Cox Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Cox Bay. This is all about that classic West Coast swell window, and we’ve got a bit of a slow start before some real juice shows up.

The Overall Pattern

Right now, it’s a waiting game. The first few days are small but with some real quality in the windows. The real standout action is a long way off, on the 19th of September, where we’re looking at a proper pulse of energy that’ll have the bay firing. A lot of the middle period is a mix of onshore junk and small, marginal waves, so pick your sessions carefully.

The Breakdown

Friday, September 4th & Saturday, September 5th: We’re off to a humble start. Friday afternoon sees a clean 2 ft SSW groundswell rolling in with a very long 18-second period. The water is a mild 59°, dead average for this time of year. The big news is the glassy conditions – dead calm wind. That’s a major positive. You’ll be surfing a clean, long-period swell that will have some real push to it. Saturday morning, the wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NE, keeping the 3 ft SSW swell clean. This is a solid, if small, opening to the forecast.

Sunday, September 6th: Another morning window. Glassy conditions with a 3 ft SSW swell. The period is dropping a bit to 16 seconds, but it’s still a groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (451). A good little session before the wind turns onshore in the afternoon.

Monday, September 7th & Tuesday, September 8th: The quality drops off. Winds go onshore or cross-shore, and the swell period shortens. The surf stays small, around 2 ft to 2 ft. It’s a bit of a write-off for the paddle surfer, with the wave energy falling to weak levels (206).

Wednesday, September 9th through Friday, September 11th: More of the same messy onshore conditions. The swell gets a bit of a kick on Friday the 11th with a 5 ft WNW swell, but the period is a short 10 seconds and the wind is a cross-onshore 15 km/h. The energy is moderate (754), but it’s going to be choppy and poor quality. Not the one.

Saturday, September 12th: A small window of hope. Saturday afternoon, the wind goes glassy again, and we get a clean 3 ft WNW swell. The period is short at 9 seconds, but the glassy conditions will make it rideable and fun.

Sunday, September 13th: A solid end to the first week. Clean conditions with a light cross-offshore breeze and glassy surf in the afternoon. The swell is small (2 ft) from the SW, but the energy is moderate (288) and the conditions are clean. A good day for a longboard.

Monday, September 14th & Tuesday, September 15th: The wind cranks up onshore, blowing 20 to 30 km/h from the WNW. The surf is tiny and blown out. A perfect time to do something else.

Wednesday, September 16th & Thursday, September 17th: The wind finally turns favourable again. A light cross-offshore from the ESE and SSE keeps the waves clean. The swell builds nicely. Thursday the 17th is the real precursor to the big stuff. By Thursday afternoon, we’ve got a 6 ft WNW swell rolling in with a 10-second period, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 980. The wind is offshore from the East at 10 km/h. This is clean, punchy and solid. Get on it.

The Standout – Friday, September 18th & Saturday, September 19th: This is the big one. Friday the 18th stays solid with 4 ft WNW swell and moderate offshore winds from the East all day. The energy is moderate (394-407), but the conditions are clean and consistent.

But the real highlight is Saturday, September 19th, in the morning. This is the best on offer. The forecast shows a 8 ft WNW swell, with the combined energy hitting a very strong 1443. The wind is completely glassy – dead calm. For a setup like Cox Bay, which is a beach and point, this kind of long-period groundswell can be a bit straight, but the sheer size and power will be undeniable. This is 8 ft, so it’s expert territory. The crowd will be on it, but for those with the skills, this is a proper day. The energy drops off in the afternoon as the wind goes cross-onshore, so the morning window is the golden ticket.

So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are a slow burn with a few quality windows, but the 17th through the 19th of September is where you want to burn your leave. The 19th is the standout, but it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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