El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for El Estero over the next couple of weeks.

The pattern ahead is a bit of a slow burn, but there’s a proper window of clean, consistent surf setting up for the second half of the period. Don’t expect much action in the first few days – it’s small and a little tricky. The real standout is shaping up for Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th, when we get a nice run of clean conditions with solid, long-period SW groundswell.

Right out of the gate, Monday the 10th is a write-off. We’ve got 3ft of SW swell but the wind is howling from the ENE at 16 mph, making it cross-off and messy. The water is sitting at 86°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Tuesday the 11th morning is much cleaner. The swell stays around 3ft from the SW, but the wind drops to 12 mph and turns offshore (ENE). The period stretches to 14 seconds, giving the waves some real push. The combined energy is moderate (379). It’s a good, clean morning session for the intermediate crew. The afternoon goes downhill with a SW cross-on wind and a big jump in period to 18 seconds, but the quality drops right off.

Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th are small and marginal. Morning windows offer clean 2ft waves, but the energy is weak to moderate. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but nothing to write home about.

Now, things start building from Friday the 14th. The morning sees 4ft of SW swell with an 18-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps to a strong 822. The wind is cross-off from the ENE, so it’s clean. This is a taste of what’s coming. The afternoon gets a little messy with a cross-shore breeze, but the swell builds to 4ft and the energy hits a very strong 1132.

Saturday the 15th morning is the biggest of the run so far: 5ft of SW swell with a 16-second period. Combined energy is a very strong 1113. The wind is cross-off and moderate, so the waves will be powerful and lined up. This is pushing into expert territory at that size, but it’s going to be pumping.

The standout is Sunday the 16th. The morning is absolutely glassy – zero wind from the SW. We’ve got 4ft of SW swell with a 15-second period. The combined energy is a solid 606. This is as clean as it gets. The waves will be peeling nicely with long gaps between sets, making it easier to get into position. This is the pick of the entire forecast. The afternoon stays clean with a light NE cross-off breeze. Crowds are likely here, but for conditions like this, it’s worth the company.

Monday the 17th keeps the good run going: 4ft of SW swell, 14-second period, light offshore wind from the E in the morning. Combined energy is still strong (598). It’s another excellent day.

Tuesday the 18th morning is also clean with a gentle offshore from the ENE, but the swell starts to back off slightly to 4ft. Afternoon turns poor with a SW cross-on.

The second week sees the swell drop away. Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th offer small, clean morning windows (2ft to 3ft) but with weak to moderate energy. From Friday the 21st through Sunday the 23rd, it’s tiny – 1ft to 2ft. However, Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th mornings see a spike in period back to 18 seconds, which means long-period groundswell. The waves will be small but incredibly clean with offshore winds. It’s a long-range call, so treat it as promising but less certain.

Tuesday the 25th morning is another clean, small window. After that, the trend fades.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a slow start, but Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are your absolute best bets for clean, powerful surf. Get on it.

Rusty.

Read more