El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window looking at El Estero, a river mouth setup that’s consistent and exposed to the west-northwest. The water is running a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 86°F, which is a couple notches above average.

The first few days start off with a bit of a mixed bag. On Wednesday the 9th, we’ve got a 3ft SW groundswell ticking in with a 16-second period – that’s proper long-period energy, perfect for a river mouth where the current can help shape it. The morning is clean with a cross-off wind, but it’s a fresh breeze at 30 km/h, so it’ll be a bit of a paddle. The afternoon cleans up nicely with a light offshore breeze and 3ft swell, making it a much better window. The combined energy sits at 674 and 564 respectively, moderate but solid.

Thursday the 10th sees the swell pick up to 4ft from the SW, and the morning brings a 17-second period – very long period groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 1124, which is strong. The morning is clean with a gentle cross-off breeze, but the afternoon turns into a messy cross-onshore with a risk of thunderstorms, so you’ll want to be out early. Friday the 11th keeps the 4ft SW swell going, with the morning looking clean under a gentle cross-off, and the afternoon going glassy with very light offshore winds. The combined energy is moderate at 701 and 633. Saturday the 12th drops a touch to 3ft, but the morning has a light cross-off breeze and clean conditions. The afternoon gets a cross-on breeze and a bit of chop, so stick to the early session.

Now, if you’re looking for the standout, I’d point to Sunday the 20th. That morning the swell is 3ft from the SW with a 19-second period – that’s very long period groundswell, and the combined energy is 650, strong. The wind is glassy, dead calm, which is rare. It’s going to be dead clean, with long, peeling lines off the river mouth. That’s your best bet in this whole window. The crowds are “often” here, so expect company, but for that quality, it’s worth it.

The rest of the second week shows a continuing SW swell, but the afternoons often get a cross-on breeze and risk of thunderstorms. The mornings are generally the call. On Monday the 21st, the morning is clean with a light cross-shore breeze and 3ft swell at 18 seconds, but the afternoon gets choppy with a moderate breeze. Tuesday the 22nd has a tricky morning with a light cross-shore, but the swell is 4ft with a 16-second period and combined energy of 1007 – strong. The afternoon is poor with a cross-on wind. Wednesday the 23rd is a bit of a washout in the afternoon, but the morning has a 3ft swell at 15 seconds with a light cross-shore.

Thursday the 24th is interesting: the swell swings to the WSW at 5ft, but the period drops to 8 seconds – short period wind swell. The morning is dead calm and glassy, so it’ll be clean, but the waves won’t have the same punch as the groundswell. The combined energy is 614, moderate. The afternoon turns cross-onshore and choppy again. That 5ft is a bit punchy for beginners, but for the experienced crew, it’s a fun size.

Overall, the best on offer is that Sunday the 20th morning session. The glassy conditions, long-period groundswell, and clean lines at El Estero make it the pick of the 16 days. Stay patient, and get on it when the wind drops.

Rusty out.

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