El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a solid run of surf setting up at El Estero, a river mouth that loves a good SW groundswell. The pattern is clean and building through the opening days, then holding some decent size for a few days before fading out. The whole 16-day window is active, no big gaps of flatness to sit through.

The action kicks off Thursday morning, July 23rd. It’s small to start, with a 2-foot SW swell pushing in at 12 seconds, combined energy of 129 – weak, but it’s surfable and clean with a light cross-off breeze. The afternoon picks up a weird long-period pulse (26 seconds!) but the height drops to 1 feet. That’s a tricky one, a real long-period groundswell that might just run straight past the river mouth. Not the best.

Friday morning, July 24th, is where it starts to get interesting. The swell jumps to 3 feet from the SW, period now a healthy 24 seconds, and the combined energy is up to 869 (moderate). The wind is light and cross-off. That’s a proper long-period groundswell pushing in, and at a river break, those long lines can peel beautifully. The afternoon goes a bit cross-shore, so hit the morning.

Saturday, July 25th, is a standout. Morning session sees 3 feet of SW swell, 21-second period, combined energy climbing to 925 (moderate). Light cross-off breeze again. That’s clean, has some push, and the river mouth will handle that long period well. The afternoon gets a bit sketchy with a risk of storms and onshore wind, so make the early call.

Sunday, July 26th, the swell is building. The morning is 4 feet of SW, 19 seconds, 978 energy – still moderate but getting stronger. Light cross-off keeps it clean. The afternoon only gets better: 4 feet of SW, 18 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1099 (strong). The wind goes almost dead, a slight air with cross-off texture. That’s excellent, experienced surfers will be stoked.

Monday, July 27th, sees the peak of the energy. The morning session is a ripper: 4 feet of SW, 19 seconds, combined energy 1410 (strong) and light cross-off. That’s excellent conditions for anyone who’s comfortable. The afternoon gets onshore, so the morning is your window.

The standout of the whole run is Tuesday, July 28th, in the morning. Clear skies, 6 feet of SW swell, 18-second period, offshore wind straight from the east. The combined energy hits 1766 (strong). That’s a proper pulse of groundswell with glassy offshore wind. The river mouth will be framing up beautifully. The size is pushing into the “too big for beginners” zone, but for intermediate and above, that’s the best on offer.

Wednesday, July 29th, offers another good morning: 5 feet of SW, 16 seconds, and the wind is glassy. Combined energy is 1317 (strong). That’s a clean, powerful morning for experienced surfers. The energy is strong, and the period is long enough for real shape.

From Thursday, July 30th, through to Thursday, August 6th, the swell fades slowly. The mornings are generally clean with light offshore or cross-off breezes, and the swell stays between 4 feet and 1 feet. The combined energy drops from 673 (moderate) down to 71 (weak) by August 5th. The period shortens up, too. By the second week, it’s mostly small, clean, and ordinary. The morning of August 4th has a 2-foot W swell with a moderate offshore wind, but at 11 seconds period and 100 energy, it’s just weak. The afternoon of August 4th is a total dud with a 2-foot N swell at 5 seconds – that’s barely a ripple.

No standouts in the second week. The last morning of the outlook, August 7th, Friday, has 2 feet of SW swell, 18 seconds period, but the wind is a moderate 25 km/h cross-off and the energy is 354 (weak). It’s clean but blown out by the breeze.

Remember, El Estero is a river break, so those long-period swells (15 seconds and up) we’re seeing in the first week are actually a good thing here – they’ll line up well. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, no major anomaly to report.

So, if you’re picking a day, get out for the Tuesday morning, July 28th. That’s the one. Glassy, strong, and clean. The Monday and Wednesday mornings are also excellent. The first week is the real deal; the second week is just small and clean for a quick splash.

Rusty.

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