El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, this is Rusty. Right, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start here at El Estero, a river mouth break that’s exposed to the WNW swell. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so nothing too crazy to report there. The first few days are looking pretty ordinary. Thursday the 16th has some small 2 ft SW swell crossing in the morning, but we won't see anything worth paddling out for until the afternoon. That afternoon picks up a bit of life with a 3 ft SSW swell and a 13-second period, but the real issue is the cross-off wind. It’s clean, sure, but the combined swell energy is sitting at 374 (moderate), and the scores tell me it’s only just worth a look. Still, with light wind it’s a possible option if you’re desperate.

Friday the 17th is a write-off in the morning – just 1 ft of weak, short-period swell. The afternoon improves slightly to 2 ft SSW, but the wind is still cross-off and onshore enough to make it messy. Saturday the 18th morning is marginal, but the afternoon is where we get a tiny window. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, and with 3 ft SSW swell at 12 seconds, it’ll be clean and rideable. Crowds are often here, so expect company. That'll be the best of the first week, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Sunday the 19th morning is poor, with a tiny 2 ft SW swell, but the afternoon bumps back up to 3 ft SSW with 449 moderate energy. Clean, but still just a small wave. Monday the 20th morning shows a 3 ft SW swell with a long 16-second period, which is a nice groundswell, but the conditions are marginal with a moderate breeze. The afternoon goes poor with stronger wind. Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty average – small swells, cross-off winds, and low scores. The best of the early week is Wednesday the 22nd afternoon, with a fresh offshore wind from the east at 19 mph and a clean 2 ft SW swell. It’s small, but offshore wind is always a gift. The combined energy is weak at 193 though.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Thursday the 23rd afternoon brings a surprise – a tiny 1 ft swell, but the period is a massive 26 seconds. That’s very long-period groundswell, which at a river mouth can be a beautiful thing, peeling down the bank. The wind is light offshore, and the energy reads 296 (moderate). It’ll be hard to get, but for those who know the bank, it could be a gem.

But the real standout, the one I’m getting excited about, is Friday the 24th. The morning will be firing with a 3 ft SW swell, a 24-second period, and a moderate offshore breeze. The combined energy hits 768 – that’s good, strong energy for the size. The score says expect very good conditions. This is the one to circle. The afternoon stays glassy with a chance of a storm, but the morning window is where you want to be.

Saturday the 25th morning continues the run with a 3 ft SW swell, 21-second period, light offshore wind, and energy at 998 – nearly a four-digit number, very strong. It’ll be clean, consistent, and the river bank should be handling it beautifully. Crowds will be a thing here, but it’ll be worth the paddle.

Sunday the 26th is the next big call. We’ve got 4 ft SW swell, 19-second period, and glassy conditions in the morning. The combined energy is 1220 – strong to very strong. This is excellent for experienced surfers. It’s getting a bit solid for beginners, but if you know the spot, it’ll be a memorable session. The afternoon holds similar size but turns cross-shore.

Monday the 27th morning is also excellent, with 4 ft SW, 18-second period, and light offshore wind. Energy at 1157. Another cracker. Tuesday the 28th morning pushes to 5 ft SW, still a 17-second period, and near-calm wind. Energy hits 1635 – very strong. This is expert territory at that size on a river mouth, but for the crew who surf heavy banks, this is the session to lock in. The afternoons turn onshore and messy from here on out.

Wednesday the 29th morning still has 5 ft SW, glassy, and 1042 energy. Excellent for experienced surfers. Thursday the 30th morning drops to 4 ft SW with glassy conditions and 739 energy. Still very good. The last day, Friday the 31st, is 4 ft SW with a cross-off breeze – marginal, but still surfable.

So, the two true standouts: Friday morning the 24th with that long-period groundswell and offshore wind, and Tuesday morning the 28th for the bigger, powerful swell. Those are the sessions to plan around. Everything else in the first week is just keeping the stoke alive.

Rusty.

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