Thunder Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We’re looking at the Thunder (reef) break, and the 16-day window is almost a total write-off. The wave energy is barely registering, with combined energy values peaking at a weak 116 (moderate) only on Saturday the 29th of August, then dropping to 79 or less, and long stretches of zero energy. The water temperature is 84°F with a slight anomaly of 0.5°F, so it’s about average for this time of year – the ocean’s warm, but it’s not doing us any favours.

The first real chance is Saturday morning, the 29th of August. Thunder is a sheltered reef break that rarely breaks, and it’s living up to that reputation. We’ve got a small 3ft swell from the ESE with a short 9-second period – that’s weak, windswell stuff. The combined energy is only 116 (weak), and while the wind is a cross-off from the east at 12 mph, keeping the surface clean, the surf quality is poor. It’s not really worth paddling out for. Saturday afternoon drops to 2ft with even less energy, and the rest of the weekend and into early next week is a flat spell with zero surf from Monday the 31st of August through Tuesday the 1st of September – a gap of several days with nothing.

There’s a tiny blip on Wednesday the 2nd of September morning and afternoon with 2ft ESE swells, 8-second period, and combined energy of 47 (weak). The wind is a moderate cross-off, but again, it’s poor surf. This pattern of tiny, weak swell and poor conditions just repeats through Thursday the 3rd, Friday the 4th, and Saturday the 5th of September. Sunday the 6th through to Tuesday the 9th is completely flat again – another long stretch of nothing.

The only other flicker of life comes right at the end of the outlook, on Sunday the 13th of September morning, with a 2ft ESE swell, 9-second period, and combined energy of 50 (weak). That’s still poor. Afternoon on the 13th bumps up to 2ft from the SE, 8-second period, energy of 75 (weak), but still poor. The wind is a fresh breeze cross-off, so it’s clean, but the waves are tiny and weak.

Honestly, for a break that rarely breaks, this is a brutal run. The only stands are the Saturday the 29th of August morning session, with the highest energy of the whole period, but it’s still not good. The rest is flat or close to it. For paddle surfing, this is a washout. With the strong cross-off winds and tiny waves, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than anything else. Forecasts can change, but right now, this is a dust bowl.

Rusty.

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