Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

The immediate outlook is a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s some real gold hiding in the back half of the forecast. We’ve got a slow start, with a few days of marginal conditions before the ocean starts to wake up. The standout window is definitely the first week of August, with a couple of sessions that are going to be worth circling on the calendar.

Right now, the only game in town is Baya Reef. This is a reef break for advanced surfers, and it’s consistent, which means it has a shot at picking up the swell. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprise there.

Wednesday 22 July kicks things off with a small 3ft SSW swell, but it’s got a period of 13 seconds, so there’s some push behind it. The morning looks clean with a cross-off SE breeze at 12 mph. The combined swell energy is moderate at 448. It’s marginal, but if you’re desperate, the morning session is the only window before the wind picks up and trashes it.

Thursday 23 July is a step up in size but not in quality. The morning has a 7ft SSE swell, which is getting into the “too big for beginners” range, and it’s a short period of 9 seconds. The energy is a solid 1196, but with a 16 mph cross-off wind, it’s going to be lumpy. The afternoon is a washout with fresh cross-shore wind.

Friday 24 July and Saturday 25 July follow a similar pattern: chest to head-high swell (6ft and 6ft) with short periods and moderate cross-off breezes. The energy is moderate, around 900, but it’s just kinda messy. The mornings are the only chance, and even then, it’s a marginal call.

We hit a bit of a lull from Sunday 26 July through to Tuesday 29 July. The swell drops right off, with the energy falling to the 300-700 range. The wind is light, but the waves are small and weak. A 2ft SW groundswell on Sunday morning with a 13-second period is tidy, but there’s just not enough power to get excited about. These are the days to maybe tune the wax off the rails.

Now, Wednesday 30 July is where things start to get interesting. The morning shows a 3ft SSW groundswell with a very long period of 19 seconds. The energy is a strong 1158. The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-shore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy but rideable. This is a long-period groundswell, so at a reef break like Baya Reef, it’s going to line up and offer some proper walls. It’s a decent looking day, but the real standouts are still a few days away.

The best on offer is Tuesday 4 August. The morning session is the one. We’ve got an 8ft SSW groundswell. That’s big, expert-only territory. The period is a very long 18 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 4200, which is strong to very strong. The wind is glassy—a total glass-off. This is excellent surf, and the conditions are going to be perfect. The sets will be clean, powerful, and lined up perfectly on the reef. This is a session for the experienced crew only.

Thursday 6 August is another standout. The morning shows a 7ft SSW groundswell with another very long 18-second period. The wind is glassy again, and the energy is 2705. It’s a touch smaller than Tuesday, but still a solid expert wave. The conditions are going to be pristine, with clean, glassy faces.

For the rest of the first week of August, the swell stays solid in the 5ft to 6ft range, but the wind is a bit more onshore or cross-shore, so the quality drops off. The mornings are the best bet, but the afternoons get messy with fresh breezes and the risk of thunderstorms.

So, to wrap it up: the next week is a slow grind of marginal surf. The real glory is the first few days of August. Tuesday 4 August and Thursday 6 August mornings are the absolute best sessions. If you’re an advanced surfer, that’s your window. The glassy conditions and that big, long-period groundswell are going to be worth the wait.

Rusty.

Read more