Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

The opening window is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid pulse of south-west groundswell rolling in, but the wind is going to be a problem for much of the first week. The standout is a very specific morning session at Baya Reef on Saturday, July 11th.

Baya Reef is a consistent exposed reef break, mainly for advanced surfers. It loves a south-west swell, and the combined energy on Thursday morning, July 9th, is pumping strong at 1356. The swell is 5 ft from the SSW, with a long 14-second period, which is classy groundswell. The morning starts with a gentle cross-offshore breeze, keeping things clean. But by Thursday afternoon a fresh cross-shore wind kicks up to 19 mph, bringing lumpy chop.

Friday, July 10th, is a write-off. The morning has a light cross-shore but the report labels it marginal. The afternoon gets a moderate cross-shore chop with a 6 ft SW swell, but the winds are too strong for paddle surfing.

Now, Saturday, July 11th morning is the pick of the entire outlook. The wind drops to glassy – 3 mph from the SSE. The swell is a clean 5 ft from the SW, with a 14-second period providing real power. The combined energy is moderate at 782, but the conditions are described as "glassy" and "expect very good surf conditions." This is the one to circle. The reef should handle that long-period swell beautifully, offering good, walled-up lines. The crowd factor is "sometimes," so you might have a few others out, but it won’t be a zoo.

The afternoon of the 11th gets chopped out again, and the rest of the week is a similar story. Sunday morning, July 12th, is another glassy start with a smaller 3 ft SW swell, but the energy drops to 331. It’s clean, but small.

The pattern repeats into the next week. There’s a promising window on Saturday, July 18th morning. The swell is 4 ft from the SW, wind is a light cross-offshore from the SE, and the combined energy is strong at 1288. The report says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That’s a solid call, but it’s over a week away, so treat it as promising but not locked in.

The long-range part of the outlook is messy. The wind is cross-shore for most afternoons, and the morning windows are often marginal. There’s a slight chance on Thursday, July 23rd, and Friday, July 24th mornings, but the swell is small (3 ft) and the energy is weak. The 24th morning has a light cross-offshore and a clean report, but it’s a small wave day.

Overall, the best bet is this Saturday morning, July 11th, at Baya Reef. Get it while it’s glassy. The second week looks rough, but mark that 18th of July morning.

Rusty, signing off.

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