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El Mongol ratings
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 3.2

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Surf Report Feed

El Mongol Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at El Mongol that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 8724 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 32% of the time, equivalent to 29 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 1.5% of the time in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, equivalent to just one day but 14% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 14%, equivalent to (13 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that El Mongol is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at El Mongol about 32% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 43% of the time. This is means that we expect 68 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, of which 29 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.