Andrew Molera State Park Swell Statistics, May: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Andrew Molera State Park that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical May. It is based on 2200 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW (which was the same as the prevailing wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 18% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal May but 8% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 8%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Andrew Molera State Park is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Andrew Molera State Park about 18% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 65% of the time. This is means that we expect 26 days with waves in a typical May, of which 6 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.