Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our little corner of the coast, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a stretch coming up with some clean windows, but we’ll need to be patient. The first real action worth paddling out for is this weekend, and then there’s a long quiet spell before a bigger pulse shows up about a week and a half from now.

Let’s kick it off at Cox Bay, which is a beach and point setup. The water’s sitting at a bit of a cooler 55°, which is about two and a half degrees colder than what’s normal for this time of year, so you might want the thicker rubber.

The action starts Saturday morning, July 11th. We’ve got clean 3 ft of swell pushing in from the SSW with a long 15-second period. That’s some proper groundswell energy, and with a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSE, it’s going to be tidy. The combined energy is moderate at 506 to 574. This is the standout of the weekend. The waves will have shape and power, and the wind is making it glassy. A good one for a decent crew, but with it being a fairly consistent spot, it shouldn't be a fight.

Sunday, July 12th keeps the fun going with a similar 2 ft swell from the SW. The morning session is the call, with the same clean cross-off breeze. The energy drops a little to 378, but it’ll still be fun on the longboards or a fish.

Now, here’s the thing: after Sunday, the surf peters out fast. From Monday, July 13th all the way through to Thursday, July 17th, the swell fades to ankle-snappers at 1 ft to 2 ft, and the wind is mostly onshore or poor. A few of those days we get a lighter cross-shore breeze, but the energy is too weak to get excited about. It’s a proper flat spell.

We get a slight tease on Sunday, July 19th with a jump to 4 ft, but that swell is short-period at just 7 seconds. It’s a wind-swell with no grunt, and the wind is onshore by the afternoon. Kite surfers might get a look, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a miss.

Now, for the real highlight of the whole forecast—mark your calendar for Monday morning, July 20th. Holy mackerel, this is the one. The charts are showing a clean 2 ft swell, but don't let the height fool you. It’s coming from the SW with a very long 18-second period, and the combined energy is solid at 488. The best part? The wind is completely glassy. Dead calm. That long-period groundswell will wrap into Cox Bay with some beautiful, lined-up waves. It’s a bit smaller, so it’ll be super manageable for everyone, and the conditions should be pristine. This is our top call.

After Monday, things get a bit messy. Tuesday, July 21st through Wednesday, July 22nd sees the swell jump up to 6 ft to 7 ft, with the combined energy hitting a strong 1198 on Wednesday morning. That’s a lot of juice, but it’s all short-period (8 seconds) wind-swell. With mostly cross-onshore or onshore winds, it’s going to be bumpy and hard to control. That size is getting into advanced territory, and with the poor wind, it’s a no-go for a good wave. The middle of that week is onshore trash, and then we fade back into small, choppy surf through to the end of the outlook. The long-range stuff around July 24th and 25th is small and wind-affected, nothing to plan a trip around.

So, in short: hit Saturday morning and Sunday morning this weekend for clean, fun waves, and then the absolute jewel is Monday morning, July 20th for glassy, long-period rollers. The rest is filler.

Rusty.

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