La Pastora Swell Statistics, September: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at La Pastora that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical September. It is based on 2400 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 28% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal September but 13% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 13%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that La Pastora is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at La Pastora about 28% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 69% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical September, of which 8 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.