El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the waves on offer from that solid, consistent little river mouth we’ve got. It’s not gonna be a massive, send-it-big kind of forecast, but there’s a real steady run of clean, rideable surf if you pick your moments. The water’s sitting at a balmy 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so the boardshorts are definitely the call.

Right off the bat, the first proper window is Friday morning (July 10th). We’ve got a tidy 3ft swell rolling in from the SSW with a solid 15-second period, giving it some real push and shape for a river mouth. It’s packing moderate energy (383) and with the ENE breeze holding it cross-offshore, the sets should be lining up clean. It’s not massive, but it’s quality. That afternoon turns absolutely glassy with a 5 km/h southerly, which is pure magic – the surface will be like a mirror.

The pattern holds right through Saturday the 11th and into Sunday the 12th. Saturday morning might have a bit of stormy weather around, but that 3ft SSW swell sticks around, and the conditions are clean. Then it gets really special: Saturday afternoon and all day Sunday see a glassy NNW wind dropping in at just 5 km/h. That’s as good as it gets for surface conditions. The swell ticks up slightly in energy on Sunday morning to 483, still a nice, manageable 3ft from the SW. For a consistent spot like this, that is absolute gold.

Monday morning the 13th is worth a mention too. The swell drops just a touch to 2ft, but we’ve got a proper offshore breeze from the ENE at 15 km/h. The energy is weaker at 200, but for a clean, peeling bank on a river mouth, offshore wind is the secret sauce. That’ll be fun on a longboard or a fish.

Now, there’s a bit of a lull mid-week. Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning gets a bit onshore and the swell drops (2ft with weak energy around 140), but it bounces right back. Tuesday the 14th afternoon sees the energy jump back up to 358 with a clean 2ft swell, and Wednesday the 15th morning is another beauty with a 15 km/h offshore ENE wind again. It’s a bit up and down, but the good windows keep coming.

The standout, no-question-about-it window is Saturday the 18th. That morning we’ve got a 3ft SSW swell with the NNE breeze at 15 km/h holding it cross-off and clean, with strong energy (448). The afternoon shows a 3ft swell from the SSW (492 energy), but that’s a cross-shore wind, so it might put a little crinkle on the face. Still plenty surfable.

Long range, there’s a very promising sign for Saturday the 25th of July. We see a 2ft swell from the SW, but with a *massive* 22-second period. That is a very long-period groundswell, meaning proper energy and long, clean lines, especially for a river mouth. The combined energy is strong at 384, and we’ve got a 20 km/h ENE offshore wind. The only catch? It’s over a week away (July 25th), so treat it as a promising call rather than a guaranteed lock. But it’s the sort of reading that gets you excited for a morning session.

Overall, this isn’t a chase-big-swell forecast, but it’s a *reliable* one. Consistent 2ft to 3ft SSW swells, mostly manageable winds, and a bunch of glassy mornings and afternoons. The river mouth is going to be working nearly every day. The best call is the glassy afternoon sessions on the 11th and 12th of July – that’s just sensational. And keep an eye on that long-period call around the 25th.

Rusty.

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