Fausse Passe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's look at what's coming our way.

Right off the bat, I gotta say, it's a slow start. The first few days here are pretty flat and ugly. There's a gap of about four days before anything truly worth paddling out for shows up. You'll see a tiny pulse of energy on Wednesday the 12th with a glassy morning, but the swell is barely a ripple at 1ft from the SW. That afternoon is glassy too, but it's even smaller. Honestly, unless you're desperate to get wet on a longboard, it's not worth the paddle.

The first real sign of life shows up on Saturday the 15th. We get a jump to 5ft swell from the SSW with a clean cross-off breeze. The swell period is only 9 seconds though, so it's going to be a bit soft and bumpy on the face, not the kind of lined-up, proper wave you'd want. The combined swell energy is still moderate at 594. It's surfable, but it's not going to blow your mind.

Now, for the standout of the entire outlook. That's Sunday the 16th. We see a solid 5ft SSW groundswell hitting with a period of 17 seconds (very long period). This is the real deal, folks. The combined swell energy jumps to a strong 1738 reading. The cross-off breeze keeps it clean. At Fausse Passe (a reef break that is consistent), this long-period SW groundswell is going to wrap in nicely and produce some proper, powerful waves. The water temp is 72°, which is dead average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Just be aware, with a swell this size (5ft), it's pushing into the zone where it starts getting a bit much for beginners, and that long period means the sets will have some punch. Crowds are listed as "sometimes," so you can expect a few others out there with the same idea.

The following week looks promising on paper but comes with heavy wind. From Monday the 17th into the end of the week, we're seeing 4ft to 8ft SSW/SSE swells with clean cross-off winds, but the wind speeds are cranking from 22 to 28 mph. That’s a fresh to strong breeze. While the waves might be clean-looking, that kind of wind will make paddling out a battle and the surface might get a bit bumpy. Wednesday the 19th morning shows the biggest swell of the whole period at 8ft with an 11-second period and a massive combined energy of 2842. That's serious, powerful surf. But at that size, it's for experienced surfers only, and with that wind, it's going to be a challenging, wild day. This setup honestly looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

After that, the swell hangs around but the wind turns ugly. From Saturday the 22nd onwards, we’re into cross-shore and cross-on winds, and the whole thing just gets choppy and messy. There's nothing to recommend in that last week.

So, to wrap it up: the week starts flat, gets going on the 16th (Sunday) which is your best bet, then turns into a windy, powerful mess for the big-wave crew. But if you only get one session, make it Sunday the 16th at Fausse Passe.

Rusty

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