El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checking in on your local spot.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a wait on our hands. The forecast is starting with a gap, as there's nothing really happening just yet for the next few days. Things are set to kick off on Monday, July 6th at El Estero.

This is a river mouth break, and it’s pretty consistent, so it’s got that going for it. The water is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, sitting around 86°.

Monday morning we see some small swell starting to fill in, 2 ft from the SW with a super long period of 20 seconds. That's proper groundswell energy, and with moderate energy in the water (770), it’s a promising start. The wind is offshore from the ENE at 12 mph, which will keep things clean. It’s a good sign, but the size is small.

The real standout, the one to circle on your calendar, is Tuesday, July 7th. The morning starts clean again with that ENE offshore breeze, and the swell picks up to a solid 4 ft from the SW. The period is still a very long 18 seconds, and the energy is pumping at (1126). This is excellent surf for those with a bit of experience. Then, get this – Tuesday afternoon is an absolute gem. The wind goes dead calm, glassy, from the WNW at 0 mph. The swell bumps up to 5 ft from the SW, still with that lovely 18-second period and strong energy (1263). That’s the best of the whole run right there. Glassy conditions with a solid, long-period SW groundswell.

Wednesday morning the swell holds at 5 ft, but the wind goes cross-offshore, which isn’t as perfect as the previous day. The period drops a touch to 16 seconds, and the energy dips a bit (940). Wednesday afternoon we’re back to glassy conditions from the SW, with a smaller but still fun 4 ft swell.

From Thursday, July 9th onwards, things start to taper off. The swell drops below the 3 ft mark, and we get a lot of funky weather with risk of thunderstorms and onshore winds spoiling the shape. There are some cleaner windows, like Saturday morning, July 11th with a light offshore, but the swell is only 3 ft. Sunday, July 12th afternoon gets glassy again, with a 3 ft swell, which is worth a look for a longboard.

After that, the swell gets pretty small for a stretch. There’s a gap with really marginal surf until we get a bit of a pulse on Sunday, July 19th afternoon with 3 ft, but the wind is messy. The very end of the run, Monday morning, July 20th, shows a solid offshore wind again from the ENE with 3 ft swell, but it’s a long way out.

So, to sum it up: The whole first week is the main event. The absolute best is Tuesday afternoon, July 7th. That glassy 5 ft SW groundswell is the session to aim for. Tuesday morning is also a cracker. Wednesday has good size but slightly less perfect wind. The second week is much quieter, with only small, clean windows for the patient surfer. The crowd factor at El Estero is "often," so expect company when it's good.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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