Big Wave Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the outlook for Big Wave Bay.

First up, the water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there.

Straight off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – this is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is looking pretty grim. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions with no real standouts to get excited about. From right now, through the end of July and deep into the first week of August, it’s a write-off. The swell is tiny, weak, and the wind is almost always messing it up. You’ll be looking at a lot of cross-onshore breezes chopping up what little energy there is.

For the first several days, through the end of July and into the start of August, the combined wave energy is pathetic – mostly in the low double digits or even single digits (like 75, 92, 80). The swell is short-period windswell, around 5 to 6 seconds, coming from the ESE or E. That’s not the direction this sheltered spot wants to see from its optimum NE. The waves are small, under 3 ft, and messy. On Wednesday the 29th, the swell bumps up to 4 ft, but it’s lumpy with a fresh cross-onshore wind. The afternoon of the 29th sees a 5 ft swell, but it’s still poor with moderate cross-onshore winds. Not worth a paddle.

After that, it drops off a cliff. From the 31st of July right through to the 10th of August, the swell is barely a ripple – mostly 0.7 ft or less. The combined energy is in the single digits or low double digits. There’s a brief moment of glassy conditions on the morning of the 3rd of August, but with a swell of just 0.3 ft, you’re not catching anything. The 4th and 5th of August have a very long-period groundswell (15–18 seconds) pushing in, but it’s only 0.7 ft – that’s a lot of energy for nothing. Long period on a beach break like this can make waves break too straight anyway.

The only faint glimmer comes way out on the 11th of August. Tuesday morning, we get glassy conditions with a 2 ft swell from the ENE, with a period of 6 seconds. The combined energy is a paltry 44. It’s the closest thing to clean we’ll see, but it’s still tiny and not really worth suiting up for unless you’re desperate for a float. Then on the 12th of August, Wednesday morning, the wind swings cross-offshore from the WNW, cleaning it right up, but the swell is only 1 ft with a 7-second period and energy of 19. Clean, but flat.

So, the honest truth? There are no good surf options in this 16-day window. With a break that’s sheltered and fairly inconsistent, a blank run like this is more normal for the area. Don’t hold your breath – forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a no-go.

Rusty.

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