El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for El Estero. This spot’s a river mouth setup, consistent, exposed to the west-northwest, and with an optimum direction out of the west-northwest, so we are looking at some clean lines coming in.

We’re starting off this stretch today, Wednesday the 12th of August, and straight away we’ve got a nice little run of swell. The water temperature is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year at 86°.

Wednesday morning serves up a clean 2-foot swell from the southwest, but the real standout is the period – 16 seconds of long-period groundswell. That’s proper energy for the size, giving the wave some shape and push. The combined swell energy is moderate (347). The wind is a cross-offshore from the NE, which leaves the surface clean. The afternoon gets even better – a gentle offshore breeze from the east, glassing it up, same swell size and period. This is your window for a smooth, clean session on the banks.

Thursday the 13th also looks promising. The morning has gentle offshore wind and a 2-foot swell from the southwest. It’s nothing epic, but it’s clean. The real highlight, though, is Thursday afternoon: glassy conditions with the wind swinging south at just 3 mph, and the swell bumps up a touch to about 3 feet. The combined energy jumps to 411 (moderate), meaning there’s a bit more grunt in the water. This is the pick of the first few days – glassy with a little more push.

Friday the 14th sees the swell building to 4 feet with a very long 18-second period from the southwest. The combined energy is now strong at 916 and 1132 (moderate to strong). The wind is cross-offshore in the morning and cross-shore in the afternoon. It’s surfable, but the tide might be a factor, and the conditions aren’t perfectly clean. Still, that long period means it could be a bit more lined up at the river mouth.

Saturday the 15th keeps that 5-foot to 5-foot swell going with a 16-second period and cross-off winds. The energy is strong (1118 to 1002), but the forecast calls for marginal conditions and a risk of thunderstorms. It’s not the best.

We then settle into a run of smaller, cleaner mornings from Sunday the 16th through to Tuesday the 18th – swell around 4 feet to 3 feet with gentle offshore winds. These are your “get a fun session in” days, nothing to write home about.

Wednesday the 19th morning offers a clean 3-foot swell with a light offshore breeze, a solid choice if you want a quiet, tidy wave. Thursday the 20th morning is even better, with about 2 feet of swell and glassy conditions – perfect for logging or a longboard.

Now, after that, we hit a real lull from Thursday afternoon through the weekend and into early next week. Swell drops to 1 feet to 2 feet, the afternoons get choppy with cross-onshore winds. It’s going to be flat and messy. This stretch lasts from the 20th to the 25th of August.

But hang on, the real standout is coming up right at the end of the forecast. On Thursday the 27th of August – that’s over a week away, so keep an eye on the charts – we get a nice pulse. The morning has a 4-foot swell from the southwest, with a long 17-second period and a gentle offshore wind from the ENE. The combined energy is strong (703). This is setting up for some very clean, punchy waves at the river mouth. The afternoon gets glassy with a 4-foot swell and 16-second period. That afternoon session on the 27th looks like the absolute best on offer for the entire outlook. Mark it in your calendar.

So overall, grab the glassy windows on Thursday 13th and Thursday 20th for some clean smaller waves, but the big ticket is that Thursday the 27th.

Rusty, signing off.

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