El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next couple of weeks for El Estero. It’s a slow start, but there’s some real magic brewing if you’re patient.

The first few days are paddling in the dark. Wednesday the 15th is the only immediate bright spot—clean, ridable waves with a solid 2ft SSW swell running on a 13-second period. The combined energy is moderate (453), and with offshore ENE wind first thing and glassy conditions by afternoon, it’s a nice little session. Not a standout, but a good way to dip your toes in.

Then we hit a long dry spell. From Thursday the 16th through to the end of the following week, the surf is mostly marginal or poor. Sure, there are small waves (1ft to 3ft), but the wind is cross-off or cross-on most of the time, and the energy drops. The period hovers around 12-15 seconds, but the swell is just too weak to get excited about. Sunday the 19th afternoon offers a brief glimmer—2ft SW swell, 18 seconds, clean offshore wind—but it’s a tease. The whole stretch from the 16th to the 23rd is a write-off for anything worth paddling for.

Now, hold on to your board. The real show starts Saturday the 25th of July. The morning brings a 3ft SW groundswell with a 21-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 883 (moderate). That’s a long-period swell, which means those waves will have shape and power, but at a beach-and-river setup like El Estero, they might break a little straight. Still, it’s clean and the wind is light. By Sunday the 26th, things get serious. The swell builds to 4ft SW, period 19 seconds, and energy hits 1016 (strong). This is excellent surf for experienced surfers—clean, glassy morning, and the river mouth should line up nicely. Monday the 27th is the absolute standout: 5ft SW swell, 18-second period, with glassy conditions and zero wind. The energy is a whopping 1388 (very strong). This is the best of the best in the whole forecast. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Into Tuesday the 28th, the swell holds at 5ft SW, but cross-on wind in the afternoon chops it up. Grab the morning instead. Wednesday the 29th still has clean 4ft SW swell with offshore wind, but the afternoon turns choppy. The very end of the window on Thursday the 30th offers one last clean morning with 4ft SW swell and 15-second period, but it’s not as strong.

Best on offer: Monday the 27th of July, morning. 5ft SW swell, 18-second period, glassy, calm wind. That’s as good as it gets. Next best is Sunday the 26th morning, and Saturday the 25th morning is a solid warm-up.

Rusty

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