Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s shaping up.

First off, the water temp is sitting at 83°F which is right about average for this time of year, so you won’t need anything thick. The overall pattern? We’ve got a persistent SSW swell train running through the whole forecast, but the wind is the real story – mostly cross or cross-off, and it’s going to be the deciding factor between a decent wave and a messy one. The combined swell energy is moderate to strong, mostly in the 800 to 2000 range, with a couple of sessions peaking much higher. But nothing here is a screaming standout; it’s all marginal surf or questionable tide conditions according to the numbers.

Let’s run through it day by day.

Wednesday morning, July 8th, Baya Reef sees a 6ft SSW swell at 15 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell with good energy (1833). Wind is cross-off from the SE at 12 mph, so the faces should be clean. But the call is marginal, so don’t expect perfection. By the afternoon, the wind swings SSE and cranks to 22 mph, turning things lumpy and cross-chop. That’s a write-off.

Thursday July 9th morning is similar: 5ft SSW, 14 seconds, cross-off from the SE at 9 mph. Clean again, but still marginal. Afternoon gets messy with that fresh cross-shore.

Friday July 10th morning has 6ft SSW at 15 seconds, but the wind is a light cross-on from the SSW at 3 mph. That’ll put some tiny ripples on the face, so it’s not glassy but might be rideable. Combined energy is moderate (1500). Afternoon degrades.

Saturday the 11th through to Monday the 13th, the swell drops a little – 4ft to 5ft – and the wind remains cross or light cross. The energy drops too, into the 400-900 range. It’s all marginal, and the best you’ll get is a light breeze session early Saturday or Monday morning.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday morning July 14th: 5ft SSW but the period jumps to 18 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell. Energy goes back up to 1758. Wind is light from the south at 6 mph, cross. This is a reef break, and a long period SSW swell on a reef can be real special – walled up, lots of power, long waits between sets. This is probably the pick of the first week. The only catch? It’s still marked marginal, and the swell direction (SSW) isn’t the optimum SW for this spot, so it might not line up perfectly. Afternoon gets ruined by that 15 mph wind.

Wednesday July 15th morning: 5ft SSW, 16 seconds, light cross wind. Decent, but not as good as Tuesday. Afternoon is a no-go with 22 mph wind.

From Thursday July 16th through to Sunday July 20th, the swell hangs around 4ft to 5ft, period between 13 and 17 seconds. Mornings are generally light wind, but the energy dips into the 600-900 range. Nothing is firing. A few afternoons are completely blown out (scores of 0).

Then, a late push. Monday July 21st and Tuesday July 22nd mornings: 7ft to 7ft SSW swell at 15-16 seconds. The combined energy hits a high of 3012 on Tuesday afternoon. Winds are cross-off from the SE at 12 to 19 mph, keeping it clean. That’s the biggest, cleanest surf of the whole two weeks. But, 7ft+ on a reef is for advanced surfers only – beginners stay out of the water. The swell direction is still SSW, not the optimum SW, so there’s a chance the reef doesn’t handle it perfectly, but with that much energy and clean wind, it’s the standout window. Tuesday afternoon is cross and lumpy though.

Thursday July 23rd morning: back to 6ft, 13 seconds, gentle cross breeze. Still a reasonable wave to finish the run.

Best Bets: The standout is Tuesday morning July 14th for the very long period groundswell and light wind – if it lines up, it’ll be the most classic, powerful wave of the lot. The second standout is the bigger swell window on Monday July 21st and Tuesday July 22nd mornings – biggest surf, clean, but only for experienced crew. Everything else is a marginal, wait-and-see game. Crowds at Baya Reef are sometimes an issue, and with these conditions, expect a few locals out.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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