Big Wave Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – this 16-day window at Big Wave Bay is a rough one for surfers. The first week is a write-off, and the second week only offers a couple of brief moments of hope. The forecast is a patchwork of crazy winds, storms, and messy conditions, but there are two days that stand out if you're willing to be patient.

The whole period kicks off with a massive storm on the 26th of July. Sunday morning sees a 16ft swell from the NNW, but it's attached to a 56 mph cross-offshore wind. That's a "storm force" situation, and while the wave energy is extreme (3581), it's pure danger. The afternoon is just as bad with a severe gale. Don't even think about it.

Things don't settle down. The beginning of the week is a mess of rain, thunderstorms, and strong cross-shore winds. The swell is either tiny or, when it does show up on the 28th and 29th, it's short-period (6 to 7 seconds) and blown out by fresh to strong onshore winds. The combined energy gets up to moderate levels (around 273), but the quality is garbage.

The first real standout comes on the 31st of July. Friday morning is absolute glass. The wind is dead calm (0 mph), and you've got a 10ft SE swell. The period is a bit short at 8 seconds, but the wave energy is strong (960) and the conditions are described as "glassy." This is your best window for experienced surfers. At 10ft, it's expert territory, so don't take the beginners out. The afternoon cleans up even more with a glassy surface and a 6ft ESE swell, making it a solid session. Expect crowds here, as it's a "sometimes" crowded spot.

The second standout is a bit further out, on the 2nd of August. Sunday morning brings a 4ft ESE swell with a long period of 13 seconds, which is proper groundswell. The wind is a gentle cross-shore from the NE, which will keep the surface clean. The combined energy is moderate (476). This is a much more manageable size for a wider range of surfers. The long period means longer waits between sets, but better-shaped waves. It's a promising day, but being over a week away, don't lock it in just yet.

Everything else in the second week drops off hard. The 1st of August has a decent swell (5ft) but with a cross-on wind, it's not worth it. From the 3rd of August onwards, the swell collapses to tiny, weak waves with poor wind. The 5th of August, for example, has a 0.3ft swell with a 17-second period – that's a long wait for nothing.

So, to sum it up: the 31st of July is your best bet for clean, powerful, expert-only surf. The 2nd of August is a more moderate, long-period groundswell option for the rest of the crew. The rest of the 16 days is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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