El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it’s Rusty again. Let’s talk the same forecast in feet and miles.

The water is sitting at 86°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. You’ll be fine in a short john or just a rash guard.

We start off on Thursday morning, July 9th. It’s small, with 3ft of SW groundswell, but the wind is a clean cross-off from the NE at 9 mph. The sets are long between them with that 15-second period, so it’s easy paddling, but it’s not pumping. Wave energy is moderate (544). Thursday afternoon looks better with a light offshore ESE breeze at 3 mph, the swell drops to 3ft from the SSW. Clean, but small.

Friday the 10th is a write-off in the morning – wind howling from the ENE at 16 mph, messing it up. The afternoon settles with a light SE cross-off at 6 mph, and the same 3ft SSW swell. Rideable, but nothing special.

Saturday the 11th is the first real standout. The morning is *glassy* – totally flat calm – with a SE breeze at just 3 mph, and we’ve got 3ft of SSW groundswell. The period is a long 15 seconds, so those waves have some push, and with the glass, El Estero will be clean and fun. The energy is moderate (372). Expect crowds, so get down early. Saturday afternoon swings onshore from the W, so that window is short.

Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th stay small, 2ft to 3ft, with clean cross-off winds. The energy drops off through Monday. Tuesday the 14th has a glassy afternoon with a quick jump in energy (499), but it’s still only 2ft. The whole first week is a pattern of small, clean, but inconsistent surf.

The middle of the second week, Thursday the 16th, the morning is clean with 2ft, but the afternoon gets a bit lumpy with a cross-onshore. Friday the 17th to Sunday the 19th is more of the same – small, clean mornings, but the wind picks up. Nothing big.

Now, the real standout. On Friday, July 24th, a solid 5ft of SSW groundswell arrives, with a period of 12 seconds. The wave energy jumps to 772 – that’s strong, solid energy. The wind is a light ESE cross-off at 6 mph in the morning, making for clean conditions. This is the best swell of the whole period. The size is good for intermediates, but it’s not too big for a confident beginner. The afternoon goes onshore from the WSW, so the morning session is the window. This is the one to circle.

Before that, Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st have a little pulse of 2ft to 3ft with long 16-17 second periods, and clean offshore winds. It’s small, but those long-period waves will have shape at El Estero (river mouth). Wednesday the 22nd is clean again in the morning with a moderate offshore.

Thursday the 23rd is a bit of a mess with a short-period 3ft swell and cross-shore wind, so skip it. Then Friday the 24th delivers.

Overall, the first week is a slow grind of small, clean waves, but the glassy Saturday morning (July 11th) is the best of the first week. The big winner is the Friday morning, July 24th, with that 5ft swell and clean wind. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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