El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a long look at what’s on the cards for El Estero this forecast period.

Right off the bat, we’ve got some decent action lined up. The water’s sitting at a warm 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – you’ll be comfortable in a spring suit or less.

Wednesday afternoon kicks things off with a clean 3ft SW groundswell. The period is a long 16 seconds, so there’s real deep water energy in the water. The wind is light and offshore from the E, which is exactly what this river mouth needs to hold good shape. With a combined energy of 564 (moderate), the sets will have some push without being too much. This is a standout session for the first week.

Thursday morning sees the swell bump up to 4ft from the SW with a 17-second period. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1163, so there’s plenty of water moving around. Wind is ENE, a light cross-off, keeping it clean. This is a top pick for a morning paddle.

Friday stays solid – morning has 4ft SW with a 16-second period and cross-off NE wind. The afternoon holds similar size with a light cross-off SSE breeze. Both windows are clean and excellent.

Saturday morning drops back a little to 3ft SW, 14 seconds, still clean and offshore. The energy is lower at 355 (moderate), but it’s still a fun, manageable wave.

From Sunday morning through Tuesday morning, the size dips into the 2ft to 3ft range. The good news is that most mornings stay clean with light cross-off ENE winds. Not big, but rideable for a log or a fish. The Thursday morning the 18th is a standout for the second week – tiny 3ft swell, but the wind is dead calm. Glassy conditions at a river mouth is rare magic. The period is 13 seconds, so there’s some shape in the water.

Then comes a solid pulse around Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st. Sunday morning hits 3ft SW with a 19-second period and a combined energy of 946 (strong). Wind is a light cross-off from the SSE – clean, lined-up waves. Monday morning has 3ft SW, 18-second period, energy at 833 (strong), and a slight air. That’s another top session if you can wait it out.

Crowds here are often a factor at El Estero, so don’t expect solitude. But with a consistent, long-period SW groundswell and mostly favorable wind mornings, the quality is worth sharing the water for. The river mouth setup handles these long-period swells well, giving you better shaped waves and longer gaps between sets that make paddling back out easier.

The rest of the mornings are a mix of smaller, cleaner waves or choppy afternoons. Avoid the afternoons unless you like wind-affected surf.

All in all, the best windows are Wednesday afternoon, Thursday morning, Friday, Thursday morning the 18th (glassy), and the Sunday and Monday mornings of the 20th and 21st.

Rusty.

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