Fausse Passe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a single spot on the radar for this 16-day stretch: Fausse Passe. It’s a reef break, so it handles swell well, but the pattern is a bit of a slow burn. The first few days are a write-off—nothing happening until the 11th of July, but even then, it’s a mixed bag. The standout is way down the line, so keep the patience tank full.

Right now, the water’s sitting at 73°, which is bang on average for the time of year. No surprises there.

The action starts Saturday morning, July 11th, with a solid 6.2ft swell from the south, coming in at a long 12 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and the combined energy is pumping at 1798. The wind is a light 6 mph cross-off, keeping things clean. It’s a big wave, over 5ft, so this is for experienced surfers only. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have some company, but it’s not a circus. The swell direction is south, and the optimum is SW, so it’s a touch off, but the quality is still there. This is the best on offer in the first week. The afternoon drops off quickly with a 4.6ft, and the wind picks up to 16 mph, making it marginal.

Sunday, July 12th, the swell drops to 2.6ft to 3ft, still with long periods (18 seconds). The energy is still moderate (848), but the wind is moderate cross-off, and the scores are low. The waves are too small and weak to get excited about. From Monday, July 13th, through to Thursday, July 16th, it’s a real lull. Swell hangs around 2ft to 3.6ft, with energy dropping to as low as 149. The wind is moderate to fresh cross-off, but it’s poor surf—just not enough push. This is a gap of several days with nothing to recommend.

Friday, July 17th, the swell starts to build again, with 3.6ft to 5.9ft, but the wind is messy—cross, then cross-on. The 5.9ft in the afternoon has a 12-second period and 984 energy, but the light cross-on wind spoils it. It’s marginal.

The real tease comes on Saturday, July 18th, with a 4.9ft to 5.6ft swell from the SSW, 12-second period, and energy climbing to 1116. The wind is a clean cross-off, but the scores are still only marginal. Sunday, July 19th, sees a jump to 7.5ft in the afternoon, with 2299 energy. That’s getting big, but the wind is fresh cross-off at 19 mph, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. It’s a powerful, messy setup—more for the adrenaline junkies.

Monday, July 20th, is a similar story: 7.5ft to 7.9ft, strong energy (2459), and clean cross-off wind. The swell is over 8ft, so this is experts-only territory. The period is 10-11 seconds, which is short for the size, meaning the waves will be a bit lumpy. It’s still a good option for the experienced, but it’s not the best.

The next few days, July 21st to 23rd, fade back to 3.9ft to 5.6ft, with energy dropping. The wind stays cross-off, but it’s marginal at best.

Now, the true standout. July 24th, Friday morning. The swell hits 9.8ft from the SSW, with a 13-second period and energy at 2796. That’s a big, powerful groundswell. The wind is a glassy 6 mph offshore, which is a major positive. The only issue: the swell is 9.8ft, which is too big for even this reef break. The file says it’s too big for this break, so it’s a spectacle, not a surf session. This is a week away, so it’s promising but less certain.

The weekend of July 25th and 26th is the real sweet spot. Saturday, July 25th, has 6.9ft in the morning, dropping to 6.2ft in the afternoon, with a 12-second period and 1474 energy. The wind is light offshore at 6 mph, shifting to a slight cross-off breeze. That’s clean, glassy conditions with a solid swell. The direction is SSW, straight into the optimum. This is the best on offer—a proper session for the experienced crew. Sunday, July 26th, brings a 6.6ft to 7.9ft swell with a very long 17-second period and massive energy at 3093. The wind is a gentle to moderate cross-off. The long period means the waves will have serious power and shape, but at a beach break, it might break too straight. At this reef, it’ll be lined up. The sizes are over 8ft on Sunday afternoon, so that’s a big one.

Overall, the first week is a slow start with a few decent windows for experienced surfers. The second week, from July 24th onwards, has the real size

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