El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the outlook for El Estero, the only game in town for this stretch.

The pattern is all about a consistent, long-period SW groundswell that just keeps on giving, but you’ll need to pick your moments. The morning windows are the real deal here, with clean conditions and light winds that make that long-period energy (19 seconds on Thursday morning!) really stand out. The water is running at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so a spring suit or boardies and a rashie will be all you need.

We kick off on Thursday, 3rd September. The morning is your best bet. The swell is a modest 2ft from the SW, but with a very long period of 19 seconds and a light cross-offshore breeze, the river mouth will be clean and lined up. The combined energy is moderate (731). It won’t be big, but the quality will be there. The afternoon turns ugly, with a strong onshore wind and choppy conditions, so leave it for the day.

Friday, 4th September, is a different story. The morning bumps up to a solid 5ft from the SW with a 17-second period and a clean cross-offshore wind. The combined energy is strong (1425). This is getting into the fun zone. It’s excellent for experienced surfers, and the crowds are likely here, so be ready for a lineup. The afternoon is a write-off again with the onshore.

Saturday, 5th September, is the standout of the whole forecast. The morning is glassy – flat calm – with a clean 6ft of SW swell, 16-second period, and very strong energy (1578). This is a proper session. It’s a bit much for beginners, but for anyone with a bit of experience, this is the time to go. The morning is the only window; the afternoon brings a risk of thunderstorms and a cross-onshore breeze.

Sunday, 6th September, is another glassy morning, but the swell has dropped slightly to 5ft with a 14-second period (moderate energy at 847). Still very clean, and a great option if you want a slightly mellower, but still excellent, session. The afternoons remain the weak point.

The following week, from Monday, 7th September, through to the end of the window, the pattern stays the same: clean mornings, choppy afternoons. The swell is smaller, generally between 2ft and 3ft, but the period stays long. The morning of Wednesday, 9th September, is a good one with a clean 4ft SW swell and a 16-second period (moderate energy at 964). Tuesday, 8th September, has a glassy afternoon with a 2ft, 17-second swell that makes for a real longboarder’s delight. Into the second week, the waves are smaller but still clean. The morning of Tuesday, 15th September, is glassy with a 3ft, 18-second swell (moderate energy at 553). The morning of Friday, 18th September, wraps things up with a very clean 2ft, 21-second swell – that’s a very long period groundswell – and the energy is moderate (647). For a river mouth, that long period will produce some nice, walled-up, peeling waves.

Overall, Saturday morning, 5th September, is the absolute pick. The biggest swell, glassy wind, and excellent quality. Friday morning and Thursday, 10th September, morning are also strong. The crowds are a factor at El Estero, so plan to get there early for the early sessions.

Rusty.

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