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Church Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.5
Consistency of Surf: 2.5
Difficulty Level: 2.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 2.0
Crowds: 5.0

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Church Bay Swell Statistics, January: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart shows the range of swells directed at Church Bay through an average January. It is based on 2132 NWW3 model predictions since 2009 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Church Bay, and at Church Bay the best grid node is 15 km away (9 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 74% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Church Bay and out to sea. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Church Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical January, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Church Bay run for about 14% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.