This image shows only the swells directed at Fernandina Beach Pier that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November. It is based on 1680 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the N. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 21% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal November. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Fernandina Beach Pier is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Fernandina Beach Pier about 21% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 55% of the time. This is means that we expect 23 days with waves in a typical November, of which 6 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.