Apollo Bay Swell Statistics, January: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apollo Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical January and is based upon 2372 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 38% of the time, equivalent to 12 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 7% of the time (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Apollo Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Apollo Bay about 38% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 57% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical January, of which 12 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.