Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

We’ve got a solid run of south swell lining up for Baya Reef, but you’ll have to be patient and keep your expectations in check. The whole 16-day window is a slow burn, with waves on offer pretty much every day, but the quality is a mixed bag.

First thing you need to know is the water. It’s sitting at 82°F for the first session, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The standout period looks like the morning of Tuesday, August 19th. We’ve got a solid 8ft SSW groundswell with a long 17-second period pushing in. The combined energy is strong at 4293, meaning there’s some serious power in the water. But here’s the catch – the wind is a light cross-shore from the SSE, which will keep the surface clean enough for an advanced crew. This is a reef break, so that long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely, but it’s a spot for experienced surfers only. At 8ft, it’s pushing into expert territory.

Another session worth circling is the afternoon of Monday, August 18th. The swell is 7ft from the SSW with a 19-second period, and the combined energy hits 5150 – that’s the most powerful reading of the whole window. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it won’t be glassy, but the energy is there. It’s another one for the advanced crowd.

Now, if you’re looking for a cleaner window, the morning of Friday, August 21st is your best bet. Swell is a bit smaller at 8ft from the SSW, but the wind switches to a light cross-offshore from the SE. That’s a major positive – it’ll groom the waves nicely. The combined energy is still decent at 2784. This is probably the most user-friendly of the bigger days for a strong intermediate, but be aware this spot can get crowded at times, and it’s an advanced reef.

For the rest of the window, we’re looking at a lot of 5ft to 7ft days with mostly cross-shore winds. The first week is plagued by moderate to fresh cross-shore breezes, leaving a lot of chop on the surface. The mornings are generally your best chance for cleaner conditions. The second week looks a bit more promising, with the cross-offshore winds appearing on the 21st and 22nd, but the swell drops off a bit. By the 23rd and 24th, the swell is smaller and the wind gets messy again.

Don’t bother with the afternoons, especially early on – the wind picks up and the wave comment is nearly always "marginal." There are a few zeros in the second week, which is a sign of poor surf conditions.

So, bottom line: the best bets are the morning of the 19th for raw power, and the morning of the 21st for cleaner conditions. Hold out for one of those windows.

Rusty.

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