El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming up for El Estero. This is a river mouth setup, exposed to the west-northwest, so it needs a solid push from the right direction to light up. The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year, nothing too wild on that front.

The outlook starts off a bit slow. The first few days are small and pretty average. On Monday the 13th, we’ve got a small 2ft-3ft swell from the southwest, with a long period of 14 seconds, but the energy is weak (200). The morning is cross-off wind, and the afternoon turns clean with offshore breeze. It’s surfable, but don’t expect much. Tuesday the 14th is similar: tiny waves, 2ft-2ft, with a long period but very low energy (140). The morning has a gentle offshore that keeps it clean, but the afternoon turns cross-on. It’s pretty ordinary.

Wednesday the 15th sees a bit more push. The morning has 2ft from the SSW with a 13-second period, and a moderate offshore wind keeping things clean. The energy is moderate (364). The afternoon is even better – 2ft from the SW but with a very long 16-second period, light cross-off wind, and clean conditions. The energy is moderate (418). This is one of the better windows early on.

Thursday the 16th morning has a clean 3ft from the SSW, gentle offshore, and moderate energy (287). The afternoon turns risk of thunderstorms and a cross-on wind, making it a bit messy. Friday the 17th morning is tiny – 1ft with a long 15-second period – so not much to get excited about. The afternoon cleans up with a light cross-off and 2ft from the SSW, moderate energy (306).

The weekend is hit and miss. Saturday the 18th has moderate offshore winds but only 3ft from the SSW and moderate energy (305). The afternoon gets cross-shore wind and some thunderstorms, so not great. Sunday the 19th morning is poor – 2ft with a very long 19-second period, but the energy is low (194) and the wind is cross-off, so it’s clean but weak. The afternoon has 3ft from the SSW, moderate energy (453), and clean conditions.

The whole week from the 20th to the 24th is a bit of a slog. The swell stays small, 2ft-3ft, mostly from the southwest, with moderate energy but the quality is marginal. The winds are mostly cross-off or onshore, and there are a few days with thunderstorms. The 22nd afternoon has a surprise clean 2ft from the SW with a 13-second period, but it’s tiny. The 23rd afternoon turns onshore and messy.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Saturday the 25th morning is a standout. The swell is only 2ft, but it’s from the SW with a very long 21-second period. That’s a proper groundswell. The energy is moderate (413) and the wind is a light offshore. This river mouth should handle that long period well, offering clean, lined-up waves. It’s small, but the quality will be there for a longboard or a fun fish.

Sunday the 26th morning is even better. The swell is 3ft from the SW, still with a very long 19-second period, and the energy jumps to strong (566). The wind is light cross-off, leaving it glassy. This is the best of the run. Expect clean, smooth waves with good shape. The afternoon sees a cross-on wind and thunderstorms, so get on it early.

The final days, Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, are also very good. Monday morning has 3ft from the SW with an 18-second period, light offshore wind, and very strong energy (704). The surf will be clean and powerful. The afternoon holds quality too, with light cross-off wind and similar energy (602). Tuesday the 28th morning is another winner: 3ft from the SW, 16-second period, light cross-off wind, and strong energy (519). It’s still clean and fun.

So, the best windows are the mornings of the 25th, 26th, 27th, and 28th. The 26th is the true standout – that long-period groundswell with glassy conditions is a special combo. The 27th is a close second with more size and power. Crowds at El Estero are often an issue, so get there early. This is a consistent spot, so it tends to deliver when the swell lines up.

Rusty.

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