El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We're looking at El Estero, a river mouth setup that's got a good line on that SW swell. It's a consistent spot, so we've got waves coming through for the whole 16-day forecast, but the quality and size are going to shift. The water's sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can definitely leave the thick wetsuit at home.

We start off on Thursday the 2nd of July. It's a mixed bag to begin with. The morning has some clean, 3ft surf from the SW, but the wind is a moderate cross-off from the ENE. The combined energy is moderate (534). The afternoon shapes up better though – the wind swings to a gentle offshore from the east, and the waves are still a clean 3ft. Solid and clean for a river mouth.

Moving to Friday the 3rd of July, we’re looking at the first real highlight. The morning serves up a moderate offshore wind from the ENE and a very clean 3ft SW groundswell. The combined swell energy is good and solid at 574. This is the call for the early session. The afternoon stays clean with a slight cross-off wind, but the morning is where the quality sits.

Saturday the 4th of July starts clean but a stiff cross-off breeze from the ENE makes it a bit scratchy. Conditions go downhill fast in the afternoon with a cross-on wind and a risk of thunderstorms. That's a skip.

Sunday the 5th of July is where it starts to get good again. We've got a slight offshore breeze from the ESE in the morning, and the swell is a clean 3ft from the SW with a long, quality 18-second period. The energy is moderate to strong (533). Then on Sunday afternoon, it goes glassy. Zero wind and a clean 3ft swell. That afternoon session is pure butter.

Then we get a real standout in the week ahead. Monday the 6th of July morning is magic. A gentle offshore from the east sets up a glassy 2ft groundswell with a very long 20-second period. The combined energy jumps up to a solid 770. That's a long-period groundswell, so it will draw up nicely on the river mouth. This is the best session of the first week by a mile.

Tuesday the 7th of July morning has the swell building to 4ft with a moderate energy reading of 1216. It's clean with a cross-off breeze, but the real standout is Tuesday afternoon. The swell hits 5ft from the SW—that's getting into expert territory—and it's absolutely glassy. The energy is very strong at 1367. For the experienced crew in the water, that session is going to be firing.

The middle of the week is a bit more mixed. Wednesday the 8th of July and Thursday the 9th of July see good morning sessions with clean swell in the 4ft to 4ft range, but the afternoons get choppy with cross-on winds. The quality dips.

By the second week, from Friday the 10th of July onwards, the swell drops back into the 2ft to 3ft range. The mornings are consistently clean with offshore breezes, and the afternoons often get glassy. The energy levels drop back to the 300-400 range. The consistency stays high, but the power is gone.

Friday the 17th of July rolls in with a solid pulse of 3ft SSW groundswell, a long 18-second period, and the combined energy jumps back up to 611. That's the standout of the second week, with a moderate cross-off breeze keeping it clean all day. It's a promising sign for the end of the run.

So for the best on offer, I'm calling Monday the 6th of July morning for the clean, long-period perfection, and Tuesday the 7th of July afternoon for the bigger, glassy barrels for the experts. Friday the 17th of July is the one to watch for the second week.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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