Apollo Bay Swell Statistics, December: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apollo Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal December. It is based on 2457 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 48% of the time, equivalent to 14 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 10% of the time (3 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Apollo Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Apollo Bay about 48% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 45% of the time. This is means that we expect 28 days with waves in a typical December, of which 14 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.