El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checking in on the local scene. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but don’t write this stretch off just yet. The real action kicks off later in the week, with a couple of proper standouts that are worth clearing the schedule for. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there.

The first decent window opens up on Thursday afternoon, July 23rd at El Estero. It’s a river mouth setup, which loves a good south-west groundswell. We’re looking at a tiny 1 ft swell on paper, but the period is a massive 26 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. Combined energy is only moderate (392), but it’s also glassy with the wind barely a whisper. That’s clean, lined-up little peelers, perfect for a longboard or a fun mid-length. It’s a consistent spot, so it’ll be working, but expect a few others to have the same idea – crowds are often here.

Friday, July 24th sees a jump in energy. The morning is clean but a bit on the small side (3 ft, 24-second period, strong energy at 982). The afternoon is where it gets interesting. The swell drops slightly to 2 ft, but the period stays long at 24 seconds, and the energy is still strong (598). The wind is a clean cross-off, and the conditions are labelled as “very good.” This is the first of the real quality windows.

Now, the standout. Saturday, July 25th is a solid day. Morning has 3 ft of long-period SW swell (21 seconds) with strong energy (849) and clean cross-off winds. But the afternoon? That’s the one. The wind drops to glassy, the swell holds at 3 ft with a 20-second period, and the energy is still strong (611). That’s clean, glassy conditions on a consistent river mouth break. This is the best of the weekend.

Sunday, July 26th keeps the run going. The morning is clean with 4 ft of SW swell (19 seconds) and strong energy (963). The afternoon glassed off again with 4 ft swell (18 seconds) and very strong wave energy (1118). This is excellent for experienced surfers, but at 4 ft, it’s still very manageable for a confident intermediate.

Monday, July 27th is a sleeper hit. The afternoon has 4 ft of groundswell (19 seconds), very strong energy (1403), and light offshore wind. The conditions are clean and excellent for experienced surfers.

Tuesday, July 28th is the biggest push of the forecast. The morning sees 6 ft of SW swell (18 seconds) with very strong wave energy (1766) and a clean offshore breeze. That’s a solid step up. At 6 ft, beginners should sit this one out. The afternoon gets even bigger at 6 ft, but the wind swings cross-on and makes it choppy, so the morning is the clear winner.

Wednesday, July 29th morning is a gem. 6 ft of SW swell (16 seconds), very strong energy (1420), and a glassy cross-off breeze. That’s another session for the experienced crew.

After that, the swell slowly backs off into the first week of August. The energy drops from very strong back to moderate, and the winds become more fickle, with a lot of cross-on and onshore afternoon slop. There are some small, clean mornings around August 1st and August 3rd with 2-3 ft of SW swell, but nothing that screams must-surf. The afternoon of August 3rd is worth a mention – 2 ft, 13-second period, and glassy conditions with clean look. It’s a fun little window.

If I’m picking one true standout, it’s Saturday afternoon, July 25th at El Estero. Glassy, 3 ft of long-period groundswell, and the river mouth will handle that direction perfectly. The second best is Monday afternoon, July 27th – similar size, light offshore wind, and very strong energy.

Rusty.

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