Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. There’s only one spot on the radar for this whole stretch, and it’s a tricky one.

We’re looking at Baya Reef, a solid advanced reef break. It’s exposed to the SW, which is exactly where the swell is coming from for the whole run, so that’s matching up. Water temps are about average for this time of year, nothing wild there.

The forecast kicks off with a bit of size on Wednesday the 2nd, with a 6 ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds. That’s proper long-period energy, meaning it’ll have plenty of push and shape, but at a reef, the long gaps between sets can make it feel a bit inconsistent. The combined energy is strong at 1612. The morning looks the best of the week with light SSE cross-breeze, so the surface will be clean with just a few ripples. The afternoon suffers though, as the wind picks up to 16 mph and lumps it up. It’s a marginal call, but the morning of the 2nd is the best with the cleanest conditions and that solid groundswell.

Thursday the 3rd drops a little to 4 ft, and winds are still cross, but the afternoon gets fresh and messy. Through the rest of the first week and into the second, the pattern stays the same: consistent SW groundswell, but the cross-shore wind never really lets up. The wave energy remains moderate to strong, with values like 1204 on Saturday the 5th morning, but the structure is always compromised by the wind.

The real standout in the whole window is Tuesday morning the 8th. The combined energy jumps to 3126 – that’s strong stuff – with a 6 ft SSW swell at 18 seconds. That’s a very long period, so the reef will be doing its thing, offering powerful, well-shaped lines. The morning cross-wind is moderate, so it’s not glassy, but it’s the best surface you’ll see for that size. This is a big, expert-level wave. Beginners should stay well clear; at 6 ft with that period, the reef will be pulling some serious power.

There’s a big pulse on Saturday the 12th afternoon, with 7 ft SW swell at 19 seconds and energy hitting 3940. That’s a massive, very long-period groundswell. The problem is the 19 mph SSE cross-wind, which will blow the top off it. For a reef, the long period might make it a bit too straight, but the power is undeniable. If you’re an expert and can handle the chop, it’s a window, but it’s not the pick.

The last call is Thursday the 17th morning: a 4 ft SW swell at 20 seconds – that’s a super long period, but with light SSE cross-breeze, it’ll be clean. The energy is 1926, which is moderate. It’s a mellow morning for the skilled crew.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, there’s no day where the wind truly cooperates to give us that glassy perfection. The best bet is the morning of the 8th for the combination of solid, strong swell and the best wind you’re going to get. If you’re an advanced surfer who can work with a moderate cross-breeze, that’s your window. The rest of the time, the wind is just too strong and too cross to make the most of the reef.

If the wind swings offshore, this place could be magic, but for now, it’s a waiting game. The forecast is consistent, so it won’t be flat, but it’s a battle against the breeze.

Rusty.

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