Lohi's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this isn’t going to be a vintage run for the region. The swell coming through at Lohi’s (reef) is from the south-southwest, and while that matches the optimum direction, the wind is a constant problem. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but it’s a bit of a grind for quality.

Right out of the gate, on Friday the 11th of September, we’ve got a 3ft SSW swell rolling in with a very long period of 20 seconds. That combination is pushing a lot of energy – we’re talking a combined swell energy of 1561 (strong to very strong). Sounds amazing, right? Well, the wind is howling at 19 mph from the west, making it a cross-off breeze. It’s clean, but those 19 mph gusts are going to ruffle things up. The wave comment calls it marginal, which feels about right. That long period will make it a bit tricky too – it’ll stand up nicely on the reef, but you’ll have long waits between sets. Crowds are a possibility here.

Saturday the 12th is more of the same story. The swell bumps up to 5ft in the morning, period drops to 17 seconds, and the energy is still strong at 1718. But again, that fresh westerly wind at 19 mph is your constant companion. It’s clean enough, but not the glassy perfection we dream of.

We hit a rough patch from Sunday the 13th through to Friday the 18th of September. Sizes drop down to between 2ft and 4ft, and while periods stay decent, the energy drops significantly (down to 478 on Wednesday the 16th morning – that’s weak energy). The wave comments scream “poor surf conditions” and “marginal.” Thursday the 17th afternoon offers a glimmer with a 4ft, 14-second SSW swell and a calmer 12 mph cross-off wind, but the energy is still only moderate (579). Honestly, it’s a bit of a wash for paddle surfing; with the consistent cross-off wind and the cleaner conditions, a kite surfer might have more fun than a paddler on these beach-and-reef setups.

Things perk up a touch on Saturday the 19th of September. The morning shows 5ft SSW swell at 16 seconds, combined energy of 1115 (moderate to strong), and clean conditions under a moderate 16 mph breeze. It’s a step up, and the score nudges up. But it’s not a winner.

Then we hit a real low from Sunday the 20th through to Wednesday the 23rd of September. The swell goes short and weak – 3ft to 4ft from the south and south-southeast, with periods dropping to just 9 or 10 seconds. That’s short-period, weak windswell, with combined energy readings as low as 276 (weak). The wave comments are almost all “poor surf conditions.” This is a big gap with no real standouts.

Now, for the long-range promise. Check this out – Thursday the 24th of September. We get a 5ft SSW swell in the morning, jumping to 5ft in the afternoon, with a very long period of 21 seconds and combined energy of 2206 (very strong). Friday the 25th keeps the 5ft size, though the period comes down to 18 seconds, and the energy is still strong at 1719. But here’s the catch – on Thursday the 24th, the wind is still a fresh 19 mph cross-off, and on Friday the 25th, it turns cross-shore with a cross-chop. So it’s powerful, but messy. It might hold up for experts only at that size, given it’s over 5ft. It’s promising, but don’t bet the farm on it a week and a half out.

So, my call is: the standout period is the first two days (Friday 11th and Saturday 12th of September) for the biggest, most energetic swell, despite the wind. The other flicker of hope is that long-range pulse on the 24th and 25th of September – watch that one closely. For the rest, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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