This image shows only the swells directed at Pauanui Beach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical April and is based upon 1638 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 12% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal April but 9% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 9%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Pauanui Beach is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Pauanui Beach about 12% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 27% of the time. This is means that we expect 12 days with waves in a typical April, of which 4 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.