El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ down the pipe for the next couple of weeks.

We’re lookin’ at a run that starts off a bit underwhelming, but man, it builds into some proper action, especially towards the end of the first week and into the second. The main event is definitely El Estero, a consistent river mouth that’s exposed to the west-northwest. The water’s sittin’ at a warm 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can leave the steamer at home.

Monday morning, August 3rd kicks things off with a small but promising pulse. We’ve got a 3ft SW groundswell rollin’ in with a period of 14 seconds, and the wind is glassy out of the ENE at 3 mph. That’s a beautiful start to the day – clean, smooth, and the westerly swell lines are gonna wrap in nicely. The combined energy is moderate at 300. It’s a solid little session for the early birds, but the wind swaps to a westerly onshore in the arvo, so get it while it’s good.

Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th drop off a bit. Swell sizes dip to 2ft with a shorter period, and while the mornings offer clean, cross-off conditions, the afternoon winds are messy. Not a write-off, but nothin’ special.

Thursday the 6th sees a slight bump back to 2ft, but the real shift happens on Friday morning, August 7th. A new SSW groundswell fills in at 2ft but with a very long period of 18 seconds, and the energy jumps to 377 (moderate). The wind is offshore from the ENE at 6 mph. That’s a clean, lined-up bank setup. That long period from the south-southwest is gonna push some good shape into the river mouth, with longer waits between sets but way more push.

Saturday, August 8th is a standout. The swell builds to 3ft from the SSW, period at 16 seconds, and the energy is strong at 580. The morning has a clean offshore breeze from the ENE at 6 mph, and the afternoon is pure glass with zero wind. That’s a full day of fun, clean waves. The water is still that warm 86°, so it’s gonna be a cracker.

Sunday the 9th keeps the goods coming. 3ft swell from the SW, period 14 seconds, and offshore winds all day. The energy is still strong at 413. This is a really nice run of days.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th keep the quality going with 2ft to 3ft swells, offshore mornings, and moderate wave energy. Tuesday afternoon is a bit of a wildcard – a 3ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period pumps the energy up to 720 (strong), but the wind is onshore from the west. That’s a lot of energy but the wind’s gonna mess it up, so stick to the morning.

Wednesday the 12th through Friday the 14th see a bit of a lull in size but the energy stays solid. The real highlight of the second week is Friday afternoon, August 14th. The swell jumps to 3ft from the SW, period at 18 seconds again, and the energy is a strong 750. The wind is light cross-off from the ESE at 6 mph. That’s clean, powerful, and long-period. The wait between sets will be longer, but the waves you get will be worth it.

Saturday, August 15th is the biggest of the run. The swell hits 4ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, and the energy is firing at 950 (very strong). The morning has a moderate cross-off wind, but the afternoon is a beauty – offshore from the east at 3 mph, with clean conditions. At 4ft, that’s a solid size for the river mouth, better suited to intermediate and up. It’s the biggest, cleanest, and most powerful session in the whole forecast.

Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th still have surfable morning windows, with the 17th afternoon offering a clean 3ft with a light offshore. Tuesday the 18th wraps it up with a 3ft SW swell and glassy conditions in the afternoon. Crowds are common at El Estero, so expect company, especially on those standout mornings.

Best bet? Saturday, August 15th afternoon for the biggest, cleanest swell of the window. Second pick is Saturday, August 8th for a full day of glassy fun.

Rusty.

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