Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about this stretch of swell headed our way. It’s not looking like a classic, but there’s a pulse of solid groundswell building for the weekend that’s got potential if you pick your moment. The wind is the main story here – it’s almost always cross-shore or stronger, and that’s going to chop things up. The water’s sitting at about 81.1°F with a tiny anomaly, so it’s your standard warm bath for this time of year.

Baya Reef is the only break on the menu, and it’s a consistent reef setup for advanced surfers. The swell direction is mostly from the SSW and SW, which is what this spot likes to see. Don’t expect many clean windows, but there are a couple of mornings that might just line up.

We kick off Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th, but honestly, it’s a write-off. The wind is cross and blowing 15.5 to 18.6 mph, with a messy cross-chop. The swell is small – around 3.3 ft to 4.3 ft from the SW with a period of 13 to 14 seconds. The combined energy is weak to moderate (728 to 606). You’d be fighting a losing battle. Skip these days.

Saturday the 5th morning is the first real standout. The wind turns cross-offshore from the SSE at 12.4 mph, and the ocean cleans right up. Swell picks up to 4.6 ft from the SSW, and the period jumps to 16 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell pushing through with moderate energy (1220). The reef will handle that long period nicely, giving you some well-shaped, peeling waves. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have a few others out, but nothing mental. This is your best window early on. Saturday afternoon, forget it – wind howls to 24.9 mph and the cross-chop is back.

Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th have more swell, around 5.6 ft from the SSW, with periods of 16 to 17 seconds, but the wind is cross and strong – 15.5 to 21.7 mph. The energy is building (1491 to 1902), but it’s lumpy and messy. Marginal at best.

Tuesday the 8th morning sees the swell nudge up to 4.9 ft from the SSW with a 18-second period, and the wind is light at 9.3 mph cross-shore. The water is glassy with a gentle cross-chop – this is another sneaky good session. The combined energy is strong (2017), so there’s power in the water. Tuesday afternoon gets bigger (7.9 ft from the SSW), but the wind jumps to 18.6 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. That size is getting into expert territory for the reef.

Wednesday the 9th through to Friday the 11th is a mixed bag. Swell hangs around 5.2 ft to 6.6 ft from the SSW and SW, with periods of 15 to 16 seconds, but the wind stays cross or cross-shore at 9.3 to 21.7 mph. The energy is solid (1544 to 2276), but it’s never totally clean. Mornings with lighter winds (9.3 mph) are your best bet, and the combined energy is moderate to strong.

Saturday the 12th sees a drop in swell to 3.9 ft to 4.6 ft from the SW, but the period on Saturday afternoon stretches to 19 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, which might make the reef a bit tricky but also means long, walled-up lines if the tide is right. The wind is cross-shore at 12.4 to 15.5 mph, so it’s not pristine. Energy is moderate (1019 to 1919).

Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th have solid swell again – 4.6 ft to 6.2 ft from the SW, with periods of 16 to 18 seconds. The combined energy is strong (1670 to 1922). The wind is cross-shore, 9.3 to 15.5 mph. Mornings with 9.3 mph offer a better chance of something halfway decent, but it’s not a standout.

Later in the second week, Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th, the swell eases a bit to 4.6 ft to 5.9 ft from the SW and SSW, with periods of 14 to 15 seconds. The wind is lighter – 6.2 to 12.4 mph – but still cross-shore. There’s the risk of thunderstorms, but the water is calmer. Energy is moderate (1078 to 1401). Not a total write-off, but nothing to get hyped about.

Thursday the 17th morning has a light wind of 3.1 mph from the S, cross-shore, with a 5.9 ft swell from the SSW at

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