El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at El Estero over the next couple weeks.

The first few days are the real deal. We’ve got a strong, long-period SW groundswell rolling in from Wednesday morning, and the water’s sitting at a warm 86°, a little warmer than usual for this time of year.

Wednesday morning kicks it off with a clean 5ft SW swell and a very long 16-second period. The combined wave energy is pumping hard at 1232, so there’s plenty of power. Winds are light cross-off from the NE, keeping things clean. This is proper groundswell, so at a river mouth like El Estero, those long-period waves will push through with nice shape, though the sets will be spaced out. It’s a bit sizey – best left for the experienced crew. Wednesday afternoon turns glassy with a light SSW breeze – that’s pure gold.

Thursday morning keeps the quality high with 4ft SW swell, 14-second period, and solid offshore ENE winds at 16 mph. The energy is still strong at 675, and the waves are clean and lined up. Thursday afternoon drops to 4ft, but stays clean with light cross-off winds.

Friday morning still has a fun 3ft SW swell and offshore breezes, with clean conditions. The energy is down to 382, but it’s a decent session. Friday afternoon goes bad though – onshore SW wind kicks up and chops it all up, so you’ll want to be long gone by then.

Saturday and Sunday offer clean mornings with offshore or cross-off winds, but the swell drops to 3ft and then 2ft. Small but still rideable on a longboard. Saturday afternoon goes glassy again, which is a nice bonus.

The first week is the standout – Wednesday and Thursday are the pick of the bunch. Wednesday morning for power and clean lines, Thursday morning right behind it.

Come the second week, it gets patchy. Monday 3rd August and Tuesday 4th have small, clean mornings but not much push. The afternoons get crossed-up or onshore. From Wednesday 5th through to Tuesday 11th, it’s a struggle. Swell sizes hover between 1ft and 2ft, with a few cleaner windows but barely enough wave to stand up. There’s a tease on the 10th and 11th with a very long 20 to 21-second period, but the height is tiny – barely a ripple for the river mouth.

Wednesday 12th and Thursday 13th show a bit more life, with the swell coming back up to 3ft and even 3ft on Thursday morning, plus a 17-second period and strong energy (555). Winds look good Thursday morning too – worth noting, but it’s far out, so don’t hold your breath.

In short, hit it hard Wednesday and Thursday. After that, it’s mostly small and quiet.

Rusty.

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