El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next sixteen days for our local spot.

We’re looking at a solid run of south-west groundswell for El Estero, with the most exciting window arriving this weekend. That long-period energy (18 seconds) on Friday the 14th is a real treat, pushing in with a combined energy of 901 (moderate). The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no need to stress about thermals. Friday morning is clean with a cross-offshore breeze, but the real standout is Saturday morning the 15th. We’ve got a clean 5ft swell from the south-west, with a fresh cross-offshore wind, and the energy is pumping at 1118 (moderate). This is the pick of the first week – solid, clean, and from the right direction for this river mouth. The long period (16 seconds) means it’ll be a bit more lined up, but it’s a river break so it should handle it well. Crowds are likely here, so get in early.

Sunday the 16th sees the swell ease a touch to 4ft, still clean on the morning with a gentle breeze, but the energy drops to 677 (moderate). Monday the 17th is a beauty for the glassy conditions – a 4ft, 14-second swell with a glassy afternoon, energy at 500 (moderate). That’s a real sneaky session. Tuesday the 18th holds clean 4ft waves in the morning, but the afternoon turns onshore and messy. From Wednesday the 19th, the size drops below 3ft, and we get a few days of small, clean glassy mornings with light wind, but the energy is low (357 to 303). Showers and storms threaten the afternoons.

There’s a notable gap of smaller surf from around the 21st through to the 23rd, with waves only 2ft to 2ft. The energy is very weak (143 to 215). The surf quality is ordinary, though there are some clean windows in the mornings. By Sunday the 23rd, a new pulse of very long-period swell (19 seconds) arrives, with 2ft waves but a combined energy of 333 (moderate). That’s a promising sign for the start of the following week. Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th both have clean mornings with 2ft and 2ft waves, and the energy is building back up (326 to 339). The real dark horse is Thursday the 27th – a clean 2ft, 18-second groundswell with light offshore wind, energy at 205 (moderate). That could be a fun little glassy session if you’re not greedy.

The final weekend, the 28th and 29th, shows a bump back up to 3ft – 4ft, with clean conditions on the mornings, but the wind is a moderate cross-offshore, and the energy is moderate (490 to 543). It’s not the standout of the first weekend, but it’s a solid finish to the outlook.

Overall, the best on offer is Saturday morning the 15th for the cleanest, punchiest swell. Not far behind is Monday the 17th for glassy conditions. The long-range stuff around the 23rd and 27th is promising but less certain. Keep an eye on the morning windows, because the aftertons get messy with storms and onshore breezes.

Rusty.

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