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Avalon-North ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 3.3

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Surf Report Feed

Avalon-North Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

This image shows the range of swells directed at Avalon-North through a typical southern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 8052 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Avalon-North. In the case of Avalon-North, the best grid node is 21 km away (13 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 55% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was E, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SSW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Avalon-North and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Avalon-North, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average southern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Avalon-North run for about 20% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.