El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for El Estero.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a bit of a bonus, so you won’t need a thick suit.

Right now, we’re in a bit of a flat spell. The first few days are looking pretty average. Thursday the 16th has some small 2ft SW swell, but the wind is a cross-off and the wave energy is weak (263). It’s not really worth paddling out for. The afternoon cleans up a bit with a 3ft SSW swell and offshore wind, but the energy is still moderate (374). It’s just okay.

Friday the 17th through to Wednesday the 23rd is a real grind. The swell hangs around 1ft to 3ft, mostly from the SW, with cross-off winds. The wave energy stays in the moderate range (from 142 to 449), but the comments are all “poor” or “marginal.” There’s nothing to get excited about. It’s a long stretch of flat, average conditions.

Now, hang in there, because the real standout window opens up on Thursday the 24th of July. The morning session is the pick of the whole outlook. You’ve got a solid 3ft SW groundswell, but the period is a very long 24 seconds. That means proper energy (809) and long, clean lines. The wind is offshore from the East, so it’ll be clean. This is a prime day for a river mouth break like El Estero, as that long-period swell will wrap in nicely. The afternoon gets ruined by an onshore wind, so get in early.

The run continues strong. Saturday the 25th morning is glassy, with a 3ft SW swell and a 21-second period. The energy is strong (784), and it’s looking smooth. Then Sunday the 26th morning is a big one – 4ft SW swell, with very strong energy (1195). The wind is light and cross-off, making it clean. This is excellent for experienced surfers. Monday the 27th morning is also excellent, with a 5ft SW swell and strong energy (1370). The wind is light cross-off.

Tuesday the 28th morning is the biggest of the run, with a 5ft SW swell and very strong energy (1828). The wind is glassy, so it will be perfect. But this size is for experts only – it’s too big for beginners. The conditions hold through Wednesday the 29th morning, with a 4ft SW swell and strong energy (1031), still clean.

The best of the best? I’d be circling Thursday the 24th morning for the quality of the long-period groundswell with offshore wind, and Tuesday the 28th morning for the biggest, cleanest, glassy conditions. Both are absolute standouts.

After that, the swell drops off into the end of the month, with the 30th and 31st offering smaller, but still clean, conditions for the more experienced crew.

Rusty

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