El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks at El Estero.

First up, the water temp is sitting at a warm 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a nice little bonus. The vibe for the first few days is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some solid, long-period groundswell rolling in from the SW, with a seriously juicy 1132 combined energy reading on Friday afternoon. That’s a lot of power in the water, with waves around 4ft and a period of 18 seconds. That long period means the sets will be fat, clean, and have some proper push, but it also means it’ll be a bit shifty on the beach. This is a river break, so the long-period swell should wrap in nicely. The wind is a moderate offshore from the ENE, so it’s going to be clean. That’s your best bet for the first week, but it’s not a total standout due to the size and tricky nature of the swell.

Saturday morning bumps up to 5ft, but the wind goes cross-offshore and picks up to 18 mph, which will put a bit of chop on the face. The energy drops a touch to 1113, but it’s still solid. It’s more of a grunty, blown-out day for experienced surfers only. The rest of the week into early next week is a slow fade. The swell drops to 4ft by Monday, with lighter winds, and the energy falls into the 400-500 range. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

There’s a notable gap from the 18th afternoon through the 21st where the wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, and the quality tanks. You’ll see a few morning windows with clean conditions and offshore breezes, but the swell is small and weak. The real stand-out, if you’re patient, is the very end of the run. On Friday the 28th morning, we see a clean, gentle offshore breeze from the E with a 3ft SW swell and a 16-second period. The energy is back up to 448. Then Saturday the 29th morning is the real gem: 4ft from the SW, 16 seconds, light ENE offshore wind, and the energy jumps to 836. That’s the most promising window of the entire forecast. It’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it, but as things stand, that’s your best call.

Overall, the first week is for the experienced crew who want to grapple with a powerful, long-period swell. The second week has a few small, clean windows, but the real highlight is that final weekend. If you can wait, do it.

Rusty

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