Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, look, I’m not gonna lie to ya, this stretch is a bit of a grind. The only spot on the menu is Baya Reef, and it’s an advanced reef break that’s exposed to the swell, but we’ve got a solid run of cross-shore winds that are just going to mess up the surface the whole time. The water’s sitting at 80°, which is pretty average for this time of year, nothing wild there. The combined swell energy (1599) is moderate to strong, but that’s about the only positive.

We kick off on the afternoon of Sunday the 6th with a 6ft SSW swell, period of 16 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell, so it’ll have some grunt, but the wind is a 25 mph cross-shore, and the report says it’s poor surf with a strong cross-shore chop. That’s not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 7th through the whole first week is a similar story. Swell hangs around 4ft to 5ft from the SSW, with periods between 13 and 18 seconds, so there’s energy (1044 to 2199), but it’s all cross-shore winds, mostly fresh to moderate. The forecast calls it marginal at best. By Tuesday the 8th, the afternoon swell bumps to 8ft, which is pushing into expert-only territory, but with a 19 mph cross-wind making lumpy chop, it’s not going to be clean.

There’s a tiny glimmer on the morning of Monday the 14th. Swell is 6ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, and the wind drops to a light 6 mph cross-shore. The combined energy (1651) is solid, and that light breeze will only leave small ripples. It’s the best on offer in this whole window, but it’s still not clean offshore – just the least messy. Crowds are listed as “sometimes” here, so you might have a few others with the same idea.

Through the second week, from the 15th onwards, it’s the same pattern. Swell sticks between 3ft and 7ft, with periods from 13 up to 21 seconds, and energy ranging from 1038 to 2380. But it’s cross-shore winds every session – from gentle to fresh – and the surf is consistently described as marginal. The morning of Thursday the 17th has a 4ft SSW swell with a gentle 9 mph cross-wind (energy 1199), which is okay, but nothing to get excited about. The morning of Saturday the 19th sees a 7ft SW swell with moderate 12 mph cross-wind (energy 2322), but again, the wind direction kills it.

Honestly, there’s no standout, no day where the wind and swell line up perfectly. The best you can hope for is the light-wind windows, but even then, it’s not glassy. For a reef break, this cross-shore chop is a real downer. If you’re an expert and just need a paddle, maybe the morning of the 14th is your window. But don’t expect any gems.

Rusty.

Read more