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Elliot Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.2
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 3.3
Crowds: 4.2

Overall: 3.4

See all 18 ratings

Based on 4 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Elliot Bay Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart shows the variation of swells directed at Elliot Bay through a typical southern hemisphere autumn, based on 6580 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Elliot Bay. In the case of Elliot Bay, the best grid node is 31 km away (19 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred only 20% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the S. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Elliot Bay and away from the coast. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Elliot Bay, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average southern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Elliot Bay run for about 80% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.