Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Baya Reef over the next couple of weeks. This is a solid, consistent reef break that’s best for the experienced crew – it’s an advanced wave, exposed to the south-west swell, and it gets its best lines when the swell comes straight out of the SW. Water temp is sitting around 84°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year. Don’t expect a mellow crowd, it can get busy sometimes, so pick your session wisely.

The coming days are a mixed bag. Thursday afternoon (9 July) kicks off with a bit of lumpy 6 ft SSW swell and a nasty 19 mph cross-breeze – not worth paddling out. Friday (10 July) stays marginal: clean-ish early morning with a light S breeze and a 6 ft SSW groundswell (15-second period), but it gets choppy later. Honestly, everything up to Saturday morning (11 July) is just so-so.

The first true standout hits Saturday morning (11 July). We’ve got a light SE cross-offshore breeze keeping the 5 ft SW swell (14-second period) clean and tidy. The combined energy is moderate (708), but the wind and direction line up, giving you smooth faces with a bit of push. It’s not huge, but for an advanced reef, that swell size (5 ft) is perfect for a fun session without being a handful. Crowds will be there, but the quality should make it worthwhile.

Sunday morning (12 July) goes glassy – just a whisper of wind from the SSW, but the swell drops to 3 ft (12-second period) with weak energy (332). Flat-ish but silky smooth if you're desperate for a longboard. After that we get a few days of choppier cross-wind conditions through the week, with the swell bouncing between 4 ft and 6 ft and the wind mostly cross or cross-shore. Nothing to get excited about.

Now, if you’re looking ahead, mark Monday 20 July on your calendar. That morning is the real gem of the outlook. Clean conditions thanks to a light SE cross-offshore breeze, a solid 6 ft SSW groundswell (15-second period), and strong combined energy (1593). It’s an expert-only wave at that size – too much juice for beginners, but for the experienced surfer it’s firing. The swell direction is spot-on for the reef, and the long period (15 seconds) means proper groundswell with good shape and long lulls between sets. That’s the pick of the whole two weeks.

After that, the swell hangs around 4–6 ft but gets hammered by fresh 19 mph cross-breezes into the second week. Tuesday 21 July afternoon sees a bit of a lumpy 6 ft S swell, but the wind ruins it. Wednesday to Friday (22–24 July) stays marginal with onshore cross-chop. There is a slight chance of a clean morning on Wednesday 23 July with a lighter breeze and 4 ft SSE swell (11 seconds), but it’s not the same quality as that 20 July session.

Bottom line: Saturday 11 July morning is a good little score, but if you can wait, Monday 20 July morning is the standout – clean, solid, and pumping for the advanced crew. Don’t sleep on it, but remember it’s a two-week forecast, so that long-range call is promising but not set in stone.

Rusty.

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