This image shows only the swells directed at Kaisers that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical May. It is based on 1488 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was S, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 20% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal May. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Kaisers is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Kaisers about 20% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 38% of the time. This is means that we expect 18 days with waves in a typical May, of which 6 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.