La Jolla Shores Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind
This chart illustrates the range of swells directed at La Jolla Shores over a normal northern hemisphere summer and is based upon 5802 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about La Jolla Shores. In this particular case the best grid node is 28 km away (17 miles).
The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 77% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from La Jolla Shores and away from the coast. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at La Jolla Shores, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at La Jolla Shores run for about 23% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.