El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for El Estero.

The opening of the outlook kicks off on Tuesday, the 7th of July, with a solid pulse of long-period swell. We’re talking a 4ft to 5ft groundswell coming from the SW, with a period of 18 seconds – that’s a very long period, so expect lots of energy and longer waits between sets. This is a river break, so that kind of long-period energy can line up nicely, but it’s something to be aware of. The water temp is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Tuesday morning is the pick of the whole run. Clean, offshore winds from the ENE at 12 mph, and the afternoon turns glassy with a slight breeze – flat calm. The combined energy is strong, hitting 1126 and 1263 (moderate to strong). For experienced surfers, this is excellent. Crowds are often an issue here, so expect company.

Wednesday morning drops off a notch with cross-offshore winds and a 4ft SSE swell. It’s still clean. The afternoon glass-off gives you a 4ft SW swell and very good conditions. The energy is still moderate (864 and 756).

Thursday through Saturday keeps the swell around 3ft to 4ft, with mostly clean or glassy conditions. The wind is light offshore or glassy, making for some fun, smaller waves. The energy drops into the 400s and 300s, so it’s getting weaker. Still, there are plenty of rideable waves for the intermediate surfer.

Sunday the 12th shows a real drop-off. The swell fades to 3ft, and the afternoon sees onshore wind from the WNW, making it marginal. The combined energy dips to 287 (weak). From here, the surf gets smaller and less consistent.

The middle of the outlook, from Monday the 13th through to the end of the first week, has a lot of small, weak waves. The swell height drops to 2ft to 2ft, and the energy is mostly in the low 100s to 200s. There are a few clean windows, like Tuesday the 14th morning with a 16 mph offshore wind, but the swell is only 2ft. It’s surfable, but very ordinary.

The second week, from about the 16th of July onwards, is pretty grim. The swell drops to 1ft to 2ft, and the energy is mostly under 200, with some periods of glassy conditions but no real power. The 19th of July brings a 2ft swell with a period of 18 seconds, and the energy bounces to 208, but it’s still small. The best you can say is that there are occasional clean, rideable waves, but nothing to get excited about.

Overall, the standout is Tuesday the 7th of July, with that strong, long-period SW swell and glassy wind. It’s the best on offer. After that, it’s a slow fade into small, weak waves, with a long gap of several days of very ordinary conditions. If you’re a beginner, the swell is within your range for most of the first few days, but it gets too small for anyone later on.

Rusty.

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