Black Rocks Jetty Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the outlook for Black Rocks Jetty (reef). This is the only break on the cards for the next couple of weeks, so we’re putting all our eggs in one basket here.

The window opens with some pretty average, choppy conditions on Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th. The wind is cross or cross-onshore, and the ocean is a bit of a mess with a lot of energy, but the quality is just not there. It’s a bit of a write-off for a clean paddle-out. The water is sitting at a warm 76°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year.

Now, Wednesday the 9th is the big standout. That morning is where it’s at. We’re looking at a solid 12ft SSW groundswell running with a very long 17-second period, and the wind is a light cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is huge (8087), which means serious power. This is proper, heavy reef surf. It’s not for beginners – that’s expert territory only. But for the crew who know what they’re doing, it’s going to be firing. The afternoon cleans up even more, turning glassy. If you can only get one session, make it Wednesday.

Thursday the 10th backs off a touch, with 7ft to 6ft of SSW/S swell, but it’s glassy all day. The energy is still moderate-to-strong (3158 down to 2766), so there’s plenty of push. The quality is excellent for experienced surfers, but it’s a step down from the Wednesday peak.

By Friday the 11th, the swell fades fast to 4ft and then 2ft. The periods are still long (12-18 seconds), but the energy drops right off (645-713). It’s glassy and clean, but you’ll be hunting for the smaller, lined-up sets. Not a total loss, but it’s a quieter day.

The weekend of the 12th and 13th brings a little bump back, with 5ft to 6ft of SSW swell. Saturday is glassy all day, with moderate energy (851-985). Sunday morning is a ripper, with a glassy 5ft swell and a very long 18-second period, giving it a nice punch. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-shore chop, so get out early.

The following week starts to get a bit hit-and-miss. Monday the 14th is onshore and messy, not worth your time. Tuesday the 15th is a return to form – glassy with 4ft to 5ft SSW swell, excellent for experienced surfers, and moderate energy. Wednesday the 16th is a bit of a mixed bag with glassy conditions in the morning turning to onshore in the afternoon.

The swell drops right out on Thursday the 17th, with tiny 2ft to 2ft surf. That’s a real lull.

Looking ahead to the second week, the long-range outlook is promising. Friday the 18th is a rebound, with glassy 3ft to 4ft SW groundswell, but the energy is still low (791-945). The standout in this second week looks to be the weekend of the 19th and 20th. Saturday the 19th is glassy all day with 5ft SW swell (moderate energy of 1160), and by Sunday afternoon the 20th, we get a punchy 8ft SSW swell jumping back up to 1887 energy. Glassy again. That Sunday is a good call.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd keep the run going with 7ft to 8ft SSW swell, all glassy. That’s a solid run of excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The energy is strong (over 2200 on Monday). Forecast can change, but this is a good bet.

Remember, this is a reef break, so the long-period groundswells (15-18 seconds) will be drawing in nicely. It’s not a spot for beginners when it’s over 5ft, and definitely not over 8ft. Crowds are possible here, especially on the clean days, so keep that in mind.

Signing off, Rusty.

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