Ricks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a seat, let's talk about what's coming up for Ricks Reef. It's a reef break that needs a very specific recipe to work, and honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty touch and go. The water's sitting at about 85°F, which is normal for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

We're starting off on Saturday the 4th of July, and right out of the gate, it's a no-go. We've got a tiny 3ft ENE swell with only 8 seconds of period and a cross-onshore wind messing it up. The wave energy is weak (260). Afternoon gets a bit bigger, jumping to 7ft from the east with a really nice 16-second period, but the wind stays nasty and we're looking at a risk of thunderstorms. The combined energy jumps up to strong (1986), but with that cross-onshore wind, it's just messy.

Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th are a write-off. The swell gets huge—we're talking 10ft, 13ft, even 16ft—but the winds are brutal. Sunday morning sees 22 mph cross-onshore winds with 10ft east swell (14-second period, very strong energy at 4278), and it just gets worse. Monday morning, the wind is howling at 53 mph from the WSW, totally blowing the place out. The combined energy for that morning is extreme (15022), but it's way too big and wild—this is kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The ocean is angry.

Tuesday the 7th shows a change. The wind shifts to a cross-offshore from the SSW, and the swell drops to a cleaner 13ft from the west with a 12-second period. The combined energy is still very strong (4040). The forecast calls it "marginal" and mentions questionable tide conditions, but the conditions will be clean. It's going to be a big, powerful wave, definitely only for the experts.

Wednesday the 8th is similar: clean conditions with cross-offshore wind, swell settling to 8ft from the west with a 13-second period. Energy is strong (2282). Still questionable tide, but it's starting to look more manageable.

Thursday the 9th sees the wind go cross-shore, but the swell picks back up to 12ft from the west with a 14-second period. The wind is lighter—9 mph in the afternoon—so it's not as choppy, but it's still cross-shore. Energy is very strong (4321). Falls into the "marginal" category.

Friday the 10th: swell holds at 10ft from the west, 15-second period, but the wind goes cross-onshore again. Light breeze in the morning, but that cross-onshore angle will put a bit of texture on it. Energy is very strong (3656).

Now, here's the standout window. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th of July. On Saturday, the swell drops to 8ft from the WNW, 14-second period, with a gentle cross-shore breeze. Combined energy is still strong (2174). But Sunday the 12th, that's the one. The swell is a solid 6ft from the WNW, still that lovely 14-second groundswell, and the wind goes light and cross-offshore. The conditions are described as "excellent for experienced surfers." The wave energy is moderate (1144). This is the best we're going to see. It's still a reef break, and it's inconsistent by nature, so you'll need patience. But with that long period, the waves will have real shape and power. Be aware, crowds are possible here.

Monday the 13th holds some promise too. The swell drops to 5ft from the WNW, 13-second period, and in the morning we get clean, light offshore winds from the SSE. Conditions are expected to be very good. Energy is moderate (732). A solid second option.

After Monday the 13th, it all falls apart. From Tuesday the 14th all the way through Saturday the 18th of July, the swell drops below 3ft, the periods shorten, and the wind is onshore or cross-shore. The combined energy drops below 300, often below 100. It's a long, flat run. There's a tiny bump on Sunday the 19th—3ft ENE with an 8-second period and light offshore wind, but it's "surfable but very ordinary." That's the end of the forecast window.

Bottom line: if you've got a board and you're keen, mark your calendar for Sunday the 12th. That's the pick of the fortnight. Clean, solid, and with that long period, it'll be a proper reef session.

Rusty.

Read more