Awakino River Mouth Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind
This picture describes the combination of swells directed at Awakino River Mouth over a normal southern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 6580 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Awakino River Mouth, and at Awakino River Mouth the best grid node is 21 km away (13 miles).
The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 6% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WSW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Awakino River Mouth and out to sea. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Awakino River Mouth, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical southern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Awakino River Mouth run for about 28% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.