El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got the full lowdown on what’s shaping up for El Estero over the next couple of weeks. We’re starting off slow, but the second week is looking like a proper run of clean, fun-sized waves with some real standouts. Water temp is sitting about average for the time of year, so no need to dig out the extra rubber.

Right now, the first few days are a bit of a tease. Friday the 31st of July, we’ve got a 3ft swell from the SW with a 14-second period, delivering 382 units of moderate energy. The morning’s clean with a cross-off breeze, but the afternoon fades into poor, choppy conditions. Into Saturday the 1st of August, the swell drops a touch to 3ft, but the period stays solid at 13 seconds. The afternoon is where it’s at – a glassy, light breeze and clean lines, with 307 units of energy. Sunday morning the 2nd of August is a cracker: 2ft, a straight offshore wind from the E, and 212 units of energy. It’s small, but it’ll be clean and fun for the longboard or a fish.

The real juice starts showing up on Monday the 3rd of August. We’ve got a 3ft southwest swell with a 14-second period, and the morning is glassy – dead flat wind, 300 units of energy. That’s a beautiful window for a dawny. The week builds from there, but the standout windows are clear. Thursday the 6th of August morning has a clean 2ft swell with a 14-second period, 217 units, and a light offshore. Then Friday the 7th of August morning brings a 2ft swell with a 18-second period – that’s proper groundswell – and 457 units of moderate energy. The offshore wind is moderate, so it’ll be clean and lined up nicely.

Now, the best on offer. Saturday the 8th of August is a true standout. Morning: 3ft from the SSW, 16-second period, clean offshore breeze, and 613 units of strong energy. The afternoon is even better – 4ft, 15-second period, glassy as a mirror, and 573 units. That’s the kind of day you rearrange your plans for. If you can only pick one session, that’s it. Sunday the 9th of August is also a beauty: 4ft, offshore wind, 481 units of energy. The afternoon is dead glass with 3ft and 395 units. The whole weekend is top shelf.

The second week stays promising, with Monday the 10th of August morning offering a clean 2ft and 236 units. Thursday the 13th of August afternoon is another standout: 3ft, 16-second period, clean cross-off, and 575 units of strong energy. That’s a sneaky good session. Friday the 14th of August morning is a write-off for surf quality, but Saturday the 15th of August morning makes up for it with 4ft, a 16-second period, and 573 units of energy. It’s a solid way to cap the forecast.

El Estero (river mouth) is a consistent spot, and crowds are often a thing here, so expect company on the best days. The optimum swell direction is WNW, and we’re getting a steady SW swell, which works well. The long period swells (over 15 seconds) will help the shape but can make it a bit straight at the beach – this river break handles it well. The combined energy values are in the moderate to strong range, so there’s real push in the water. For the bigger swells (over 5ft) we don’t see that here, so it’s all good for intermediates and up. The glassy and offshore winds are a major positive, keeping things clean.

If you’re a beginner, these sizes are fine. Over 8ft is expert territory, but that’s not happening. The period is mostly in the 12–19 second range, so that’s quality groundswell. The long period (over 15 seconds) is a caveat for beach breaks, but El Estero being a river break, it’ll hold up well.

Look, it’s a solid run. The first few days are small but clean, and the weekend of the 8th and 9th of August is the real deal. The second week has some strong, clean options too. Don’t sleep on the Thursday afternoon on the 13th. Stay patient, pick your windows, and you’ll score.

Rusty.

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