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El Mongol ratings
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 3.2

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Surf Report Feed

El Mongol Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at El Mongol that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 8476 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NNE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 32% of the time, equivalent to 29 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 1.5% of the time in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, equivalent to just one day but 14% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 14%, equivalent to (13 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that El Mongol is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at El Mongol about 32% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 43% of the time. This is means that we expect 68 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, of which 29 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.