 (strong). The afternoon turns glassy with a risk of thunderstorms. Sunday the 26th is even better – 4ft SW swell, 19-second period, and the energy is 775 (moderate-strong). The afternoon goes glassy, with a light offshore wind. This is quality.

The following week, Monday, July 27th, through Wednesday, July 29th, sees the swell building to 4ft. The standout is Tuesday morning, July 28th. We’ve got 4ft of SW swell with a 17-second period, a clean offshore wind from the ENE, and the energy is a massive 1054 (strong to very strong). The report says it’s excellent for experienced surfers, and that’s no joke. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-onshore breeze, so the morning is the call.

The last couple of days, July 29th and 30th, the swell drops back to 4ft with a 16-second period, and the energy is still solid (700-800 range). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, keeping it clean. The conditions are considered marginal, but it’s still surfable.

So, the real standouts? Friday, July 24th morning for the crazy long-period groundswell, and Tuesday, July 28th morning for the size and power. That Tuesday session is for the big dogs. The rest is a lot of waiting for the good windows, but when they hit, they hit.

Rusty.

Read more