El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for El Estero. This river mouth is firing up with a solid run of clean, rideable waves over the next few days, but we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag further out.

The real standout is Thursday the 10th. That morning, the swell is pumping at 4 ft from the SW, with a solid 17-second period—that’s proper groundswell energy. The wind is a gentle offshore from the ENE, keeping the face clean. The wave energy is strong (1110), so this is one for the experienced crew. It’s going to be a bit punchy, but the river mouth setup will handle that long period well. Water temp is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be comfortable in boardshorts.

Monday the 7th morning is a good warm-up. Swell is 4 ft from the SW, 14-second period, with a light cross-off breeze from the NE. The energy is moderate (542) and the conditions are clean. It’s a solid start to the period.

Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th mornings are also looking tidy. Swell drops a little but stays in the 2 ft to 3 ft range, with offshore winds from the E and ENE. The energy is moderate (625 and 674), and the wave period is still long (16-18 seconds), so you’ll get those long, walling lines. This is a great window for intermediate surfers.

Friday the 11th morning is another good call with 4 ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a cross-off breeze. The conditions are clean, and the energy is moderate (735). After that, the weekend drops off a little. Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th still have clean mornings, but the swell dips to 3 ft and 2 ft, so it’s more of a fun-size wave.

Now, the second week gets a bit prickly. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th mornings have clean, offshore conditions, but the swell is small (2 ft to 3 ft). The energy is low (246 and 622). These are more for the longboard or foiling crew. Wednesday the 16th morning picks up a bit to 4 ft, and it’s glassy clean, which is a nice little window.

From Thursday the 17th onward, the wind patterns get messy. Most afternoons are onshore, and the mornings are often cross-on or onshore. There’s a notable spike on Tuesday the 22nd with a 4 ft to 5 ft WNW swell, but it’s onshore wind and a short 10-11 second period, so it’s going to be lumpy and crumbly. That’s more of a wind-swell situation, and honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Bottom line: the first five days are your best bet. Do not miss Thursday the 10th morning if you’re an experienced surfer. The rest of the second week is a gamble—keep an eye on it, but don’t book the time off work just yet.

Rusty.

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