Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve got the scoop on this stretch of coast. We’re looking at Baya Reef, a consistent reef break that’s best for advanced surfers, with an optimum swell direction from the SW. Right now, the water’s sitting at 28°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year—no drama there.

The outlook kicks off Sunday, 16 August, but honestly, it’s a bit of a slow starter. We’ve got a SSW swell around 5 ft, but the wind is cross-on from the SSW at 6 mph, making for some light wind ripples. The combined swell energy is moderate at 1120, and the period’s a solid 15 seconds, so there’s some grunt, but the conditions are marginal. It’s not a write-off, but it’s not firing. The afternoon gets worse with a cross-shore chop and stronger wind, so don’t rush out.

Monday, 17 August, and Tuesday, 18 August, are similar—cross-shore winds, light chop, and swell hanging around 4 ft to 7 ft. The energy picks up nicely on Tuesday morning to 2234, with a long 16-second period, but the wind’s still cross, so it’s messy. Not a standout.

Then comes the real highlight: Wednesday, 19 August, morning. The swell jumps to 8 ft from the SSW, with a very long 18-second period and combined energy of 4354—that’s strong. The wind is light and cross from the S at 6 mph, keeping things cleaner than the rest of the week. This is a big, powerful groundswell, and for a reef like Baya, that’s where it shines. But at 8 ft, it’s expert territory—beginners, stay away. The afternoon stays solid at 10 ft and 4931 energy, but the wind picks up to moderate cross, so the morning is the call.

Thursday, 20 August, morning holds around 8 ft with a 16-second period and 3100 energy, and a gentle cross-shore breeze. It’s still good for experts, but the wind’s a bit more on it. The rest of the week into Friday, 21 August, and Saturday, 22 August, sees the swell ease slightly to 6 ft to 8 ft, with light cross winds in the mornings—decent, but not as punchy as Wednesday.

There’s a gap in the standouts after that. From Sunday, 23 August, through Tuesday, 25 August, the swell drops to 4 ft to 6 ft, and winds get stronger, building a lumpy cross-chop. The energy falls to below 2000, and the conditions are marginal to poor. Wednesday, 26 August, is flat with 3 ft to 3 ft—not worth a paddle.

But hold on, Thursday, 27 August, morning brings a shift: the wind turns cross-offshore from the SE at 12 mph, and the swell from the SW is 5 ft with a 16-second period and 1276 energy. The wind comment says “clean,” and that’s a rare bright spot in the second week. It’s a smaller, cleaner session compared to the big stuff earlier.

The later days from Friday, 28 August, to Monday, 31 August, see the swell building again, especially on Monday, 31 August, morning: 7 ft from the SW, 16-second period, 3417 energy, and a light cross breeze. That’s promising for the long-range, but with more uncertainty. The standout is still Wednesday, 19 August, morning—that’s the one to circle on the calendar. The mornings are your best bet throughout, as afternoons get wrecked by stronger cross-shore winds.

Rusty.

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