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Church Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 1.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0

Overall: 2.7

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Church Bay Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart describes the variation of swells directed at Church Bay through an average northern hemisphere winter, based on 5491 NWW3 model predictions since 2008 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Church Bay. In the case of Church Bay, the best grid node is 15 km away (9 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These happened only 72% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Church Bay and out to sea. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Church Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Church Bay run for about 13% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.