Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surf crew, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but things are brewing. The standout window is looking like next week, but we’ve got to get through a few quiet days first.

The first real chance for a paddle comes on Monday morning, July 27th. Cox Bay is waking up to a cloudy sky with a 3 ft swell rolling in from the southwest. The period is a massive 18 seconds, which is proper groundswell energy, but it’s a bit cross-off at 12 mph. The water is sitting at 59°, which is pretty normal for this time of year. The combined energy is moderate at 571, so there’s some grunt there, but the scores are low, so it’s a bit questionable. The wind stays cross-off through the afternoon with a 3 ft swell, but it’s not going to be a classic.

Tuesday, July 28th looks a little more promising. The morning brings a 4 ft SW swell with a 19-second period – that’s some serious energy pushing through (1076 combined energy). The wind is light and cross from the south at just 3 mph, which is close to ideal. This is a strong, long-period groundswell, and at a spot like Cox Bay, that long period will be a real treat on the point. It’s a fairly consistent spot, so you’ll get waves, but it’s a beginner-friendly break, so that 4 ft is perfect for learning. The afternoon cleans up with clear skies and a light cross breeze, dropping to 3 ft.

Wednesday, July 29th is a bit of a washout. The morning has a 4 ft swell with a 17-second period, but the wind is onshore from the WSW at 3 mph. The afternoon is worse with a 9 mph onshore breeze. The scores are low, so it’s a miss.

Thursday, July 30th is the pick of the first week. The morning is glassy. The wind is a whisper from the southwest at 3 mph, and the swell is 3 ft from the SSW with a 16-second period. The combined energy is 605, and it’s described as "expect very good surf conditions." This is the one to circle. Clean, glassy conditions with a solid, long-period groundswell. It’s a beginner spot, but this will be a fun, rideable size for everyone.

After that, Friday, July 31st has a 2 ft SW swell with a 15-second period and light cross-off wind in the morning, so it’s clean, but small. The weekend into early next week is pretty quiet with small, weak swells and onshore winds.

Now, hold on to your board, because Sunday, August 2nd brings a shift. The morning shows a 5 ft swell from the WSW, but the period drops to 9 seconds, and the wind is onshore. The afternoon is a 5 ft windswell from the W with a short 8-second period and 9 mph onshore wind. This is messy, choppy stuff. Not great for paddling, but with that size and wind, it’s looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The real big stuff comes in the second week. Friday, August 7th is a warning. The morning has a 7 ft WNW swell, but the period is a short 8 seconds, and the wind is cross-on. The afternoon is a solid 10 ft WNW swell with a massive 1435 combined energy, but the wind is a strong 16 mph cross-on, making it a choppy, lumpy mess. This is expert-only territory if you’re a masochist, but honestly, it’s going to be a washing machine.

Saturday, August 8th is a bit better. The morning has a 8 ft WNW swell (8 seconds) with a light cross wind from the SSW at 3 mph. The combined energy is 1197. The wind is better, but the short period at that size will be a big, steep, and fast wall. The afternoon is a 10 ft swell with onshore wind, so it’s blown out again.

After that, the swell drops off rapidly. Sunday, August 9th sees a 2 ft SSW swell with a long 18-second period and light cross wind, but it’s small. The following Monday and Tuesday bring a pulse of 4 ft to 5 ft W and WNW swell with a 10-second period, but the winds are mostly onshore, so it’s not worth the hype.

So, the true standout is Thursday morning, July 30th at Cox Bay. Get it while it’s glassy. The long-range promise of Saturday, August 8th is there for the big-wave crew, but it’s a gamble with the wind.

Stay stoked, stay safe.

Rusty

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