El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our local stretch. The good news is we’ve got a solid run of swell on the way, but you’ve gotta be patient. The first week or so is a bit of a mixed bag, but the end of the month and into the start of August is where it’s really gonna light up.

The only spot in the game is El Estero, a river mouth that’s consistent and exposed to the WNW. Right now, the water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no weird surprises there.

We kick off on Saturday the 18th of July with a small, clean 2ft SSW swell, but the wave comment tells us it’s marginal. Not worth getting excited about. That afternoon, the swell bumps to 3ft but the call is poor. Sunday the 19th is a bit of a write-off until the afternoon, when we see a 3ft SSW swell hit with a combined energy of 442 (moderate) and the call is for good surf. The wind is a gentle cross-off, so it’ll be clean. That’s a decent session to start getting your feet wet.

Monday the 20th has a morning onshore breeze ruining the 3ft SW swell, but by Monday afternoon, the wind swings offshore. That 3ft SW swell with a 16-second period and 415 energy (moderate) will be clean and organised. Not a standout, but a good paddle.

From Tuesday the 21st through Wednesday the 23rd, it’s a bit of a grind. The swell hangs around 2ft to 3ft, but the conditions are ordinary or poor. The energy is low (114 to 318), and the winds are mostly cross-off. It’s surfable, but you’ll be working for it.

Now, mark your calendars for Friday the 24th of July. That morning, we’ve got a 3ft SW groundswell with a *very long* 24-second period. The combined energy is a strong 901 (moderate-to-strong range), and the wind is a moderate offshore. The call is for *very good* surf conditions. This is a proper groundswell, so it’ll be a bit more peaky and powerful, and with that long period, there will be long lulls between sets. It’s best for the better rippers who can wait for the bombs. The afternoon sees the energy drop to 519, but still with that 24-second period.

Saturday the 25th is a bit of a letdown. The swell is still 3ft SW with a 21-second period and 855 energy (strong), but the wind is a light cross-shore, causing some ripples. It’s a marginal call.

Sunday the 26th of July is a proper standout. We’ve got a 4ft SW groundswell, 19-second period, and 873 energy (strong). The wind is light offshore in the morning, making it clean. But the afternoon is the real gem: the swell bumps to 4ft, still SW, with 18-second period, and the combined energy hits 1095 (strong-to-very-strong). The wind goes completely glassy, and the call is for *excellent* conditions for experienced surfers. This is the one. The river mouth will be handling that long-period energy well, but beach breaks will be straightened out. For a river mouth like this, it’s magic.

Monday the 27th keeps the excellent run going with a 4ft SW swell, 17-second period, and a massive 1542 energy (very strong). Light offshore wind in the morning. This is top-tier stuff. The afternoon gets a bit dicey with a light onshore wind, so catch the morning.

Tuesday the 28th is the biggest of the run. We’ve got a 6ft SW swell, 18-second period, and a whopping 1787 energy (very strong). The wind is glassy in the morning. That’s expert territory – over 8ft is for pros, but 6ft is still a serious, powerful wave for strong intermediates and above. The afternoon gets a light cross-on, so it’s a morning mission.

The tail end of the month (Wednesday 29th to Thursday 30th) still holds 5ft to 5ft SW swell with strong energy, and clean winds in the morning. Very good, but a step down from the peak.

Into August, we start Saturday the 1st with a fresh offshore wind and a 3ft SSW swell. It’s marginal, but clean. Sunday the 2nd of August finishes the run with a 3ft SW swell, 15-second period, 374 energy (moderate), and light offshore wind. A good, clean, easy-going session to wrap it all up.

So, the best on offer? You’ve got a two-day window: Sunday the 26th of July and Monday the 27th of July, with the glassy, high-energy afternoon on Sunday being the absolute standout. The Thursday morning the 24th is also a very good session with that long-period energy. The rest is fun, but those are the ones to rearrange your life for.

Stay frothy.
- Rusty

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