Arashi Bay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s just get this straight off the bat: for the next 16 days, we’re looking at a proper drought. The only wave on the menu is Arashi Bay Reef, and it’s a tough one to get excited about. This reef rarely breaks, and the forecast is showing it’s staying true to form. There’s a massive gap right from the start, with no real surf to speak of until we get into the second week.

The first real hint of anything comes around Thursday, 11 September, and even then it’s barely a whisper. We’re talking a tiny 0.3ft wave from the north, with a period of 11 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, but with an energy reading of just 2, it’s weaker than a cup of tea. The water temp is sitting at 83.1°, right about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The real problem is the wind. Thursday morning, the 11th, it’s ripping out of the east at 25 mph, cross-offshore. It’s clean, sure, but that’s a strong breeze, and it’s going to make paddling into that tiny bump a real chore. By the afternoon, the wind swings more east-northeast at 28 mph, straight offshore. It’s clean, but it’s also blowing so hard it’ll be tough to even get into the wave. This pattern just repeats itself day after day: clean, but with a punishing offshore wind.

Friday, 12 September, is more of the same. 0.3ft, north, 10-second period, 2 energy. The wind is still cross-offshore in the morning at 22 mph, and then offshore in the afternoon at 25 mph. It’s a grind.

Saturday, 13 September, offers a sliver of hope. Still 0.3ft, north, but the period drops to 9 seconds. The energy is still a pathetic 2. The wind is cross-offshore at 22 mph in the morning. It’s just not enough.

After that, we hit a dead zone. From Sunday, 14 September, right through to the end of the outlook, the swell flatlines. There’s nothing. Just zero. The wind continues to blow, but without any swell, it’s a complete washout. There’s a tiny 0.3ft north swell on Wednesday, 16 September, with a 9-second period and 2 energy, but it’s the same old story: cross-offshore wind at 22 mph. It’s not worth getting out of bed for.

The bottom line is this: there’s no standout session here. Not one. The only break on offer, Arashi Bay Reef, is inconsistent and rarely breaks, and this forecast proves it. The combination of tiny, weak swell and strong, onshore winds makes this a write-off. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong, clean offshore wind might look interesting, but for us paddle surfers, it’s a hard pass. The forecast can change, but right now, this is a blank run.

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