La Pastora Swell Statistics, September: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at La Pastora that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal September. It is based on 2286 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 29% of the time, equivalent to 9 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal September but 14% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 14%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that La Pastora is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at La Pastora about 29% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 68% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical September, of which 9 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.