All Day Bay Swell Statistics, May: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at All Day Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical May. It is based on 2200 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 39% of the time, equivalent to 12 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only happen 2% of the time in a typical May, equivalent to just one day but 11% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 11%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that All Day Bay is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at All Day Bay about 39% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 30% of the time. This is means that we expect 21 days with waves in a typical May, of which 12 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.