Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Overall, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming through, but the wind is the main player here, and it’s going to be fighting us a lot of the time. The water temp is sitting at 82°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The best window looks to be the last few days of July and into the start of August, with a real standout session on the morning of Friday the 31st.

Let’s break it down. Starting Thursday the 16th, we’ve got a 4ft SW swell with a 14-second period, but the cross-shore SSE wind at 16 mph is going to chop it up. It’s a tough one to get excited about. That pattern sticks around through the weekend and into the early part of the next week. The swell ticks up a bit – Monday the 20th sees a 7ft SSW swell, but it’s paired with a fresh 22 mph cross-shore wind, making it messy. The wave energy is moderate (689 to 1923), but the quality just isn’t there.

We get a bit of a reprieve on the mornings of the 21st, 22nd, and 23rd, with a cleaner cross-offshore wind from the SE. The swell is there, around 3ft to 7ft, but the period is shorter, dropping to 8-9 seconds, which means less push and more chopped-up lines. The morning of the 24th is a decent shout – 7ft SSE swell, 9-second period, and a gentle 9 mph cross-offshore breeze. It’s clean, but the short period means it’s not the best shape.

Now, the standout. Saturday the 25th morning. This is the one. Clear skies, a 6ft SSE swell, gentle 9 mph SE cross-offshore wind, and the wave comment says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. The energy is strong (1125). This is your call to get out there. The swell direction is lining up with the spot’s optimum (SSE), and the wind is doing us a favour. The water is warm, the wave energy is solid, and it’s clean. With crowds listed as “sometimes”, you might have a few others out, but the quality should make up for it.

After that, we drift back into a pattern of lumpy afternoons and cleaner mornings, but the swell size drops. The 31st of July is a real mystery. The morning brings a 5ft SW swell with a massive 22-second period. That’s a very long period groundswell, and the energy is through the roof (4076). The wind is only 3 mph and cross-shore, so it’ll be glassy and clean. This is a serious setup for a reef break like Baya Reef, as the long period will really wrap in. The only issue is it’s a long way out, so file it under promising but not certain. The afternoon sees the swell bump to 6ft with a 20-second period, but the wind picks up to 12 mph, chopping it a bit.

Bottom line: The best surf on offer is the morning of Saturday the 25th of July with that clean SSE swell, and the long-range, high-energy window on the morning of Friday the 31st of July is a massive potential highlight if it all comes together.

Rusty.

Read more