Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Baya Reef. This is a solid reef break, mainly for advanced surfers, and it’s consistent. The optimum swell direction is from the southwest, so when that lines up, it’s on. Water temp is sitting at 28°, pretty much bang on average for this time of year.

The first real opportunity kicks off on Thursday morning, the 16th of July. Glassy conditions with barely a breath of wind from the SSW, and a 4ft SSW swell with a long 15-second period. The energy is moderate, coming in at 793. Waves will be clean and lined up, but it’s a reef break, so that long period will make them wall up nicely. The afternoon goes to crap, though – cross-shore wind jumps to 25 km/h and the surface gets messy.

Friday morning, the 17th, the swell bumps up a touch to 5ft, period 16 seconds, still from the SSW. Energy’s solid at 1103. But the wind is a light cross, not the cleanest – it’s a bit of a compromise. The morning is workable, but by afternoon it’s blown out again with 30 km/h cross-shore.

Saturday and Sunday mornings, the 18th and 19th, offer similar small windows: 4ft to 5ft SSW swell, light cross winds, but the quality is marginal. The energy drops off a bit, and the wind is never fully offshore. These are days you might get a fun one if you’re picky, but nothing to race down for.

Now, Monday the 20th of July – that’s a standout. The swell jumps to 7ft from the SSW, period 16 seconds, and the energy is strong at 1923. The morning wind is a clean cross-offshore from the SE at 20 km/h. The waves will be big, powerful, and well-shaped. But 7ft on a reef, with that long period, is expert territory. Not for beginners. The cross-off wind will keep it glassy, but the afternoon gets lumpy.

Tuesday the 21st morning still has a clean 5ft SW swell, cross-off wind, and moderate energy. It’s a good follow-up session, but the swell is easing.

There’s a big gap from the 22nd through the 27th. The swell drops, the wind turns cross, and the quality goes flat. A few mornings have clean conditions but the swell is too small or the period is short. The 23rd, for example, has a 6ft swell but it’s only 8 seconds – short period, weak energy (852), and it’s from the SSE, not the optimum SW direction. Not worth it.

Then, the 28th of July morning shows a flicker: 5ft from the SE, period 9 seconds, clean cross-off wind. The energy is moderate at 625. It’s a small window for a fun, clean wave, but the swell direction is off.

The real big one is on the 31st of July – Friday morning. A 8ft SW swell with a very long 19-second period, and energy is strong at 4123. The wind is light cross from the SSE at 10 km/h. This is a major groundswell. For expert surfers, this could be the session of the forecast. The long period will make the reef pitchy and hollow, but that cross wind will leave some texture. The afternoon stays big but the wind picks up. This one is promising but still a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.

Best two calls: Monday morning the 20th of July for the clean, powerful 7ft SW swell, and Friday morning the 31st for the huge 8ft SW groundswell. Both are for experts only.

Rusty.

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