El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here. This is your 16-day outlook for the spot. We’ve got a decent little run of surf coming up, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down.

Alright, so the main event here is El Estero. This is a river mouth setup, and it’s exposed to WNW swell. It’s usually a consistent spot, but you don’t always get the conditions to line up perfectly, so we need to pick our windows.

We’ve got a run starting on Friday the 3rd with some small, long-period groundswell. It’s rideable, but not the best due to a moderate cross-off wind. The water temp is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—a nice treat. The overall energy is moderate at 574.

The real standout window is shaping up for Monday the 6th through Tuesday the 7th. That’s where the magic happens. Monday morning (6th) we get a clean 2ft swell from the SW with a very long 20-second period, and a gentle offshore breeze from the ENE. It’s small but the quality is going to be high. The energy is already strong at 770. Then Tuesday morning (7th) is the peak: 4ft of SW groundswell at 18 seconds, with that same gentle offshore wind. The energy jumps to 1216. This is definitely the best session on offer for experienced surfers. If you can only go out once, make it Tuesday morning.

After that, Wednesday the 8th still has some life. The morning sees a clean 5ft swell, but the wind swings cross-offshore. The afternoon though… glassy conditions on a 4ft SW swell. That’ll be a smooth, fun session with the energy still strong at 757. It’s a great option for the less-crowded afternoon.

By the end of the first week and into the second, the swell drops off and the winds get messier. There are a few clean mornings—like Friday the 10th and Sunday the 12th—with waist-high waves and offshore breezes, but nothing to get too excited about. The energy drops down into the moderate 300-400 range.

After the 14th of July, things get pretty weak. We see a few glassy afternoons on the 15th and 16th with barely any swell showing up. The energy is weak, down to 79 or lower, and the waves are only knee-high at best. It’s a proper lull.

The call: If you’re looking for the one standout, it’s Tuesday morning, July 7th. Clean 4ft SW swell, long period, offshore wind. The river mouth setup will handle that long period better than a beach break. Sunday the 5th and Thursday the 9th are ones to skip due to the risk of thunderstorms and cross-onshore winds. Otherwise, pick your clean mornings when the offshore breeze is working and the swell is still above 3ft.

Stay stoked, and don’t sleep on that Tuesday session.

\- Rusty

Read more