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Mahai'ula Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.2

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Surf Report Feed

Mahai'ula Bay Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Mahai'ula Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NNE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 4% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Mahai'ula Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Mahai'ula Bay about 4% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 4% of the time. This is means that we expect 2 days with waves in a typical October, of which 1 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.