El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break down what’s coming for El Estero over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a decent run of surf coming, but it’s a bit of a slow build. The water is sitting at a warm 85.6°, and that’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can leave the wetsuit at home.

The first real action kicks off Saturday morning, July 25th. It’s a small start with a 3ft swell from the SW, but the period is a very long 21 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is moderate at 905. With a light ENE cross-off breeze, it’s going to be clean. This is a river mouth, so that long period stuff might not be as punchy as it would be on a reef, but it’ll be fun. The real standout is Sunday morning, July 26th. The swell bumps up to 3.6ft, still from the SW, with a 19-second period and moderate energy (978). The wind is a clean offshore from the ENE at 12 mph. That’s the pick of the first week – clean, lined-up waves for the intermediate crew.

Monday, July 27th, holds steady with 3.6ft SW swell and clean conditions, but the wind is a bit lighter. Tuesday, July 28th, the swell jumps to 5.6ft with a 17-18 second period, and the combined energy is pumping at 1766 (strong). Tuesday morning looks excellent with offshore ENE wind, but that’s getting into the territory where beginners might find it a bit much. Wednesday, July 29th, holds similar size at 5.2ft with a shorter 16-second period, but the morning offshore from the E at 3 mph keeps it clean.

After that, there’s a steady drop-off. Thursday, July 30th, has 4.3ft, and by Friday, July 31st, we’re back to 3.3ft. The winds get a bit mixed after Wednesday. The second week, from August 1st onwards, is pretty slim pickings. The swell drops to 2ft to 3ft, and the energy falls into the weak to low-moderate range (50 to 284). The standout in that second week is a tiny window on Saturday, August 8th, afternoon. The swell is only 2ft from the SSW, but the period is a solid 16 seconds, and the wind goes glassy from the NW. That’s a rare moment of flat, clean conditions for a longboard or a foiler. The rest of that week is mostly small, choppy, or blown out, with a few pockets of clean offshore wind but barely any swell.

Overall, the best bet is Sunday morning, July 26th, for the best combination of size, clean offshore wind, and that long-period quality. The second week is a big gap of mostly poor or marginal conditions, with only that brief glassy moment on August 8th worth a mention.

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