Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a 16-day window on the cards, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The main draw is Baya Reef, a solid reef break that needs a bit of patience. The water temperature is sitting at 82°, which is just about normal for this time of year, so nothing wild there.

The pattern starts off a little average. The first few days are dominated by a consistent cross-shore wind that really messes with the surface. Thursday the 15th through to the 18th sees swell hovering around 4ft to 5ft from the SSW, with periods around 14 to 16 seconds, which is a nice long-period groundswell. But that wind is the problem – it’s mostly a moderate to fresh breeze from the SSE, keeping things lumpy and cross-chop. The combined energy is moderate, sitting around 682 to 958, so there’s push, but the conditions are just not playing ball. The morning of Friday the 17th is a tease – a light breeze, 5ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, and energy jumping to 1098, but the wave comment says it’s still marginal due to tide. That’s our first real standout if you can work the tide windows.

The weekend is a write-off for clean waves. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are plagued by the same cross-shore wind, with the afternoon sessions being particularly poor. Sunday afternoon does have a big 17-second period and 4ft swell, but the fresh breeze just kills it.

Then we hit Monday the 20th. The morning sees a solid 7ft SSW swell at 16 seconds, with energy reading 2054 – that’s moderate-to-strong energy. But the wind is still cross-shore, and the surf is messy. This is moving into the "too big for beginners" territory, and the conditions are holding it back from being a classic. The afternoon takes a similar note.

Tuesday the 21st is a bit of a letdown. The morning has 5ft and 1000 energy, but again, that cross-shore wind. The afternoon is a total loss.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout window is the morning of Wednesday the 22nd through to the morning of Friday the 24th. We see a shift in the wind to a cross-offshore direction from the SE. The morning of the 22nd has 3ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, and the conditions are described as clean. The combined energy is 621, so it’s not huge, but the glassy, clean conditions will make this reef fire. The morning of the 23rd is even smaller at 3ft, but still clean. The real gem is the morning of the 24th – 5ft swell from the SSE, but the period drops to 8 seconds, which is short-period wind swell. The energy is 620, and it’s clean. This is a short window of glory, but it’s the best on offer.

After that, we’re back to messy afternoons. The morning of Saturday the 25th has 5ft from the SE, but it’s back to cross-shore winds and marginal conditions. The 26th and 27th see a drop in energy, with the morning of the 26th offering a clean 2ft SSW swell – fun for a grovel, but not a standout.

The last week is a bit of a guessing game. The morning of Wednesday the 30th has a solid 5ft SW swell with a long 18-second period, and energy jumping to 2028. That’s a powerful, long-period groundswell. But it’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. The wind is still a gentle cross-shore, so it might be decent if it cleans up.

Overall, there’s a run of about 5 days in the middle where the wind finally cooperates for a few hours each morning. The best of the best is that Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th morning window. If you’re an advanced surfer, the 20th and 30th have the size, but you’ll be battling the chop. The period is long, so this reef break will handle it well, but the beach breaks might be too walled.

Rusty out.

Read more