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Church Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.5
Consistency of Surf: 2.5
Difficulty Level: 2.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 2.0
Crowds: 5.0

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Church Bay Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart illustrates the range of swells directed at Church Bay through an average northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 7009 NWW3 model predictions since 2008 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Church Bay. In this particular case the best grid node is 15 km away (9 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 76% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Church Bay and away from the coast. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Church Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Church Bay run for about 10% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.