Copa (Bull Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The ocean’s been a bit of a tease these last couple weeks. We’ve got a run of small, short-period ESE swell rolling in, but the wind’s been messing with it. It’s not going to be pretty out there for a while.

The Overall Picture

The next couple of weeks are looking pretty tough for surfing. We have waves, but they’re mostly in that 4 to 6 ft range, coming from the ESE with a short period of 7 to 8 seconds. That’s not the kind of swell that’s going to bowl over a reef. And with the cross-onshore breeze messing up the surface, most days are going to be a struggle, to be honest.

The combined energy is mostly weak to moderate, sitting in the 100s and low 200s, though there’s a pulse of moderate energy (521) on the 22nd and a moderate to strong push (672) on the 20th. But even with that energy, the short period and wind are going to keep things lumpy.

It’s a blank run for most of the period, with very little to get excited about. The first two days have some marginal conditions, but after that, the window to get a decent wave just slams shut until, at the earliest, the 22nd, before fading out again.

The Day-by-Day

We’re starting things off on Tuesday, the 15th. Early morning has some clouds with light cross-on winds, and there’s a 5 ft ESE swell with a low period of 8 seconds. The water’s sitting at 85°, which is about normal for this time of year. It’s the best it’s going to be, but it’s still pretty marginal. The swell energy is moderate (521), but that wind is not your friend.

From the 16th all the way through the 21st, it’s a tough stretch. The swell stays around that 4 ft to 5 ft mark, the period stays short, and the cross-on wind doesn’t let up. We’re looking at poor surf conditions and a lot of wanting to be somewhere else.

Now, we do have that bump on the 22nd. Tuesday morning brings a 6 ft swell with moderate energy (522). The period is still a short 7 seconds, but the wind is only a light cross-on. This is probably the standout of the whole stretch – it might have a little bit of push to it. But it’s not going to be clean perfection. It’s a small window of opportunity before the wind picks up again in the afternoon.

After that, the 23rd and 24th are back to poor conditions. The swell drops back down to 5 ft and then to 4 ft, and the period is weakening. The wind stays out of the ESE. From the 25th right through to the 30th, it’s just crazy small. We’re talking 4 ft to 4 ft of weak, short-period swell with the wind constantly on it. The energy drops into the 100s and low 200s. There is absolutely nothing to get excited about.

The water on the 15th is about 85°, which is normal for this time of year, but that’s the only thing that isn't causing problems.

So, in a nutshell, there is not a lot on the cards. If you’re a beginner, the 4 ft days are manageable size-wise, but the bumpy, cross-onshore conditions are going to make it frustrating.

The one to keep an eye on is the 22nd. That slight bump in size and energy, combined with the lighter morning wind, is the only real glimmer of hope in this whole 16-day window. It’s not a great bet, but it’s the only one we’ve got. Don't hold your breath for the rest of it.

Rusty.

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