Andrew Molera State Park Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Andrew Molera State Park that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the N. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 54% of the time, equivalent to 49 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 6% of the time (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Andrew Molera State Park is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Andrew Molera State Park about 54% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 45% of the time. This is means that we expect 90 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 49 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.