Conchan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good, hard look at what’s cooking at Conchan over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you. The water temp here is running about average for the time of year, so nothing weird going on with that. The whole outlook is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a persistent south-west swell running, which is exactly what this spot wants to see, but the wind is the real story. For the most part, we’re dealing with a cross-onshore breeze that’s putting a bit of a chop on the surface. It’s not a total washout, but it’s keeping things from being really clean.

The first few days, from Monday the 20th through to the end of the week, are pretty marginal. The swell is hanging around the 4ft to 4ft mark, with decent periods of 11 to 13 seconds, but that cross-onshore wind is just messing with the face. The wave energy is moderate (466 to 658), but the quality just isn’t there for a proper recommendation. It’s frustrating, because the swell direction is right, but the wind is off.

We hit a bit of a lull around Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th, with the swell dropping to 2ft and 2ft, and the period going all over the place. The energy is still there, but the size is just too small to get a proper wave. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are a little better, with the swell building back to 3ft and 3ft, and the wind turning more onshore, which is actually a bit cleaner. Still, it’s not anything to get too excited about.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window is the start of the second week. Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th see a proper pulse of swell coming through. We’re looking at 5ft to 6ft of SW groundswell, with a period of 15 to 17 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, which means it’s got real power. The wave energy is strong (1,403 to 1,648), which is a big step up from the week before. But, and it’s a big but, that wind is still cross-onshore, so it’s going to be a bit lumpy. It’s the best size on offer, but the conditions aren't perfect. For an advanced surfer, this is your window. The size is getting up there, so it’s not for beginners.

After that, the swell drops back a bit through the 29th to the 31st, with the wind still causing trouble. Then we get another promising window on Sunday the 2nd of August. That morning and afternoon look solid: 6ft of SW swell with a 13 to 14-second period, and the wind is finally offshore and light. The energy is strong (1,182 to 1,238), and the forecast is for a slight air or light breeze. That’s the kind of clean, glassy window we’ve been waiting for. This is the real standout. If you can get out there on August 2nd, you’ll be rewarded with the best conditions of the whole stretch.

The last couple of days of the forecast, the 3rd and 4th of August, see the swell fade and the wind turn back cross-onshore, so it’s a bit of a tail-off.

So, summing it up: the first week is a write-off for a proper session. The best bet is that Sunday, August 2nd, with clean, offshore winds and solid 6ft swell. The 27th and 28th of July have the biggest waves, but the wind will be a bit of a fight. Keep your eyes on that forecast.

Rusty.

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