Surf Forecasts:
El Estero surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 15 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 1,068 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for El Estero this week:
The surf forecast for El Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at El Estero in the next 16 days are 1.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 8s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (CST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for El Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the stretch ahead. The long-range picture is looking a bit soft and small for the most part, but we’ve got a couple of windows where things line up pretty nicely. The start of the period is going to be a bit of a letdown, so don’t get too excited about the early sessions. There’s a distinct drop-off in size before things pick back up with some cleaner, more promising conditions later.
The first standout for me is El Estero (El-Estero) on the morning of Saturday, the 29th of August. It’s over a week out, so we keep our fingers crossed, but the models are showing a promising pulse. We’re looking at a solid 3.3ft of SW swell with a good 15-second period, and the wind is a gentle offshore from the NE. The water is a warm 85.6°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, something you’ll feel right away. The energy is moderate at 681, which isn't huge, but the clean conditions and the long-period swell are what make it special. This is the one to circle on the calendar.
Before that, there’s a gray period. The first week is filled with small, junky surf. The swell is mostly there in the 3ft to 4ft range, but it’s inconsistent and often muddied by onshore breezes and stormy afternoons. The mornings offer some cleaner looks, but the waves lack any real push. The 15th and 16th of August are particularly poor, with cross-off winds and weak, short-period swell. The worst stretch is from the 21st through the 24th, where the swell drops out almost completely.
Now, the second standout is Wednesday morning, the 30th of August. The swell has dropped slightly to 3ft, but it's still from the SW with a long 15-second period. The wind goes dead light and offshore from the E, promising truly glassy conditions. The energy is again moderate at 643. It won’t have the size of the day before, but with conditions that clean, it could be the best quality of the whole run.
There are a few other mornings like the 19th and 21st that have clean offshore winds, but the waves are small and weak. The long-period swells are worth noting at the river mouth, as they’ll be more organized than a beach break, but with the lack of size early on, it's not a whole lot to work with.
If you’re a beginner, the 3ft to 4ft waves in the first part are fine, but nothing over 5ft. For the experts, the bigger pulses near the end will be more interesting. The real story here is the last few days, where the combination of long-period groundswell and offshore winds at El Estero should deliver the cleanest, best-shaped waves of the entire forecast.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Warm (max 31°C on Sun morning, min 24°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the ENE on Sat afternoon, calm by Mon night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 57mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 31°C on Thu morning, min 25°C on Tue afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SSW 11 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
897 | 1041 | 677 | 606 | 598 | 428 | 500 | 410 | 428 | 401 | 539 | 355 | 350 | 288 | 183 | 140 | 286 | 76 | 54 | 100 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-on | off | off | off | off | off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off |
High Tide | 4:33PM2.52m | 4:59AM2.63m | 5:17PM2.42m | 5:41AM2.56m | 6:00PM2.29m | 6:22AM2.44m | 6:44PM2.14m | 7:05AM2.29m | 7:29PM1.98m | 7:50AM2.14m | 8:19PM1.83m | 8:42AM2.01m | 9:18PM1.72m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:43PM0.06m | 11:13AM0.16m | 11:25PM0.15m | 11:57AM0.25m | 00:06AM0.29m | 12:41PM0.36m | 00:48AM0.44m | 1:26PM0.49m | 1:32AM0.59m | 2:16PM0.61m | 2:20AM0.72m | 3:14PM0.71m | ||||||||
— | — | 5:33 | — | — | 5:33 | — | — | 5:33 | — | — | 5:33 | — | — | 5:33 | — | — | 5:33 | — | — | |
6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 5:58 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 17 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 1 | — | 4 | 8 | — | 8 | — |
Temp °C | 30 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 27 | 25 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 27 |
Feels °C | 28 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 25 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 34 | 30 | 29 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 36 | 32 | 31 | 34 | 34 | 31 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | S 8 | SW 14 | SW 14 | S 8 | S 8 | S 8 | SSW 8 | SSW 8 | S 8 | SSW 8 | SSW 7 | SSW 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 |
897 | 1041 | 677 | 606 | 598 | 138 | 500 | 410 | 145 | 153 | 145 | 101 | 104 | 130 | 112 | 108 | 286 | 238 | 242 | 231 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSW 7 | SW 14 | S 8 | S 8 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 6 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
134 | 129 | 195 | 195 | 82 | 428 | 138 | 118 | 428 | 401 | 539 | 355 | 350 | 288 | 183 | 140 | 83 | 21 | 54 | 100 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | SW 8 | — | N 5 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | N 4 | S 12 | S 11 | N 5 | NW 8 | N 5 | S 12 | SSW 19 | SW 15 | WSW 7 | SW 6 |
134 | 3 | — | 16 | 37 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 36 | 76 | 18 | 10 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 5 | NNE 4 | NNE 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 5 | S 8 | NNE 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
33 | 26 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 181 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 29 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Guanacaste | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Costa Rica | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the El Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for El Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at El Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our El Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (El Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for El Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
El Estero is 47 km (29 miles) from Nicoya. If you plan a holiday in Guanacaste, look for hotels and other accommodation in Nicoya. Nicoya has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











