Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'll be straight with you – this forecast for Baya Reef is a marathon, not a sprint. We've got a solid run of swell, but conditions are gonna keep things interesting for the advanced crew only. The water's sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a real mixed bag. Wednesday the 5th starts off with a clean 5ft SSW groundswell, that's a long period 15 seconds with light cross-shore winds. The energy's cranking (1699), but it's a bit of a tease – "marginal" is the word. The afternoon builds to 4ft but the wind picks up to 12 mph, making it lumpy. Thursday the 6th pushes the swell up to 7ft with that same long-period SSW energy (2203), but the wind stays cross and the vibe is just "questionable." By Friday the 7th we're into 8ft to 8ft SSW swell – that's big, expert-only territory with combined energy over 3000 – but it's still cross and the commentary keeps saying "marginal." Saturday the 8th drops back to a consistent 7ft, but the wind is freshening on the afternoon. This whole first week is a case of the swell being there, but the quality being held back.

There's a real standout window on Tuesday the 12th of August morning. We've got a 7ft SSW swell, a nice clean 15-second period, and the wind drops right back to a light 6 mph cross-shore. The combined energy is a strong 1831. That's the best of the early window – clean lines and your best chance at a good one, even if the forecast says "marginal." After that, the pattern continues with solid 7ft to 7ft swells but lumpy afternoon winds.

Now, the real excitement is a week away. Keep your eyes on Tuesday the 18th of August afternoon and Wednesday the 19th of August morning. This is the pick of the whole outlook. Tuesday the 18th afternoon we see a jump to an 12ft SSW groundswell – that's a serious, expert-only pulse with a period of 19 seconds. The combined energy is absolutely pumping at 7567, and the wind is just a moderate cross-shore. Then Wednesday the 19th morning keeps that 12ft SSW swell with a 18-second period, combined energy at 6401, and the wind drops to a beautiful light 6 mph cross-shore. This is the one to point your board at – big, powerful, long-period groundswell with light airs. Perfect mate.

Even into Thursday the 20th of August morning we've still got an 8ft SSW swell with light wind and energy at 3797. A solid tail end to the run.

Overall, the best session hands down is Wednesday the 19th of August morning at Baya Reef. That 12ft SSW swell, long period, and light cross-shore wind is the clear stand-out. Tuesday the 18th afternoon is a close second. The rest of the time, it's solid swell but either the wind is up or the conditions are just "marginal" – you'll be working for every wave. For anyone who isn't an expert, stay right out of the water when it's over 8ft, which is a lot of this time.

Signing off, Rusty.

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