El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the stretch ahead.

So the first thing you need to know is that we’ve got a solid run of surf on the calendar here for El Estero, but it’s not all epic. We're looking at a mix of clean mornings getting chopped up by afternoon breezes, and a few windows where it’s just going to be firing. The overall pattern is a slow build in size before a bigger pulse of energy comes through later on. And with those September water temps running a touch warmer than usual, it’s going to feel nice out there.

For the first part of the week, starting Monday the 14th, it’s a gentle start. There’s rideable swell early on, around 2ft, with that SW groundswell pushing through at a long 19 seconds. It’s pretty weak energy overall (292), but the morning is clean with a light cross-off breeze. It’s a bit of a slow burner. The afternoons stay clean but the swell is the same. Tuesday looks better. We get a bump in size to around 2.3ft, but more importantly, the energy jumps way up (515), and with a glassy, off-shore morning wind, it’s going to look really inviting. This is a good time to get out. Tuesday afternoon, the wind swings around and puts a bit of chop on it, so mornings are the go-to.

Wednesday the 16th, the swell keeps pushing up to over 4ft with moderate energy (866). The morning is clean again with a cross-off breeze, and the period is still at 16 seconds. This is shaping up nicely. But the afternoon brings a risk of thunderstorms and a cross-on wind that’s going to turn it messy. The rest of the week follows this familiar tune: clean and glassy mornings with fun, 3ft surf, but the afternoon winds are going to chop it up and make it poor. Friday morning the 18th is a standout for the week, with 3ft of swell and that glassy, clean look. Saturday morning is similar, just a touch smaller.

Then we get to Sunday morning, September 20th, and this is where one of the real highlights sits. The swell bumps back up to 3ft, the energy jumps to strong (735), and the water is glassy. It’s the kind of morning where you don’t want to be doing anything else. This is the pick of the first week.

After that, we have a few days in the middle with a bit of a lull in the action. There’s still surf, but the energy dips and it’s a bit more inconsistent, with more of a "marginal" feel to it. The winds are still ruining the afternoons, and the mornings are just okay. We get a run from the 21st to the 25th where it’s a bit up and down, nothing special, just a waiting game. The swell stays in that 2.5 to 3.5ft zone, with periods dropping off to 13-15 seconds. The energy is still moderate but nothing to get too excited about. Patience is key here.

Now, the back half of the outlook is where things get proper interesting. On Saturday the 26th of September, we see a real jump in size. The morning is showing a solid 7ft+ of WSW swell, and the energy is very strong at 1140. That’s a whole lot of water moving. But, I’ve got to be honest, the wind is going to be a problem. We’ve got a cross-shore breeze that’s not doing us any favors, and the period drops to a short, choppy 9 seconds. This is going to be a lumpy, mess of a day, and it’s not going to be fun for the casual surfer. This kind of size, pushing 8ft in the afternoon, is into expert-only territory, and with the wind, I’d be looking elsewhere, maybe at a kitesurfer’s playground, to be honest. It’s powerful but not clean.

Things settle down but stay solid going into the new week. Sunday the 27th morning looks poor with a cross-on wind, but listen to this – Sunday afternoon the wind swings around to a cross-off and the forecast cleans right up. We’ve got 3.5ft of SW swell with strong energy (877), and it’s saying very good surf conditions. That’s a massive turnaround. That would be a serious session.

Finally, Monday and Tuesday of the next week, the 28th and 29th, are looking like the second real standout of this whole forecast. The swell is coming from the W and is holding size from 4.5ft up to 5.5ft. The energy is strong (814-907), and the periods drop a bit to 10 seconds. The wind is cross-off and clean, and both mornings are showing "very good surf conditions." This is a solid swell, with good winds and shape, and it’s coming right when we need it after that messy Saturday. It's a short window, and it’s further out, so don’t take it as gospel yet, but this is the one to keep an eye on. It’s the kind of promise that keeps you checking the forecast.

So, in short: Don't sleep on the clean mornings of this first week, especially Sunday the 20

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