Playa Copey Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you—this next 16-day stretch for Playa Copey is a tough one to call. We’re staring down a long, quiet run with pretty much nothing worth paddling out for. The whole forecast window is marked by poor surf, and the first real suggestion of any action doesn’t come until Wednesday afternoon, July 29th. Even then, it’s not great.

The overall pattern is a persistent, small northeast swell, constantly messed up by onshore or cross-shore winds. The first few days, from Friday the 24th through to Wednesday morning the 29th, are a total write-off. The swell is tiny—between 1 ft and 3 ft—with short, weak periods of 4 to 8 seconds. The combined wave energy is feeble, barely hitting 20-36 (combined energy of all swells directed here). The wind is a constant enemy, blowing from the ENE at 15-25 km/h, keeping the surface choppy and messy. It’s not surfable, mate.

The first glimmer, if you can call it that, comes on Wednesday afternoon, July 29th. The swell lifts slightly to 3 ft from the NE, with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 135 (combined energy of all swells directed here)—moderate, but still weak. The wind drops to a gentle 15 km/h from the E, turning cross-shore, leaving a slight cross-chop. It’s still poor surf, but it’s the best we’ve seen. The water temperature anomaly is about average for the time of year, so nothing wild there.

Thursday, July 30th, shows a bit more pulse. The morning has 3 ft from the E at 8 seconds, with a combined energy of 175 (combined energy of all swells directed here) and light cross-shore winds. The afternoon sees the swell hit 3 ft from the ENE, period 9 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 254 (combined energy of all swells directed here)—moderate, but still not great. The wind picks up to 25 km/h, creating a cross-chop. It’s the biggest swell of the window, but it’s still average at best.

After that, from Friday July 31st onward, it fades back into the same old story: tiny swell, weak energy, and choppy conditions. The waves stay below 3 ft, periods are short, and the combined energy drops back to 20-60. The wind is a constant nuisance. Honestly, there’s no standout session here. The best option is Thursday afternoon, July 30th, when the swell is at its peak and the direction is more easterly, matching the optimum swell direction from the NE, but it’s still not clean enough to get excited about.

For a point break like Playa Copey, which is consistent and exposed to the NE, we need offshore winds from the S to clean it up, and we’re not getting that. The crowds are sometimes a factor, but with surf this poor, you’ll have the place to yourself. You’d be better off waiting for a proper groundswell. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially on the breezier afternoons.

Rusty.

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