Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, checking in with the full picture for the next couple of weeks.

First off, we’re looking at a pretty slow start here. The model’s showing some small, clean waves early on, but nothing that’s really going to get the heart rate up. The first few days are a bit of a tease. Thursday morning the 16th, we’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the west, with a super long period of 18 seconds, but it’s only got weak energy (267) and the conditions are marginal. It’s not really worth paddling out for. Friday the 17th isn’t much better – a 2ft west swell in the morning, clean from a cross-off wind, but still small. Saturday the 18th picks up a bit to 4ft, but that’s onshore wind and surf quality is poor. A bit of a write-off.

The real action starts to build from the 24th of July. That Friday morning, the 24th, is a genuine standout. We’ve got a 2ft swell from the southwest, but it’s packing a very long period of 26 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The energy is moderate (727), and the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the SSE. It’s going to be clean and lined up. Because of that super long period, this is going to be best at a point or a reef break, not a straight beach. Cox Bay is a beach and point setup, so keep that in mind – the point should handle it beautifully. The water temp is 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

The next day, Saturday the 25th, is another real winner. The morning shows a 2ft southwest swell, still with a long 24-second period, and cross-off winds. The energy is up to a strong 822. Then the afternoon gets even better – it goes glassy, with a 2ft southwest swell and 22-second period. The energy is still strong (817). That afternoon session is going to be pure, smooth, and clean. This is the best on offer, no question.

Sunday the 26th is still okay, with a 3ft southwest swell, but the wind turns cross-shore, so it’s a step down from the glassy perfection of the day before.

Now, look ahead to Monday the 27th. This is a big one for experienced surfers only. The morning shows a 5ft WNW swell, with a period of 10 seconds and an absolutely massive combined energy of 1549. That’s very strong. The wind is glassy – dead calm from the WSW – so it will be clean. But 5ft is getting up there, and with that much energy, it’s going to be powerful. This is for the crew who know what they’re doing. The afternoon drops to 5ft, but the wind turns onshore, so it’s less appealing.

After that, it settles down. The rest of the week into the first of August is small again, with swells under three feet and mostly onshore or cross-shore winds. Nothing to plan a trip around.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off for anything decent. The real standouts are the mornings of Friday the 24th of July and Saturday the 25th of July. The 24th is clean and lined up, and the 25th is an absolute glass-off dream. The 27th is for the big-wave hunters only. The rest of the window is pretty quiet.

Rusty

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