Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s cookin’ for Cox Bay over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and we’ve got a few patient days ahead before anything really gets going.

Right off the bat, the first week is tough to get excited about. From Friday the 3rd through to the 6th, it’s a whole lot of nothing special. We’re lookin' at tiny 2ft to 2ft swell, mostly coming from the SSW, with a messy, crossy wind pattern that’s just not gonna put a smile on your face. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate, barely cracking 300 to 500 (321 to 509). You’ll see some long-period groundswell in there—15 to 16 seconds—which tells you the energy is deep and clean in theory, but at this size it just won’t have any push on the bank. Cox Bay is an exposed beach and point setup, so it's not going to hold that little bump well when the wind is leaning onshore or cross-on. Honestly, the setup on Saturday afternoon looks more interesting for a kite than a paddle.

Then we roll into the start of the second week, and things start to change. Monday morning the 6th is still marginal, but by Tuesday morning, July 7th, we finally see some promise. The wind swings around to an ESE cross-off, cleanin’ things right up, and the swell hangs at a tiny 2ft from the SW with a very long 16-second period. The energy is climbing into the moderate range at 534. It's not big, but that glassy, well-shaped little wave on a clean bank will be a true joy for a quiet, soulful session. Marginal by numbers, but a real little diamond in the rough.

The real standout though, no question, is the end of that week. Saturday morning, July 11th is where it's at. You're gonna wake up to glassy conditions—wind swinging light from the SW and a clean 3ft SSW groundswell at 15 seconds. The combined energy is solid at 569. This is that classic, clean, long-period swell that suits a point break or river mouth better than the beach, and with Cox Bay’s point and beach setup, you’ll find some classic little walls. It’s not big enough to blow you away, but the quality and the quiet will make it the best session of the week. Another good one follows on Sunday morning, July 12th, with more glassy conditions and a 2ft SW swell at 14 seconds (407 energy).

After that, we hit a dry spell through the middle of the week (13th to 14th of July) with small, weak windswell and poor conditions. There’s a decent clean window on Wednesday morning, July 15th with a cross-off wind and 3ft of W swell at 12 seconds (484 energy), but the next true banger is Wednesday afternoon, July 15th. That afternoon suddenly packs a punch: the wind goes glassy again, and the swell jumps to 6ft from the WNW with a short, punchy 7-second period. The energy hits 591. That’s steep, fast, and hollow close to the beach. It's not long-period, so it won’t be as clean or lined up, but for a beach break that size and shape, it’ll be pumping. This one is a serious look for any surfer who knows their local peaks.

And then the forecast gets wild. Thursday, July 16th pushes up to 6ft and then a massive 8ft WNW swell hits in the afternoon (energy a whopping 1724). That’s big, it’s got short 8-second period on the big peak, and the wind is howling onshore at 20 km/h (12 mph). That’s expert-only territory, and more likely a challenge than a treat.

The very tail end of the outlook, Saturday morning, July 18th is a long way out, but it’s promising. Glassy conditions again, with 6ft of WNW swell at 9 seconds (538 energy). If that holds, it could be a gem, but we’re nearly two weeks out, so don’t bank on it yet.

Best on offer? The glassiest mornings on July 11th and July 15th afternoon are your best shots at a true standout session with clean, quality surf.

That’s the long-range look. Get out there when it’s glassy.

- Rusty

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