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Mitchell's Cove ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Mitchell's Cove Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Mitchell's Cove that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October and is based upon 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 13% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Mitchell's Cove is quite sheltered from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Mitchell's Cove about 13% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 33% of the time. This is means that we expect 14 days with waves in a typical October, of which 4 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.