El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s shaping up for El Estero over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a solid run of cleaner conditions coming through, but the real juice is earlier in the window. The water is sitting at 86°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be comfortable in boardshorts.

The standout is Tuesday the 28th. There’s a 6 ft swell out of the southwest with a very long period of 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell rolling in. The morning is clear with a light offshore breeze, so El Estero (a river mouth setup) will be handling that long-period energy well. This is a river break, and that long period can make it a bit straight at times on a beach, but here it should groom into good shape. The combined energy is strong (1766), and it’s set for intermediate to experienced surfers. If you can get out there Tuesday morning, that’s your best bet.

Wednesday the 29th morning is also a strong option. Another 5 ft southwest swell, period dropping slightly to 16 seconds, but still a long-period groundswell. The wind is cross-offshore from the ENE, keeping it clean. The energy is still high (1232). Not quite as big as Tuesday, but solid.

Thursday the 30th morning sees the swell pulse starting to fade (4 ft, 14 seconds), but the wind is strong from the ENE at 16 mph, which is cross-offshore, so it’s clean. The energy is moderate (675). The afternoon looks better for a lighter session: the wind swings light SSE at 3 mph, and the swell is 4 ft with a 14-second period. The energy drops to 619, but it’s clean and glassy.

After that, the swell slowly backs off through the end of July and into early August. There’s a gap of weaker days from the 31st of July through to the 5th of August, where the swell drops below 3 ft and the winds are more onshore or inconsistent. The energy falls into the low hundreds, so it’s patchy.

Then, looking ahead to the second week, there’s a small uptick around the 7th of August. Friday the 7th afternoon has a 2 ft swell from the southwest, but the period jumps back to 18 seconds. The wind goes glassy – a rare SE breeze at 3 mph, zero wind. That’s a hole-in-one for clean conditions, but the size is tiny. Energy is moderate (387). Not a headline, but a nice glassy session if you’re desperate.

The 8th of August Saturday morning has a similar 3 ft swell from the south-southwest at 16 seconds, with a light cross-offshore breeze. Energy is moderate (434). Then the 9th of August Sunday morning has a 3 ft swell from the southwest at 14 seconds, with a moderate offshore ENE wind at 16 mph. Energy is moderate (343). Those are your best bets in the second week, but they’re small – promising but not certain until closer.

There’s also a notable blip on the 11th of August: a 3 ft swell with a very long 20-second period, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the NE, which is cross-off. The energy is strong (634), but it’s deep in the long-range, so keep an eye on it.

Overall, the first few days are your window. The river mouth can get crowded, especially on a Tuesday morning, so be ready for company. For the rest, it’s mostly small and waiting for a proper pulse.

Rusty.

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