Thunder Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next stretch. Honestly, the 16-day window is looking pretty bleak for Thunder. There's no stand-out swell, no proper push, and the forecast is just a long, flat hump. It’s rare for this place to go this quiet, but it happens. The good news is that the wind is mostly cross-offshore, which would keep things tidy if there was anything to ride. But with waves this small, it’s more of a “watch the horizon” situation than a “wax up” one.

The first real hope shows up on Wednesday the 5th, but it’s tiny. We’re talking 0.7ft of ESE swell, periods around 7 seconds, and that’s just not enough to get the reef talking. The energy is super weak, coming in at only 5. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so a steamer isn't strictly necessary, but a spring suit wouldn't hurt.

Thursday the 6th through to Sunday the 9th will see a little more energy, but it’s still nothing special. The swell nudges up to 2ft on Thursday afternoon, and we get a bit more period – 8 seconds – with combined energy reaching 80. Friday’s similar, with 3ft and 7-second periods and energy in the low 60s. It’s meager, but it might be enough for a longboard and some fun little reformations. The wind stays cross-off from the east, so the surface should be clean. It’s not going to be a classic day, but it's the best of a bad bunch for the near term.

After that, it just fades again. Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th drift back to 1ft, with energy in the 40s. By Wednesday the 12th, it’s still stuck in that same rut, 2ft at 8 seconds.

Then the bottom falls out. From Thursday the 13th through to Monday the 17th, there’s nothing. No swell height, no period, no energy – just a flat ocean and a fresh breeze. The forecast shows zero for that entire stretch. That’s a solid five-day gap with nothing to surf.

The light at the end of the tunnel is a distant one. On Tuesday the 18th, we see a tiny pulse of long-period swell – 0.3ft at 16 seconds – but the energy is only 10. It’s a tease. Things start to wake up a bit more on Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th. We get 1ft of SE swell, with periods of 13 seconds and then 12 seconds. The energy climbs to 83 and then 95, which is still weak, but it’s the most organized swell in the whole window. It’s coming from the southeast, which is a little off the optimum ENE direction for Thunder, so it might not be lined up perfectly. But with that longer period, it could still offer a few clean, if small, waves for a patient surfer. This is one to keep an eye on – it’s far out, so don’t get too excited yet, but it’s the only thing that looks like it has any real potential. It’s a promise, not a guarantee.

So, bottom line: the next week and a half is a write-off. The only real reason to paddle out is for the exercise. The best bet is that distant pulse around the 19th and 20th, but even that is a long shot. Keep the board in the car, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty

Read more