Baya Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s talk about what’s on offer for Baya Reef.

The forecast is pretty steady for a while, but it’s not looking like the kind of epic run that gets you calling in sick. We’ve got a consistent, long-period SW groundswell rolling in, but the wind is mostly a cross-shore or light cross-onshore affair, which keeps things from getting truly clean. The water is sitting at 78°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you might want a spring suit.

Let’s start with this Saturday the 12th. Morning has some lumps at 4 ft from the SW with a 19-second period. That long period gives the waves real push, but with a light cross-onshore breeze, it’s not perfect. The combined swell energy is strong (1793). By the afternoon, the wind picks up to 16 mph and gets messy. Sunday the 13th sees a bump in size to 7 ft, still SW with a 16-second period, but again that cross-wind chops things up. Monday the 14th is similar with 6 ft and a light morning wind, but it’s cross-onshore.

Honestly, through the first week, nothing really stands out as a standout. The scores are middling, and the wind is just never truly offshore. The waves are there, but you’ll be sharing them with a cross-chop. For an advanced reef break, it’s doable, but it’s not going to be a session you write home about. The second week starts to look a bit more interesting, especially around the 22nd and 23rd, with size picking up to 7 ft from the SSW, period staying around 17-18 seconds, and energy jumping into the 2000s. But still, that wind is cross or cross-on.

Now, if you’re hanging out for something special, keep an eye on the 25th of September. Friday morning brings a 5 ft SSW swell with a very long 20-second period and a light cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy jumps to a strong 3433, which is the highest of the entire run. That long-period groundswell, at Baya Reef, could link up nicely. But by the afternoon, the swell hits 8 ft with stronger cross-winds, so the morning window is the one. That 8 ft is getting up there – only for experts on a reef.

The following Saturday the 26th keeps the size at 8 ft in the morning, still from the SSW with a 17-second period, but the wind turns cross-onshore again. It’s solid, powerful, but messy. Given the persistent cross-winds and the powerful swell, if you’re into kiting, this setup might actually be more appealing than paddle surfing for a few of those afternoons.

So, my pick? If you can get out on the morning of the 25th of September, that’s your best chance at something truly memorable. Long-period groundswell, decent energy, and the lightest wind of the period. It’s two weeks out, so keep an eye on it, but that’s the one that has my attention.

Rusty.

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