Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, it’s a mixed bag. We’ve got a real long period groundswell pushin’ through Wednesday and Thursday, but the wind is gonna be a problem for most of the opening stretch. The real gold is sittin’ a week away, with a glassy Thursday afternoon that has my mouth watering.

Cox Bay is a beach and point set-up, exposed to the west. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so nothing freaky there.

We start Wednesday morning, the 29th of July. There’s a 4ft swell from the SW but it’s a long period (17 seconds) groundswell. The problem is a 3 mph onshore wind from the WSW. The wave energy is moderate (903) but the onshore wind is gonna mess it up. It’s a marginal session. The afternoon stays onshore, with a 3ft SSW swell, energy dropping to 676.

Thursday the 30th is a step up. Morning brings a 3ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, and the wind switches to a cross-offshore from the SSE, blowing at 6 mph. The energy is still moderate (636) but those cross-off winds will be cleaning it up nicely. This is a good window. The afternoon gets a bit cross-shore, so the morning is the pick.

Friday the 31st keeps the quality going. Light rain on the morning session, but the wind is a clean cross-off from the ESE at 9 mph. The swell is a smaller 2ft from the SW, but with a 15-second period, it’ll have plenty of push. Energy is moderate (547). The afternoon is even better with a 3ft SSW swell and a cross-off SE breeze at 6 mph, giving us clean lines and an energy of 717. This is a solid day.

Now we hit a dry spell. Saturday the 1st of August is a write-off with rain and onshore wind, and Sunday the 2nd is poor with a short, messy 8-second swell. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are also weak and ordinary, with small swell and poor conditions. Tuesday morning the 4th is the only bright spot: glassy, but the swell is tiny (3ft, with only 155 energy). It’s a gap of about four days of poor to no surf.

Then, Wednesday the 5th of August, things get interesting… and a little dangerous. The morning sees a big 10ft swell from the WNW, but it’s only a 9-second period and the wind is light onshore. The energy is very strong (1823). That’s a lot of power, but the onshore wind will make it a beast. This is a big-wave day for experts only. The afternoon is even worse with a 12 mph onshore wind.

The Standout Windows are Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th of August.

Thursday the 6th is the best of the whole forecast. The morning has a 6ft WNW swell (9-second period) with a cross-off SSE breeze at 6 mph. The wave energy is moderate (580) but the wind is doing all the work to make it clean. The afternoon is absolute magic: glassy, with a 6ft WNW swell and 520 energy. It’s clean, lined up, and there’s power in the water. This is the one.

Friday the 7th is also a cracker. The morning has a 5ft WNW swell with a light cross-on wind, but the afternoon goes glassy again with a 5ft WNW swell. The energy is moderate (374) and the glassy conditions will make it super fun. Crowds are a possibility at Cox Bay, so get there early.

The second week looks a bit more average. The swell sticks around but the wind is tricky. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are marginal with cross and onshore winds. The energy is moderate (440-450) but the quality isn’t there. Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th are all onshore or cross-on, with moderate energy, making for ordinary conditions. The 12th of August afternoon sees a new 2ft, 18-second groundswell from the SSW, but a 9 mph onshore wind messes it up. The 13th of August is similar, small and cross-on.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are okay, but the real prize is Thursday the 6th of August. That glassy afternoon with head-high, clean WNW swell is the best on offer. The Friday afternoon is a close second. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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