El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me break down the surf on offer for El Estero over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a solid stretch of swell coming, but the winds are going to be the key to whether you score or not.

The action kicks off on Sunday the 26th of July. We’ve got a long-period groundswell from the SW, a solid 4ft with a 19-second period, which is a beautiful, powerful pulse. The ENE wind is blowing offshore at 12 mph, cleaning it up perfectly. The water is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The combined energy is solid at 978 (moderate), so there’s plenty of juice. This is a genuine standout for the weekend. The afternoon glass off is even better for the experienced crew, with a 4ft swell and a glassy surface, but that’s a bit bigger and more powerful, so it’s for the reliable surfers.

Monday morning the 27th is still clean with a cross-off breeze and a similar 4ft, 19-second swell, but the quality drops a notch in the afternoon as the wind turns cross-on. The real fire comes back Tuesday morning the 28th: the swell pushes up to 6ft with a 17-second period, and the ENE wind is howling offshore at 6 mph. The energy is massive at 1766 (strong to very strong). This is a expert-level session—too big for beginners, but for the experienced, it’s a proper barrel if you can get the tide right. The morning is the only window, as the afternoon gets chopped up.

Wednesday the 29th morning is still a good call with 5ft and a cross-off breeze, but the energy is dropping slightly. By Thursday the 30th, the swell is backing off to 4ft, and though the mornings stay clean, the power is dropping. The afternoon onshores are a problem.

We hit a bit of a lull from Friday the 31st through to the next week. The swell drops under 3ft, and afternoons are a write-off with storms and cross-on wind. There’s a decent window on Saturday the 1st of August morning with a glassy 3ft, great for a longboard, but it’s small. The pattern is mostly small, clean mornings and messy afternoons until about Wednesday the 5th of August, when the swell really bottoms out to 1ft—barely a ripple.

Then, a bit of a spark returns on Friday the 7th of August morning. The swell jumps back to 2ft, but the period is a tasty 18 seconds, and the offshore wind is back at 12 mph. The energy is only 292 (weak), so it’s not a world-beater, but it’s clean. The real hope is Saturday the 8th of August afternoon: a 3ft, 15-second SW groundswell with a clean cross-off breeze and energy hitting 580 (moderate). This is the best of the second week—a promising, cleaner session for the weekend.

After that, the swell fades again into the 9th and 10th, with small, clean conditions but nothing to get excited about.

Overall, the absolute standout is Sunday the 26th of July morning at El Estero. That 4ft, 19-second groundswell with offshore wind is a treat. The second best is Tuesday the 28th of July morning for the experts, and the long-range hopeful is the Saturday the 8th of August afternoon session.

Rusty.

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