La Jolla Shores Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind
The graph illustrates the combination of swells directed at La Jolla Shores through a typical northern hemisphere summer. It is based on 7266 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about La Jolla Shores, and at La Jolla Shores the best grid node is 28 km away (17 miles).
The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These happened only 75% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from La Jolla Shores and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at La Jolla Shores, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average northern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at La Jolla Shores run for about 25% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.