Morro Negrito Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Morro Negrito that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal March. It is based on 2220 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NNE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 76% of the time, equivalent to 24 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal March but 11% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 11%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Morro Negrito is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Morro Negrito about 76% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 24% of the time. This is means that we expect 31 days with waves in a typical March, of which 24 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.