Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gather 'round, folks. Rusty here. Let's take a proper look at what's shaping up for Cox Bay over the next couple of weeks. We've got a bit of a mixed bag, so let's get into it.

Right off the bat, the water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 55°F. That's a degree or two chillier than what we're used to, so you might want to factor that into your wetsuit choice.

The weekend starts off with a glimmer of hope. On Saturday morning, July 11th, we've got a smooth 3ft swell rolling in from the SSW with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 574. It's a bit cloudy, with a light cross-shore breeze, so it's not the cleanest, but it's ridable. The real standout is Saturday afternoon. The wind goes glassy, flat calm, and the swell holds at 3ft from the SSW. That's a recipe for some seriously clean, fun waves. The score is low, but the conditions are great for a beginner-friendly spot like Cox Bay. Don't expect barrels, but do expect a long, smooth ride.

Sunday, July 12th, is a write-off. The morning has a stiff cross-offshore wind that'll chop things up, and by the afternoon the wind is straight onshore, killing any chance of a decent wave. Monday, July 13th, has a glassy morning again with a smaller 2ft SSW swell, but it's a bit weak. The afternoon turns messy with a cross-onshore wind. The next several days, from Tuesday the 14th through to the end of the week, are dominated by small, short-period, onshore wind slop. We're talking about a solid run of poor conditions with a lot of wind from the west and northwest, and the swell period dropping to 7-9 seconds. It's a complete blank for quality surf.

The following week, from about Saturday July 18th, the swell bumps up a bit, hitting 5ft to 8ft, and eventually 7ft. But the catch is the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, and the period is a short 7-8 seconds. This is going to be a wind-blown mess. The combined energy gets up there, hitting 983 on the 18th afternoon, but it's all raw, unorganized power. Honestly, with that much onshore wind and a beach break, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It's too big and messy for a beginner and not clean enough for an expert.

There is a late-breaking glimmer. On Saturday, July 25th, the afternoon shows a cleaner, much longer period swell from the SW at 21 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 1639, indicating strong energy. The swell height is a manageable 3ft. But the wind is a moderate cross-onshore, so it's not clean. Then on Sunday, July 26th, the morning has a 3ft SW swell with a 20-second period and a lighter onshore wind. The energy is still very strong at 1030. This is a promising, long-range possibility, but it's a long way out and the winds are still not ideal. For a point break or reef, this would be a dream, but at a beach break like Cox Bay, that very long period might make the waves break a bit too straight.

So, the best on offer is that glassy Saturday afternoon, July 11th. The other promising window is at the very end of the forecast, around July 25th and 26th, but it's a long way off and the wind is a question mark. Keep your eyes on that one.

Rusty.

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