El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break it down. We’ve got a solid run of surf coming up at El Estero, a river mouth setup that’s exposed to the west-northwest. The water is sitting at about 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – nothing dramatic, but you’ll notice it when you’re sitting in the lineup.

The first few days are a waste of time. Don’t bother paddling out Tuesday the 21st or Wednesday the 22nd. The swell is tiny, weak, and the conditions are just messy. You’ll be dealing with cross-onshore junk and barely a ripple of energy. Not worth a wet suit rinse.

Things start to get interesting Thursday afternoon, the 23rd. That’s when a long-period groundswell rolls in – 26 seconds of pulse from the southwest. The energy is still moderate at 363, but the period is beautifully long. That means fat, lined-up waves with plenty of time between sets. The wind goes light and cross-off, so the surface cleans right up. If you’ve got a log or a step-up, this is a fun little window.

The real standout, though, happens from Friday the 24th through Monday the 27th. This is the best stretch on offer. Friday morning brings a 3ft southwest swell, but it’s packing some serious grunt with a combined energy of 858. The period is still 24 seconds, and you’ve got a gentle cross-off breeze. The waves will be well-shaped, consistent, and the crowd factor is something to consider – El Estero can get busy, especially on a Friday. Saturday the 25th keeps the good times rolling with 3ft and a clean offshore wind in the morning. Sunday the 26th sees the swell bump up to 4ft, and the energy climbs to 920. Still offshore, still clean. Then Monday the 27th is the peak of the run: 4ft of southwest swell, 19-second period, and a gentle offshore wind cranking out excellent conditions. The combined energy hits 1337, which is proper moderate to strong. The waves will have power, shape, and long, clean walls. This is for experienced surfers, though – at this size, with that energy, it’s not a beginner’s game.

Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th keep the swell going, but the afternoons get chopped up by a cross-onshore wind. The mornings are still excellent – 6ft and 5ft respectively, with offshore wind and clean faces. That’s solid, punchy surf, but the crowd factor is inevitable. If you’re an expert, you’ll be grinning.

After that, the energy drops off. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st still have glassy, clean conditions, but the swell fades to 4ft and the period shortens. Saturday the 1st of August is small and choppy in the afternoons. The first week of August sees the swell shrink below 3ft, and the energy drops back into the weak range. There are a few glassy windows – like Monday afternoon the 3rd – but the waves are small and ordinary. By Wednesday the 5th, the morning is clean and offshore with 2ft, but the afternoon brings a glassy 3ft with a short 7-second period. That’s windswell, not much push.

Overall, the best bet is clear: paddle out Friday the 24th through Monday the 27th, focusing on the mornings. That’s where the magic is. The rest is either too small, too messy, or too crowded for the payoff.

- Rusty

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