Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get right into it. The next couple of weeks are gonna be a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some clean windows, but we’re also gonna have to sit through some slop to get to the good stuff. Right now, the surf is pretty small and weak. We’re looking at a slow start, then a bit of a pulse of energy mid-period, but the standout window is further out, so keep that in mind.

Sunday the 9th is basically a write-off. There’s a tiny bit of knee-high swell, but it’s lined up wrong, and the wind is crossing it up. Not worth getting wet for. The water temp at Cox Bay is sitting at 60°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th are similar – small, weak, and a bit all over the place. We’re talking ankle-biters with poor shape. You’re better off doing something else with your time. This is a quiet stretch to start.

Wednesday the 12th afternoon is where things get a little more interesting. The swell jumps to 5ft, but the period drops right out to 7 seconds. That’s short-period windswell, and it’s coming straight onshore. It’s gonna be a bit lumpy and disorganized. Still, there’s more energy in the water (444 combined), so it’s not totally dead, but it’s not great either.

Now, Thursday the 13th morning is a real bright spot in this otherwise slow start. We get a clean 4ft of west-northwest swell with a light offshore wind. The water’s clean, and it’s got a bit of push to it. This is probably your best bet for the first week.

The next few days, Friday the 14th through to Sunday the 16th, are all in that 2ft to 3ft range. It’s small, but there are some glassy windows, especially Friday afternoon and Sunday morning where the wind goes totally glassy. If you’ve got a longboard, those will be fun, playful sessions. The energy is moderate, but the quality is there when the wind plays nice.

Then comes the real standout of the whole forecast. The week of the 17th and 18th. Monday the 17th is looking like the pick of the bunch. We’ve got 3ft of south-southwest swell, a 16-second period, and glassy conditions all day. That’s a proper, clean groundswell. The energy is strong (515 to 587), and with those light winds, Cox Bay (Tofino) is gonna have some fun, rippable waves. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

Tuesday the 18th sees the swell start to build, hitting 4ft in the morning and 5ft in the afternoon. The period drops a bit to 13 seconds, but there’s a lot more energy in the water (782 to 888). However, the wind switches onshore, so it’s gonna get a bit messier. There’s power there, but it won’t be as clean as Monday.

Wednesday the 19th keeps that size, but the onshore wind gets stronger, so it’s going to be a bit of a battle. Not great for the lineup.

After that, we see a bit of a drop-off. Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st are back down to 3ft, with Friday morning looking glassy again. A few fun ones to be had if you’re keen.

The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd is a bit of a dud, with small, weak surf and poor winds.

Now, here’s the long-range promise. The very end of the forecast, on Monday the 24th, looks like it could be a proper pulse. We’re looking at 5ft in the morning, jumping to 7ft in the afternoon. That’s a significant size jump. The period is still short (7 seconds), so it’s windswell, but with that much energy (840 combined), it’s going to be powerful. That’s a couple of weeks away though, and with the short period, it might be more of a close-out at the beach. It could be a bit much for a beginner, definitely. That one’s for the experienced crew. It’s promising, but we’ll have to see how it shapes up.

Overall, the best surf on offer is that Monday the 17th. Glassy, clean, and with a nice long-period groundswell. That’s your standout. The other one to watch is the big pulse on the 24th, but that comes with a size and wind caveat. So, keep your expectations in check for the early days, and be ready to paddle out when that Monday rolls around.

Rusty.

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