Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk Cox Bay. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, but there are definitely some windows where it’ll be worth paddling out.

The water temp here is sittin’ right around 58°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year – nothing to write home about, but you won’t need a thick hood just yet.

We kick things off on Monday, July 20th, with a real treat. Early morning, it’s clear skies, a glassy 5 km/h breeze from the WSW, and a clean 2ft swell from the southwest with a very long period of 17 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (432). That long period means the waves will have proper shape and punch, but at a point-and-beach setup like Cox Bay, it might be a bit too lined up and straight. Still, for a beginner-friendly spot, that’s some of the best you’ll see. That glassy wind is a major positive.

Tuesday the 21st is similar in the morning – another glassy one with the same 2ft SW swell, period at 16 seconds, and energy at 316. It’s a repeat of that clean, easy-going vibe. The afternoons this week get a bit rubbish with onshore or cross-onshore winds, so make it a dawn patrol or a morning session.

Wednesday the 22nd sees a shift. The swell bumps up to 4ft from the WNW, but the period drops to just 8 seconds, and it’s a bit lumpy with cross-shore winds. This is short-period, wonky energy – not worth getting excited about.

Now, Thursday the 23rd of July is a real standout. Morning and afternoon both have a clean 4ft swell from the WNW with a 9-second period, and best of all, we get cross-offshore winds from the SSE at 5-10 km/h. That’s the kind of wind that grooms the faces perfectly. The energy is sitting at 446 then 432 – moderate and solid. For a beginner-friendly beach, this is as good as it gets. The crowd factor here is “sometimes,” so you might have a few others out, but it won’t be a circus.

Friday the 24th is interesting. The morning brings a tiny 2ft swell from the SW, but with a very long period of 26 seconds and a massive energy spike of 667. It’s glassy with a SE breeze. That’s a lot of energy for a small wave – it’ll be clean, but the sets will be few and far between. The afternoon turns onshore and messy.

The weekend (25th-26th July) is a write-off with rain and onshore winds. Sunday the 26th afternoon, however, shows a clean 3ft SW swell with a 19-second period and energy of 973 – just shy of the strong category. Moderate rain, but the wind is cross-offshore. That’s a powerful, clean swell. If you don’t mind a little drizzle, it’ll be worth a look.

The following week starts with a glassy Monday morning on the 27th of July – 3ft SW swell, 18-second period, and energy at 620, with light winds. That’s another top-tier morning session. The rest of that week gets blown out or onshore, with a few marginal windows.

The standout for the whole period, though, is that Thursday the 23rd of July. The combination of chest-high, clean swell, light cross-offshore winds, and moderate energy makes it the pick of the bunch. The morning of Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are also top-drawer glassy sessions for the beginner crowd.

After that, you’re looking at a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions from the 28th of July right through to the 4th of August. There are a few glassy mornings in there – like the 30th of July morning with a 3ft SSW swell and 16-second period – but the afternoons are consistently hammered by fresh onshore winds. The 3rd of August morning has a glassy 4ft WNW swell, but it’s short-period (7 seconds) and the afternoon gets blown out. It’s a tough run for consistent surf.

Overall, don’t sleep on the first week. Get out on the 20th, 21st, and especially the 23rd. After that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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