Morro Negrito Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Morro Negrito that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical March and is based upon 1724 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the N. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 80% of the time, equivalent to 25 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal March but 14% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 14%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Morro Negrito is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Morro Negrito about 80% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 20% of the time. This is means that we expect 31 days with waves in a typical March, of which 25 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.