El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, let’s break down the next couple of weeks for El Estero.

Right off the bat, it’s not going to be a barnstormer of a period. The surf is on the small side for the first week, with the energy steadily building. Most of the serious action is tucked away in the second week, so patience is the name of the game.

We start off Sunday the 13th with a 2ft SW swell. It’s there, but honestly, with a cross-off breeze, the conditions are pretty ordinary. You’d be fighting it for scraps. Monday the 14th is a bit cleaner with the same 2ft SW swell, but the period jumps up to 19 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, but it won’t have much push behind it yet. The combined energy is moderate at 292. Tuesday the 15th is much the same, small and marginal. The energy is climbing but the conditions aren't gelling.

The real shift starts on Wednesday the 16th. We get a 4ft SW swell with 16-second period and light offshore winds from the east. The energy is building strong at 866. This is the first solid window, and it should be clean, well-shaped, and worth a paddle. Thursday the 17th morning is similar but a touch smaller, still good.

Friday the 18th drops back a bit, but Saturday the 19th is a beauty for the morning – glassy conditions, no wind at all, with a 2ft, 19-second SW groundswell. That combo of glass and long-period swell is a real treat for a river mouth like this, making for clean, lined-up waves. The energy is moderate at 393, so don't expect a lot of power, but the quality will be there.

Sunday the 20th is another standout morning: 3ft SW at 19 seconds with light offshore easterlies and the energy jumping into strong territory at 735. That’s a cracker of a Sunday session. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd keep the energy high, with the Tuesday morning offering glassy conditions again. The wave height stays around 3ft to 4ft, perfect for the river mouth.

Then we hit the big stuff. On Saturday the 26th, the swell goes nuclear. We’re talking 15ft SSW at 10 seconds with glassy winds in the morning. The combined energy is a massive 3962. This is expert-only territory. That river mouth is going to be a washing machine. Definitely not for the faint of heart or anyone on a foamie. Sunday the 27th calms down a bit with a 8ft WSW swell and offshore cross-off winds in the morning, energy still at a strong 1310. This is a session for experienced surfers who know the setup. After that, Monday the 28th drops back to manageable 3ft SW.

Best on Offer:
Without a doubt, Sunday the 20th is the standout of the whole run. A 3ft SW groundswell at 19 seconds, light offshore wind from the east, and strong energy (735). That’s clean, lined up, and with manageable crowds – an absolute classic El Estero morning.
The runner-up is Saturday the 19th morning for the glassy conditions – no wind and a long 2ft pulse. If you want silky, peelers, that’s your window.

Stay tuned, and keep an eye on that last week – it could get wild.

Rusty.

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