Ricks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's on the menu for Ricks Reef. It's a tricky run ahead, so let's get into it.

The next couple of weeks at Ricks Reef are looking pretty rough, to be honest. We've got a solid run of stormy, unstable weather with strong winds and messy conditions. The water is sitting at 86°, which is about 0.9° above the long-term average for this time of year – nothing too wild, just a touch warmer than usual. The first real glimmer of hope doesn't pop up until the tail end of the forecast, and even then it's got a big caveat.

For the first week and a half, from August 1st through to the 13th, it's a write-off. We're seeing nothing but "poor surf conditions" or "marginal" calls, with fresh cross-onshore and cross-shore winds that are going to leave it chopped up and lumpy. The swell energy is actually decent at times, with moderate to strong readings like 721 (moderate) kicking off on the 1st, and then huge numbers like 2906 on the 7th and even 8831 on the 10th – that's some serious energy. But the problem is the wind. It's almost always a fresh 19-22 mph cross or cross-onshore, which kills any chance of clean waves. The swell direction is mostly ENE, NE, or W, but the short period of 10-14 seconds and the wind just make it a mess. The 7th of August sees a 10 ft W swell at 10 seconds, but it's cross-onshore and lumpy – that's kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The 9th and 10th see massive 13 ft to 16 ft W swells, but with those same dirty winds, it's only for the experts, and even then, it's ugly.

The first real standout shows up on Friday, August 14th, in the afternoon. The forecast flips to clear skies, and we get a 18 ft W swell with a period of 11 seconds, combined energy of 6744 (very strong). The wind is SW at 19 mph, but it's cross-shore, so it's still lumpy cross-chop. The rating is a 4/10, and it's called "marginal." It's a big, powerful swell, but the wind is still a problem. The 14th morning is flat with a tiny 1.0 ft NE swell, so the afternoon is the only real window. The 16th also has a 13 ft W swell with a 13-second period and moderate cross-onshore wind, which is a bit better, but still not clean.

There's a big gap of poor conditions from the 1st to the 13th, with only a few marginal days in between. The only real standout is the Friday afternoon, August 14th, at Ricks Reef. It's a big, powerful W swell, but the cross-shore wind means it's going to be lumpy and rough. If you're an expert and you don't mind a bit of chop, you might get some big, powerful waves. For the rest of us, it's a pass.

Rusty.

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