El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the stretch ahead. The long-range picture is looking a bit soft and small for the most part, but we’ve got a couple of windows where things line up pretty nicely. The start of the period is going to be a bit of a letdown, so don’t get too excited about the early sessions. There’s a distinct drop-off in size before things pick back up with some cleaner, more promising conditions later.

The first standout for me is El Estero (El-Estero) on the morning of Saturday, the 29th of August. It’s over a week out, so we keep our fingers crossed, but the models are showing a promising pulse. We’re looking at a solid 3.3ft of SW swell with a good 15-second period, and the wind is a gentle offshore from the NE. The water is a warm 85.6°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, something you’ll feel right away. The energy is moderate at 681, which isn't huge, but the clean conditions and the long-period swell are what make it special. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

Before that, there’s a gray period. The first week is filled with small, junky surf. The swell is mostly there in the 3ft to 4ft range, but it’s inconsistent and often muddied by onshore breezes and stormy afternoons. The mornings offer some cleaner looks, but the waves lack any real push. The 15th and 16th of August are particularly poor, with cross-off winds and weak, short-period swell. The worst stretch is from the 21st through the 24th, where the swell drops out almost completely.

Now, the second standout is Wednesday morning, the 30th of August. The swell has dropped slightly to 3ft, but it's still from the SW with a long 15-second period. The wind goes dead light and offshore from the E, promising truly glassy conditions. The energy is again moderate at 643. It won’t have the size of the day before, but with conditions that clean, it could be the best quality of the whole run.

There are a few other mornings like the 19th and 21st that have clean offshore winds, but the waves are small and weak. The long-period swells are worth noting at the river mouth, as they’ll be more organized than a beach break, but with the lack of size early on, it's not a whole lot to work with.

If you’re a beginner, the 3ft to 4ft waves in the first part are fine, but nothing over 5ft. For the experts, the bigger pulses near the end will be more interesting. The real story here is the last few days, where the combination of long-period groundswell and offshore winds at El Estero should deliver the cleanest, best-shaped waves of the entire forecast.

Read more