Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee and let's have a look at what's lined up for Baya Reef over the next couple of weeks.

This reef break is consistent with the groundswell, and it's an advanced spot that needs a specific swell direction. The forecast has a bit of a stop-start feel to it with the wind, but there are a couple of windows where it all comes together. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year.

We kick off on Thursday the 6th of August. Baya Reef is seeing a solid 7ft SSW groundswell with a long 16-second period. The energy is strong (2203), but the wind is a cross S'ly breeze at 6 mph. It's not clean, and the notes say "marginal surf" for the morning. The afternoon gets a bit gustier with a 9 mph cross breeze. Not the best start.

Friday the 7th offers a bit more size – a 8ft SSW swell, 17-second period, and energy ramps up to 3254. But again, that cross-shore wind is the problem. The morning is a light 6 mph cross breeze, which is okay, but the afternoon turns into a moderate 16 mph cross-chop. It's frustrating to see that much swell and not have the wind play ball.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are similar stories – plenty of strong groundswell (7ft and 6ft) with the same 16-second period, but the wind is either moderate to fresh and cross-shore, making it lumpy. The energy remains high (over 1500), but these days are a pass for me.

Monday the 10th sees a new swell pulse. The morning has a 7ft S'ly swell with a very long 19-second period. The energy is massive (4125), but we've still got a gentle cross breeze. The afternoon swell holds at 8ft, and the energy jumps to a huge 5024, but the wind picks up to a fresh 19 mph cross breeze, which kills the quality.

Now, Tuesday the 11th of August is one of the true standouts. The morning session is where it's at. We've got a solid 8ft SSW groundswell with a long 19-second period, and the energy is massive (5020). The wind is a cross-offshore from the SE at a moderate 12 mph, which cleans up the face nicely. This is what we've been waiting for. It's going to be a proper session. The crowds here can be an issue at times, so get in early. The afternoon falls apart again with a fresh 22 mph cross breeze, so don't sleep on the morning.

The middle of the week (Wednesday 12th) has a slight drop-off in size to 7ft, and the wind is back to a moderate cross breeze. Still surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Then we get to Thursday the 13th of August. This is the standout of the entire outlook. The morning is forecast to be glassy. Flat-out glassy. A 3 mph S'ly breeze. And it's running with a 10ft S'ly groundswell with a 17-second period. The energy is a massive 5438, and the notes say "exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers". This is a big, powerful, clean swell at an advanced reef break. If you are an experienced surfer, this is your day. The afternoon will still have a 10ft swell, but the wind shifts to a moderate cross breeze, so it's a morning mission.

Friday the 14th still has some size (8ft) but the magic is gone with a light cross breeze, and the weekend (15th & 16th of August) sees a steady drop in size and the return of fresh cross breezes. The swell energy drops from 2206 down to 1853. It's surfable, but not the quality of those few days before.

The following week, starting Monday the 17th of August, looks much weaker. We're down to 5ft and 4ft SSW swells with short 14-second periods and energy under 1000. The wind is still a problem. Things pick up a touch Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th with a 8ft to 7ft swell and some clean cross-offshore wind, but nothing beats that Thursday the 13th session. Friday the 21st of August has another 10ft SSW groundswell pulse (17-second period) with cross-offshore wind in the morning, which is a promising long-range call, but keep an eye on it.

All in all, the best waves are for the experts and are found on the mornings of Tuesday the 11th and most definitely Thursday the 13th of August. The rest of the time, the wind is the enemy.

Rusty.

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