El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the waves coming our way.

The run starts on Wednesday, July 29, and we’ve got waves rolling in without any big gaps for the whole 16 days. It starts strong, fades a bit mid-week, then builds back up for some fine sessions into early August.

Wednesday, July 29 is your best day. Hit up El Estero. It’s a consistent river mouth, open to the WNW. You’ve got a solid 5ft swell from the SW, with a 16-second groundswell – that’s real energy. The combined energy is 1232, so there’s plenty of punch. The water’s 86°, which is a touch warmer than usual. A light cross-offshore breeze from the NE will keep the faces clean. This is excellent for experienced surfers only; 5ft with that period is no joke. Expect a crowd, as it’s "often" busy. Wednesday afternoon is even better – glassy conditions with a 3 mph westerly. The swell holds at 5ft, energy at 1149, still strong. That afternoon session is the absolute pick of the whole forecast for clean, powerful waves.

Thursday, July 30 – morning is still very good. A clean 4ft SW groundswell, 14-second period, with a moderate offshore from the ENE at 16 mph. Combined energy is moderate at 675. Afternoon turns cross-offshore with an ESE breeze, still 4ft and clean.

Friday, July 31 – morning offers a last good go. Clean 3ft SW swell, 14-second period, gentle offshore from the ENE. Combined energy is moderate at 382. By afternoon, a cross-onshore wind from the SW ruins it – poor conditions, so paddle early.

From Saturday, August 1 through Monday, August 3, the size drops to 2–3ft. Mornings are mostly clean, but energy is weak to moderate (212–307). The best of these is Saturday afternoon – 3ft, glassy offshore wind, clean. Good for beginners. Afternoons on Sunday and Monday get choppy.

Tuesday, August 4 – morning has a small 3ft swell, but the period is a short 7 seconds, so it’ll be weak and disorganised. Still, with a clean offshore wind, it’s surfable on small gear.

Wednesday, August 5 to Thursday, August 6 – the swell bottoms out at 1–2ft. Very weak energy (83–127). A few glassy bits, but it’s ordinary. Not worth the drive.

Friday, August 7 – a new long-period groundswell arrives: 2–3ft from the SSW, but with an amazing 18-second period in the morning. Combined energy jumps to 375 (moderate). A moderate offshore from the ENE keeps it clean. Then Friday afternoon goes glassy with a 17-second period and energy of 540 – very good conditions for the size.

Saturday, August 8 – size picks up to 3–3ft. A moderate cross-offshore from the NE, but the afternoon gets a bit messy. Energy is moderate (580–599). Surfable, but not a standout.

Sunday, August 9 – morning is poor with strong cross-offshore winds despite 3ft. Afternoon is much better – glassy offshore, clean waves, energy at 386.

Monday, August 10 – morning is poor with strong winds. Afternoon has an odd 2ft swell with a 21-second period (best for points and reefs). Energy is moderate at 520, but the cross-offshore wind makes it marginal.

Tuesday, August 11 morning is another real highlight. Clean 3ft SW groundswell with a 20-second period – that’s proper ground energy. Moderate offshore from the E, combined energy of 674, and very good conditions. Perfect for longboards and clean, lined-up walls.

Wednesday, August 12 and Thursday, August 13 keep the run going with 3–4ft swells, 16- to 17-second periods, and clean windows in the morning. Energy is moderate to strong (553–567). Great for mid-lengths and logs.

Thursday, August 13 afternoon gets cross-onshore from the SW, so morning is the call.

Best surf of the whole window is Wednesday, July 29 afternoon – glassy, solid 5ft, groundswell, perfect. Second pick is Tuesday, August 11 morning for that long-period, lined-up goodness. With that 20-second period, sets will be spaced out but well-shaped – worth the wait.

Rusty.

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