El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up.

We’ve got a solid pulse of south-west swell hitting El Estero and it’s looking like a real treat for the experienced crew this week. The water is sitting at 86°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can leave the 4/3 at home.

The standout window kicks off Sunday afternoon, July 26th. The wind goes glassy, and we’re looking at 4ft of swell from the south-west, with a very long period of 18 seconds. This is proper groundswell, and the energy is pumping at 1099 (moderate to strong). At a river mouth, that long period will mean long, clean lines and longer lulls between sets. It’s going to be excellent for experienced surfers, but the consistency is high, so you won’t be waiting forever. Crowds are often here, so expect company.

Monday morning, July 27th, is another cracker. The swell drops a touch to 4ft, but it’s still from the south-west with a very long period of 19 seconds. The wind is offshore from the east-northeast at 12 mph, and the energy is even stronger at 1348. That’s clean, powerful, and pushy. This is the best of the best on offer for the whole outlook.

Tuesday morning, July 28th, the swell bumps up to 6ft with a 18-second period from the south-west. The wind is offshore from the east-northeast (light at 6 mph). The energy is massive at 1766 (strong). That’s pushing into the “experts only” territory – it’s big and powerful for a river mouth spot. Not for the faint-hearted.

After Tuesday, the swell starts to back off, and the afternoons get chopped up by cross-onshore winds. The mornings, however, remain clean for a few more days. By Thursday, July 30th, the swell is down to 4ft and the period has dropped to 14 seconds, losing that punch. The energy is still moderate at 676, but the wind is cross-offshore, so it’s ridable, just not the quality of the earlier days.

There’s a real lull from August 2nd through to August 5th, with the swell dropping to 1ft by the 5th. The energy bottoms out at 124 (weak). It’s going to be pretty flat, so don’t get your hopes up. A few clean mornings but tiny waves.

Then, on August 6th, we see a flicker of life. A 2ft swell from the south-west, but with a very long period of 19 seconds and a jump in energy to 336. The wind is offshore from the east. It’s not big, but it’s clean and the long period will give it some shape.

The real silver lining in the second week is Friday afternoon, August 7th. The swell is 3ft from the south-west, 17-second period, and the wind goes glassy. The energy is moderate at 544. It’s labelled as very good surf conditions – a proper afternoon glass-off session. Worth keeping an eye on.

Also, Saturday afternoon, August 8th, the wind is dead calm, glassy, with 3ft of south-south-west swell at 15 seconds. The energy is 471. That’s another clean, fun session.

The rest of the second week is a mix of clean mornings but small swell, or choppy afternoons. Nothing that’s going to blow your mind.

The Bottom Line: The first three days (Sunday 26th to Tuesday 28th) are the absolute standouts. Get in the water. The quality is high, the swell is big, and the wind is on your side. After that, it’s a waiting game until a few glassy windows in the second week.

Rusty.

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