Fausse Passe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. We’ve got a wild 16-day forecast on our hands for this spot, and I gotta tell ya, it's a tale of two extremes: either way too much power or not quite enough love from the ocean.

Right out of the gate, this Sunday the 26th, the ocean is absolutely *pumping* with a massive 12ft SSW groundswell. We’re talking a combined energy of (5267) – that’s a lot of juice. The water’s sitting at a pretty normal 72°, so no surprises there. But here’s the thing: for a spot like Fausse Passe, that’s just too much. This is an advanced reef break, and while the wind is a clean cross-off, this swell is too big for most. This is expert territory only, and even then, you’d want to be very, very confident.

Monday and Tuesday see the size drop to around the 7ft mark, still a solid SSW swell, but the conditions get messy. Strong cross-off winds and lumpy conditions make it a struggle. It’s not unrideable, but the forecast calls it marginal with questionable tide. It's gonna be a grind.

The first real glimmer of hope hits on Thursday the 30th. The swell drops right back to 4ft, but the wind goes glassy with a light northerly breeze. The period jumps to a very long 13 seconds, making it a proper groundswell. It’s a small wave, but clean as a whistle. For a reef break, that long period will wrap in nicely, giving you those long, drawn-out lines. It won't be big, but it’ll be perfect for a longboard or a fish. The crowd situation? The guidance says *sometimes*, so expect a few other heads out for a morning session on that glass.

After that, we hit a proper flat spell. Friday the 31st through to Saturday the 1st of August is pretty grim. The swell picks up again on the 1st, but it comes with strong, lumpy cross-onshore wind, turning the ocean into a mess.

Then, brace yourselves. The 3rd of August brings another massive pulse of S swell, hitting 10ft with combined energy over (4379). Again, completely maxed out for this break. It’s a beautiful, clean swell but too big to handle without serious consequences. The following days, the 4th and 5th, are still bumpy and messy.

Looking further out to the second week, the energy drops right off. The 6th of August serves up tiny 3ft SSW groundswell. The wind is offshore, so if you’re a beginner looking for foam, it’s clean, but there's barely any push. The 7th brings a tiny bump with an incredibly long 19-second period – that’s super long period groundswell, which on a reef can be beautiful but very fickle. It’s a long shot.

The final days from the 8th to the 10th of August are a write-off thanks to strong to gale-force cross-off winds kicking up a horrible chop, even if the swell is small. There's a small window on the 10th with a 6ft SSW groundswell and fresh offshore wind, but the power is still moderate and the wind is strong, making it a challenge.

So, what’s the call? If you’ve got the skills, that Sunday the 26th is the standout for pure power and show, but it’s only for the brave. The real winner for the average surfer is Thursday the 30th of July. It’s not the biggest, but it’s the cleanest, glassiest window with a proper groundswell. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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