Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s ahead for Baya Reef.

First thing you need to know: the water is sitting at a warm 83°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year – nothing crazy, but you’ll notice it.

Overall, this 16-day stretch is a mixed bag. There’s consistent swell running, but the wind is the real story, and it’s not a friendly one for most of the period. We’ve got a lot of lumpy, cross-shore chop to deal with, especially in the afternoons when the breeze kicks up to 19 mph or more. The mornings are your only real window, and even then, it’s often marginal.

The best of the best? That’s looking like the morning of Friday the 28th of August. We’ve got a clean 7 ft swell from the SSW, period around 16 seconds – that’s proper long-period groundswell, meaning plenty of energy and good shape. The wind is light and cross-offshore, which is a rare clean moment in this forecast. The combined energy is strong at 2304 – you’ll feel the push. This is the standout session for any experienced surfer.

The other one to circle is the morning of Wednesday the 2nd of September. Clean again with a light breeze, 6 ft from the SW and 16 seconds. The energy is moderate at 1759, but the conditions should be excellent for an advanced crew. That one’s over a week away, so keep an eye on it – promising but not locked in.

For the rest of it, the mornings are your only hope. Most days have that cross-shore wind, but if you can get out early on the 29th of August (Saturday), the 31st of August (Monday), or the 1st of September (Tuesday), there’s 5 ft to 7 ft of swell with light breezes. The quality is still marginal, but it’s rideable.

A heads up: that 7 ft swell on Thursday the 27th of August afternoon is big and ugly – 22 mph cross-shore wind, lumpy as anything. That’s expert-only territory and not even fun. Forget it.

Because the swell is mostly from the SSW and this is a reef break, the long-period groundswell days will produce well-shaped, powerful lines. But the short-period days (like when the period drops to 13 seconds) will be weaker and less organised.

There’s a gap of poor afternoons through most of the second week, but mornings keep offering *something*. The setup isn’t totally blank – it’s just a matter of picking the cleanest windows.

Rusty.

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