El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for El Estero over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there are some moments that really get the blood pumping.

First thing you need to know – the water is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a nice little bonus for the early sessions.

The pattern starts off pretty flat and average. Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th have tiny waves, around 1 ft to 3 ft from the SW. The wind is a cross-off from the ENE, but it’s blowing 18 to 19 mph, so it’s fresh and messy. Not worth paddling out for. Sunday the 19th afternoon sees a bit of a pulse – 2 ft SW swell, period 18 seconds, but it’s still small. The energy is weak to moderate (201). It’s surfable, but you’d be scratching for scraps.

Monday through Wednesday (20th to 22nd) are pretty poor. The swell stays small, around 2 ft to 3 ft, and the wind is a stiff cross-off again. The combined energy sits between 153 and 377, which is weak to moderate. Not much to get excited about. Thursday the 23rd morning brings a little more size – 4 ft SSW swell, but the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s going to be a bit fat and lumpy. The afternoon actually turns offshore with a light easterly breeze, but the swell drops to 1 ft. That’s a tease.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window is the weekend of the 26th and 27th, and then again on the 28th. Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th show building energy. The combined energy jumps to 853 on Friday morning and 944 on Saturday morning – that’s moderate to strong wave energy. The swell is 3 ft to 3 ft from the SW, with a long period of 24 and 21 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The wind is offshore from the E and ESE, light to moderate, so the surface will be clean. These are the best sessions on offer. The river mouth at El Estero is a good bet for this kind of longer-period swell, as it wraps in nicely.

Sunday the 26th is the absolute pick. Morning sees 4 ft SW swell, 19 seconds, with glassy conditions – the wind is dead calm from the east at 3 mph. The combined energy is 938. That’s clean, lined-up waves for the experienced crew. The afternoon gets even better: 4 ft SW, 18 seconds, glassy again, and the energy jumps to 1307. This is excellent, but at 4 ft it’s still manageable for intermediates who are comfortable. The crowd situation at El Estero is “often” busy, so expect company, but it’s worth it.

Monday the 27th morning holds 4 ft SW swell, 18 seconds, with a cross-off breeze. The energy is 1263. Good, clean waves, but the wind is a bit stronger. Tuesday the 28th morning is another cracker: 5 ft SW swell, 18 seconds, with a light cross-off from the NE. The energy is 1527 – that’s strong energy. This is getting into the bigger range, so it’s more for the experienced surfer. The swell direction matches the optimum (WNW) closely enough for this break.

The second week (July 29th to August 1st) looks smaller and less consistent. Wednesday the 29th morning has 5 ft SW swell, 16 seconds, with a light cross-off. Clean, but the energy has dropped to 1042. The rest of the week sees a slow decline. Thursday the 30th afternoon picks up a little with a glassy session – 4 ft SW, 14 seconds, and 564 energy. Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st of August are smaller, with 2 ft to 3 ft, and offshore winds, but the energy is weak to moderate.

Overall, the best bet is Sunday the 26th and Tuesday the 28th, with the morning sessions being the cleanest. The long-period swell on the 26th and 27th gives you proper groundswell lines, but the lower tides and the river mouth should handle it well. Don’t get too excited about the first week – it’s a slow start.

Rusty.

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