El Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto mate, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for the next couple of weeks. The outlook is a bit of a slow-burner at El Estero. It’s a consistent river mouth set-up that’s exposed to the west-northwest, and looking at the next 16 days, it’s mostly about smaller, clean windows rather than any big, explosive swell. No huge, life-changing bombs coming, but there are a few sessions that’ll have your wettie zipped up in a hurry if you time it right.

The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year, so nothing crazy there.

Alright, let’s break it down. The first few days are okay but pretty small. Saturday morning, August 1, we’ve got a 3ft SW swell with a solid 13-second period and moderate offshore ENE wind at 16 mph. That’s clean, and the combined energy is a modest 265, but it’s surfable. The afternoon goes glassy, which is a treat. Sunday drops to 2ft but stays clean in the morning with a cross-off breeze. The real story starts picking up around Friday, August 7th. That morning, we’ve got a 2ft SW swell but with a 18-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 466, and with a gentle offshore breeze, it’ll be clean. That swell is going to wrap into the river mouth nicely, but with that long period at a beach break, it might break a little too straight for some. Still, the sets will have some punch.

The absolute standout session? Saturday afternoon, August 8th. Look at this – a 4ft SW swell, 15-second period, offshore E wind at 6 mph, and a combined energy of 570. That’s a solid, clean, proper surf window. The conditions are near-perfect for El Estero. That’s the one you clear your calendar for. The next day, Sunday the 9th, holds decent size at 3ft, but the wind picks up a bit in the morning.

Looking further out, the tail end of the window has another cracker. Saturday morning and afternoon, August 15th, we see a 4-4ft SW swell with a 16-17 second period. The combined energy on the Saturday afternoon session hits 745, with a gentle offshore breeze. That’s a serious, powerful swell. It’s a long way out, so don’t lock it in, but if that holds, it’ll be the best on offer for those who can wait. For beginners, those 4-4ft days will be on the limit, and at 4ft and over, it’s getting more into intermediate and above territory. The longer period stuff at the river mouth will have long lulls between sets, making the paddle out a bit easier, but the waves themselves will have real shape and energy.

There’s a noticeable lull mid-week around the 5th and 6th, where the swell drops to 1-2ft with poor winds, so expect a couple of quiet days. Don't bother paddling out then.

So, for the main takeaway: the best on offer is Saturday, August 8th, with Saturday, August 15th as a promising long-range call. Keep an eye on that wind – when it’s glassy or offshore, this place works a treat.

Rusty.

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