Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are all about one spot, and honestly, it’s a tale of two cities. We’ve got a consistent run of SW groundswell pushing in, but the wind is going to be the main character in this story. It’s mostly going to be cross, which will chop things up, but there are a few windows where it cleans right up and it’s going to be worth your while.

We’re looking at Baya Reef (Baya-Reef). This is an advanced, consistent reef break that’s exposed to the SW. So, the potential is always there. Right off the bat, the water’s sitting at 82°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year. Nothing weird going on there.

The first real standout is Sunday the 9th, in the morning. We’ve got a solid 6ft SW swell rolling in with a 16-second period, and – get this – a light, cross-offshore breeze from the SE. That’s the recipe for some clean, proper reef waves. The energy is strong, with a combined reading of 1697. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s the only time the wind really plays ball for a full session.

After that, we’re in for a bit of a grind. The swell sticks around, with the energy building through Monday and Tuesday. On Monday the 10th, there’s a bigger pulse, with the combined energy jumping up to 3527, but the breeze swings cross-shore and it gets a bit lumpy. Still surfable for the crew that doesn’t mind a bit of chop.

Tuesday the 11th brings the biggest morning swell we see for a while, hitting 8ft at a 19-second period. That’s a serious, powerful groundswell, and the energy reading of 4971 is strong, just as you’d expect. But the 9 mph cross-breeze will have it a little crinkled. That size is pushing it for a lot of folks; it’s in the realm where you want to be confident.

The pattern pretty much holds for the rest of the first week – solid swell, but with a cross-wind messing it up in the afternoons. The mornings are generally a bit cleaner with the lighter breezes. Thursday the 13th looks like another chance in the morning, with 8ft of S swell and just a light cross-breeze. Still, nothing touches the quality of that Sunday.

The swell dips a bit over the weekend of the 16th and 17th, dropping to around 4ft-6ft, and the wind stays cross and fresh. The surf gets weaker and more disorganized, and honestly, it’s not worth the paddle.

Then, we get a big pulse for the second week. The energy is back with a vengeance on Wednesday the 19th. We’re looking at a 8ft SW swell in the morning, pushing up to 10ft in the afternoon. The energy readings are huge, 4206 and 4539. But again, the wind is cross and fresh, blowing 19 mph, which will make 10 feet of reef break a total washing machine. This is one for the experts only. At that size, with that wind, it’s less about surf and more about survival.

The rest of that week is more of the same, with strong swells in the 7ft to 8ft range being continually chopped up by these cross-shore breezes. There’s a brief window on the morning of Friday the 21st where the wind briefly goes cross-offshore again, giving us a bit of hope with 7ft of swell, but the magic of that Sunday the 9th is hard to beat.

So, here’s the bottom line. If you’re an experienced surfer, get on it early on Sunday morning the 9th. That’s the standout, hands down. For the rest of the time, be prepared for some lumpy, cross-wind conditions with power. And when that 10ft day rolls around on the 19th, just watch from the cliff.

Stay stoked.

Rusty

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