El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for us over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got one spot to focus on, and it’s a river mouth set-up that catches a fair bit of that south-west groundswell. The water is feeling a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 86°, which is a nice little bonus. The overall pattern starts slow, then builds into a promising window before fading back down.

Things are a bit lacklustre to kick off. Tuesday the 11th is a write-off with marginal, questionable conditions and a light onshore breeze messing with the surface. Not one to wet a board. Wednesday the 12th cleans up nicely in the morning with clean 2-foot surf and a decent 16-second period groundswell from the south-west, but it’s small. The energy is moderate, with combined swell energy around 347. Thursday the 13th afternoon is where we start to see a real highlight: the wind goes offshore from the east, cleaning up those 3-foot waves with a long 15-second period, producing gentle, clean lines. That’s a good session for a log or a mini-mal.

Now, the standout window arrives on Friday the 14th through to Sunday the 16th. The swell climbs to 4 feet on Friday morning with an 18-second period – proper long-period groundswell. This is the kind of energy (combined energy hitting 907 in the morning, 1132 in the afternoon) that makes the river mouth start to pitch. Saturday the 15th morning pushes up to 5 feet, still with that long 16-second period. That’s solid, powerful surf. It is getting into the size where beginners should think twice, but for intermediates and above, this is the pick of the whole period. The morning winds are a little onshore-cross, but with that much juice and period, it’ll still be fun.

Sunday the 16th afternoon is another standout, with a clean 4-foot swell and offshore breeze from the north-east. The combined energy is 606, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the one to circle on the calendar. Good, consistent lines with a bit of punch.

The week of the 17th drops back into the 3-foot to 4-foot range, but the quality hangs in there, especially Monday the 17th afternoon and Tuesday the 18th morning with clean conditions and offshore or cross-off breezes.

From Thursday the 20th onward, the size really fades, dipping to 2 feet to 2 feet. The energy drops off a cliff, down to around 133-208. There is a brief, very small, glassy highlight on Sunday the 23rd afternoon – 2 feet, 18-second period, glassy conditions. That’s a fun little session on a longboard if you’re keen, but it’s small.

The very last gasp of the outlook is Wednesday the 26th morning. An offshore wind from the east greets a building 3-foot swell with a 19-second period, and combined energy of 564. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” It’s two weeks out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. Could be a sneaky good one.

The main takeaway: the best windows are Friday 14th through Sunday 16th, especially Saturday morning for size and Sunday afternoon for clean, lined-up waves. Don’t bother with the first few days or the flat spells after the 23rd unless you just want a paddle.

Rusty.

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