El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mate, Rusty here. Let’s break down the El Estero surf outlook for the next couple of weeks. It’s a slow burn to start, but there’s some real quality if you can wait it out.

The first few days are underwhelming. There’s some energy around with combined swell numbers in the 340 to 375 range (moderate wave energy), but the wind is mostly cross-off or onshore, keeping things messy. The water’s sitting at a balmy 86°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year.

Things start to turn the corner on Friday the 14th. Friday afternoon shows a nice 4ft swell from the SW, with a solid 18-second period. That’s proper groundswell. Combined energy jumps to 1028 (strong wave energy) and the wind is light cross-off. Conditions look excellent for experienced surfers. The river mouth setup at El Estero should handle that long-period energy better than a standard beach break.

Saturday the 15th keeps the run going. Morning has 5ft of SW swell with 1118 combined energy, and while the wind is cross-off, the afternoon sees it clock fully offshore from the ENE. Clean, moderate offshore wind, 4ft of clean swell. That’s a proper window.

Sunday the 16th morning is the real gem. You’ve got 4ft of SW swell, and the wind is *glass* from the east. That’s as clean as it gets. Combined energy is 678 (moderate to strong). If you can get out there Sunday morning, that’s the pick of the whole forecast. The river mouth should be serving up some well-shaped waves.

After that, the second week sees smaller but still rideable waves. A few good windows on Monday 18th afternoon (light wind, clean) and Wednesday 19th morning (gentle offshore, 3ft swell, 617 energy). The second week is more hit and miss, with some glassy afternoons but smaller surf. By Friday 22nd and Saturday 23rd, the swell period jumps to 21 seconds, but the heights are tiny (2ft to 2ft). That’s very long-period energy, but not enough size to get excited about unless the river mouth lines it up perfectly.

The crowds at El Estero are often around, so don’t expect a quiet session, but on those standout days it’ll be worth the company.

Overall, the best surf of the whole 16 days is Sunday the 16th morning. Glassy, chest-to-shoulder high swell from the SW, perfect river mouth conditions. Friday the 14th afternoon and Saturday the 15th afternoon are also excellent. After that, it fades but stays surfable.

Rusty.

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