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Church Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.5
Consistency of Surf: 2.5
Difficulty Level: 2.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 2.0
Crowds: 5.0

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Church Bay Swell Statistics, February: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure shows the combination of swells directed at Church Bay through a typical February. It is based on 1984 NWW3 model predictions since 2009 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coast so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Church Bay. In this particular case the best grid node is 15 km away (9 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 75% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Church Bay and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Church Bay, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average February, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Church Bay run for about 8% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.