El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about the surf. It’s been quiet, but it’s building. The water is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – feels like a warm bath out there.

The first real push won’t be until Monday the 20th, but it’s small. Monday morning brings a 3ft SW swell with a 16-second period, and the wind is cross-off from the ENE at 12 mph. The energy is moderate (366), but it’s a bit marginal. Monday afternoon cleans up nicely with the wind dropping to 9 mph and going offshore, same 3ft SW swell. It’s rideable but not firing.

Tuesday the 21st is more of the same: 3ft SW swell, 15-second period, offshore ENE breeze at 9 mph in the morning, easing to 6 mph in the afternoon. The energy is moderate (301). It’s clean, but still small. Wednesday the 22nd drops a little – 2ft SW swell, 13-second period, and the wind is light. The energy is weak (180). Just ordinary.

Thursday the 23rd is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning has a 4ft SSW swell, but it’s short period at 7 seconds and the wind is a moderate cross-off from the NE. The energy is moderate (225), but it’s messy. The afternoon drops to 2ft with a 13-second period and light offshore wind – not much to get excited about.

Now, Friday the 24th is where things start to look interesting. The morning brings a 2ft SW swell, but listen to this – the period is 24 seconds. That’s very long period groundswell. The energy is strong (715). The wind is light cross-off from the NE. This is a quality swell, but that long period can make it break a bit straight at the beach – it’ll be better on the point or the river mouth. The afternoon fades to junk with a 2ft, 8-second swell and only 69 energy. Don’t bother with the afternoon.

Saturday the 25th is a solid day. The afternoon is the standout: 3ft SW swell, 20-second period, and the energy is strong (676). The wind is a light cross-off from the NNE. This is a really good looking session. The morning is similar but with a 21-second period and 798 energy – also strong. Just be aware that long period swells like this can be a bit tricky at the beach.

Sunday the 26th is the first real highlight. The afternoon session is excellent: 4ft SW swell, 18-second period, light offshore breeze from the ENE, and the energy is very strong (1054). This is for experienced surfers – the size is getting up there. The morning is also very good with a 4ft SW swell, 19-second period, and 920 energy. Clean conditions.

The standout of the whole run is Monday the 27th. Morning session: 4ft SW swell, 16-second period, gentle offshore ENE wind, and the energy is huge (1444). This is proper. The afternoon gets a bit cross with a southerly breeze, so get out early.

Tuesday the 28th is solid but on the bigger side. The afternoon has 6ft SW swell, 17-second period, cross-off NE wind at 12 mph, and the energy is massive (1783). This is expert-only territory. The morning is 5ft with a 19-second period, but the wind is light cross – still good, but be careful.

Wednesday the 29th morning is glassy. 5ft SW swell, 16-second period, and the wind is dead calm. The energy is very strong (1312). This is a dream session for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets a cross-on breeze, so not as clean.

Thursday the 30th morning is also glassy, with a 5ft SW swell, 14-second period, and 783 energy. Very good conditions. The afternoon is onshore and messy.

From Friday the 31st onwards, the swell starts to drop. The morning of the 31st is 4ft SW swell, 14-second period, with light cross-off wind – it’s good, but not as powerful. The weekend of the 1st and 2nd of August is smaller, around 3ft to 3ft, with light offshore winds. Clean, but small. The first week of August sees the energy fade to weak levels, with the last decent session being Monday the 3rd afternoon with a 2ft, 13-second period and light offshore wind. After that, it’s very ordinary.

So, to wrap it up: the best on offer is Monday the 27th morning at El Estero (4ft, 24-second period SW, offshore ENE breeze, 1444 energy). Close second is Sunday the 26th afternoon. Everything else is either small, messy, or for experts only. The crowds at El Estero are often there, so expect company.

Rusty.

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