El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range looks are a bit of a slow burn at El Estero. There’s some fun stuff on the horizon, but the start of the window is pretty quiet. We’ve got a bit of a wait on our hands for the first couple of days, but that’s okay—it gives the ocean a chance to settle.

First up, Tuesday the 4th. It’s pretty junky out there. We’ve got a small SW swell at 1.6ft, but that 12-second period is being messed up by a cross-onshore breeze. It’s a stormy afternoon, so it’s not worth getting wet. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, coming in at 85.8°, which is a little notable.

Wednesday the 5th is not much better. The swell is still tiny at 1.6ft, but the morning has a cleaner look with a light cross-offshore wind. It’s surfable, but honestly, it’s pretty ordinary. The afternoon turns back to messy with a cross-on breeze.

Thursday the 6th has some potential if you’re desperate. Morning sees a clean 2.0ft SW swell with light offshore winds. The afternoon goes glassy, but the swell drops a touch to 1.6ft with a shorter 11-second period. It’s fun for a longboard if you’re really keen, but the energy is weak, with combined energy at 110-125.

Friday the 7th is where things start to wake up. The morning brings a cleaner 2.0ft SSW groundswell with a much better 18-second period, and the cross-offshore wind is light. The combined energy jumps into the moderate range at 377. This is the first real sign of life. The afternoon, however, gets messy with a straight onshore wind and some questionable tide issues.

Saturday the 8th is the first proper standout. The morning is clean, but the afternoon is the winner. The swell builds slightly to 3.6ft from the SW with a 15-second period. The wind goes totally glassy, and the combined energy is a solid 522. This is going to be the best surf of the first week. The break is a river mouth, and with that longer period, it will be lining up nicely. It’s a consistent spot, and with those conditions, it’s going to be worth the paddle out.

Sunday the 9th sees the swell holding at 3.3ft, but the morning gets blown out by a moderate offshore wind at 25 km/h. It’s clean but a bit bumpy. The afternoon settles with a light cross-offshore breeze, and it looks good again, but the energy has dropped a bit to 391.

Monday the 10th is a mixed bag. The morning has a clean 2.6ft swell but the wind is up. The afternoon turns poor with a cross-onshore breeze and choppy conditions, so you’ll want to get out early if anything.

Tuesday the 11th is another good one for the morning. The swell is 3.0ft from the SW with a 14-second period, and the wind holds clean and offshore. The afternoon, though, is a washout with a strong cross-onshore wind and a bigger 18-second swell mixing things up. Energy is strong at 763, but the wind will ruin it.

Wednesday the 12th is something special. The afternoon is the standout here. The swell drops to 3.0ft but the period is a solid 16 seconds, and the wind goes glassy. Combined energy is a strong 516 and the conditions are prime. This is the second highlight of the window so far.

Thursday the 13th is back to ordinary. The swell drops off hard into the morning. The afternoon is a bit better with a cross-shore breeze, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Now, into the second week. Things start to get more interesting but also more uncertain.

Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th see a pulse of bigger swell, with heights around 3.9ft to 4.6ft. The periods are long, around 16-18 seconds, and the combined energy is strong, hitting 1048 on the Friday afternoon. However, the wind is up from the ENE at 30 km/h, making it a cross-offshore breeze that will keep it clean but a bit wild. This is more for the experienced crew; the size is getting up there and the power is real.

Sunday the 16th holds similar size but the energy backs off a little. The wind stays fresh, so it will still be a handful.

Monday the 17th is a bit of a mess. The wind is howling at 35 km/h and the surf quality drops. It might be more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers, to be honest.

Tuesday the 18th is the final standout of the window. The swell stays at a fun 3.6ft from the SW with a 15-second period, but the wind finally drops off and goes offshore in the afternoon. The combined energy is a strong 506, and the conditions are described as very good. This is a promising finish, though, being a week out, I’d say it’s promising but not locked

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