Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve only got one spot on the radar for this whole stretch, and that’s Baya Reef. This is an advanced-level reef break, and it’s consistently exposed to the swell. The water is sitting at 77°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – you’ll feel that nip after a long session.

Right off the bat, we’re starting on Monday the 14th. The swell is a solid 6ft from the SW with a very long period of 16 seconds. This is proper groundswell, and at a reef like Baya, that’s going to hold up nicely and give you some real power. The combined energy is 1537 (moderate), and there’s a light cross-onshore breeze that’s keeping things just a little bumpy on the surface. It’s not perfect, but it’s surfable.

Tuesday the 15th looks similar – 6ft SW at 15 seconds, but the wind is a bit stronger and more cross-shore, creating a slight chop. Tuesday afternoon gets worse with the wind picking up to 19 mph, making it lumpy. Not the day to get excited about.

Wednesday the 16th through to Friday the 18th sees the swell slowly dropping from 5ft down to 4ft. Periods are still decent – 14 to 15 seconds – but the wind stays crummy, mostly cross-shore, and even gets fresh on Wednesday and Friday afternoons. The energy drops from 1268 down to 776 (weak), and conditions are just marginal. Not worth paddling out for most of us.

Saturday the 19th offers a slight flicker of hope in the morning with 5ft SSW swell and a 15-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore. Energy bumps back up to 1408 (moderate). But it’s still cross-shore and not clean.

Then we hit Sunday the 20th, and this is where things get interesting. We’ve got 7ft of SW groundswell rolling in with a 16-second period. The combined energy jumps to 2122 (strong) – there’s some real grunt behind it. The wind is only a light cross-onshore, so while it’s not glassy, the conditions will be better than they’ve been. This is the standout of the first week. The size is up, the power is up, and Baya Reef loves a SW swell like this.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd are smaller and less exciting. Swell drops to 4ft by Tuesday, and the wind stays cross-shore. The energy falls right off.

Wednesday the 23rd brings another pulse – 6ft SSW at 16 seconds, energy at 1743 (moderate-to-strong). But the wind is 19 mph on the afternoon, so morning is your only window before it gets lumpy.

Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th are average at best. Swell sits around 5ft to 5ft, but the wind is often 16-19 mph. Not pretty.

Now, a long-range heads-up: Sunday the 27th of September. This is the standout of the entire forecast. We’re looking at a 10ft SSW swell with a 19-second period. That’s a very long period groundswell, and at this size, it’s expert territory only. Combined energy hits 5493 (very strong). The wind in the morning is a light cross-onshore, so it won’t be glassy, but it’ll be far cleaner than the afternoons. This is a serious swell. If you’ve got the skill, this is the one to circle on your calendar. Just be aware – long period swells like this can break a bit too straight on some setups, but at a reef like Baya, that power will be channeled nicely.

Monday the 28th has a solid 7ft hangover swell, but the excitement fades after that. Tuesday the 29th drops back to 5ft with cross-shore winds.

Overall, if you’re after a decent session, Sunday the 20th and Sunday the 27th are your best bets. The 27th is the real heavy hitter, but keep an eye on the wind as we get closer.

Stay stoked, and don't get caught inside on that 10ft day.

Rusty.

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