Lincoln City Nelscott Reef Swell Statistics, January: All Swell – Any Wind
This chart illustrates the range of swells directed at Lincoln City Nelscott Reef through an average January and is based upon 1480 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Lincoln City Nelscott Reef. In this particular case the best grid node is 38 km away (24 miles).
The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These happened only 3% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the S. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Lincoln City Nelscott Reef and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Lincoln City Nelscott Reef, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical January, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Lincoln City Nelscott Reef run for about 97% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.