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Church Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 1.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0

Overall: 2.7

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Surf Report Feed

Church Bay Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Church Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 5491 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere winter. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Church Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Church Bay about 0% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 13% of the time. This is means that we expect 12 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 0 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.