Anse Bougainville Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the forecast for Anse Bougainville is looking pretty grim for a long stretch. The whole first week and a bit is a write-off. We've got a solid, persistent swell running, but the wind’s just not playing ball. From Saturday the 4th right through to Monday the 13th, we're looking at moderate to fresh onshore and cross-onshore winds, mostly from the SSE and SE. That’s the kiss of death for a reef break that’s best with a northerly offshore.

The combined swell energy is actually pumping, hitting between 392 and 1117 (moderate to strong energy) through that period, but with the wind state described as "unknown," "choppy," and "lumpy," it’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. The swell height hangs around the 4ft to 8ft range, with a short 8-10 second period.

There’s literally no surf worth paddling out for until Saturday the 11th. Even then, on Saturday afternoon, the model calls it "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions" – a 1/10 at best. You’re looking at a solid 7-day gap of bad conditions before we even get a sniff of something possible.

The water temp is about 80°, which is pretty bang-on average for the time of year here (anomaly of 1°). You won't need more than a spring suit, but you will need patience.

Honestly, the only time the chart even hints at surfable conditions is on Saturday the 11th afternoon and Sunday the 12th, with a slight drop in wind speed to 9 mph. The swell will be 4ft to 5ft from the SSE with a 9-10 second period, and the energy is still moderate (442-606). The wind remains cross-onshore though, so it'll be "fairly choppy." If you’re desperate, you could paddle out and find a few bumpy ones, but don't expect much.

Looking way out to the second week, from Monday the 13th onward, the swell gets even bigger – we're talking 7ft to 10ft from the SE with long-period 10-second swell and massive combined energy values over 1000, all the way up to 1946. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, fresh to moderate. At 8ft and above, that's expert-only territory on a reef even in good conditions, but with those winds, it's just a washing machine. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the period.

So, what’s the call? There’s no standout session here. The closest you’ll get to a window is Saturday afternoon the 11th, but it’s marginal. The rest is a long, frustrating run of wind-affected slop. Sometimes it’s like this – the trade winds just lock in and kill the fun. Keep your eye on the longer-range charts, but for now, maybe clean the wax off your board and wait.

- Rusty

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