Fausse Passe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto. Fausse Passe. A tricky little joint, and this outlook has a lot of waiting in it. The first week is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing, unless you're after a battle, not a session. The real potential only starts to show its face around the middle of the second week.

Let's get stuck in. Today, Saturday the 4th of July, we're looking at a 4 ft SE swell at 11 seconds. That's not a terrible size, and the water's a pleasant 74°—about average for this time of year. The wind's holding cross-offshore from the ESE at 9 mph, which has the surface clean. But the energy feels messing with the tide, and the forecast is basically saying it's a marginal call. You'd be gambling on a window. Sunday the 5th holds similar size, but the period jumps to a nice 13 seconds. Still, the moderate cross-shore wind on Sunday afternoon will start to mess with the lines. The energy is building though—moderate with readings in the 500-600 range.

Then, from Monday the 6th through to Friday the 10th, forget it. Swell jumps way up, pushing 8 ft to 13 ft, but it's accompanied by fresh onshore winds from the SSW to SW. We're talking 15-19 mph winds and lumpy, choppy conditions. The energy gets strong to very strong—hitting 14,112 on Tuesday morning—but for what? It's a mess. This is kite-surfing territory, not a surfer's playground. Even a 6 ft SSW push on Monday afternoon with 19 mph rain showers is just ugly.

The first *real* glimpse of something decent comes on Saturday the 11th. The swell drops to a more manageable 7 ft to 8 ft from the SSW at 12 seconds. The wind goes light, 6-9 mph from the south, crossing the wave face. It's marginal according to the charts, but that light cross-shore with small wind ripples is a lot better than what's been on offer. The energy is still moderate to strong (1,500-1,900 range), so there's push.

Then Sunday the 12th is your standout session for the first part of the forecast. The morning is clean, with a 6 ft S swell at 10 seconds and a light cross-offshore breeze from the ESE at 9 mph. The energy is moderate (972). It won't be perfect—the period is short—but it's rideable and the surface will be smooth. The afternoon drops a touch and gets more wind, so keep it to the early.

After a few days of tiny, wind-affected junk, the real prize comes at the very back end. This is a classic long-range tease. On Saturday the 18th, the swell starts to nudge up—3 ft from the SSW, but the period is big—18 to 20 seconds. That's proper groundswell energy. The wind is a clean cross-off from the ESE. The combined energy is strong (1,124 for the afternoon). This one breaks best for a reef break like Fausse Passe—those long-period lines need a defined take-off.

But the absolute pick of the whole 16 days is Sunday the 19th. Look at this: a clean 5 ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period in the morning. The wind is a perfect light 6 mph ESE cross-off. The energy is strong at 1,027. The forecast even calls it "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is the one to circle. The afternoon holds at 5 ft with a 15-second period. There will be long, clean lines, nice power, and a forgiving size. If the crowds show up (and they can at Fausse Passe on a Sunday like that), the consistency will likely make a few waves yours anyway. This is the best wave on offer, full stop.

So, the play: head out early Sunday the 12th for a warm-up. Then, light the candles for Sunday the 19th. That is the session.

Rusty.

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