Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The only spot we’ve got to look at over this whole 16-day stretch is Baya Reef, and it’s a reef break that needs a solid SW groundswell, which it gets, but the conditions are a constant game of cat and mouse.

Right off the bat, the water temperature is sitting at 82°, which is about 2° warmer than what’s normal for this time of year. Not a huge deal, but it’s a little on the warm side.

The first decent window lands on Thursday, 20th August. We’ve got a solid 8ft SW groundswell rolling in with a very long 16-second period, so there’s plenty of energy in the water (3238). The wind is light and cross from the south, so the surface will have a bit of texture but it’s workable. It’s a solid option for the advanced crew, but keep in mind the tide might be a factor – the forecast points to it being a bit marginal. The morning is the pick, as the afternoon sees the wind pick up and a storm risk moving in, making things messy.

The swell holds through Friday morning, 21st August with a similar 8ft SW swell and a 17-second period, giving it even more punch (3249). The wind is still light and cross, so it’s a similar story: clean enough for a good session if you’re the experienced type. The afternoons are pretty much a write-off all week with the wind cranking up to 15-18 mph out of the SSE, putting a chop on the surface.

Into Saturday and Sunday, the swell backs off a touch to around 6ft to 6ft, but the period stays long (14-15 seconds), so there’s still decent shape. However, the wind is a constant problem, especially in the afternoons, with a fresh SSE breeze making it lumpy. The mornings are your only hope, and with light winds, you’ll get clean-ish lines on that 6ft to 7ft SW swell.

There’s a notable gap from the afternoon of Sunday, 23rd August through to the end of the month. The mornings offer a few glimmers, like on Monday, 24th August, when the wind shifts to a light cross-offshore and the swell is 6ft with a 16-second period – that’ll be clean and glassy, but the energy is dropping (1642). The following days see the swell fade further, with the smallest waves around 3ft to 4ft from the 26th to the 30th, and the energy dropping into the low hundreds (644-851). The wind is often too strong or just cross, so it’s mostly a tough slog for anything worthwhile.

Now, looking ahead to the end of the run, things get interesting. Monday, 31st August, is the standout. The morning session shows an 8ft SW swell with a 19-second period – that’s an absolute monster of a groundswell, with massive energy (4905). The wind is light and cross-offshore from the SE, so it’s going to be clean and lined up. This is expert territory though, as the size is well over 8ft. The afternoon cranks it up to 10ft with even more energy (5463), but the wind goes back to a fresh cross-shore, so it’ll be a bumpy, powerful beast. If you’re a confident charger, that Monday morning is the time to go.

The first couple of days of September see the swell staying in the 8ft to 8ft range with a 17-second period, still plenty of energy, but the wind is often cross or cross-onshore, so it’s not as clean. The 4th of September has a clean, cross-offshore morning, but the swell is down to 3ft – a long-period swell (18 seconds) but small, so it’ll be a fun, mellow wave for a longboard.

Overall, the best bet in this whole stretch is hands down Monday, 31st August morning. Big, clean, powerful SW groundswell with light offshore winds. For the rest of the time, keep an eye on the mornings for the cleanest windows, because the afternoons are almost always blown out.

Rusty

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